·
UKRAINE We may be seeing an end soon to Ukraine’s election crisis. The
sitting president has called for a new vote. Assuming there is no
constitutional bar to this, the outcome of a
properly conducted election should be acceptable to the loser next
time around.
·
KLASSE KLOWNE AWARD We haven’t been able to give this award to anyone for some
months now. But today we can honestly give it to a worthy candidate, Mr. Bin
Laden’s number two, Dr. Zawahiri, the Mad Doctor of Cairo. He has warned the
people of the US: you can elect Bush, you can elect Kerry, you can elect
Satan, but we will continue fighting you till America changes its policies.
We have to inform this gentleman that the United States constitution does not
allow a person to be president of another country while s/he is president of
the United States. Nor can the president of another country be the President
of the US. Since, your crew has already elected Satan as your president, the
distinguished and worthy gentlemen cannot be elected President of the United
States. Your punishment for not knowing the most elementary facts about your
enemy, the United States: you get the Klasse Klowne hat, now please proceed
to the chalk board and write “I will learn more about America before opening
my mouth” as many times as is necessary for you to get the point. More on
this later.
·
CONGO We thought that with everyone pulling out of the DRC the
problem of foreign intervention in the Congo was over. Wrong. Another crisis
is brewing. Reacting to reports that Rwanda forces have crossed back into
eastern DRC has led the DRC government to announce it is sending 6000 troops
to the Rwanda border.
·
Because we’ve been putting the
final touches on Orbat.info’s Concise World Armies 2005, your editor for once
actually knows the background to what’s happening.
·
After the Rwanda genocide of 1994,
the then army was defeated and retreated to eastern DRC. The army and other
Hutus who fled Rwanda set up base, and for 8 years had a jolly time robbing
the region and sustaining themselves on the proceeds. As DRC had many, many
other problems, getting the Rwanda rebels out was a low priority. So the new
Rwanda government also pushed in to Eastern DRC, to join in the looting of
the region’s resources while occasionally bashing the rebels, who in the rest
periods where the looting got too exhausting, would attack government troops
in the DRC and back in Rwanda.
·
Well, eventually everyone was
forced to leave and the UN moved in. For the last two years Rwanda has been
telling DRC “kick those rebels out, or we’re coming back to do the job”. DRC
has been saying “give us a break, pal. We’re just coming out of almost a decade
of civil war where 3-million of our people died, and where 8 countries were
involved. We’ve just about managed to get people to cease-fire, we’re trying
to integrate all the different Congo armies. We’ll kick the rebel Rwanda lot
out, but we can’t do it just yet.”
·
Rwanda has been saying no deal.
Orbat.com suspects the Rwanda Army generals simply miss all the nice money
they were making in Eastern Congo and are using the excuse of the rebels to
try and get back.
·
Meanwhile, the first of 5,000
reinforcing UN troops has arrived in DRC, to boost the 10,000 already there.
The UN force is covering the entire country, keeping the peace between
warring DRC faction and cajoling people to cooperate. Most of the force is in
the Ituri region in the east to stop the locals from killing each other. More
troops are needed in Ituri, so we are unclear how many – if any – can be
spared for the Rwanda border. In any case, all the UN troops can do is to
shine a flashlight on the filthy dealings of various factions. They can stop
the wanton massacre of civilians, who are in the way of the factions. But
they cannot disarm the Rwanda rebels. They have no mandate to make the peace:
they can only help keep the peace once warring sides agree on a peace. Expect
more bad news from this part of the world.
·
AFRICA AND AIDS Now, everyone knows Africa has an AIDS crisis, and everyone
knows its bad. Today we saw a new figure for how bad. Life expectancy in
black Africa is rapidly falling to 30 years, half of what it was before. An
entire continent is dying before our eyes. So the promise of the 21st
Century, it turns out, is for everyone except African blacks.
·
UKRAINE Talks between the official candidate and the opposition
candidate to find a way out of the current election impasse are not going
well. No details. Meanwhile, the Russian-majority areas of Ukraine are
threatening to secede to Russia; one area is calling for a referendum on
autonomy.
·
DPRK Jang of Pakistan
carries an odd story on DPRK. Apparently the 43-year old son of the DPRK
general in charge of secret operations has either gone missing or has been
murdered.
