1530 GMT October 31, 2004

[2nd Update]

· FALLUJAH Activity in and around Fallujah is picking up. As of this time we don't have enough to say that the assault has begun.

· First, the long artillery barrage we mentioned yesterday was laid down after Marines inside SE Fallujah were attacked by mortar fire.

· Second, fighting has erupted at Ramadi. No details as would help us to get a clear picture. Watching for Ramadi happenings is important because insurgents are firmly entrenched here too: it's a Twin Cities sort of thing with Ramadi-Fallujah, so Ramadi has to be attacked at the same time.

· Third, contrary to what we reported about the US troops around Fallujah being doubled to 2,000, it emerges that that figure applies to Ramadi. So this becomes another indicator that something is about to happen.

· Readers should add a Marine regimental HQ and two battalions to the line-up we gave yesterday, on account of Ramadi, unless the reinforcements are army troops - there is no indication either way.

· Our revised working orbat should now read (we will start plugging in unit numbers soon; had we had the time, a careful correlation of news reports would already have given us a good indication of the units)

HQ 1st Marine Division

o 2 Marine infantry regiments with 4 battalions (1 in reserve)

o US Army brigade task force from 1st Infantry Division, 3 battalions, plus 1 battalion from 1st Cavalry Division

o Iraq 1 commando company

o Iraq 1-2 army battalions

o Iraq 2 National Guard battalions

· MARINES AND LUNCH

A letter from reader Shannon on the Marines' lunch:

There is no shortage of food. It is standard for troops two receive a hot meal for breakfast and dinner only, lunch in the field is almost always an MRE. This is because feeding hot chow can be disruptive to training and activity cycles, were as MRE are always carried by the troops and can be eaten with minimal to no interruption in mission postures. The fact that they were receiving 3 hot meals a day means they did not consider themselves in any serious action as far as unit commitments go

0430 GMT October 31, 2004

· FALLUJAH Washington Post reports Marines at Fallujah say they are ready, and waiting only for the "go" order.

· A puzzling detail, and we don't know if it is true: WashPost says that to conserve food for the coming assault Marines have been cut back to 2 hot meals a day, and field rations issued for the missing meal. Does this make sense? The US base is a few kilometers away; we can see once the assault begins units get isolated and supplies are sometimes difficult to push through on a schedule, but its not as if the supply route is long or insecure. Wouldn't it make sense to save the field rations for when the fighting starts? Is there a shortage of field rations or food?

· A US military spokesperson says the US had put down the heaviest and most consistent artillery fire on Fallujah in a long-time. That usually indicates an attack is imminent, but then, this is Iraq, and US forces effectively take their engagement orders from Baghdad.

· We learned a few days ago that the people of Fallujah are indeed being told to leave - but by the Fallujah Council. It is doing its best to get people out of the city. The people fleeing saying the US is no help: they get stopped, questioned about the situation inside the city, and then pushed on. We can understand the Marines are not in a good mood regarding the people of Fallujah, but if they were to provide for the population - and this assault has been months in the making - they could empty the city out and have a free hand.

· WashPost reports a spokesperson says there are "thousands" of foreign fighter inside the town, but he would not confirm other estimates of 5,000.

· The attack force, conversely, has been built up to just 2000, with the arrival of an unidentified 1st Cavalry Division battalion from Baghdad. That would just be the spearhead, of course

· This would make 4 Army mechanized/tank battalions and 3 Marine battalions available. Our estimate of Iraqi forces is 1 Commando company, and 1 Army battalion, possibly a second, and two National Guard battalions.

· BIN LADEN TAPE Conspiracy theorists are going to love this new tape because it could have perfectly scripted by the Kerry team. Among other things, Bin Laden attacks Mr. Bush for being negligent in taking immediate action and instead finishing his reading to the school children. Thanks to Bush's negligence, "Bin Laden" says, his teams were able to take out other targets. The tape takes Kerry off the hook as an object of Bin Laden's affections, because it bashes Kerry too.

· This is the type of story that makes one look heavenward and cry: "Lord, take me home, NOW!". Somebody please give us a break. The person who benefited from America's negligence criticizes Bush for being negligent? Please! Why would Bin Laden say anything such idiotic thing to begin with?

