0245 GMT August 31, 2004

Another quiet day yesterday.

· IRAQ Al-Sadr orders his militia to disarm and join the political mainstream; we remain unclear if this means anything.

· Iran's Supreme Ayatollah says Imam Ali shrine's spiritual glory saved the shrine. No mention of Al-Sadr militia reduced to surrendering as they had no chance of surviving the planned assault.

· Joseph Stefula sends an article from the UK Guardian that says UK forces have come under Al-Sadr militia attack hundreds of times during the Shia uprising. The softly-softly approach has failed; UK forces are confined to their bases and get mortared and rocketed daily. UK has decided not to retaliate in response to escalating attacks. This may be a good response, but while we are indeed sorry the UK approach has not worked in their AOR, we hope the British now understand what they are up against.

· US Ambassador to Iraq requests $3 billion of US funds earmarked for infrastructure be shifted to security needs.

· DEBKA ON THE AMERICAN AIRLINES NYC CRASH IN NOVEMBER 2001 Debka quotes a Canadian media sources to say the American Airlines crash on take-off in November 2001 was brought down by a shoe-bomber. According to the media source, the Canadian government has in custody a suspect whop seems to know a great deal about the crash.

0215 GMT August 30, 2004

This early morning there is little real news. We suppose even journalists are entitled to a day of rest, but we don't see why they should take it. We work around the year every day.

· AL-SADR/BAGHDAD Iraq, US and Al-Sadr militia are in negotiations to end fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City. The clashes have continued for weeks, but were overshadowed by Najaf.

· FRENCH JOURNALISTS Readers will be aware that 2 French journalists have just recently been taken hostage. Their captors say the hostages will be killed unless France cancels its ban on head scarves in public schools. French Muslims condemn the kidnapping.

· Orbat.com comment: good work, brave kidnappers. The world needs more of your idiocy before it is convinced - as is the US government at least - that you have to be eliminated at all costs. May we suggest you kidnap some Americans and make some perfectly stupid demands for changes in the US's internal affairs? There are a lot of people in the US who still believe the US is at fault for alienating the Muslim world.

· In your editor's opinion, each time a foreigner is kidnapped in Iraq, especially a western journalist, way too much space is given to the issue. We are very sorry for the families of the men and hope all ends well; which it will after the French have forked over the necessary amount of euros. At the same time, the media owes it to its readers to spend more time reporting news and not the fate of its community.

· PAKISTAN John Lancaster of Washington Post, a reporter we trust for his accurate, balanced, and thoughtful analysis of India, writes that the Pakistan government is on the verge of losing its battles against terrorist movements, in part because President Musharraf still refuses to crack down on Kashmir terrorist groups.

· Meanwhile, the redoubtable defense spokesperson valiantly continues to defend his government from behind ramparts of paper. Everything is under control, terrorists have been routed, Al Qaeda destroyed, etcetra - remember when he used to say there were NO foreign terrorists and Al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

· In the Wana area, terrorists have taken to using roadside IEDs against Pakistan Army convoys. Good luck to the Pakistan government.

· The way the Indians have for years been handling IEDs planted by Pakistan-based  terrorists is that every morning, without fail, "road-opening parties" of soldiers set out to search every meter of important roads and culverts for IEDs. The work is horribly labor intensive - one of the many reasons India has more than 100 security forces deployed versus 1 terrorist. And the work is mind-numbingly boring. Day after day after day the units assigned have to spend hours going over the same stretch of highway; any mistake, any sloppiness, any haste means people are going to get killed.

· We estimate Pakistan might need 10 battalions in the Wana area alone to keep military roads clear. Pakistan's asymmetrical warfare worked beautifully against India in Kashmir; now the very same terrorists Pakistan trained are the ones planting IEDs.

· Before India feels smug: the same thing happened to India. It created, financed, trained, and supplied the secessionist Sri Lanka LTTE [Tamil Tigers]. When the Indian Army went into Sri Lanka in 1987 at US request, as the country was in danger of being partitioned by the rebels, the Indians found their former pupils had learned well. There are recorded incidents of clashes in which LTTE fighters killed Indian soldiers, but lost men as POWs, and the POWs recognized individual officers who had trained them. This being South Asia, we heard that in at least two cases, the captives saluted the officers and anxiously asked for approval, saying: "Sir, did we not fight well against you?"

· India exists in this universe and in other universes simultaneously. The above story may make no sense to Americans, it makes perfect sense to the Indians.