·
A few days ago reader Mike Thompson
sent us an equally odd piece. Apparently the dictator’s favorite mistress has
died after illness, and (1) the old boy seems to have got a bit unhinged; (2)
some of his portraits in offices have been taken down.
·
Perhaps none of this means
anything. And perhaps something is afoot. Personally, we cannot see how a man
claiming to be born on a mountaintop at the end of a rainbow and flights of
white birds and what not can get more unhinged than he is already. We at
Orbat.com are nonetheless deeply touched that the seemingly invulnerable
leader has feelings for another human being. Too bad that he didn’t have any
feelings for the up to one-quarter of his people who died in recent famines,
because he didn’t want outsiders to think anything was less than idyllic in
the Kingdom.
·
US ARMY DESERTER The deserter who surrendered to US forces in Okinawa after
deserting 4 decades ago has been set free after serving a 30-day sentence. We
are grateful that the US Army worked out an outcome both fair and gracious.
Justice has been served: the soldier went to jail. At the same time, the Army
has chosen not to hound a person who as a youngster cracked up and deserted,
only to be held in DPRK for all those years.
·
IRAQ As expected, the Iraq Government has refused to postpone the vote
set for January 30, 2005. The Kurd parties that joined in the Sunni demand for
postponement now say they are comfortable either way.
·
THE PROPHET Reader Chris Lock sends an article on a new US Army system,
called – interestingly enough – the Prophet. It appears to be a system of
extraordinary sophistication. Intended for use by the division commander and
by his cavalry commander, Prophet takes input from a variety of army
sensor/signal intercept systems and provides an instant Electronic Order of
Battle for a division AOR. It can provide the history, so that the commander
can know what the EOB was X many hours ago. Though the article does not
specifically say so, we assume its real job is to predict where the enemy is
going to be by analyzing all the data that is available in all the computer
systems on the battlefield and remote HQs.
·
If the system was not designed for
prediction, we don’t see why its been named the Prophet.
·
This system is one of the last
steps in making the battlefield transparent to a division commander. The
implications for this are mindboggling. An enemy will telegraph his every
move in advance. Not just his actual positions, but his INTENTIONS will be
known to the division commander. This will give him a tremendous advantage in
the battle area. The battle is going to be his to lose. It has the potential
of making American ground forces invincible – our guess is it will take
others 20 years to catch up with the Prophet and its immediate evolutions.
0001 GMT November 28, 2004
·
UKRAINE In a huge boost to the opposition, Ukraine’s Parliament said
today the Presidential election did not represent the will of the people.
·
Orbat.com comment Apparently the Parliament’s vote is symbolic rather than
binding. To stage a new election, not only does Parliament have to vote, the
vote has to be cleared by the sitting President - who has the most to lose of he agrees – and by the Supreme
Court. Nonetheless, sometimes symbols are as important as actual power. We
believe this is one such situation that will further energize the opposition.
Meanwhile, representative from every conceivable democratic group are landing
up in the country to monitor the situation and to try and talk sense into the
President. The latest “power” arrival is the OCSE, a 55-state organization
that is seriously averse to rigged elections, and now-a-days spends much of
its time working on human and minority rights in Europe.
·
KOFI’S BOY STILL ON THE TAKE Mike Thompson sends another news story which will undoubtedly
cause Mr. Kofi Annan to gnash his teeth in fury at his son. In the original
investigations, the company that employed young Annan, said payments to him
stopped in 1999. Now it turns out the payments continued at least to February
2004. The company says it got young Annan to sign a non-competing clause, for
which they would pay him $2,500/month, and all it was doing is keeping its
part of the bargain.
·
Well, folks, Orbat.com’s unasked for
advice to you is: Your inane defense is going to cost you between $1 and $5
million in US legal fees – if Congress or the US government decides to ignore
the matter. If they do not, you’re either going to find yourself mortgaging
your children’s’ toys AND going to jail, or you’ll find yourself going to
jail AND mortgaging your children’s’ toys.