· ARAFAT The PLO leader is in a French Army hospital near Paris. Doctors are conducting tests, have confirmed he does not have leukemia, at least, other results may not be known for some days.

· MISSING EXPLOSIVES Our readers did not get an update yesterday. First your editor went  crazy trying to explain in plain language the operational and field command structure of the Myanmar Army, something he is convinced even the Myanmar Army cannot explain. Then he read the latest news on the Missing Explosives, and instantly regretted it. Then he spent an hour trying to tie up developments before he gave up.

· Today he feels no guilt about not having covered the story. It is so useless a story that even the US media is asking if anyone really cares.

· Question to Mr. K: why is this 400 tons more important than the other 1 million tons in Iraq at that time? There wasn't even any insurgency at the time, so why should anyone see the least urgency about securing THIS particular 400-tons? CNN says there is still 250,000 tons of munitions/explosives to be accounted for. If you're going to hammer Mr. Bush, 250,000 is a much more impressive figure. Of course, if you went there, you'd be laughed out of town, because Iraq is a big country and its going to take years to find all explosives and destroy them. Not that that is going to solve anything, because the insurgents are smuggling in as much as they need.

· MR. KERRY AND AFGHANISTAN Mr. Kerry has been hammering Mr. Bush on the "failure" in Afghanistan, and having outsourced the capture of Bin Laden instead of sending in America's finest warriors to do the job, thus let BL to get away.

· Now, we quite understand that Mr. Bush has been uttering one fat fib after another regarding his performance in the Terror War, and so Mr. Kerry has no choice but to also utter one big fat fib after another.

· We do have to point out, though, that Afghanistan is a huge success, considering not so long ago - 3 years, to be precise, we were being direly warned that no foreign army had conquered Afghanistan and so on and so forth etc. The war was a success exactly because it was outsourced: a handful of SF troops leading the locals, and massive applications of firepower, sent the Taliban running in so short a timespan, that your editor and our anonymous Afghan analyst were stunned - even though we'd been predicting all along the US would handily defeat the Taliban. And before September 11, the Americans had not one person in Afghanistan: talk about lack of intelligence. The CIA was having to raid nursing homes for old Afghan hands, giving them invalid walkers, and supplying them with Viagra because it couldn't find anyone else. Even then we heard a rumor  that when the first SF troops went in, within a few days of 9/11, the US had been round up just 8 officers with Afghan experience.

· Afghanistan is a model example of a new type of warfare. Which, oddly, is the old form of warfare. The British never sent their finest warriors to fight anyone. Britain was a tiny island with ?30 million? people and a worldwide empire. So it always "outsourced". The British would spend years, if necessary, on playing the locals off one another, rewarding those who fought for them, and then proceeded to the next war or the next battle. The natives were backed by a few British soldiers, and some very daring officers and political agents.

· By the way, what is astonishing about the age of British imperialism is that these officers and agents were, in the main, kids by the standards of today. Today you wouldn't entrust a rifle company to some of them because they were so young. But these boys simply bashed on ahead and just did it. By the time HQ in London had the slightest inkling that Captain Smith with Political Agent Jones had marched off to conquer another country or two for the crown, regardless of what London thought there was nothing it could do - because by the time the orders reached overseas "Don't advance another step or else we'll send your Dad out to give you a spanking", Smith and Jones had already conquered another country or two.

· Afghanistan was won by American cowboys winging it at every step. Washington gave what resources it could, it gave money, and it let the people on the ground do what they thought best. The whole show was over before the press got organized to leave Kabul. To our mind, the whole thing worked also because the press was NOT present.

· One last thing. Mr. Kerry, America's finest warriors HAVE been trying to catch Bin Laden for 3 years. Did no one bother to brief you? Alongside the Americans have had Britain's finest warriors, and an screwball collection of some of the best tribal fighters Afghanistan has, and some crack contingents from other countries who have preferred to stay out of the limelight.

· But you know what? These sort of wars are not won in a day, or even in  a year. Bin Ladin may never be caught. We assume, he is alive, of course. That's the way life works. Just suck it up and stop whining you could have done it better.

· A LAST SPECULATION Have any of our readers noticed that whenever Bin Laden appears on another tape, the US Vice President Mr. Cheney is never to be seen? Laugh, if you will, but our theory makes more sense than the ranting, raving, foaming at the mouth the candidates and their supporters have been doing.