0230 GMT August 29, 2004

· NAJAF/AL SADR An Iraq official says that some weapons have been turned in by the militia, but a militia official says the men have been told not to hand in their weapons. Yesterday we saw a report that said militiamen were stacking their weapons - at an Al-Sadr office. By refusing to disarm, the militia has already violated on the 3 ceasefire conditions.

· We hear nothing about Al-Sadr's whereabouts.

· The Washington Post writes and editorial with which we unusually agree. It notes this is the third time Al-Sadr has "capitulated" when cornered. The problem, as the WashPost says, is that Al-Sadr may start thinking he can get away again, leading him to force yet another confrontation with Iraq/US. The Post notes ironically that the US is stuck with the bill for rebuilding central Najaf.

· Our personal concern is: what effect does this "settlement" have on the Sunni insurgency? And in Baghdad, at least, the Al-Sadr lot continue to tangle with US/Iraq forces.

· We had believed most emphatically that this time the Iraqis would not let Al-Sadr go. Time for us to own up to our error.

· We also don't understand why the Iraqis felt they had only two options, equally bad: storm the shrine or let the militia go. Why could the siege not have continued, without the US continuing to level everything in sight? Sooner or later those inside would have given up.

· Please note we are NOT saying what the Iraqis have done is stupid. We are sure they had reasons - but what those reasons are are not known to us.

· RUSSIAN JETLINERS Reuters reports Russians have found traces of explosive on the second passenger aircraft. They identify it as hexogen, an explosive that has been used in previous terrorist attacks. AFP says a Russian expert estimates 50 grams of the substance - two ounces - would suffice to crash an airliner.

· Two women with Chechen last names who boarded the flight [or flights, we are unclear], one of whom was the last passenger on board her flight, are under investigation. Alone of all passengers, no family member of the two women has contacted the airlines to whom the aircraft belong.

· AFP notes that while the Russian authorities have not identified possible perpetrators, the Russian press is convinced Chechen rebels were responsible.

· Readers will recall the terrorists who seized the Moscow theatre included a large percentage of Chechen war widows.

· We confess we had not thought of this angle. Why use suicide bombers if the only objective is to blow up the aircraft? But as of now, it appears that this is what happened.

· Chechnya is to hold elections in five days, and Russian authorities were concerned that rebels might seek to disrupt the process.

· IRAN UPDATE [Nicholas Krazin] Iranian journalist Mostafa Darban and his two Iraqi crewmen have been released by the Iraqi Interior ministry, after almost two weeks in custody. Darban says he still does not know why he was arrested, but he believes it was a misunderstanding.

· Three days after the assumed terrorist airplane downing in Russia, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami contacted President Putin to send his regrets. Khatami did not mention the word Terrorism at all, and simply calling it an ‘air disaster.’

0400 GMT August 28, 2004

· NAJAF We are unclear why we are wasting our readers' time as well as ours on Najaf. The militia is out of the shrine - relatively few were inside toward the end, anyway - and while a few have given up their weapons, most fighters have left with weapons intact. Further, its not clear to whom the few weapons were surrendered. They could have been given to a militia collecting point to secure them for future action.

· CONGRATULATIONS TO KARL VICK OF WASHPOST Karl Vick of the Washington Post wrote a great article yesterday, explaining how the US fought the Najaf campaign. He says while the shrine is intact, the combat area has been leveled and desolated. He notes that the US didn't go into Iraqi cities during Gulf II (and presumably after) because of the fear of casualties. But now the US has destroyed inner Najaf at the cost of 11 dead, while the militia has suffered hundreds of dead and was defeated. By the use of precision artillery, helicopter, and fighter support, combined with snipers, the US proceeded to systematically clear the area in house-to-house fighting - without the ground forces having to fight for every house. Vick's understanding of the basics of the situation is good, and his analysis, made so close to the campaign's end shows good on-the-spot analytical abilities.

· AL-SADR  In response to the general merrymaking about the crisis having ended, please note that Al-Sadr and his militia are quite intact, and with a few months training for old and new recruits, will become even more effective. But at least Al-Sadr should understand that seizing a shrine did not save him or his men. Had they not fled, they all would have been captured or killed.