·
The point is so simple it may have
escaped your sophisticated minds. You will be asked “And what were Mr. Annan
Jr’s qualifications for the job you gave him?” The answer will quickly come
out: “because he had the right connections”. Next question: “why did you
require a non-compete?” Your answer will be “to stop him from using his connections
to drive business for a competitor” Next question will be: “did you realize
what you were doing amounts to bribery, a serious offence under US law?” Now,
if you answer “No, sir”, the next question will be “which do you prefer, the Federal jail at Connecticut or at
Kentucky?”. If you answer, “Yes, Sir, and we’re sorry”, you may get off on
jail: but the Americans are going to require you to testify against others,
AND you’ll still have to put everything you own in hock.
·
Our last bit of unwanted advice. Do
not try and hide behind the UN’s gag order. You’ll dig yourself further into
the hole. Go to the US Congressional committee and start bargaining. The fine
then may be something you can afford without having to move to a homeless
shelter.
·
PAKISTAN Pakistan announced it is pulling its troops out of the South
Waziristan area of the North West Frontier Province. We have searched high
and low for Bin Laden for two years, says GOC XI Corps, and if Bin Laden was
around, we’d know, because the security he requires would broadcast a large
signature.
·
Now, Orbat.com is not going to rag on
the general. He is doing as he is told. The point here is that if at all Mr.
Bin Laden is alive and moving around, he will be doing so with an escort of 3
men and 5 donkeys. That’s not a large
signature. You know that, we know that, so just between us can we go wink
wink nod nod?
·
While we see a cover up, the people of
the tribal zone definitely see a cover-up: the army is not going to withdraw,
they’re lying, say the local leaders.
·
Well, Gee Golly Galoshes! You are so
smart! How did you figure out the Army is lying? Oh – we just figured it out:
you all are such expert liars, that of course you know when the army is
lying!
·
What’s likely to happen is this, in
our opinion. First, the Army is not going to evacuate the forward operating
bases it has built over the last two years. For one thing, the army genuinely
needs to close up on the frontier because the Taliban is gone, and the
traditional Pakistan-Afghanistan hostility has resumed behind the masks of
politeness both sides affect. For another, the US is not going to allow the
Army to clear out so that insurgents and terrorists don’t reestablish
themselves. For a third, the Frontier Corps presence will be greatly expanded
in the area. So, folks, forget about the free and easy days of autonomy.
·
You tribals broke your oath to the
government: you got autonomy and in return you were not supposed to harbor
enemies of the country. With your classic habit of trying to have everything,
you thought you could make money from the terrorists and the Pakistan
government. Islamabad called your bluff. By the way, from what we hear your
troubles are just starting…
·
AMERICAN MEDIA AT ITS BEST (NOT!) Whenever American media runs short of the fantasy they call news,
they have a standard trick they play to fill space. So today we have the
Washington Post telling us how the Americans who were in their Islamabad
embassy when the Pakistani mobs decided to burn it down are still haunted by
the memories. We are sure they are haunted by their memories and many will be
haunted to the end of their days. But is that legitimate news? Actually, is
it any kind of news?
·
When your editor was a school kid, he was
landing up in the school infirmary all the time because of asthma – people
didn’t know the connection between allergies and asthma then, or if they did,
the news hadn’t reached his corner of the world. The school had a sensible
policy that if anyone was admitted, they had to be free and clear of fever or
asthma or whatever for three days -
the infirmary did not want to kick you out only to have you return three days
later. Well, those were different days, much slower days. Your editor would
run out of reading material very quickly, and then it was back to counting
the ceiling tiles from right to left, from left to right, diagonally, every
second tile etc.
·
The school nurse was the prototypical
English nurse: hands the size of Mike Tyson’s, a temper the size of Mike
Tyson’s etc. and she couldn’t wait to retire and go home. But she had a heart
of gold. So she would share her “True Confessions” magazines with your
editor. She had so much fun shivering at the depraved things people did in
America. Of course, the magazine made up your editor’s mind to go to America
so he too could do those things instead of just reading about them.
·
Anyhows, True Confessions was about as
low class reading as you could get into, in America or elsewhere. Little did
your editor realize, in his youthful innocence, that one day the True
Confessions style would become mainstream reporting for the Washington Post
and the media in general.
·
Fellas, a little secret: True
Confessions was MUCH better than the Washington Post. (Sorry, this is what
happens when the editor stays up past bedtime.)
Lest our readers assume the editor has been goofing off – we missed yesterday’s update – we need to explain your editor has been working night and day to finish off Orbat’s Concise Guide to World Armies 2005, which is due at the printer’s in 5 days. The computer fiasco cost 2 weeks of time, which has essentially been made up.
