0330 GMT December 31, 2004

· NO NEWS DAY With the media's attention turned on the Indian Ocean tsunami, little others news is getting reported. Tragic as the disaster is, we wish the media at least would keep things in perspective. In 1970, half-million East Pakistanis (now Bangladesh) perished in a cyclone. Your editor was in the region at the time, and personally attest that little attention was paid. This tsunami is an example of how the manner in which media reports changes reality. Objectively, the 1970 cyclone was a much worse disaster. The world media was not present in any significant number, so we have a situation of the tree in the forest falling and no one to hear it etc. Subjectively, because of the media, the tsunami is being awarded superlatives. Lets also not forget the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, PRC. Official figures gave 242,000 dead; unofficial figures went up to three times that.

· IRAQ Two incidents caught our attention. In the first, insurgents lured Iraqi police in Baghdad to a house and then blew up the house, killing 7 policemen and perhaps 21 civilians in surrounding houses. In Mosul, insurgents ambushed US reinforcements headed toward a previous incident; 25 insurgents were killed, and 1 American solider.

· The first incident is of interest because it shows the insurgents have become desperate in the extreme. You do not kill 21 civilians whose only crime was to live adjacent to the ambush house. Insurgents depend on the civilian populace; if you keep blowing up the populace, you are going to alienate the population. Of course, several reports that have received scant attention say that's exactly what's been happening.

· The second incident is of interest because it was meticulously planned and executed, the Americans themselves remarked on the high level of organization and command and control involved. Still, it did the insurgents no good. The minute US reinforcements began taking fire, airpower was called in, and then it was curtains for the insurgents. Of particular interest is a report that a US Stryker detonated seven sets of IEDs laid along a road the insurgents knew would be used by reinforcements. Clever planning, and some serious redundancy so that even if some of the IEDs were detected or exploded, the others would cause serious damage. But for all the planning that went into this, nothing happened because one Stryker destroyed all the bombs along that particular stretch.

· So its of no use to focus on the insurgents' learning curve. Steep as it may be, the US's learning curve is steeper. The insurgents are still hopeless losers.

· What about the mess hall? It now appears that US troops were seriously negligent and that despite widespread awareness that tight base security was needed, people were still acting carelessly. Okay, the insurgents got lucky. But the Americans are not going to make the same mistake again.

· RUSSIA-PRC EXERCISES Agencies say Russia and the PRC are going to stage joint military exercises. An intriguing development, but perhaps less so than another: Russia has offered PRC 20% of the recently seized Yukos oil company. This follows on the heels of PRC and Iran penciling a multi billion dollar/multi decade agreement for the Chinese to buy Iranian gas. We'd mentioned this earlier: Iran is making an end run against possible US/EU sanctions over its nuclear programs. More important is the proposition that as PRC grows, so does its need for hydrocarbons. China's trade is expected to hit $1 trillion in 2005, making PRC third after the US and Japan. That trade, including hydrocarbons, has to be protected. Are the Americans sure they're doing the right thing by further downsizing their fleets? Most immediately 1 aircraft carrier of 12 is proposed to be cut, some plans speak of decommissioning as many as 3 carriers.

· MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH...  So it would be reasonable to presume that the Indians are scrambling to counterbalance growing PRC military strength. Reasonable it may be, but you'd presume wrong. India is spending its time on asinine projects like preventing delivery of 20 older model F-16s to Pakistan, and on raiding the porn industry after a schoolboy used his vid-phone to capture him having sex with a female classmate, and then thoughtfully making the film available to his friends, who gave it to their friends, who gave it to...etc.

· Your editor in the 1970s and 1980s used to be one of very few people in India who was in a position to know a bit about how the PRC looked at a possible Indian threat. Shocking but true: the PLA was not expending any thought on worrying about India even then.

· Your editor recalls an analysis he did in the late 1980s, which showed that Indian forces against PRC in Tibet were so much superior that it would probably have taken the Indian air Force 72 hours to knock the PLAAF in Tibet out, crater all airbases, and block all transport routes from the mainland. It would have taken the Indian army 3 to 10 days to capture Lhasa, depending on the plan used. And it would have taken India 72 hours to recover Eastern Ladakh, which India lost to China in 1961-62. As the Indian Army and Air Force had absolutely zero interest in the analysis - ironically the study was funded by a disarmament think tank - your editor could get no feedback, not one little bit. On a visit to the Directorate of Military Operations, the sole comment was "Interesting. Have some more tea and sandwiches." Your editor does not drink tea or coffee, so he focused on the sandwiches, which were excellent.

· So then your editor trotted off to the Chinese Embassy to see his pals in the Military Attaché's office. In those days you did not (a) go to the Chinese Military Attaché's office, and (b) if you did, you'd better have been prepared to be grilled by the Indian counter-intel lot. It is a fact that your editor never had trouble with the Indians, and it wasn't because he was working for them. It was because they thought him to be eccentric to the point he was simply a harmless nutcase, not worth expending energy on, particularly when it got to 120 F in the shade.