· TECHNOLOGY The US probably used new technologies such as micro-UAVs in the Najaf fighting, but its useful to note that a whole new generation of urban warfare technologies is coming on line. This includes robots and new sensors which further reduce the vulnerability of the infantry. One is reminded of Tom Winteringham's classic "Weapons and Tactics", how new weapons force the development of new tactics, and new tactics require new weapons.

· The prognosis for infantry survival on the early 21st Century battlefield were grim, so lethal had weapons become. Now the balance is shifting the other way. The infantry is not just surviving, but with GPS, new sensors, micro UAVs, networking each soldier, new battlefield computers to usefully analyze and employ the huge amounts of data made available by the new sensors, improved body armor etc. the infantry is back on the battlefield with a bang.

· Please note the US is also developing machine exoskeletons for its infantry. The individual soldier will be able to lift hundreds of kilograms of gear and equipment, and march long distances over hill and dale, through river and swamp, etc. without exhaustion. The exoskeletons will, of course, be armored, and will eventually have weapons the infantryman will use to extend his range and volume of fire. Star Wars will become earth wars.

· Incidentally, your editor for long has said that robots cannot replace humans on the battlefield because its so much cheaper to use human brains and bodies. But: the US has ingeniously embarked on combining the best of the human with the best of the robot. Twenty years from, rifle battalions will inflict more damage than divisions do today, and casualties, which have already fallen by an order of magnitude, will fall another order of magnitude. The US will be able to fight endless wars without losing lives.

· we wonder if Mr. Bin Ladin etc are thinking about how this will affect their tactics. with the new weapons, Fallujah and Najaf could have been cleared a long time ago.

· RUSSIA CRASHES Jerry M forwards an article from the St. Petersburg Times that gives more data indicating bombs and not hijackers were responsible. One plane was flying from Moscow to Volvograd, and went down just 200 km from Moscow. Eyewitnesses said they heard an explosion before the plane crashed. The other was flying from Moscow to Sochi, and went down 30 minutes from its destination, say about 400 km short of Sochi. The debris was spread over a large area, suggesting a mid-air explosion.

· Tim Hartigan points out that we cannot rule out the possibility hijackers were involved, insofar as hijackers may had explosives and have threatened to detonate the explosives unless they were given access to the cockpit.

· Mr. Hartigan's point has a solid fact in support: the second flight triggered an anti-hijack alarm. The first did not.

· So we could postulate a scenario in which at least the Sochi flight was hijacked, the crew refused to open the cockpit door, and the hijackers figured that as they were not going to get to crash the plane into Mr. Putin's villa at Sochi, might as well end the whole thing there.

· The problem with the Debka thesis that the villa was the target of both the aircraft is that how were the potential hijackers to know if Mr. Putin was in the villa at the time of their planned suicide run? Also, a villa is going to be hard to hit compared to the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. In view of the huge uncertainty about Mr. Putin's presence, why not do something spectacular and crash the second plane into a more dramatic target?

· Apparently security for both aircraft was tight because of earlier problems.

1100 GMT August 27, 2004

[2nd Update]

· AL-SADR EPISODE XC Agencies say Al-Sadr asked his followers to surrender arms and leave the shrine of Imam Ali and Najaf/Kufa.

· THE FARCE CONTINUES Though agencies such as AP speak of Al-Sadr as if he is in the shrine, the three journalists inside have not said for days that they have seen Al-Sadr. This at a time when the militia was imprisoned in the shrine itself, having been beaten out of the surrounding areas. His announcement was broadcast over loudspeakers; no agency has said they saw him make the announcement. So as of now, we have no indication that Al-Sadr is in Najaf.

· Next, while some militia were seen by agencies to be handing in their weapons, it is unclear to whom. Iraq government says it has set up three collection points, but no one has turned in weapons.

· Further, guess who is policing entry of worshippers to the shrine? You get zero points if you correctly guessed - Al-Sadr militia. And guess what they have done with their arms. Zero points if you correctly guessed - the militiamen carry their arms.

· Still further, agencies report militia leaders as saying they will not disarm. Militia is hiding weapons in Najaf, or taking them out of the city.

· The inference is inescapable: Al-Sadr does not control his militia, if he ever did. It would seem that the militia controls him.

· So: we welcome the "agreement" [Think Dr. Evil in Austin Powers], and look forward to Al-Sadr Episode XCI: The Saga Continues.

· RUSSIA JETLINERS Agencies say one of the two Russian planes that crashed has traces of explosives. This would confirm one part of the news first broken by Debka.com, that terrorist action was responsible for at least one crash. It would also disprove the other part of Debka's thesis, that the plane was hijacked. Suicide hijackers do not need explosives to crash a plane.

