1200 GMT April 30, 2004
Siege of Fallujah Lifted
·
Agencies including AFP and CNN report US troops are moving out of
south Fallujah: by the end of the day only about 80 troops will be left and
they too will leave. Wire is being taken down and earthen berms blocking
highways are being bulldozed.
·
This may seem to be in line with what we reported yesterday. But -
reports also speak of the north Fallujah siege being lifted after the south
side. The north side is where the foreign fighters and die-hard Saddam
loyalists are. This would invalidate our analysis below.
·
At the same time, we may not be wrong. The Fallujah Protection
Force, now said to have an upper estimate of 1100 men under a former Republican
Guard major-general, is getting set to restoring order inside the city. The
foreigners have no interest in any such thing. The FPF has two choices: go
after the foreign fighters itself, or negotiate a live-and-let alive
arrangement. We do not see how either course is possible. FPF is at this time
simply a hastily organized militia, built - we suspect - around an
understrength Iraq Army battalion and ICDC battalions recruited in Anbar
Province. They lack the training, firepower, and leadership to go after foreign
militants who may outnumber them 2-1. Conversely, the US will not accept a
large contingent of foreign fighters moving freely around the city.
·
So what is going on? Our analysis as of this time is that [1] the
US has bought valuable credits in the court of Iraqi and world opinion by
lifting the siege and letting the Iraqis themselves handle security; [2] when
action against the militants begin, the US forces will "support" the
FPF and the action will be billed as an Iraqi offensive. Actually the Marines
will do most of the fighting. even if all American troops are out of Fallujah,
they can be back at the city center within 2-4 hours if they need to be.
·
Meanwhile, indications are that negotiations are very much in
progress at Najaf. The latest theory is that Al-Sadr's men will disarm, the US
will promise not to enter Najaf, and Al-Sadr will either stay under clerical
protection or be allowed to proceed to some place where he will be safe for the
time being - this is the same deal as an Arab media source reported about two
weeks ago.
0300 GMT April 30, 2004
Good News Behind the Bad News
·
AFP and other agencies say that even as it denies it is lifting the
seize of Fallujah, US Marines are withdrawing as of today from the southern
side of the city. They are handing over control to a new Fallujah Protection
Force - no one has heard of it till today, just another mystery to be worked
put. And people say the Americans cant keep secrets. Interestingly, a former
veteran Saddam general will lead the force: we'd be safe to assume he is a
Sunni. Other reports say four reinstated generals were among those in Fallujah
for negotiations.
·
A CNN story makes apparent what has been happening, except the story
has the timeframe wrong. It says that ex-Saddam generals volunteered to go to
Fallujah and raise a force of between 600-1000 from former police and soldiers
to take over from the US. Apparently the process has been going for some days.
Getting a few hundred hard-core Sunni soldiers back into the army will make a
good start in ending the alienation felt by the Sunnis.
·
Orbat.com Analysis The move comes at a time the US has been
leaking information that the Fallujah buildup/encirclement is complete and troops
are waiting only the go-ahead for the final offensive. US spokespersons are
right: the withdrawal from South Fallujah only means more Marines are now
available for the offensive. What the news media has unintentionally mostly
obscured is that except for the northern industrial zone, Falluja has been
quiet since the cease fire was announced. The trouble has been coming from
this one particular part of the city, and that is where the 1500-2000 foreign
fighters are located. [The numbers are higher than those used before and show
the US has better information.] The impression that the news has conveyed is
that fighting has been going on all around Fallujah. Presumably in the interest
of operational security, the US has not - till now - been correcting the general
impression of Fallujah in flames. We do not know for a fact, but suspect that
the Marines have been getting as many civilians as possible out of the area so
that it is going to become a free-fire zone. The enthusiasm with which the US
has been unleashing heavy weapons in the northern part of the city indicates,
to us at least, that the US is reasonably satisfied inordinate civilian
casualties will not be caused by the offensive. Today aircraft dropped 6 guided
bombs on two buildings used by snipers, AC-130s and SuperCobras have been in
action for the last several days.
·
Now what we'd like to know is what's happening in Najaf. There has
been a news blackout, intentional or otherwise, from the area. All we know is
that US troops seized a checkpoint on the Najaf-Aufa road from Al-Sadr's men;
this means not only that a confrontation has already taken place, but that the
US continues to surround Najaf. No more Friday show times for Al-Sadr at the
Aufa mosque.
·
Orbat.com gives itself a pat on the back: the Washington Times
today carries a story which makes evident the US has been conducting
reconnaissances by fire in the northern suburbs, confirming our speculation of
yesterday. And the Marines have been quite aggressive about the process all
while blaming the insurgents for starting the fighting. The insurgents are
stupid enough that probably at times they have been starting the fighting. But
what does that mean? A lone sniper fires a single shot, or a charged up
insurgent fires off an AK-47 magazine at nothing in particular. We doubt the
Marines are even waiting for that single shot. The Washington Times story
clears up something that has puzzled your editor for days: it is not like the
Marines or the US Army to passively sit around for weeks waiting for negotiations.
The "negotiations" were highly successful - with the native people of
Fallujah who are now out of the loop. Meanwhile the US has been pressing
forward every time. This is one reason Marine commanders say when the end
comes, it will be very quickly.
·
The War on Terror has at least one proof of its success: CNN
reports that a US State Department report says that global terrorist
attacks are at their lowest point in 30 years. The US does not count attacks
against its combatants as acts of terror, and this is only fair.
·
Orbat.com correspondent Keith Loescher sends a correction: the five
howitzers at US ski resorts that are being recalled to service are the
lightweight towed 105mm M-119s [not as your editor read it, M-109s].
0315 GMT April 29, 2004
·
AFP says an AC-130 attacked targets in Fallujah Wednesday night,
again setting off big secondary explosions. US troops interdict the Kufa-Najaf
road by moving into a base the Spanish are vacating.