· So in the lavish, palace like setting of some drawing room - one of many in the Chinese embassy - your editor had this exchange with the military attaché himself. The attaché was a very quiet, humble man who pretended he had no more importance than the junior gardener on the grounds, and certainly no more intelligent, but who knew everything that was worth knowing. "Did you have a chance to read my analysis?" I asked.

· The attaché - speaking through the interpreter who was another sharp cookie - politely murmured: "Of course, and with utmost care. Another soda and a sandwich, perhaps". More soda and sandwiches presented - at least the Military Attaché was considerate enough to keep in mind your editor did not drink tea or coffee. Lengthy silence. You cannot rush the Chinese. Silence extends. Finally the Attaché murmurs: "Most interesting. But politically speaking..." Here he trailed off. There was no need for him to say more, because your editor had had the conversation with many generations of PLA attaches.

· Decoded, this is what he said: "War is nine-tenths political and one-tenth military. The Indian military is formidable and much more advanced than ours. But the political will is so lacking, we feel comfortable protecting Tibet with a few interceptors, a couple of understrength divisions, and a handful of border troops." Later your editor was to learn the understrength divisions were already scheduled for reduction to brigades, so little did the Chinese worry about Indian military capability.

· Now its almost 20 years later, and your editor has no plans to return to India. If he does, he has zero intention of visiting the Chinese military attaché. If the above is what they thought of India when the military balance in Tibet favored India by a factor of 3 to 5, we hate to think what the attaché would say now that the PLA's capability equals India's, with plans to reverse the former imbalance to 3-5 against India.

· Unwanted advice to Government of India. Can you kindly get officials to stop salivating at the film and others that officers have seized from the porn industry and leave these youngsters alone? What's more important: the rising threat from China and the 1000 other equally serious problems India faces, or two school kids doing what young people do naturally? Here your editor slaps himself on the wrist six times for asking such a stupid question. Of course what two youngsters were doing is much more important...

0300 GMT December 30, 2004

· IRAN-VENEZUELA Joseag238 tells us that on December 16 KCAL-TV carried a report that Iran had asked Venezuela for "bases". An associate of Joseag238 speculates: could the request be for stationing missiles capable of reaching the US? If all this is true, then we have nothing to fear from the mullahs of Iran. If this is the best they can come up with, clearly they'd be better off playing Go Fish with a bunch of 5-year olds - more chance of winning. And if Mr. Chavez agrees, then its goodbye to him too.

· Again, assuming the report is correct: there is something called the Monroe Doctrine, which specifically says the US will not tolerate any threat to its security from Central/South America, or from a foreign power using the region as a platform to threaten the US. The last time there was a real threat was from Che Guevara, and we know what happened to him.

· Before Che, there was the Soviet introduction of IRBMs into Cuba, and we know how that turned out too.

· One of the great foreign policy myths is that actually Cuba 1962 was a victory for Moscow because the US agreed to pull IRBMs out of Italy and Turkey in exchange for the Soviets getting their missiles out of Cuba. The reason this is a myth is that US IRBMs in those NATO countries were slated to stand-down as more and more Polaris SSBNs took to sea. So the US gained a lot at the no cost. But - here was the genius of US diplomacy - to help the Soviets save face, the US quietly  "allowed" there had been a trade. Some scholars who didn't know better concluded the Soviets had pulled off a coup.

· SADDAM TRIAL AFP says former US attorney general Ramsey Clark, well known for his leftist activism has joined Saddam's defense team. We personally thought Saddam should have been publicly executed after his capture, but now that Iraq has decided to give him a trial, he is entitled to his defense lawyers and Mr. Clark is entitled to be one such.

· If, however, the US/Iraq wimp out on the question of where the money for the defense is coming from, then both fully deserve every misery this trail will bring for the good guys. Saddam's daughters should not have a plugged nickel to their name. If they and other Iraqis are willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars for Saddam's defense - as the daughters are believed to have said they are ready to do - Baghdad's first step should be to serve all members of Saddam's defense teams requiring them to account form where the money came. If these people are using money looted from Iraq, they are violating the laws of Iraq. Off with their heads.

· Yes, anti-Americans around the world will scream foul play. Question is, whose country is this anyway? What right does the US have to dictate to Iraq how Saddam has to be handled? What business is it of the EU and the Human Rights lot? The more fair play the US/Iraq gives, the less the Arabs will respect them. As for the American critics: does Washington honestly thing their minds can be changed by a "fair" trial? The critics are saying the US has no business to be in Iraq in the first place. So how can any Saddam trial be fair?

· US NAVAL MOVEMENTS IN TSUNAMI'S WAKE The US Navy's USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battlegroup is enroute to the South China Sea to help in relief efforts in Thailand. Meanwhile, the USS Bon Homme Richard expeditionary strike group has set course for the Bay of Bengal. US Navy P-3 Orions and USAF C-130s are providing reconnaissance and transport help.