2230 GMT August 27, 2004

· KUFA The great freedom fighters of Iraq struck another blow today, this time targeting civilian peace marchers responding to Ayatollah Al-Sistani call for the people of Najaf to peacefully recover the shrine of Imam Ali. Clearly, the "civilian" marchers were puppets of the imperialist Americans and their puppet Iraqi government. By killing 74 and wounding 300 in a mortar attack and by gunfire, the great freedom fighters prevented the American desecration of the holy shrine. The great freedom fighters no doubt vowed to every last peaceful Iraqi to eject the Americans and their puppets from Iraq. Great job, fellows, medals for everyone and a special seat in heaven.

· Great job nothing. Get these scum, do not bother detaining them, a single bullet for each suffices to gain for them their just reward.

· NAJAF Agencies say Ayatollah Al-Sistani has reached a deal with Al-Sadr, agreed to by the Iraq government, for Al-Sadr to go free without fear of arrest. Nothing is being said about the militia left in the shrine.

· We sincerely hope that Al-Sadr accepts this deal, because he will be killed at the first opportunity. But going by past events, so far he has been too wily to be trapped into false deals.

· NEWS OF THE ABSURD An exultant Iraqi peace demonstrator told the media that the march was democracy in action, and was delivering the biggest defeat suffered by the Americans.

· Excuse us, Sir. Please resume taking your happy pills. In case you've forgotten, its the Americans who enabled you to have democracy. and if you are exercising your democratic rights, you have played completely and totally into American hands, because exercising your democratic rights is exactly what they want you to do. You are in effect, an American puppet!

· Side note: devilishly cunning, these Americans! They are getting at least this one Iraqi to follow their wishes, and he thinks he is defeating them! Absolutely brilliant

· Further side note: there are moments we get so exasperated by [rude word] mouthed Iraqis, that we too join - for a minute or two at least - those Iraqis who long for the days of Saddam. The old boy would have had our demonstrator, his family, his friends, brutally tortured and then shot. At least we wouldn't have to tolerate America-hating idiots.

· Further further side note: yes, yes, we know. Being a wise imperial power is not easy. You do so much for the natives and all you get is ingratitude. we suppose the Americans too will get their reward in heaven, as they flit around in unisex white robes playing harps. Thank goodness your editor was able to contact the Devil and beg the latter to make sure your editor goes to the downstairs place. Hate to say this, but terrorist heaven seems much more interesting...

· DEBKA ON RUSSIAN AIRLINERS Debka.com says both Russian airliners that crashed sent signals they were being hijacked. Their target was President Putin's vacation resort at Sochi on the Black Sea.

· Message to terrorists: now look, fellows, be reasonable. You want to die, be our guest. But why are you taking innocent people down with you? Do you even know where President Putin's villa is in Sochi? And does it occur to you that even if you did, a hijacked airliner is not a PGM?

· Of course, our rant supposes the Debka report is true in all parts.

· BALUCHISTAN Jang of Pakistan indirectly confirms what we were told about fighting in Pakistan's Baluchistan province, between tribals resisting new cantonments that Islamabad is building for army forces to protect US bases. The corps commander [We assume GOC XII Corps, Quetta] says that the terrorists have fled the Gwader area and hinterland. The corps commander visited three towns, Gwadar [on the Makran coast], Kharan, and Dalbindan. The locals at Dalbindin pressed the corps commander to take their land for an army base as the base would help them prosper.

· Now, we firmly maintain that the Pakistan government has the right to build bases on its territory as it sees best. But can we tone down the speaking out of both sides of the mouths, please? First the government tells Parliament there is no fighting going on; now not only are we being told the rebels have been defeated, and that the locals are so grateful that they positively insist on giving the government that same land they were fighting over so that army bases would not come up.

2215 GMT August 26, 2004

· NAJAF The news so far includes the same items given by us yesterday. That means no news is being allowed out of the conflict area. Air strikes continue for a fifth day [early Thursday morning, Iraq Time].

· An AFP correspondent is still inside the shrine. He spoke with a wounded militiamen who said the militia cannot shoot any more because the Americans will pick up militia positions and attack from the air.

· An Al-Sadr aide has been arrested; he and three men with him were carrying a "centuries old" tablet engraved with Koranic verses, taken from the shrine, and $40,000 in cash.