·
CENTCOM says [KCAL TV, Los Angeles, CA] Fallujah is surrounded and
there are 1500 insurgents, mostly foreigners, in the city. [Thanks to reader
Jose joseag238] Orbat.com wonders if one of the reasons the Marines accepted a
ceasefire was to gain time to determine the number of fighters in Fallujah. One
technique is reconnaissance by fire. This is purely speculation on our part,
but it may account for what we have assumed is the fighters' stupidity in
repeatedly attacking Marine positions only to get wiped out. Maybe it isn't the
fighters doing the attacking in all cases.
·
Agencies say Muslim youths attacked 15 Thai police stations,
village defense posts, and other targets in an attempt to gain access to
weapons. The Muslim dominated south has claimed of discrimination on the part
of Bangkok. The police were tipped off and were waiting in ambush: 107
attackers were killed, plus 5 Thai security personnel. 32 attackers alone were
killed when they too shelter in a mosque during the fighting and Thai security
forces attacked the mosque. The Muslim young men seemed to have few firearms,
if any, being in the main armed with machetes. A Thai commander said the young
men were high on drugs.
·
News of the Absurd Reader George Fescos sends an AP report that
the US Army is requisitioning five M-119A 155mm howitzers it had lent to two
American ski resorts because of the needs of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars. The
howitzers are used to blast loose snow off ski hillsides, thus reducing the
chance of avalanche. Orbat.com confesses to being dumbstruck for once. No
snappy comments, because we can't even imagine what the US Army is doing or
thinking. The howitzers must be in the battle theatre in 60-90 days.
·
More News of the Absurd CNN reports that "In a brazen
display in Fallujah, insurgents are distributing posters in Arabic and English
offering a $15 million reward to anyone who kills Rumsfeld, commander of
coalition forces Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez or U.S. Army spokesman Brig. Gen.
Mark Kimmitt." We already know the insurgents have little by way of
strategic thinking skills, and to imagine any one is going to get near enough
to kill these three gentlemen is mildly absurd. The insurgents are safe in
offering the money; it will never have to be paid. If the insurgents are to
grandstand, why waste time and money on poor Mr. Rumsfeld, who will go down in
the history books for Rummy Speak - "There are things we know, things we
think we know, things that we don't know, and things that we don't know we
don't know" [This is a recollection from memory, but what a marvelous
statement. Correct words welcomed if any one can take the trouble to send them
to us.] Moreover, it must be horribly deflating for Mr. Rumsfeld to be equated
with a mere one-star general who is the US spokesperson in Iraq. Alternately,
if a simple spokesperson can drive the insurgents to the crazy point where they
offer top dollar for his head, maybe the US has found yet another tool for its
PyschWar inventory.]
0245 GMT April 28, 2004
·
AFP reports US says 64 insurgents killed in Najaf fighting,
including 57 men around an anti-aircraft gun. AC-130 fires 20-25 105mm rounds
in Fallujah, triggering two big secondary explosions, after US Marines came
under fire.
·
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, who we admire greatly [seriously],
continues to drive us nuts with his micro management. Newsweek makes very
serious allegations that at this time there are only 70 M-1 tanks in Iraq, the
rest having been deployed back; the Marines did not bring their tanks to Iraq;
the 1st Cavalry Division, which is actually a tank division, has arrived
without 80+% of its AFVs. Why? Because of Mr. Rumsfeld's insistence of light
forces backed by airpower. The problem, Newsweek says, is the US is losing men
in Humvees that are not armored, often the armor does not stop even AK-47
rounds, field fixes added by the troops increase the weight of the vehicle,
causing engine and transmission breakdowns. While US plants are turning out
armor for 500 Humvees a month, the difficulty is that the Humvee is not an IFV.
It is a very good upgraded jeep.
·
The field commanders have asked for more Stryker vehicles, but
Newsweek says Washington hasn't come to grips with the issue. Moreover,
Stryker is not sufficiently armored or maneuverable for street fighting: only
the Bradley IFV can do the job. The US Army tacitly admits as much, because
Strykers have been sent to Mosul, which is a relatively trouble-free area
compared to other parts of the country.
·
Newsweek tells us Rumsfeld has quietly authorized the airlift of 28
more M-1s to Iraq. That makes a hundred, enough for 6 companies assuming
minimal maintenance reserves. Anyone in the Pentagon looked at the size of Iraq
lately?
·
What we don't understand is, where is the US Congress? Where is the
US press? The military men cannot speak out regardless of what idiotic mistakes
the Pentagon is making? Why is no one forcing Mr. Rumsfeld to face the reality
that two more divisions are needed? Its been a year now since this became
apparent, nothing is being done.
·
An Indian reader tells us India was willing to send 17,000 troops
to Iraq. Moreover, these men are not fresh recruits off the peacetime parade
ground as are so many contingents from Europe and elsewhere. These are long
service professionals with more CI experience than any army in the world.
These troops were not dispatched because, New Delhi says, the request did
not come through the UN and the troops cannot serve under the US flag. Our
reader says that certainly was a major consideration. The real reason, he says,
is that while Washington is willing to spend enormous amounts of effort wooing
Pakistan and every little country in the world, it was unwilling to make any
concessions or offers to India that would compensate for the inevitable
downside of troops were dispatched. There is no reason India cannot send even
50,000 troops to Iraq, our reader says. That would mean Washington firmly
telling Pakistan it is now merely an outlying province of the American empire,
and telling India it is a valuable ally. Washington would rather commit hari
kiri than do that. Where are the Pakistani troops in Iraq, if Pakistan is such
a major ally? Pakistan has deployed 70,000 troops to hunt the Al Qaeda/Taliban?
[Orbat.com comment: it has deployed 20,000; the other troops were permanently
stationed in the area; further, once Afghanistan fell to an anti-Pakistan
government, the troops would be needed anyway to protect the border.]
Apparently the Indians are not impressed. They say who created the Taliban and
made it possible for Al Qaeda to roost in Afghanistan? None other than Pakistan.