· The US Marines' III MEF is setting up HQ at Utapo Air Base in northern Thailand to coordinate the US relief effort. Utapo is, of course, the famous giant air base from US B-52s and other aircraft regularly struck Vietnam during Indochina II.

· In case anyone is interested: this particular Bon Homme Richard is the latest in a line of US Navy ships stretching back to the War of the American Revolution. The Continental Navy's first commissioned officer, John Paul Jones, got into a sea fight of Northeast England  with HMS Serapis. The latter battered the Richard so badly that Jones decided the only chance he  had was to board the Serapis. When the Richard came alongside Serapis, the Americans had no flag - the flag had been shot down. The Serapis' captain, seeing the lack of a flag, hailed Jones, asking if he was surrendering. It is then that Jones uttered the immortal line "No, for I have not yet begun to fight!". Different times, different men.

· The Americans captured the Serapis and Richard's crew transferred to the Royal Navy ship. What is often left out of popular accounts  is that the convoy Serapis was escorting, and that Richard wanted, escaped safely. And what is also often left out is that along with the enormous bravery of the Americans, it was a French Marine sharpshooter detachment on the Richard that helped make victory possible. First the Marines prevented sailors on Serapis from breaking the deadly embrace within which Richard had clasped Serapis, then they shot down eleven men at the Serapis' wheel. And as a footnote, once he saw his convoy was safe, Serapis' captain personally took down her flag and presented it to Jones. Different times, different men.

· INDIAN OCEAN DISASTER We received sad news today from the office of Mr. Richard M. Bennett. He has been associated with Orbat.com since its inception and we are currently working together on a big new project. He was in the Far East to interview for a university position and due back in the UK. Several of his family members and friends were in the areas struck by the tsunami, and he has had to immediately return to the East

0300 GMT December 29, 2004

· IRAQ Killings of government officers continues. Yesterday the toll included 24 policemen. For a long time now the terrorists have figured out that attacking US forces is unproductive and have been busy killing anyone trying to do something for their country, including professors, teachers, judges, lawyer, what have you. We've still to see a comment decrying this violence in the American papers. Washington Post has - correctly, we feel - written several editorials about Dafur, many of them lead editorials. WP has also said the US must stay the course in Iraq. But when it comes to the terrorists, they have a free pass in the WP.

· OUTDONE AGAIN At Orbat, com we find that every time we take a strong position on an issue, something even worse turns up that makes our example look pathetic. Yesterday we condemned the Associated Press for trafficking with terrorists to get its news. Today Mike Thompson sends us a piece from another blog, which makes AP look like 4th grade naughty boys.

· Apparently AFP was tipped off by insurgents that the latter were going to down an aircraft landing at Baghdad IAP. So off with the terrorists went two of AFP's finest. Turned out that the terrorists had two Strellas (SAM-7s) they were going to fire at a DHL plane. But the terrorists had no clue what DHL meant. The AFP aces helpfully explained DHL meant aircraft carrying mail for American troops. So our heroes shot off their two missiles, with cries of God is Great. Oopsies whopsies said the AFP aces: turned out it was a civilian aircraft - and luckily both missiles missed, said the aces.

· Now lets go through this, as simply as possible, for the great minds at AFP - an agency we regard highly, by the way, so this is not personal like it is for your editor with the Washington Post. We take more of our press services material from AFP than from any other agency. Nonetheless, it appears to us we must speak slowly and clearly, based on our theory the higher the IQ, the lower the common sense.

· Shooting down any civil aircraft is a crime. AFP not just watched while a crime was being committed, its reporters helped the terrorists with information. The reporters are criminally liable in two different ways. Then AFP ran the story, to enhance its prestige and profits, thus benefiting from a crime it participated in as a willing observer and by providing information.

· Now supposing one of us at Orbat.com or among our readers - mere mortals, we - were to do the above. Our first stop would be many lengthy conversations with us as the guests of the FBI, CIA and so on, and our hosts are not known for their gentle touch. Our next stop would be an unbearably unpleasant American jail, committal to which - in our opinion at least - is a state crime. Our stay would be lengthy, and after a few words from the wardens to the trustees, and the trustees to the inmates, we'd be lucky to leave just with a few beatings and being raped a few times. Then we'd be in court, and then we'd be back in jail for many, many years, with the chances of parole being somewhat remote. The Divine forbid our terrorists actually hit the plane and downed it. The situation would be far, far worse for us.

· So is all this happening to AFP? No, Sir, it is not. AFP, like other media, says it was just doing its job, citing the people's right to know and all that. If Orbat.com was to take the matter up with AFP, we have no doubt we would be arrogantly dismissed by AFP as thugs and fascists and all that.

· Okay, so along with others we have ritually done our moaning and weeping at the perfidy of the press. The question is simple. Why are these journalists not being prosecuted, indeed, when they are not helping terrorists, why is the US military being required to keep them alive to the best of its ability? If we go and settle scores with the journalists and AFP for aiding and abetting terrorism, and gaining from such  - and we as people have a right to do that to AFP as much as AFP says the people - that's us - have a right to know - if we settle scores we will be labeled criminals and the state will punish us. So all we can do is ask the state to take action.