· Fighting in neighboring Kufa continues, but we are speaking of tens of casualties, which is relatively insignificant.

· ABU GHARIB More reports have been released  saying that up to 23 Army intelligence soldiers were directly or indirectly involved in prisoner abuse. We note this does not exonerate the personnel who are currently on trial: some sought to implicate MI, but in their case, the abuse  was simply good, clean fun.

· NEWS OF THE ABSURD Lawyers for an Australian on trial as an enemy combatant questioned the competence of the 5-member tribunal, and claimed one member was prejudiced as he was friendly with the general who wrote the report. Yo, homies, where do you think you are, in a criminal court in the US? You're in front of a military tribunal, you know the kind that operates under military law? Slightly different rules. Enemy combatant = the hangman. Simple equation. Though, of course, the Americans have gone soft in these matters. The accused will probably be convicted and sent back to serve his time in a reasonably comfy Oz prison.

· We had another laugh the other day. Lawyers for the ring-leader of the abusers in 372nd MP Company asked that evidence collected from his computers - photographs mainly - should be suppressed because his consent was not obtained for the search. The judge threw that motion out right quick.

· To explain why these lawyers are acting like brainy jellyfish, we have to see that the US soldiers are being defended by military lawyers appointed by the court. Many of them enter the JAG branch for 4 year stints because it provides great experience for the youngsters aspiring to be crack federal prosecutors one day. These people are highly educated. They watch too much court TV.

· EQUATORIAL GUINEA COUP: DEEPER INTO THE MURK Gareth Bowman writes: "Two unusual names have come up as having allegedly funded the recent - and failed - coup attempt: Jeffrey Archer, Baron of
Western-super-Mare, a disgraced Tory member of the House of Lords, who recently was released from prison for perjury; and the son of former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, Sir Mark Thatcher, 2nd Baronet.

· Mark Thatcher became notorious after apparently receiving millions of pounds from the Al Yamamah defense contract with Saudi Arabia whilst his mother was prime minister. Thatcher currently resides in South Africa,
and has been arrested under the South African Foreign Military Assistance Act, which bans SA residents from supporting unauthorized military action in other countries. Both men claim their innocence. A top plotter in the coup is a former SAS  officer, Simon Mann,  who went to Eton with  Mark Thatcher and he has claimed that the Spanish government was also involved.

· In case anyone is interested: Archer is known as Lord Archeras. He was created a life peer by PM John Major for service to politics. Mark Thatcher is
Sir Mark on account of his mother becoming an hereditary peer after leaving 10 Downing street.  The hereditary part indicates that offspring are entitled
to elevated status. A life peer does not have the same effect for its holder's children, and Thatcher's daughter does not have any title as she's a woman and ranks lower in precedence.

1145 GMT August 25, 2004

[2nd Update]

· NAJAF AFP reports that US troops have broken through the last militia defenses; one tank was reported to be just 20 yards away from the shrine. American snipers are preventing anyone from leaving of entering the shrine. We assume AFP is talking about the compound of the shrine and not the shrine itself.

· Besieged militia have closed all 4 doors to the shrine. The estimate of 500 militia inside that we gave earlier may include the women and children inside; the number of militia may be less than 200.

· Orbat.com notes that AFP makes no mention of Al-Sadr as being inside the shrine; it has a correspondent inside. Also, there have been no fiery statements from the young cleric in the last few days.

· AYATOLLAH SISTANI AFP says Grand Ayatollah Sistani arrived in Iraq via Kuwait, escorted by Iraq security forces. We assume he in or around Najaf at this time.

· Officially he has come to negotiate the surrender of the militia, and we are sure he will negotiate. What is not clear to us is why the militia should listen to him: Al-Sadr specifically challenged Al-Sistani's authority by taking over the shrine, and have ignored all appeals by him to leave the area.

· Further, it is not clear to us what happens if some of the militia want to surrender to Al-Sistani as a face-saving alternative to being killed. We cannot imagine any one will be allowed to leave from inside.

· IRAN MILITANTS? We offer this as pure intuition: Al-Sadr militia has departed the shrine/Najaf to fight another day.

· Those inside may be the Iranians sent to fight under cover of the Al-Sadr militia. In which case all negotiation is futile. The men are responsible not to Al-Sadr, certainly not to Al-Sistani, but to Iranian clerics. This speculation would explain why this last lot is so adamant.