·
[Orbat.com disclaimer We are not an "Indian"
magazine. Aside from the editor, there are exactly 3 other Indians who work
with Orbat.com and its affiliates. We have five Pakistanis working with us.
India has 7 times Pakistan's population, so purely on a "balance
basis", we should have 35 Indians. Also, 132 others who work with us are
neither Indian nor Pakistani. We are not even based in India, but in the US.
Further, the biggest Indian website has done its best to discourage members from
working with us. Anyone is entitled to put their viewpoint across in Orbat.com.
We are neither pro- nor anti- anyone. Yes, we are against Islamic
fundamentalists, tyrants, and murderous rulers because so many of these people
are working against - the United States.]
·
AFP says the Libyan President, Mr. M. Gadaffi, is visiting Europe
for the first time in 15 years and urging other to follow his example in giving
up WMD.
·
Its been difficult for us to keep tracks of who is coming or going
in Iraq because the numbers are so tiny. Thailand joins the list of those who
want to go home. Georgia will more than triple its forces in Iraq. Australia is
willing to boost is 850 man force, but warns the deployment cannot be sustained
for an extended period. UK first said to be planning more troops, but now says
field commanders say no more are needed. Orbat.com comment The Rumsfeld
Syndrome is spreading. We always believed the British were sensible about their
wars. Hopefully this is a temporary infection. A British 3-brigade division is
required, not the 1.5 brigade equivalent present.
[2nd Update]
·
US forces fought a battle outside Najaf with insurgents who
attacked them, 43 insurgents said killed, not US casualties reported as yet.
·
Troops that are inside Najaf are from 2/37th Armor.
·
US reemphasizes it has not intention of fighting inside Najaf;
while leaving the way open for Al-Sadr to face justice at the hands of his own
people and for allowing him to participate in the political process, US has
also said else "we will grind him into the dirt". How much the open
door is actual policy and how much is psychological action is impossible for us
to say.
·
Reports are that US troops who raided a building in Sadr City,
Baghdad [2 US soldiers killed, several wounded] included WMD personnel.
0330 GMT April 27, 2004
Najaf: US Troops Move Knight to B4
·
Agencies report that what to us appears to be a reinforced
mechanized company moved into a base within Najaf city limits, to prevent the
base from falling into insurgent hands after Spanish forces completed their
withdrawal. Though US forces have the city surrounded, this is the first time
in the recent crisis they have entered the city proper, and just 6 km from the
shrines at that. The US announced its intent to ratchet up military,
psychological, and economic measures against Al-Sadr. [Of course, the
announcement is itself part of the pysch war.] Al-Sadr vows the usual sea of
fire, suicide attacks, etc.
·
Orbat.com opinion is that Al-Sadr's ability to organize suicide
attacks is limited, as this is not an Iraqi tactic. We could speculate much on
what the US expects the outcome of the move to be, but presently would like to
confine ourselves to a few thoughts. We feel the US is testing the waters - as chess
knights often do. If there is no major reaction from the clerics, the US will
stay and wait for an opportunity to make the next jump. Otherwise the US will
back off. This arrival of US troops, we suspect, is as much intended as a
message to the clerics who have been trying to straddle both sides of the fence
on the Al-Sadr issue. The message, we assume is: "Sort out Al-Sadr your
way and claim the full credit. Else we'll sort him out ourselves, you may not
like the outcome, and you'll lose a chance to play the cards we're handing you.
Please understand at this time we have no information on the move, and it
simply may be a defensive move to forestall Al-Sadr from occupying Spanish
positions.
·
Agency reports from Fallujah say that insurgents attacked a US
position in Fallujah from a mosque. Eight insurgents and one marine were
killed. [Note to ourselves: since there is an Army brigade in the area, we must
be more careful when automatically translating the foreign press's references
to soldiers as meaning marines.] No less an official than US Secretary of State
Powell says diplomacy will be given a chance in Fallujah.
·
CNN reports Jordanian security forces seize 20 tons of chemicals in
Amman that was to be used within days to produce a toxic cloud that would be
more deadly than 9/11. US officials are not so sure about the toxic cloud
theory: we agree with them because dispersing chemicals and getting them on
target is not exactly a low-tech venture. US officials say the chemicals could
have been used to produce giant explosions. Three vehicles with plows to smash
through security barriers were also found, lending credence to the US theory.
Jordanian Intelligence HQ is said to be one of the targets. Two men appeared on
Jordan TV to admit to the plot and its Al-Qaeda sponsors. They look remarkably
fit, clean, and composed, so possibly they are a part of a Jordanian
disinformation campaign, for example, they might be working on the
"plot" for Jordanian Intelligence; or the pictures were taken before
their interrogation began.
·
Umm Qasar Suicide Boat Story From a reader who we
presume is in the Hampton Roads, VA area, we learn the following [direct
quote]:
Two sailors killed Saturday in Iraq were part of the Hampton
Roads-based crew assigned to the USS Firebolt. [They] were killed when suicide
attackers detonated explosive-laden boats near oil facilities in the Persian
Gulf on Saturday.
In Saturday's attack, military officials say it was approximately 6:00pm (local
Iraqi time) when the coalition naval personnel observed an unidentified dhow
approaching the Iraqi Khawr Al Amaya Oil Terminal in the northern Arabian Gulf.
In accordance with standard security procedures,
coalition Maritime Interception Operations forces approached the unidentified
dhow for inspection. As the seven-member boarding team approached the dhow in
their RHIB, the dhow exploded, killing the two sailors and tossing the rest of
the boarding team - three sailors and two coast guardsmen - into the
water....One of the coast guardsmen [later died].
Reminder to suicide bombers: this is not the ill-trained,
demoralized, and badly armed Iraqi security forces you are dealing with. Have
you not learned to avoid these silly stunts when you're opposed by first-class
fighters? It would have been almost a miracle if any of you made it past the
naval patrols. By the way, you did not "disable" the terminal even
for a minute, leave alone the 24 hours some media credit you with. The terminal
was shut down as a precaution against further attacks. With the all clear, it took
some time to get everything back to normal functioning. True, you did take 3
American sailors with you. But this is not going to happen again: the patrol
ships are simply going to sink unidentified vessels first and ask
questions later.