·
UKRAINE The electoral crisis eased as Ukraine’s Supreme Court agreed to
consider the disputed election. The official prime-minister elect and the
challenger have agreed to open talks immediately to find a peaceful solution.
·
Meantime, the EU joined the US and
Canada in rejecting the results, which saw the Moscow-backed candidate win.
International observers said massive fraud took place. With just 3%
separating the two men, any allegation of fraud has to be taken seriously.
·
Reader John Cramer asks if the report
we carried on November 25 possibly mistook Ukraine soldiers in civil clothes
for Russian soldiers. A good question, perhaps our readers can share their
information with us. Today the police was conspicuous by its absence as
demonstrators ringed Parliament, preventing the outgoing President from entering
his offices. The CNN report says a few traffic police were on duty, and 30
trucks belonging to the special forces were parked nearby.
·
Frankly, unless the CNN reporter is
familiar with Ukraine’s military vehicle numbers, it would be wise to assume
there is no evidence the vehicles belonged to the SF troops. In situations
like this, relying on the demonstrators’ word is perhaps not good journalism.
·
COTE D’IVORIE For the first time, we saw a
reasonable explanation of what’s happening in the Ivory Coast. This was in
the Washington Post, but on the op-ed page, not on the news pages. Jim
Hoagland, a Post writer explains the situation thus.
·
The French are ruining the ruling
president’s happiness because they are standing between him and the northern
rebels. One would think the man had some gratitude, because if the French
hadn’t interposed themselves, the rebels may well have seized the capital.
Anyhow, the president wants to resume the offensive against the rebels;
France is not letting him do so.
·
The President had a bright idea.
Instigate a crisis, and then appeal to the United States to intervene. Why
would the US intervene in the French sphere of influence? Because, the
President figured, Washington was angry at the French over Iraq, and
presumably would be happy to trash the French.
·
This strategy is not without some
logic: the younger generation of French West Africans reject Paris’
benevolent and paternalistic neo colonialism in their former territories, and
many look to America as their “spiritual home” rather than to France, as was
the case for their elders.
·
So, the President ordered the attack
on French positions. It was carried out by Byelorussian mercenaries flying
for the government. As is well known, the French retaliated and wiped out the
Ivorian air force. What is not so well known, and is an intriguing little
story in itself, is French sources told Hoagland the French government made
sure the mercenary pilots were killed.
·
But we diverge. Washington instead of
getting outraged at the French behavior, solidly backed Paris, as it should:
no one needs another outbreak of sectarian fighting in another part of the
world – the southerners are predominantly Christian and the northerners are
Muslim.
·
This is one of those “fact stranger
than fiction” situations. A spy thriller writer would find it difficult to
come up with the scenario that unfolded in real life.
·
IRAQ ELECTION 17 political parties have called for postponement of the
elections set for January 30, saying it was too dangerous to have a fair
election. Problem is most of these parties seem to be Sunnis, the same lot
which is wrecking havoc over Iraq. The Shias are not prepared to wait longer
to assume power, and particularly not when the Sunnis are causing the
insecurity. The US in particular is pushing for elections as scheduled, for
obvious reasons. The UN is going to come in only if asked by an elected
government, and the US does not want to continue being accused of wanting to
take over Iraq.
·
Plenty of people seem to be saying:
“If you don’t delay the election, because 20% of the populace cannot vote, it
will not be a legitimate election”. A wise friend of your editor replies:
“Let’s hark back to the US Civil War. Something like 40% of the US was not
permitted to vote .Has anyone ever said the election was not legitimate? In
any case, whether the Sunnis vote or not, is there any doubt of the outcome?
It is in the interest of the Sunnis to vote, so as to secure their rights.
And that means the Sunni clerics must line up, and with one voice declare the
insurgency illegitimate. Instead they are doing the opposite, and goading
Sunnis to fight the government. They cannot have it both ways: be in
rebellion against the government, and still want to vote in the election.”