· Given that the Najaf siege is headed toward complete defeat for the militants, Tehran's purposes - which are not automatically always coincident with Al-Sadr's - may still be served to an extent if the shrine is heavily damaged during the final assault. Not to speak of damage the besieged themselves can inflict under cover of the assault

0215 GMT August 25, 2004

· NAJAF With different sources saying different things, we are forced to give the best composite picture we can come up with.

· First One company of the 36th Battalion, ING, has closed in to 200 yards of the shrine; this is the first time Iraqi forces have been deployed ahead of US troops. US Marines are also reducing the circumference of their perimeter, and may be around 300-350 yards from the shrine.

· Second Much of the militia has been killed or has decided to quit. Many militiamen have been caught trying to escape, but many seem to have got through. Though no definitive estimate of the militia strength has been given, at the start of this operation there were between 1000 and 1500 militia. These included reinforcements that arrived in Najaf after the spring fighting, to swell the ranks of the much depleted militia. Many reinforcements reached Najaf in this round of fighting, but the cordon is now impermeable - unless there are tunnels which have not been discovered and sealed. As the Americans started to close in, however, and as negotiators dithered, many militiamen decided they were not going to be the fall guys for Al-Sadr, and began an exodus. At this time there may be no more than 500 militia left.

· Third Washington Post interviews with a few officers in the field confirm our previously stated thesis that Baghdad really has complete control over this operation. The Americans have their own angles, but even raids and positioning of armor have to be cleared by Baghdad. The Iraqis are not just deeply involved in the planning, they are giving the orders. The Post says US commanders are content with playing second fiddle: they want the Iraqis to handle this the best they can.

· Fourth From the Post story and many others we are confident that US commanders and field grade officers are perfectly aware the outcome in Iraq as a whole is going to be decided by political means and not with military force. The Big Stick has to be used, but only to get rebels to return to the table. We've been hearing about the incompetence of the Americans in Iraq, and have done our share in bringing it to our readers' attention. Nonetheless, we have been careful to distinguish between civilian Americans and military ones. From the start the military has shown a confident understanding of the complexities. US 3rd Army is about the most highly educated army to take the field, and people in general should avoid stereotyping  American officers a la Dr. Strangelove.

· IRAN & IRAQ Mr. Joseph Stefula has sent us two detailed articles from Defense and Foreign Affairs Daily about Iran's actions in Iraq. While we disagree with some parts of the DFAD thesis - that Iran is provoking a war with the US - the publication is worth reading because it contains much information on Iranian agents and fighters operating inside Iraq. Nonetheless, we would caution readers to be careful in accepting DFAD's thesis about these operations: read the publication for news and data.

· QUESTION FOR THE ASSASSINS Assassins failed to kill two targeted Iraq ministers. As usual they rushed to claim credit, and as usual their announcement is along the lines of "You scumbagas escaped but we have many arrows, and by the grace of the Divine, we will get you next time."

· Our question to the assassins is this: "Are you sure it wasn't the Divine's wish that you fail?"

0215 GMT August 24, 2004

· NAJAF Reader Joseag238 sends us a better summary of the Najaf situation than the major news agencies:

· According to KCAL news ch. 9,

US tanks, Bradley armored and Cavalry troops move toward to Al Imam shrine by 200 feet.

Several militant snipers and building were seized by 11th MEU, which advanced toward shrine by 170 feet, Reuters told KCAL via phone interview.

Najaf police captured 67 Sadr militant who were fleeing city.

US 1st CavDiv captured 209 Sadr militant after militant fail to storm police station in Kufa where suspects held at police station. Kufa is under control by US force, ING and Kufa police.

· AL-SADR CNN reports that Najaf police chief says Al-Sadr fled Najaf on August 15, and is now about 260 km north east of Baghdad, near the Iran border. The chief produced a piece of paper as proof, but CNN does not tell us what is on the paper.

0200 GMT August 23, 2004

· NAJAF Agencies report heavy fighting in Najaf and Kufa as US tightens cordon around shrine and militia suspends shrine handover modalities. We've mentioned earlier that the handover does not mean Al-Sadr militia will leave and disarm: Al-Sadr says they will continue protecting shrine against the Americans.

· Kufa is a suburb of Najaf, though it was a separate city before it and Najaf began to grow. Some Iraqis consider Kufa to be the more holy because Imam Ali was murdered at Kufa even though his mausoleum is at Najaf. Much of the action reported in the last few days has taken place at Kufa. This is true also of Sunday's battles.