1115 GMT April
26, 2004
·
CNN reports fresh fighting Fallujah but provides no details. US
extends to Tuesday deadline for heavy weapons handover, saying it wants to give
the political process another chance. Joint Iraqi-US patrols are to start
Tuesday. From the CNN report, we learn there is at least one media person with
the Marines. In that case, we are forced to assume that any media people with
the Marines are under orders to avoid sending any details - and we have had
very few for the last weeks. We wonder if any reader has seen mention of such a
strict policy in other media sources? It is unlike the US media, at least, to
not squawk when such tough reporting restrictions are imposed.
·
AFP says that 3 US Navy sailors are now confirmed dead when they
intercepted three suicide boats heading for oil facilities - presumably at Umm
Qasar - and not two as was originally said. apparently the third sailor died of
wounds. Our report that they tried to board one of the craft may have been
incorrect: apparently the boat exploded and flipped the sailors' craft upside
down.
·
Oil exports resumed a day after a precautionary shut down
following the failed attacks. Iraq is now exporting 1.6 million barrels a day;
of which 90% goes through Umm Qasar and the remainder through the Iraq-Turkey
pipeline.
·
We read [and unfortunately do not recall the source] that the US
made its first purchase of Libyan oil after lifting of sanctions; 2 million
barrels were contracted for. Of course, the report should have read
"direct purchase": once oil leaves Libya, it can be sent to any
country and an equivalent amount diverted to the US. We are unsure if the US
bothered actually checking where Libya outbound tankers went. US oil companies
are in Libya negotiating new expansion of oil production.
·
Orbat.com comment When speaking of US policy in the Arab world
and Central Asia, often all of us see only the outward facade of events. Oil is
the most powerful driving force - though hardly the sole force - behind US
policy. We lack the expertise to discuss this subject. Nonetheless, we feel the
US has been making a concentrated effort to diversify and increase its import
sources, partly to keep oil prices from rising unreasonably, and partly because
there will likely be a Saudi interruption when the US moves to sort out that
country. Saudi is largely behind Islamic terror's money, indications are the
internal situation is crumbling, and only massive repression is keeping the
people down. Saudi's ruling elite appears unable to adjust to the demands of an
egalitarian and democratic age. For now the Saudis have managed to contain the
fundamentalist attacks inside the country. Clearly the deal between Saudi and
the fundamentalists - we pay you to do your thing anywhere but here - has
broken down; we have no clue why. In its turn, the US has managed to control
information detailing Saudi's long association with terrorism, but there are
leaks in the dyke. There may come a time when the American people feel that low
oil prices are not worth the price of putting up with this odious regime. And
in any case, whatever the people think, the US government is determined to
clean up and democratize the place. The delay in Iraq has forced a delay in
direct action against Syria and Iran, and then against Saudi Arabia. But please
note otherwise the US plan is going well. The Libyan sea change is one success,
the steady penetration of Central Asia another. The situation in Afghanistan
improves every day - the US is even planning for reductions in its troop
deployments there. Most important, the US has one giant foot firmly planted on
the eastern Islamic world [Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia], and the other
giant foot planted firmly in the heart of the western Islamic world - Iraq.
Such enormous changes in global geopolitics do not come about easily or
quickly. But we should not miss the wood for its trees. For near 120 years the
United States has been engaged in an inexorable expansion to reshape the world
in accordance with American interests. A big reason why this drive will not
fail - as did previous world empires - is that the principles America wants to
apply to every country are the same principles all of Earth's peoples long for:
Liberty, Equality, and the Pursuit of Happiness.
0530 GMT April 25, 2004
To your editor's
amazement - and he is not being ironic - five more readers wrote in and asked
for no change in the format. That makes 8 in all, and your editor will respect
their wishes. One reader has offered to help, since his interests include
Russia and the FSU, he will be a major asset for all of us. Many, many
interesting things happen in that part of the world that go unreported in the
world media.
·
AFP says Greek Cypriots voted 3-1 against the UN unification plan,
which runs into 9000 pages. Earlier, the Turkish Cypriots had voted 2-1 in
favor; the carrot the EU offered - permitting a unified Cyprus to join worked
for the Turks but not for the Greeks. The EU speaks of rewarding Turkish
Cyprus; the Greek Cypriots are quite aware what their intransigence is going
cost them. They say they are not against reunification, only against this
particular plan.
·
Just as we were noting the absence of trouble in Baghdad's Sadr
City, strong-hold of Al-Sadr, AFP says insurgent mortar fire probably aimed at
a US position killed 14 Iraqis.
·
Agencies say Coalition forces thwarted three suicide boat attacks
against Iraqi oil terminals and offshore wells. One boat blew up when a US
boarding party was attempting to take control, killing two US Navy sailors. A
second boat also exploded; while no damage to facilities is reported, loading
of crude had to be suspended.
·
Other reports speak of Polish troops killing five insurgents
without loss; it appears the Poles acted "right smartly" while
repaying the insurgents for the trouble they have been giving Polish troops.
·
Jang of Pakistan reports that four of the 5 wanted renegade Waziri
tribals surrendered to GOC Pakistan XI Corps in a ceremony attended by
thousands of Waziris. The four included the most wanted renegade. In a
peculiarly Pathan twist, the four presented gifts to the corps commander and
received warm hugs etc from him. In return for the surrenders, the Pakistan
Government will release almost all detained Waziri fighters and will pump in
additional development aid to the area. Pakistan offered amnesty to all foreign
militants living in the area on the understanding they would not bears arms
against Pakistan.