· No guesses as to what the state will tell us: freedom of the press and all that, old boy, wuff wuff and hey ho and so on.

· Now when the state refuses to act against criminals, what is our recourse as ordinary citizens? Rousseau said we as people make a pact with the state: we give up some individual rights to the state for the collective good, and in return the state protects us. Seems to us the good old GUS - or USG as us foreigners call it - is failing its duties not just to all of us as citizens of the world, but more appallingly, to its own soldiers who are dying or suffering horrible wounds.

· The state is not keeping its part of the deal, and for once your editor has no answers as to what is to be done.

· IRAQ FOLLIES We're not sure if we should be amused or exasperated, but some US Congressmen and officials are suggesting the Sunnis need not just fair representation in Iraq's parliament, perhaps they should be given more than their fair share of representation so their minority rights are not ridden over rough-shod.

· The Iraq government has not-so-gently told these gentlemen to MYOB - that's sixth grade schoolgirl talk from when your editor was young, and it means "Mind Your Own Business". Good for the Iraqis.

· If the US is so worried about the rights of the Sunnis, we've already said many times: arrange for a federation, ally with the Sunnis and the Kurds, and be done with it. After the Shias take power their first order of business will be to kill every Sunni terrorist/insurgent/sympathizer, and their second order of business will be to kick the US out of Iraq.

· Are we being too cynical on the second point? After all, Iran is Shia, and its easy to concede the US will have no trouble dealing with the semi-secular Iranians who are expected to take power after the mullahs fall. Why can't the same thing happen in Iraq? Well, we suppose it could happen, just as it could happen that your editor wakes up tomorrow and finds a line of desirable young women aged 25 to 45 at his door, each of the women determined to - lets say - get to know your editor better. And if someone says to the editor "in your dreams", your editor will retort: "who's being cynical now?".

· But seriously, are we saying the US made a mistake going into Iraq? Not at all. The job had to be done, the US is the only one that could/can do it. Create the conditions necessary for the Iraqi people to gain and keep their own freedom, and watch the fun and games in the Islamic world. But: the US needs to do the job and get out. If it wants something from Iraq, it has an excellent chance the Kurds will support the US, there's an excellent chance the Sunnis will align with the US, and there is little chance the Shias will oblige.

0530 GMT December 28, 2004

· ANOTHER NO NEWS DAY We're not sure if its the holiday season that is leading to so many slow or no news days one after another, or if the world is going through a temporary phase of quiet. For many of our readers, our analyses are quite boring and we sympathize: we find them as boring to write. But when there is nothing to report, then perhaps there's no harm in throwing in a little analysis.

· ASSOCIATED PRESS IN BED WITH IRAQI TERRORISTS Mike Thompson sends us news that originated with Bill Reggio's Fourth Rail blog that will not surprise anyone who knows non-print media people. Turns out AP has all but admitted that its using Iraqi photo-journalists who are intimate with the terrorists in order to get good pictures. The specific provocation is the picture taken by an Iraqi working for AP of terrorists murdering three Iraqi government workers in the middle of a busy artery in Baghdad. People immediately began asking: how did the Iraqi know to be there at the right time? Turns out the lot planning the murders told him where to come.

· AP says terrorists also want their story to be told, and it has to use Iraqis with ties to the terrorists/insurgents because no one else can get close to them. Hmmmm. So we are back to the delusion of the reporter as a passive neutral without loyalty to any nation or anything else other than Getting the Story. This is one of the most moronic conceits the tribe of journalists has come up with, and the debate has been raging for years now. Suffice it to say that the American people, at least, do not believe their media should be legitimizing terrorists, and this is one reason of money that the American media is steadily losing credibility.

· So: lets hark back to Pearl Harbor, and more specifically to the Bataan Death March. By the moral reasoning of today's media, American journalists should have been right there telling the Japanese side of the story, and Hitler's too, and Stalin's as well, to say nothing of the Japanese soldiers who slaughtered several million Chinese. Oh yes, interviews with the German death camp commandants would have been an absolute must.

· So: what would have happened to our little preppy boys and girls of the AP sixty years ago? The best outcome would have been to get arrested and thus be safe from the mobs of soldiers and civilians that would have been screaming to tear our little intrepid newsboys and newsgirls from limb to limb.

· You are welcome to go out there and report the news from any side you like. But the United States, and the US military in particular, is then under no moral compulsion to help you in any way. By putting forward the enemy's view - these people are killing American soldiers - you become a traitor to America. Sure, sure, you are called to bigger things than America. Your work is so important that national loyalties are petty. But you know what? Don't come crying when an American soldier puts a 5.56mm round through your colleague's head, the next time your are returning from telling the enemy's viewpoint. That soldier has a higher calling too, which is to kill America's enemies. You want to be a whore, please go ahead. Its a free country.

· Sorry - we apologize to the men and women who are whores. They're doing an honest job, and they're not hurting anyone. Wrong simile/metaphor.