· Readers should note that as the fighting edges closer to the shrine, there is a danger of damage not just by misdirected fire, but also by blast. The Marines have been using 155mm howitzers; the AC-130s have been using their 105mm howitzers; Apaches have been firing missiles and rockets; and Marine aviation has been dropping bombs.

· POSSIBLE REACTION TO ASSAULT ON SHRINE While every media source keeps repeating any damage to the shrine or attack on the shrine will result in widespread anger and unforeseen consequences in the Muslim world, we are starting to think a bit differently.

· Those that are going to be angry are already angry, and in our opinion most Muslims understand Al-Sadr is creating the problem here. We don't see much evidence that the Muslim world is angry at the Iraq government's attempts to reassert control over Najaf: not even the radicals can deny that Baghdad has to kick Al-Sadr out. The anger is because of the Americans: had the Americans not been in Iraq and Al-Sadr had revolted, we doubt the story would have made headlines.

· Now, we don't see how anger at the Americans can get worse. They are now parked at distances of 300 meters and up from the compound; heavy fighting has taken place within 800 meters; and the area is cordoned off. Why should the Muslim world get more angry if the Americans merely support an Iraqi attack? We may be quite wrong,  but we believe the worst has already come to pass.

· We do suggest, however, that the US/Iraq go in and finish the matter in six hours. It is now becoming more important to end the standoff than to worry about damage to the shrine.

· SOMALIA After years of anarchy, the Somali parliament met at Nairobi. Some differences remain to be ironed out, but the parliament is to proceed without representatives from Somaliland and Puntland, the breakaway provinces.

· IRAN REACTOR Debka.com says the criticality date for Iran's Russian-built reactor has slipped to October 2006.

0400 GMT August 22, 2004

· NAJAF CNN reports renewed gunfire around shrine on the night of 21st/22nd.

· AFP reports Al-Sadr militia is saying they will continue guarding the shrine even after a handover of the keys. [Emphasis ours.]

· The matter of the inventory has been resolved: we learn from agencies that Al-Sadr militia want a count done so they are not accused of stealing things. Ayatollah Sistani, however, refuses to accept the keys from the militia, saying it is not safe for him to travel to the shrine to supervise an inventory while the militia are in control. He wants the militia to withdraw first.

· In our opinion, there is a drama being played out behind the words. One explanation is that the Ayatollah is concerned about becoming a hostage to the militia. As of now, we are prepared to give the militia the benefit of the doubt and accept they want an inventory supervised by the highest authority to avoid later charges of theft. Again, this is our speculation; we are more looking for explanations to fit the facts than making an analysis/prediction based on information.

· As for guarding the shrine, may we respectfully point out to the militia that no one has asked them to guard the shrine, and that the people of Najaf seem to want just one thing from the militia: that it should depart Najaf. If our information is correct, the Badr Brigades militia was protecting the shrine before the Al-Sadr dust-up; if so, we are sure they will be happy to return to the job. The Badr Brigades are anti-Al-Sadr.

· We again note, with unhappiness, that we still don't understand how come the shrine was handed over to Al-Sadr militia in the first place.

· Incidentally, we also learn that Ayatollah Sistani remains in the UK: media has been talking about a hand over of keys to him, so we assumed he was back.

· WORLD BANK SAYS OIL TO FALL TO $30 A senior World Bank economist says that oil prices will shortfall fall to $30, setting himself at odds with others who say the price will shoot past $60. The economist's reasoning makes sense, to us at least. He says that at $50 oil that was unprofitable at $30  becomes worth extracting, and that will bring down the prices. He says the price increase is not because of production shortfalls, but because of speculation.

· The economist's point is something that has been made to us by an informal advisor to Orbat.com on oil matters. He has told us that in the past, every time in the past that industry has invested money in alternate sources or high-priced oil, oil prices have crashed, leaving industry with billions of dollars of losses. He says the energy companies' refusal to look for alternate sources/supplies is logical from their viewpoint.

· The issue then becomes: how much is the United States willing to pay to ensure a guaranteed oil supply? How much of a subsidy will the taxpayer accept to buy $50 oil even when $30 oil becomes freely available again? We have argued that the US is already paying possibly $70+ barrel of oil because so much of its defense posture is oriented toward protecting oil producers and oil lanes. So why not pay a subsidy to ensure secure oil supplies? The answer to this is simple: politics.