·
Orbat.com comment We should be the first to acknowledge we never
expected this outcome, and attribute our error to a deficient understanding of
tribal customs. It is a typical tribal areas deal: no one loses face, and
though it is not said by Jang, we are sure the deal includes good treatment and
short sentences for the renegades. The difficulty arises when one looks at the deal
from an American perspective. As nearly as we can reconstruct, the Pakistan
Army embarked on a hunt for Osama and at some point came up against the
renegade Waziris, who have been making a good living off Osama's money and
criminal activities. Osama - if he was in the area, which has not been
confirmed - slipped away and the Pakistanis grappled with the renegades. With
Pakistan threatening collective punishment as per tribal rules, the Waziri
elders formed a 2000 man posse, and went after the renegades. Talk rather than
battle was the instrument, the posse was there to firmly show the renegades
that they were not going to escape, and the tribal elders were not about to let
five men be the cause of strict punishment inflicted on the tribe. The foreign
militants were, we believe, involved with Osama, but marginally so because he
was in their neck of the woods. They have been settled in Pakistan for 25-35
years and are Pakistanis in all but name. Because the Pakistan Army was gunning
for everyone in the area, the foreigners fought in self-defense. The renegades
fought because they were facing rough justice if caught, on account of having
killed Pakistani troops. The deal as it stands actually cost neither side
anything. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Government and its unwitting agents, the
world media, have drawn the wool over everyone's eyes. We [and that very much
includes Orbat.com] have been highly focused on the tribal showdown; in fact,
it was only a sideshow, and the Pakistanis knew that. They allowed the media to
focus on the showdown because that diverted attention from the real issue:
Osama and at least one important subordinate got away. The US, of course, has
been careful not to say anything about the situation and so has avoided being
caught on the wrong foot. One of our readers, Rahul Narang, had predicted
this Noh play would be enacted and he is to be congratulated for having the
correct intuition. The Pakistanis are to be congratulated for having brilliantly
played both sides off against each other - Osama and the US, and both are
grateful for the alleged support they received from the Pakistan government. We
suspect the Pakistan hands are grinding their teeth in frustration at being
taken for a ride by Islamabad. None of this matters: Washington thinks it owes
Pakistan big time for its "support".
·
Jang of Pakistan reports that ISAF states in Afghanistan that
Afghan militias will be disarmed by 2005, and the resistance to the move is
only to be expected.
0230 GMT April 24, 2004
As our
Email is running 3-0 against the proposed change, your editor will continue as
before, and trust some higher authority to look after him. In case any
reader is wondering if 3-0 shouldn't read 3 to 1, please be assured the figure
is correct. Three readers wrote to ask we not make any changes, no one wrote in
to say the changes were acceptable.
·
AFP reports Iraq Health Ministry officials as saying 271 have died
in Fallujah; this compares to 600 estimated by the US, and over 1000 estimated
by the Arab media.
·
Meanwhile, Al-Sadr continues his bluster, threatening suicide
attacks against US troops if Najaf is attacked. Since US has explicitly said it
has no plans to enter Najaf, with one commander commenting US had all the time
in the world, we can assume only that Al-Sadr is missing the attention he was
previously getting.
·
Christian Science Monitor says a coalition of 25 tribes has called
for all armed groups in Najaf to disband, a clear request to Al-Sadr. The Badr
Militia is all set to go after Al-Sadr, but Grand Ayatollah Sistani is using
his authority to keep the Badr away from Al-Sadr's militia, fearing internecine
violence. CSM says people of Najaf are upset with Al-Sadr because he is
disturbing the peace, their lives, and their incomes.
·
Orbat.com opinion We have never had any doubt that Al-Sadr is
finished. Our only criticism was the obvious mistake of launching the anti
Al-Sadr operation at the same time as the Fallujah operation. The CSM story, if
anyone cares to read between the lines, is that the US political strategy
is working perfectly, though we could quibble by saying the standoff is taking
much longer than originally anticipated. By cordoning off Najaf, the US is
stopping al-Sadr from leaving - though we are baffled as to why the US lets him
go every Friday to Kufa. By refusing to enter Najaf, the US is forcing the
local Shia leaders - no fans of Al-Sadr - to take care of Al-Sadr. By showing
disinterest in any negotiated solution - if we are to take Al-Sadr's people at
their word that negotiations failed because the US added a new set of
conditions - and repeatedly telling Al-Sadr he will either be killed or
captured no matter what he does, the US is bringing enormous psychological
pressure on a man who has shown he does not think clearly. It appears the US is
waiting for him to make a mistake that will lead to his own downfall.
·
Interpretation of the News The Christian Science Monitor
story makes clear that Al-Sadr's influence across the south has been
eliminated: in one case, Karbala, a local Shia militia took care of the Al-Sadr
fighters. Please note we have had no news from Sadr City in Baghdad for over a
week. It would appear his fighters have left Baghdad and are hemmed in with him
in Najaf. It would be nice if the media would put these things in perspective,
but we do understand it is asking too much of them - particularly the American
media - to say a US policy is working. Orbat.com is still ready to slam the
politicals: our impression is the strategy being executed by the Army in Najaf
and the Marines in Fallujah has been originated by the military, not by Mr.
Bremer's office. If anyone knows differently, please do write in.
·
Agencies say Senator John McCain believes another division is
needed in Iraq on top of the decision to retain at least three, perhaps four
brigade groups. Orbat.com comment We keep coming back to the figure of
two more divisions. Mr. Rumsfeld, greatness lies in owning up to mistakes.
Please stop spinning. Send in two more divisions. The American people are ready
to pay the price of winning in Iraq. It is only your stubbornness that is
holding up things. You do not have a right to mess up the situation and put
American lives at risk because of your ego.
·
US media reports the death of a well-known football star in action
in Afghanistan. This gentleman walked away from a $3.6 million for three years
contract offer after 9/11; along with his brother, also a well-knowing athlete,
he joined the Army instead. But then, this man already marched to his own
drummer: he had earlier refused a $9 million offer from another teams,
preferring to stay loyal to his own despite much more money. In a country where
a person's worth is judged solely by her/his bank balance, and where the
elite is unprepared to make any sacrifice for the country, it is refreshing
that a young man was not ashamed to be patriotic. He served with the 75th
Infantry Regiment, the US Rangers.