· The laughable thing about this value neutral business is that you are living in a democracy, and you demand to be respected/protected. Guess who's going to among the first to get theirs if the terrorists win? The women journalists, and then its going to be the men journalists. Now isn't reporting what the terrorists have to say a productive way to spend your time if you happen to be a journalist? Arrogance we at Orbat.com can forgive. But people with IQs lower than than of a vulture we cannot.

· Ooops. We did it again. Apologies to vultures. Did not mean to hurt your feelings. You are a critical part of nature and  perform a very important function. In doing so you actually help life thrive. Now you journalists please tell us: what function are you performing? Gosh, we cant come up with a single valid simile/metaphor because everyone and everything in creation does something useful. These darn journalists are not making it easy for us to categorize them. Will have to come up with new definitions.

· SAUDI UPS OIL RESERVE ESTIMATES Saudi Arabia says its probable it has 200 billion barrels more oil than its earlier projection of 270 billion barrels reserve, already the biggest in the world.

· Oil production and politics determines the shape of our world to a greater extent than any other factor today, and we truly wish we knew more about the world of oil. An oil executive based overseas had promised to occasionally enlighten our readers, unfortunately, his work load is such aside from one anonymous article he  has been unable to contribute. So please take the below brief analysis as nothing more than at attempt to explain why this news is important.

· Iraq's oil reserves - we believe about 80 billion barrels - are hugely understated. No one knows how much more oil Iraq has, but it may be in the hundreds of billions of barrels. So one aspect of Saudi's announcement is to clearly warn Iraq that no matter how important it thinks it may become, the big guy on the block is Saudi. This is geared not the Iraqis, but to the Americans. The latter have clearly indicated they are working to break OPEC, and have been busy as beavers putting down firm stakes all over the world where there is oil. The US diplomatic and military assistance take over of Black Africa is one example of US diversification .

· Saudi is also to increase its pumping capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day. That is to tell the world that no matter what, Saudi will be the swing producer.

· The message is aimed not just at the Americans. The Russians too are coming up very quickly, and as is the case for Iraq, its likely its oil reserves - or at least its hydrocarbon reserves are vastly understated. Russia plans to build up to an export capacity of 10 million barrels a day with Western money and know how. Saudi, preempting with its 12.5 million target is also reminding the Russians: don't get too big for your boots.

· The huge advantage that Saudi has is that its oil is about the cheapest in the world to extract. If the Saudis crash the market, say to $20-25/barrel, people like the Russians and their western partners will be up the creek etc., because Russian oil is much more expensive. Saudi could lower the price to $10/barrel and still make a tidy profit, that price would ruin just about any non-Arab producer.

· By the way, a few months ago people were talking of $80/barrel oil. Now they're saying in the summer of 2005 it go go down to $25/barrel.  This underlines a very important our oil executive made in his one and only article: one reason no one has developed alternatives is that anything below $40/barrel makes additional investment for oil and alternatives unprofitable. And guess who makes sure oil prices stay just low enough that major investments in alternatives are impossible? None other than our friends the camel jockeys, i.e., the Saudis. Like them or not, they are no one's fools. Any why should that surprise us? Their managers are American or American educated.

· ISLAMIC VERSUS ISLAMIST Richard Pipes of Harvard fame known earlier for his tough stand against the Soviets and now against Islamic fundamentalism, says its wrong to use the term "Islamic" when referring to terrorists. The terrorists are a tiny fraction of followers of Islam; moreover they are perverting Islam simply to establish good old fashioned tyrannies. So Mr. Pipes suggests using the term Islamist. That seems fair and reasonable to us. We've always felt uncomfortable with the Islamic label. Your editor knows many Muslims, and in all his life he has met only one who subscribed to the terrorist creed.

0600 GMT December 27, 2004

· ONE MORE FOR AMERICA With 60% of precincts reporting, the opposition candidate in Ukraine was leading 56% to 40% says AFP. Pre-voting polls had predicted a 15 to 20 point margin of victory. True democracy has come to Ukraine. There are quiet American men and women who played their part in this revolution, doubtless they are giving themselves a few moments to savor their success.

· As for what role exactly the US played, well, its for Americans to tell the story, not for us. We know none of the close details, but we're willing to wager that the cash cost to America was probably between $30 and $50 million, if that. Of course, that's not a fair way of counting costs, because people have been working for years for this day. Still, its likely that over the last decade less has been spent than is spent in one day in Iraq.

· But would this victory have been possible had Ukraine's Government, backed by Russia, decided not to permit a fair vote? In 1956 in Hungary, and in 1968 in Czechoslovakia, Warsaw Pact tanks crushed revolution, just as in 1945-46 Soviet tanks snuffed out many democracies. When hard men play this game, the democratic revolution becomes impossible.

· So it is in Iraq. Does anyone seriously believe the people of Iraq don't want democracy? If they believe that, they are saying Iraqis are less human than other people. Of course the Iraqis want democracy - democracy is the natural condition of humans. But for decades their hopes have been crushed, and if the US had not gone in, their hopes would have remained crushed. Yes, America has material interests in a free Iraq. But America is sacrificing blood and treasure also because America genuinely believes all humanity must have democracy as its right.