· To support secure $50 oil/alternate technologies etc., gasoline prices would have to be hiked to $3+/gallon. That will bring screams of pain from individuals, who after all, pay out of their pocket to fill up. Money going to defense is not something they directly relate to as going out of their pocket: the government takes its tax at source, so the majority of people never see that money anyway. The country looks at defense as a collective sacrifice. It looks at higher pump prices as an individual sacrifice.

· NEWS OF THE MILDLY ABSURD Now, we are very fond of the Poles. They are open, straight, big hearted and ready to share with someone in need, no matter how little they may have. They have a proud and brave history. So it hurts us to make the Poles in Iraq the butt of our News of the Absurd. We sincerely hope some journalist has quoted the spokesperson for the Polish Division in Iraq wrong.

· AFP reports that Polish troops intercepted a van and recovered the following:  two rocket-launchers, five anti-tank rounds, 80 82-millimetre mortar shells, six 62-millimetre mortar shells, five missiles and three Kalashnikov rifles. And: "Spokesmen for the division said the arsenal would have enabled insurgents to attack its bases for at least a month." As the Americans say, do the math. Six mortar rounds, enough for 1-2 minutes of sustained firing for one tube. 80 mortar rounds, more serious stuff; if the attackers fire 6 and then scoot, that suffices for 12 attacks with a single tube. 5 anti-tank rounds, enough for five shots at vehicles. So if the Poles' idea of an attack is a couple of mortar rounds each day and an occasional RPG shot, then yes, the material suffices for a month. But we wouldn't call action at that scale an attack. And note the spokesperson said "bases". If there are three bases, then each is receiving one round per day. That's even less of an attack. Its the equivalent of a belch between bites of dinner.

· DEBKA ON TURKEY-ISRAEL  Debka.com says the Turks have refused to give Israeli aircraft over f light rights in the event the Israelis attack Iran's nuclear facilities; moreover, Debka says Turkey is bound to provide access under the terms of the mutual security pact. We are unsure that the Turkish refusal - if the agreement allows it and if the Turks have gone back on the agreement - makes the slightest difference to a hypothetical Israeli attack.

· WANA, NORTH WEST FRONTIER PROVINCE Jang of Pakistan reports that the Pakistan Air Force flew three jet and two attack helicopter sorties against militant positions in the Wana area, and artillery was also used. Jang says army reinforcements have reached Wana in 30 trucks.

· The problem with the last report is that when we checked similar previous reports, we found the media was confusing resupply convoys with reinforcements.

0430 GMT August 21, 2004

· NAJAF Al-Sadr militia has handed the keys to the shrine of Imam Ali to Grand Ayatollah Sistani, but has no left the shrine. They are there as pilgrims, say the militia, and will leave if asked to. There is an accounting process for the shrine assets to be completed.

· This story raises more questions than it answers. First, what is the big deal about the shrine's keys? Second, how come Al-Sadr has them in the first place? Why does he now have to account for the shrine assets, including gold? These questions only Iraqis can answer, and we fear we will not easily learn the answers.

· Be that as it may, no sign of any disarmament. Baghdad continues to insist it will not negotiate; Al-Sadr continues to insist he will not accept Baghdad's terms.

· FALLUJAH  At last some answers to the mystery of why the US has been repeatedly bombing Fallujah. Some of the air strike have been delivered against militant anti-aircraft. We continue to look for indicators that might provide clues to the Fallujah situation; the anti-AA strikes have to be seen as a sign that something is up. The US was not over flying Fallujah to the extent it is now. The US could be drawing out hidden AA sites, a common tactic prior to an assault. AC-130 gunships have been in action over Fallujah.

· BALUCHISTAN For once we can share news from our own sources with readers, instead of merely using other sources. Readers will recall that we were baffled as to why opposition MPs in Pakistan's parliament were claiming major Pakistan Army operations were underway in Baluchistan while the Government was saying nothing unusual was happening.

· We learn that the US has been working on its Baluch bases; to provide protection the Pakistan Army has been constructing cantonments [bases] for its troops. This has aggravated the locals, as has also the Pakistan Army's continuing anti-Taliban/anti Al Qaeda operations. The Pakistan Army in its turn is putting down the locals. Our source opined that the local Baluchis don't have a chance against the Pakistan Army; we agree.