·
Retired Army Colonel David Hackworth, writing in Military.com,
provides details of the Iraq National Army fiasco at Fallujah. [We had earlier
said that ICDC militia had failed the test of battle, but we were partly wrong
in that an INA battalion also fell apart.] 2nd Battalion INA was convoyed by
road to Fallujah with US advisors. It fell into an ambush in which 30 soldiers
were killed, and disintegrated till the Marines showed up and took charge. The
commanding officer and all company commanders were relieved of command, and 100
men were jailed for desertion and cowardice. When the battalion was reassembled
at Tadji, its home base, it was told it was being deployed again, by air - to
Fallujah.
·
Col. Hackworth says: "the 695-man battalion had eight wounded,
24 combat desertions, 104 mutineers, 78 AWOLs and 170 on leave."
Presumably that should read on "leave". Col. Hackworth makes the point
10 years are required to build an army, and the US civil administration, by
insisting on an accelerated hand-over schedule to suit the President's
reelection bid, is mucking up the creation of a proper army. With all respect
to Col. Hackworth, and while in agreement with him on US assumptions, we
disagree about the time needed. Six months would be adequate time to reform
even 10 battalions - if the officers and senior NCOs had been recalled. An army
built from scratch would certainly take 10 years to become functional.
1115 GMT April 23, 2004
[2nd Update]
Due to time
and other constraints, the daily news update will be confined to reporting the
War on Terror and other major conflicts. Opinion and detailed interpretation,
where required, will be made in the Analysis magazine.
·
CNN says US Marine commanders express increasing frustration and
impatience with Fallujah ceasefire. Say insurgents continue to fire at US
troops. Say weapons turn-in consists of junk and only a pick-up worth at that.
Say insurgent hard core consists of 200 foreign fighters and "several
hundred" locals inspired by imams; many are criminals and drug dealers.
·
Agencies say a previously unknown "Yello-Red Army"
terrorist group. apparently in Thailand, warns it will attack civilian targets
in 8 countries that are supporting, or plan to support [Pakistan], US
intervention in Iraq.
·
Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan prepared to contribute troops to
provide security for UN operations in Iraq if contingent is under UN command.
Earlier, India which was assembling a division [17,000 troops] for Iraq
reversed course and said it would send troops only for a UN operation.
·
AP reports US Air Force as saying 75% of its personnel are now
combat experienced, the highest since World War 2, and has defined a new phase
of operations, called Post-Combat Operations. The doctrine has been evolving
since the mid-1990s and the Balkan wars. It involves precise and instant
coordination between all US airpower assets, so that airpower can be put over a
target within seconds of the request. For example, Navy F-14s have supported
Marine operations in Fallujah.
·
AP reports US Air Force says its 2000-lb smart bombs are hitting
within their 12 feet length, and it plans to have a bombing capability that
will permit dropping of 80 X 500-lb bombs, each hitting within 4 feet of the
aim point.
·
Basra anti-UK demonstrations and allegations UK was behind
car-bomb attacks come from Al-Sadr militia.
0230 GMT April 23, 2004
Your editor
may have to terminate this section which, alas, is the most popular part of the
site. Of late he has been getting increasingly involved while reporting the
news. There is just so much stupidity one can bear. This is not good. Your
editor has remained fair in reporting the news, but either he keeps his
opinions to himself, and reports just the facts, Ma'am, or he ditches this
section.
·
Washington Post reports US to rehire 11,000 teachers fired because
of Baath membership, and is looking at other group of technicians and officials
to recall. This is part of a drive to give the newly disenfranchised Sunnis a
stake in the new Iraq, as well as to assist the faster rebuilding of the
country. US now saying that after all, Baath membership was essential to et any
sort of government job and most of the professional class were not really Baath
supporters.
·
Orbat.com's comment We are rendered speechless by the brilliance
of Mr. Bremer. Anyone with a passing knowledge of Iraq knew the situation
regarding the Baath party. He was told about it. That did not stop him from
firing everyone, thus helping to fuel the various insurgencies and criminal
activities taking place today. Now he has reversed himself, with the US
Government getting its knickers into a twist saying there is no reversal. Mr.
Bremer, supposing senior military officers had shown even some of the
incompetence you have displayed. We wonder, had you the authority, what you
would have done to them.
·
US also recalls a first batch of generals: six are back at work,
and more flag rank officers are to follow. Some genius figured out that - to
paraphrase a CNN source - generals are not made after a few weeks training. Now
how long did it take the geniuses in Washington and Baghdad to figure that out?
·
Here is a true story for our readers. As the invasion of Iraq drew
nearer, 100 Arabic speaking US bureaucrats, officials, and the like with
experience of the region were assembled in Kuwait, ready to go in after the
troops. Thanks to Mr. Rumsfeld and others, who unilaterally decided they did
not want the purity of their concepts ruined by people who actually knew
something about Iraq, the hundred never went to Iraq. They were sent back to
the US. The reason the American people grew disillusioned about Vietnam was not
because of the casualties, horrendous as they were.
·
The military families knew with what casual incompetence the
military leaders were, in effect, sending their men to their deaths. Military
families are loyal, and little was said. The disillusionment grew because
American leaders lied, and lied, and lied to cover their mistakes. American
leaders today must be thanking their lucky stars that the enemy is so
ineffectual, and that the US media has so effectively castrated itself, that
they have escaped true scrutiny for their egregious errors in Iraq. These are
not honest errors, part of the healthy process of learning from mistakes: that
is how leaders are made. These are errors of arrogance, because huge parts of
the US national security establishment had learned from past mistakes and knew
what needed to be done in Iraq: there is almost no turn of the road that was
not accurately predicted and warned against before the US went in. The US
military, its leaders and its fighting men, are once again saving their
worthless civilian leaders by expending their blood. Do the people who messed
up in Iraq have a word of remorse, a word of apology, any indication they
accept their responsibility? No. They don't have to apologize, because they
didn't make any mistakes. They planned all along to dismantle the Iraqi
military and bureaucratic steel frame, gather Iraq into chaos, and then hire
back the people they had fired. Mere mortals such as ourselves can never hope
to understand the staggering genius of our rulers.