· There is no other country in history that has done more to bring freedom to the world. All of us owe a huge debt to America. How sad, then, that so many elites around the world - yes, elites in free countries, countries that America helped free and helped keep free - hate America so much for what it is doing to bring democracy to the world. How sad that so many Americans hate their own country so much that they cannot appreciate or even understand what their country has done for freedom, and what it continues to do.

· Let freedom flow like the waters of a mighty river. The circle of those who would oppress their people diminishes every year. Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine - 2004 has been a very good year indeed. Even if it takes a hundred years to free the Islamic world - and we predict it will take no more than 10 - the outcome is very much worth the cost. Unasked for advice to the petty tyrants in the Islamic world, in North Korea, Cuba, and most of all, in China. Get out of the way while you can, because that onrushing river cannot be stopped, by you or anyone else. Get out of the way or be drowned, and forgotten like a bad dream is when the new day dawns.

· AND THANK YOU, OLD EUROPE We suppose we could be cynical and say Old Europe did its part - a very major part, perhaps the major part - in bringing freedom to Ukraine because it advances Old Europe's security and because Ukrainians are white. We could also say this victory cost Old Europe very little, but when it comes to freeing yellow, black, or brown people, and where the cost is high, Old Europe is nowhere to be seen.

· There would be much truth in our cynicism. Nonetheless, Old Europe has its idealists too, and regardless of what Old Europe gets from a free Ukraine, it too believes in humanity's right to be free. So from our side, at least, many thanks also to Old Europe. You redeemed yourself in the Balkans, now in Ukraine. By all means sit back a moment and enjoy your drink or your smoke.

· But don't make it more than a moment. The non-white people need you, too. They are humans as much as Ukrainians.  You have a debt to them too, not because of imperialism, but because you are favored and they are not. If you let America go to it alone, America will do so. But for sure America, the oppressed, and us at Orbat.com, would be mighty glad to have you as a partner in this crusade, a crusade not for religion, but for the simple right of people to be free.

0230 GMT December 26, 2005

· AFRICA MILITARY NEWS [Thanks to BBC] President Bush signed the Sudan Sanctions Bill, which gives him more leverage in forcing Khartoum to settle the Dafur problem peacefully. The President also now has authority to spend $300-million to help Dafur; some of that money will be used to support the African Union force

· UN investigations in Ivory Coast show appalling human rights violations in the last two years by government and rebels alike. Mass executions, loot, rape, and ordinary murder seem to be the all the rage. The evidence includes film coverage, and is to be made available when and if Ivorians from both sides are charged with war crimes.

· Fighting between rival government forces in DR Congo has subsided. Meantime an arms monitoring group says weapons are being freely smuggled across the eastern DRC borders, and blames the UN for not having troops better trained in monitoring arms flows.

· In our opinion, this report's arrogance is breathtaking. While most nations now have troops they train for peace-keeping operations, soldiers are still soldiers. They are trained to fight wars, not monitor arms smuggling in foreign countries, especially where they find themselves under tight rules. The UN does not have any soldiers of its own, and makes do with what it gets. Blaming it for these sort of  perceived shortcomings is mindlessly stupid. We thought reports such as this one were the specialty of Americans, but now must concede that the British - a Parliamentary committee is the author - are right up there with our American friends in the low IQ department. If Parliament feels so strongly about the inadequacies of the 3rd world armies who primarily fill UN missions, why isn't it pushing to send British troops to DRC? Ooops, we forgot: The British are overstretched. But why are they overstretched? Because the same uneducated people who produce these reports also have forced cuts so severe on British forces that one brigade in Iraq and a few battalions in other places around the world has overextended the British Army. We expect very little from the Europeans, but it's sad to see the British go the same way: moral outrage, talk, more hot air, unrealistic solutions, and when the times comes to actually do something, excuse us, please, we have lunch to do. Bah.

· HONDURAS The Government conducted a show of force in several cities as it searched for the persons responsible for the bus atrocity. One man has been arrested; he is a member of a Honduran gang. Apparently there is some sort of competition between his gang and another to see who can kill more civilians. Meanwhile, the Honduran government has been pushing for the right to use the death penalty against gang members, something that upset the gangs. This gives the idea for a new competition: Honduran judges can compete to see who sends more gang members to the gallows.

· In a vague sort of way, we can understand the motives of insurgents and terrorists who target civilians. We cannot understand, or accept, the motives of these gangs. First their members abused the hospitality of the United States and disgraced their communities. Hispanic immigrants are the new Irish in America: they work harder than anyone else and do their absolute best to get a better life for stay-behind family and for their children. But the gang members are scum. After being deported, they now feel they have the right to destroy their own countries. There is only one way to deal with such people just as there is only one to deal with terrorists: kill them before they kill you.

· IRAQ Reader Mike Thompson sends us an article from the Jerusalem Post in which a US officials says the US is contemplating crossing the Syrian border to capture or kill insurgent leaders and insurgents using Syria as sanctuary.