·
You editor asked: “but what if the Sunnis
want to vote, but are being intimidated by a small percentage of
dead-enders?” Our wise friend replied: “by declaring the insurgency
illegitimate, and by helping the government to fight the insurgents, the
Sunnis will earn the right to vote. No insurgency can exist without the
support of the people. Withdraw that support in a verifiable manner, and
fight for Iraq as opposed to fighting for continued Sunni oppression. If the
Sunnis then say elections should be postponed, that is a very different sort
of zebra.”
0530 November 25, 2004
·
OPERATION PLYMOUTH ROCK US/UK/Iraq forces (5000 troops) have begun an operation south of
Baghdad and have trapped several hundred insurgents. This area was the second
most dangerous part of the country after Fallujah.
·
US officer says insurgents here are
skillful fighters.
·
Reports say that US has captured the
senior insurgent leader in An Anbar province. Kurd sources claim Zarqawi was in
Fallujah when offensive began, and got out, but not before being wounded. He
is now thought by US/other sources to be in the area where the above
operation is taking place.
·
US says the 3 Iraqi battalions fought
well at Fallujah, but still have a long way to go before they can fight
without US advisors. The US has apparently finally learned the basics of
empire insurgency, the divide and rule principle. The troops at Fallujah and
in the new offensive are mainly Kurds who are seeking revenge against the Sunnis.
The troops that helped the US retake Mosul were also Kurds. The insurgents
have thoughtfully been helping the US by executing captured Iraqi soldiers at
every opportunity. Arab and US media have nothing to say on this issue, the
US media at least reports the facts.
·
Mike Thompson says to look at A Marine Near Fallujah for some reality from
the field. A number of interesting disclosures about US anti-mortar tactics,
including keeping an AC-130 above the battlefield at night. He tells the story of an insurgent
commander who got on his cell phone to tell someone he had just escaped an
American strike but his pals got hit in the house. He was on his way to a new
house. So the Americans obligingly located the position of the new house and
laid down a hot welcome. We hope this leader will spend an eternity in his
heaven writing on the chalk board: “I will not use a cell phone in the middle
of a battle”, again and again.
·
The AC-130 apparently fires its
weapons in 4-second bursts. This particular Marine says the insurgents are
the worst cowards he knows about. Your editor must note that after reading
what the AC-130 does to its targets, he is in full sympathy with the insurgents’
cowardice. Since going up directly against US troops is a free on-way ticket
to paradise, the only way the insurgents have a chance of survival is to be
cowards
·
The Marine adds “The battalion adjacent to us had a hit on a
school bus in the AO the other day, targeting elementary school kids of
junior new Iraqi govt officials. Their Ops Officer told me the Marines were
having to pick up kids
arms and legs from off the tops of buildings. Bet you're not seeing this on
CNN? “ For those who ask “how do we know US media was in the area?”, well,
reporters are embedded with all units. And its not particularly difficult to
fetch the nearest reporter to witness the aftermath of the atrocity – if the
reporter agrees to come.
·
NEWS OF THE ABSURD
Reuters files a story
saying US troops in Iraq are engaged in a frustrating cat-and-mouse game with
the insurgents: the insurgents seem to get away each time they are encircled.
Oh, so that’s what Fallujah was about, the insurgent mice escaping the
American cat? Hmmm. Now, we don’t know how many insurgents were in Fallujah,
and certainly many got away before the cordon was emplaced. Some even got
away after the cordon was emplaced – oh how horribly inefficient we Americans
are! Whatever the figure, 1600 insurgents were deemed killed by body count,
hundreds more were arrested. Seems to us the American cat had a serious
chow-fest and is having seconds in the new offensive.
·
How many times
does this have to be said before the media gets it? The Iraq insurgents are
split into scores of groups. After being flushed out of one base, their
running to another base is fraught with great risk. There is a lot of infighting between groups. Infighting gets
worse when people are getting killed and no one is sure who is on who’s side.
You cannot land up at another base, and announce: “I am fleeing Fallujah and
have come to join you in your next fight against the Americans.” The people
who you have run to may turn out not to be your past buddies. Moreover,
insurgents are at their most vulnerable during the flight and setting up in
their new base – they have to communicate all over the place, using insecure
means. When rats come into the open, it does not demonstrate some failure of
the cat. The whole idea is to get the rats in the open. Media, please read
your own reports of fleeing insurgents being handily picked up in other
cities.
·
If Reuters had
thought to check before writing such asinine stories, we are willing to bet
money that the response of the Marines and Army soldiers would be: “so many
mice, so little time”.