·
Reuters reports that the good citizens of Basra show their
appreciation for their liberation by British soldiers, and the year of decent
governance they have enjoyed, by stoning British troops: the foreigners, they
said, are responsible for the attacks because they failed to provide security.
Hmmm. We do all agree on how effective Saddam was at providing security: kill
any dissenter that speaks one word, make torture and barbaric execution the
punishment for the smallest crime, and you have security.
·
Some of the good people of Basra have gone one step further: the
British troops are responsible because THEY planned and helped implement the
five car bomb attacks.
·
The Brits are so devilishly clever that Orbat.com, at least, is
completely unable to fathom the point of the Brits themselves becoming
terrorists. Your editor once met a personable American running for
President, Mr. Lyndon LaRouche, and a lady who he thought said she was
Mrs. LaRouche [your editor is half deaf]. She ignored the other guests and
explained to your editor in great detail that the Queen of England actually ran
America, and Venetian bankers ran the Queen of England. Doubtless someone akin
to the Venetian bankers also runs the UK MOD who runs Osama Bin Ladan and
various assorted Islamic terrorist groups. It is impossible for persons of such
low IQ as your editor to understand these things. He cravenly apologies for his
stupidity.
·
Jang of Pakistan reports the Pakistan Army says the campaign
against foreign terrorists is over. The locals have given their word they will
police the area themselves. The Pakistan Army can now go home. And yet some
people attack your editor because he once mistakenly said in an Orbat.com
editorial that no proof exists that the Easter Bunny exists!
·
Meanwhile, terrorists and Saudi security forces have been having a
free for all in Riyadh. We are not following the story because, in all
frankness, we don't feel a thing when we learn that the terrorists the Saudis
paid to go away and kill foreigners have broken their word and are killing
Saudis. Can no one anymore be trusted to keep a promise?
·
News of the Absurd A few days ago, NPR reported that a lawyer for
the Guantanamo Bay detainees had argued before a judge that the US had a perpetual
lease on the naval base and as such had control of the base, and as such, US
law applied. No, no, no, said the Government lawyer. The base is part of Cuba.
Cuba has control. If Mr. Castro does not listen to NPR, we at Orbat.com are
happy to send him a message that he controls Guantanamo. [Personally, we don't
care about the detainees. You're captured on a battlefield with a gun in your
hand or in the company of fighters, you are a fighter or you are aiding
and abetting the enemy. The Americans are much too kind. Most armies would
simply have shot the men right then and there, rather than waste food on them.]
0230 GMT April 22. 2004
·
AFP says suicide bombers hit Basra police stations, killing 68
including 20 school children passing by. Though Iraqi official sources were
quick to claim an Al-Qaeda connection, the UK commander on the scene says the
only thing known for sure is the bombers are not from the city and may not be
from Iraq.
·
CNN says a 4-hour firefight between 60+ Iraqi insurgents and
Marines in Fallujah left 36 insurgents dead and 3 Marines wounded. Video shot
on scene shows fierce action. Close air support was also used. [Orbat.com note:
the Marines have relatively small numbers of tanks and medium artillery because
of the need to keep their formations as mobile as possible, and have
traditionally relied very extensively on CAS to make up for the lack of heavy
firepower.] US military officials say that if the incident was an isolated one,
they will continue with the ceasefire. If, however, it represents a deliberate
breaking of the ceasefire, the US will resume offensive operations.
·
Our US Deployments Iraq section is in some disarray because of the
overall problems we've been having at Orbat.com - the software needed to our
kind of operation has not been installed in a timely manner, but the expansion
continues unabatedly: we cannot hold up people eager to start work just because
we're having problems. So sections your editor looks after personally, such as
America Goes to War, have fallen behind. Nonetheless, it appears as if 1st
Brigade, 1st Armored Division is operating in support of I MEF. Anyone with
information, and the inclination to keep the US deployments section in order,
kindly contact the editor.
·
CENTCOM says it has been using Predator UAVs armed with Hellfire
missiles against insurgents, particularly around Balad. The good thing about
the Iraq mess is that it will provide the explosive assist needed to rapidly
develop/deploy a whole lot of new robot warfighting technologies.
Progress has been chugging along at peace speed. For example, using armed UAVs
to patrol highways reduces the need for protecting convoys: send a couple of
Predators ahead of the convoy to "sweep" the highway, and the chance
of being caught in a surprise ambush is reduced.
·
Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Army has agreed to give the
Waziri militia hunting renegade tribesmen and foreigners in its territory the
10 more days the Waziris had requested before resuming operations.
0230 GMT April 21, 2004
·
Despite optimistic reports in the media, many based on statements
by Iraqi negotiators, the US Defense Secretary and Chairman, Joint Chiefs of
Staff, are clear military action will be needed in Fallujah. They have warned
that the US will not stand-off indefinitely, and indications are Marine
commanders are urging resumption of the offensive. If it is resumed, it is
likely to aim for a rapid resolution. This news may appear at odds with other
reports saying Iraqi security forces are back on the street, the US has relaxed
the curfew to 9 PM, and is allowing up to 50 families a day back into the city.
Nonetheless, it is not the ordinary residents of Fallujah who have a say in
matters; there is no indication insurgents are willing to lay down their heavy
weapons.