· The nice thing about the US is that it seldom wastes times in idle threats. Yes, this threat is part of psychological campaign against Syria to act against the insurgents. But threats have meaning only if you are willing to follow through. The Syrians as usual are bleating about how no terrorists operate from their territory. If they don't get more serious, readers can expect that the US will make a couple of raids, perhaps without making the news public. Big "Kilroy Was Here" signs will be left to give a hint to Damascus.

· What we don't understand is why the US hasn't smacked Syria a few times already. Something we do know nothing about seems to be in play.

· Incidentally, your editor never thought the day would come when he'd say something nice about Assad, the father of the present president. In a world of serious tyrants, to us he looked like a pathetic tyrant wannabe. His terrorism, his oppression, his corruption hit the people of Syria very hard, but that still left him a nobody compared to other tyrants. But watching the bumbling of the son, we have to say whatever the old boy's faults, he was tough and ruthless, he played for high stakes, and he survived. The son is such a buffoon and such a puff pastry that Hollywood should be offering him deals to forget Syria and come act in slapstick movies. One can respect a hard man, however evil. One cannot respect a leader who looks like he'd be happier dressing in womens' clothes than running a dictatorship. We have the same problem with DPRK's Beloved Son. Anyone who forces the state media to constantly affirm he was born on a mountaintop by divine means, and the whole swans and flowers and rainbows bit, needs serious professional help. This supposed to be the 21st Century. Why are we tolerating people like Beloved Son and Assad Junior? Lets display some good taste by seeing them off the world stage.

· US has captured two senior Zaraqawi aides in Iraq.

· A few hundred Fallujah residents have been allowed inside the city. Apparently most take one look at their house and their neighborhood and get the heck back out of Fallujah. From the pictures we've seen, cant say we blame them.

· Quite by-the-way. When US troops were fighting in Fallujah last month, a big worry was booby-trapped cars left behind by the insurgents. The US had a simple solution: every single car parked in Fallujah was shredded before US troops entered the street. Now, finally something the Americans have done something that we can feel pleased about. This is the way Americans used to work in their nothing-can-stop-us and no-problem and can-do days. Simple, innovative, big solutions.

0330 GMT December 25, 2004

· HONDURAS VIOLENCE AP reports that the criminal underworld in Honduras, which claims 100,000 gang members, attacked a public bus killing 28 civilians. The attack is seen as an escalation against the government's zero-tolerance policy against gangs.

· We mention this incident for two reasons. First we had narco-terrorism, then came fundamentalist Islamic terrorism, and now we have plain criminal terrorism. This is a new dimension to the security threats to nation-states.

· And we wonder how much of the Honduras problem with gangs is an outcome of the Law of Unintended Consequences. The sharp rise in legal and illegal Hispanic immigration into the United States has led, over the last two decades, to the formation of hundreds of Hispanic gangs with total memberships running into the hundreds of thousands. The US has cracked down hard, and any arrested gang member who is not a US citizen is deported after serving his sentence. So we have tens of thousands of young men, hardened in the US, now back in their own countries where policing is not as effective as in the United States. No surprise that they have gone back to doing the only thing they know how to do, which is organized crime.

· The United States, as is well known, has an ability to tolerate serious crime at levels that would bring down any other western government. The reasons for this are complex. In the interests of political correctness, Americans are not permitted to state the obvious. If you take murder, for example, and separate the rates for whites and non-whites, you will find US rates for murder committed by whites is in line with other countries where guns are easily available, such as Canada and Australia. The same thing goes for drugs: the great majority of persons in jail for drugs are non-white. We are not interested in getting into a debate about the socio-economic reasons for this. Your editor lived/worked in an all-minority, specifically in a black American, environment for 10 years and he has intimate knowledge of the problems blacks face and of the problems they create for themselves. We are merely pointing out some facts.

· We mention this primarily from a national security viewpoint. Crime has gone global, multi-cultural, internet age etc etc. A big part of the insurgency in Iraq is tied up with criminal organizations; we hear it said that European organizations are getting involved. And fighting well-organized gangs these days is harder than fighting insurgencies.

· RUSSIA FIRES TOPOL-M The 4th last test of the Russian Topol-M mobile ICBM has taken place. Russia has 40 missiles deployed, a minute number compared to what it could have deployed in the days of empire. Money is so short that acquiring even 3-6 a year has proved difficult. But with Mr. Putin vowing to get respect for Russia, it is possible that the deployment rate will pickup. The new missile the Russians have been threatening may be a development of the Topol-M. Presently the missile carries a single warhead, the design permits a MIRV payload of three warheads. If readers suspect that all this activity on the almost defunct Russian strategic weapons programs has something also to do with the activation of the US ABM system, we'd guess they suspect correctly.

· Incidentally, if you want to talk about deploying weapons without full testing, talk to a Russian scientist or military person. The stories they will tell will raise the hair of most normal people. The point is that critics of the US ABM system would do well to heed Admiral Gorshkov's famous saying: "Better is the enemy of good enough". If US critics not just of the ABM system but any big weapons program were to have their way, the systems would be deployed just in time to become obsolete.