·
Suggested punishment for the Reuters
person in question: s/he is required to dress himself or herself up in a
mouse costume in a rebel held area the Americans are attacking. Then lets see
who will get frustrated.
·
·
ITALIAN RESCUE IN COTE IVORE A reader emails “I would inform you and your readers that Italy has completed a
successful NEO in Ivory Coast, deploying its Special Forces and transport
planes in Accra and Abidjan and rescuing several hundreds Italian and other
foreigners. The Operation "Ippocampo" ended last 19 November.”
[Name withheld by request].
·
CNN & IRAQ We suppose it is some kind of victory for the US in Iraq that CNN
has seen fit to ignore any Iraq news on its web “frontpage” www.cnn.com
·
IRAN BUYS MORE TIME Iran says it is suspending work on its uranium. It thus [1] buys
more time before it is sanctioned; [2] gives its main supporters, the Euro 3,
a victory; [3] angers the US which sees this move as another evasive maneuver
to take the international heat off its weapons program. We have no comment:
if the Euro 3 want to believe they have achieved something, then who are we
to do a Cassandra. The closer Iran gets to a bomb, the harder the west will
have to work to stop the bomb.
·
IRAN’s 1st BOMB: 2011 Here is your editor out on a limb. Iran will get its first bomb
in 2011. Its 40 MW plutonium production reactor should be on-line by 2010.
Your editor has been saying for years Pakistan’s uranium enrichment program
was not to make a bomb, but to slightly enrich uranium for use in a plutonium
producing reactor. Iran is doing the same. With regard to Pakistan, your
editor was wrong on one point: in 1985 he said Pakistan should have its first
bomb by 2000. That has changed to 2005. But, our readers will say, what about
Pakistan’s several nuclear explosions some years ago? In response your editor
will be witty: well, what about those explosions? Some, at least, may have
been conducted with insufficient plutonium or with reactor grade plutonium.
·
The real experts on this issue are a
bunch of young Indian scientists. Unfortunately, due to time constraints your
editor has never tracked down the several mysteries concerning the Pakistan
“tests”.
·
Of course, the Pakistan bomb is a moot
point after September 11, 2001. The US has Pakistan’s weapons infrastructure
locked down, and if there was the least indication Pakistan had started up
something else, the US would destroy it without debate. The last thing anyone
wants is a repeat of the lovely stunt Dr. AQ Khan, till his downfall the head
of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, pulled before September 11. He sent
one of his officers to tell Mr. Bin Laden that Mr. Bin Laden could have a
bomb if the price was right.
·
Now, between us, our readers, and the
trees in the forest, Dr. Khan was simply pulling another one of his famous
hoaxes that have made him much money. He had no bomb to deliver to Mr. Bin
Laden. At most he might have had some reactor grade plutonium, which could
have created problems enough if used as a weapon deployed by scattering the
plutonium in mid-town Manhattan. By the way, this is not as easy to do as the
media would have us believe.
·
If the US had not stepped in, by next
year Dr. K would have had something that looked like a bomb to hand over to
Mr. BL. Again, getting this to New York would be – to put it mildly – very
difficult. But assume it could be done; you wouldn’t need a proper full
blast. Anything between 0.1 and 1 KT would produce a satisfactory blast and
depending on the winds, scatter radioactive plutonium over hundreds, if not
thousands, of square miles.
·
AMERICANS AND THE WORLD One of the many things your editor likes about the Amerians is
that as a people, their natural inclination is to trust others and to take
them at their word. It is simply impossible, for a great many Americans,
perhaps even the majority, to imagine that people they have not harmed in any
way want so badly to kill Americans. A 10-day visit to Pakistan should be mandatory
for all American adults. They would then learn first hand what the reality
is. Wait a minute, you will say, why Pakistan? Surely any mid-east Islamic
nation would be better. Well, here’s one of those odd things that is hard to
explain in words. Pakistan has been far from the front lines of Islam versus
Christianity, and is one of the few Islamic states that from the start has
been treated decently by the Americans. At most, American has been
indifferent, in some years, to Pakistan. But before 9-11, America never
sought to harm Pakistan. Yet, paradoxically, the Pakistanis hate the
Americans more than do the residents of any Islamic country.