·
Further, we have reason to believe that the Marines, while allowing
retention of personal weapons like AKs, will not tolerate anyone carrying them
in the street. We wish we had better information, but from odds and ends that
have reached us, we believe a major factor in the decision of the insurgents to
accept the ceasefire was their losses to Marine snipers. These have been
infiltrating positions ahead of the front-line, and shooting anyone they see
with a rifle in hand. Sometimes they will lie in ambush for 1-2 days without
disclosing their positions. We do know that during curfew hours, no one is
allowed to leave their house, and even sticking a head outside can result in a
warning shot. If a man is seen armed, on the street or in his compound, he is
shot immediately. Since the blockading Marines are not allowing people to leave
their homes to bury the dead, there is no real indication of how many people
have been killed in Fallujah, and the Marines are not talking. These are harsh
tactics, but result in far fewer civilian deaths. We welcome letters from
persons informed on the sniper issue.
·
AFP says eight insurgents were killed by the Marines in Fallujah
after they were spotted moving around with rifles and RPGs.
·
Newsweek publishes a detailed and horrifying account of the
corruption surrounding the Iraq oil-for-food program. It names several
prominent UN diplomats, Mr. Kofi Annan's son, and important French officials
and other with ties to the French President, as having accepted hundreds of
millions of dollars in bribes, possibly higher than that, from Saddam. Newsweek
says Russia and France are blocking any real enquiry into the scandal, and
alleges that it was concern for their flow of bribes that kept the French
attacking the US intention to invade Iraq. Nonetheless, it notes that Mr. Anan
has agreed to an enquiry, speculates this will go nowhere, and adds that the US
Congress has begun hearings with no punches pulled. If these charges are
proved, the UN will lose tremendous credibility, to say nothing of France.
·
ABC News gives further details: $5 billion is alleged to have
accepted as bribes by 270 or more named foreign individuals, who were
apparently identified as early as January by the Iraqi media, using official
records. The head of the program is one of the accused officials. The
individuals include religious leaders, and some are US citizens.
·
Jang of Pakistan reports that the Waziri militia send to hunt
down five renegade Waziri leaders and foreign insurgents have talked to the
most wanted person. They asked him to surrender and save the people from
further trouble. He asked for three days to consult with his comrades. The
militia continues to occupy its positions, but has neither killed nor captured
any militant. The Pakistan Army let the Tuesday deadline pass without incident
to give the Waziri leaders as much leeway as possible for negotiations.
·
Haaretz of Israel says Mordechai Vanunu, the
Israeli nuclear technician who had to serve an 18 year sentence without parole,
is freed today and has already been told he cannot leave the country. The
newspaper says he has threatened to reveal more secrets. Your editor
recalls - without details of significance, as he was not interested in the
matter - that at the time of Vanunu's arrest, there were rumors that he had
been deliberately set up to "confirm" Israel's nuclear arsenal, and
to exaggerate its strength, as a deterrent to Israel's enemies. Of course,
everything in the Mideast is one big conspiracy. Nonetheless, we wonder why Mr.
Vanunu has been allowed to send ahead several boxes of his notes written while
in prison: the boxes were marked "Examined", but why let him take
anything by the clothes he was wearing. It seems almost like he is being set up
again - we are warned he will likely release more secrets, has a prodigious
memory, and has accumulated a vast quantity of notes in prison - which he has
been allowed to take home after saying he will make more exposes. We
refuse to believe the Israelis are so stupid; as such the only explanation is
he is once again being made a patsy.
·
CNN reports Falluja and Najaf calm bar occasional firing. Fallujah
deal has been made: insurgents will hand over heavy weapons, the killers of the
4 contractors will be found and arrested by the Iraqis themselves, joint
US-Iraqi patrols will take place with the Marines gradually leaving more of the
work to Iraqis.
·
The big question everyone is asking is that can the Iraqis enforce
these conditions? With many foreign fighters in the city not owing anything to
the people of Fallujah, these groups may well reject the ceasefire.
·
Washington Post and other polls say that Fallujah and Al-Sadr have
pushed up support for President Bush, who had been losing ground versus Democratic
challenger John Kerry, and Mr. Bush now has a lead over Mr. Kerry. Support for
sending more troops is rising, and fewer people want to get out of Iraq.
·
Orbat.com comment Does the above show the Vietnam syndrome is
over? Yes and no. Iraq is not Vietnam, so we are comparing apples and oranges.
In 1968 in Vietnam the US was running 500 killed a week, young men were being
drafted for the war, and few Americans could understand why their country was
in Vietnam in the first place. And the US population was about 60% of what it
is today, so the casualty toll represented a much higher fraction of the
population. In Iraq, there are 3 issues which American grasp with utmost
clarity: oil, religion, and democracy. The polls show people are angry about
the WMD claim. Had they been told from the start it was about the above three
issues, we, at least, believe a strong majority of Americans would have
supported not just this war, but also war against Syria, Iran and - yes, even
DPRK. And, of course, Libya has been knocked out of the fight against
fundamentalism without a shot. So we really cannot, and should not, talk about
the end or otherwise of the Vietnam syndrome.
· Agencies say 18 mortar rounds landed in a Baghdad confinement facility killing at least 21 Iraqis and wounding 100. [Orbat.com request to media: can you kindly stop referring to mortar rounds as 'mortars'? A mortar is the weapon itself, consisting of a tube, sights, and a base. The ammunition used to be called a mortar bomb, and we don't recall when that term was dropped, but certainly as of the 1960s, the ammunition became a mortar round. Mortars are a wonderful invention [if you happen to be the one attacking with them]: simple, relatively light, high angle of fire, immediately available to the company or battalion commander. The problem is, the darn things can fire off a line of ammunition in 20 minutes. The two-tube mortar section with C Company, 13th Kumaon Regiment at its famous last stand at Rezeng La, 1962 Sino-Indian War, fired off all except 6-7 rounds of its stock of 1006 rounds before the men were killed. The overall battle lasted perhaps 4-6 hours, and the main battle 2 hours; four hours were in darkness or heavy fog, so presumably [the Indian positions were connected only by landlines, which were cut very quickly] the bulk of those rounds were fired in a very short time. The loader for one mortar was cut down preparing to fire almost the very last of the rounds, and his body was found still holding the round. Sorry for the digression - nothing to do with the War on Terror, but the comments may help people understand how th