· US F-22 and B-2 PROGRAMS Reader Paul Danish asks us to remind everyone that the B-2 cost of $1 billion per unit is a program cost; but we are uncertain as to how many years of spares are included in that figure. He also notes that the F-22 program was intended for purchase of 720 aircraft. If the US is going to buy half as many, the cost per fighter is going to go up by four times.

· This is a story retold again and again. Part of the reason for program escalation costs is that the US military aims for giant leaps in capability rather than incremental ones, and many of the technologies needed work out to be much more difficult and expensive than first assumed. The lack of competition in the weapons field is another factor. But a third big factor is the constant attack every weapons program goes through: with ultra-critical scrutiny being the norm, its quite routine for anti-military interests to force cuts in programs, which pushes up the cost, which leads to more cuts.

· By no means do we imply our simplistic framework is all there is on the issue. Nonetheless, we get truly bugged when people start saying: "This is not needed because the Soviet threat is not there." Fair enough, but how long as you going to keep F-15s and F-16s flying? A machine wears down despite the best maintenance. Your editor's sub-compact car is all he needs by way of performance. Immaculately maintained, and carefully driven, the car is in its sixth trouble-free year. But some day that car is going to have to be replaced - hopefully it will be at the same time as your editor is unable to drive anymore thanks to old age vision impairment. Ditto fighter aircraft.

· And if US anti-military spending people think that with the Soviet empire having gone into history's dustbin America needs no more big ticket weapons, they need to think again. Clue: we're talking about the 5-letter name of a country.

1230 GMT December 23, 2004   Updated 1100 GMT December 23, 2004

· FIRST PALESTINE VOTE IN 28 YEARS Agencies say Palestine went to the polls for municipal elections, for the first time in 28 years. AFP adds this is the first time the radical militant group Hamas has voted in an election. The election is seen as practice for the Prime Ministerial election scheduled for January.

· PUTIN CONFIRMS STATE BOUGHT YUKOS President Putin confirms that the state purchased the oil giant Yukos. We personally think he was a bit over the top in saying "absolutely legal" means were used. The "company" that bought Yukos as a sole bidder is headquartered in a small shop in a provincial city, and had never been heard from before.

· Certainly we at Orbat.com are not upset about the murky dealing surrounding Yukos. The company was created by looting state assets, it was run to loot the banks and minority shareholders, and if it has been looted back by the state, we're not about to shed tears. At the same time, there is an ugly rumor that state bureaucrats banded together to "buy" Yukos, and will sell it to the state and enrich themselves by several billion dollars. If it is true, then we think it will reflect badly on Mr. Putin and his nationalism.

· MOSUL ARMY BASE BLAST MAY BE SUICIDE BOMBER'S WORK US authorities now believe the blast at the US Army base in Mosul may have been the work of a suicide bomber, and not rockets or mortar fire.

· Naturally there is much media weeping and wailing about how the suicide bomber got through security. No doubt that needs the most careful investigation. This however, is a war. With near 350,000 US and Iraqi forces, plus contractors, mistakes are inevitable. That is life.

· What disturbs us is another matter altogether. The base dining facility with a reinforced concrete roof is still under construction. Now, if this was a car/truck bomb, the reinforced roof wouldn't have mattered. But it seems to us the US Government and senior military are "fighting" [Think Austin Powers] this war at a lazy, comfortable peacetime rate.

· We will be told about how the job couldn't be done any faster because of contracting rules and the need to hire reliable local managers and workers and so on until the cows come home and die of old age.

· The real reason that dining hall is not finished is the US Army no longer has the military construction engineering capability it has had in past wars. This is another critical support function that has been outsourced.

· If the US Government and the Pentagon are going to now organize for wars as if they were a civil corporation and cash cost-effectiveness is primary, then we have a word of advice for American soldiers. Take it for granted you will not be looked after, and leave the military as soon as you can.

· Word of advice for the US people: if you support a system that tries to save a buck and then ends up paying ten more, and costs lives in the bargain, you need to get out of the war business. You are equally responsible for Mosul and all the other Iraq disasters, because this is your government, and your Pentagon, that is fighting the war.

· As a start it will help if the media examine their own role in creating a system where a dining hall is not ready 21 months after the war began.

· F-22 COSTS SOAR PAST $250-MILLION EACH F-22 Raptor costs have escalated to the point that, by our estimate, a squadron of 25 aircraft (18 UE, the rest as wastage and maintenance reserves) is going to cost $6-billion+. In case readers wonder why we highlight this aspect and not the F-22 crash during a flight, it is because we do not consider the crash to be of any significance. The Raptor is an immensely complex new aircraft. Aircraft crash all the time. Some financial and defense analysts have been getting hysterical about the blow to the Raptor program, leaving as at Orbat.com to scratch our heads at the sanity of these people.

· Our hassle is the price. The B-2's price eventually esca