· A LAST LAST SPECULATION Any of readers remember the post-WW2 German novelist who wrote "The Night of the Generals" also wrote a book about a German artillery NCO on the Russian front. It has been forever since we even thought about the book. As we recall, Gunner Ash was selected by his officers to take back a highly important note to anti-Hitler plotters in Berlin. The entire story is a cliff-hanger with the Gestapo etc just one step behind Gunner Ash, all the way from the Russian front to Berlin. Gunner Ash gets through, of course. When he returns his commander asks him "How did you succeed, with the Gestapo and everyone after you? Tell me your brilliant plan!"

· Gunner Ash is puzzled. "Plan, Sir? I didn't have a plan, I was just trying to survive one day to the next". Which is why the Gestapo's finest never got him. They kept saying "now logically he should make his next move right here". But since the gunner didn't have a plan, even the smartest people couldn't stop him.

· Your editor was so impressed when he read the book that he has never made a plan since.

· But that's not the point of our story. Gunner Ash = President Bush. Now you get the point?

0300 GMT October 29, 2004

· ARAFAT The PLO leader is to be flown to France, perhaps today, for medical treatment. AFP reports that a doctor treating him in Gaza says he may have blood cancer or a form of blood poisoning.

· Apparently Mr. Sharon has told an Arab MP that no attempt will be made to prevent Mr. Arafat from returning. That's not as kind-hearted of Mr. Sharon as one might think: we suspect Mr. Sharon believes the only way Mr. Arafat will return is in a coffin.

· The Israeli Foreign Minister has wasted no time saying an Arafat exist from the scene could help reactivate the peace process and enhance chances of a permanent settlement. Doubtless all this is politically correct; frankly, however, we admire people who tell it as it is.

· Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not taking any chances on a possible Arafat resurrection. They have pledged to each other they will not engage in internecine warfare in the event of his death.  

· A LETTER ON YOUR EDITOR AND MR. CLINTON ENLISTING From Micah Hagins: "I just turned fifty...I'll join up too, if they'll let me...better me than my two teenaged daughters! I'm just a guy trying to find out what's really going on in the world and our country, so I can prepare my family...I think there are a lot of us like that. It's hard to know what the truth is, there are so many outlets, none of which seem to be trustworthy.

"

· Micah: As long as there are honest Americans like you, the Republic will never fail. You turned 18 in 1972. If you were not drafted, no blame to you. The draft was on its way out. And much as you love your daughters: the whole point of gender equality is that women have to go to war, too, if needed. I am absolutely revolted at the idea that women should go to war at all, but then these are choices American society has made.

· THE MISSING IRAQI EXPLOSIVES There are days when the combination of American media and American politicians gives one a severe headache. This is one of them. Reader Terry Shifflet writes to tell us about an ABC news report. Of the 377 tons of explosives missing, 141 tons is supposed to be RDX. But the figure is based on an Iraqi declaration from July 15, 2002. When IAEA inspectors  visited the storage facility on January 1, 2003, they recorded 3 tons present. So the other 138 tons of RDX was gone well before the US invasion. ABC says, however, that there still may be problems with the missing HDX. Though the IAEA verified its seals were intact on the HDX bunkers, there apparently were ways someone determined to purloin the HDX could have done so without breaking the seals. So we still don't know if it was gone before or after the invasion.

· First, fire the IAEA inspectors who put those seals. If this is the standard of their work, then we'd better start worrying what else they have sealed.

· Second, Mr. Bush makes a valid point when he says a thousand times more explosives and ammunition has already been destroyed in Iraq. Of course, HDX is not your typical explosive, but still...

· Third, should we be tarring ABC with the same brush as the rest of the media? After all, ABC went out and got the more correct story. Maybe. But ABC says it obtained confidential IAEA documents. ABC may not know it, but confidential documents of any sort are not just waiting for journalists to find. You don't just walk into the IAEA staff cafeteria and tell the server "I'd like 10 confidential documents today, please." Those documents were planted on ABC, and if we are to pat ABC on the head, it had better acknowledge that it is being used. If we are to give ABC and A or a B or C for reporting, we'd like proof that ABC actually tried to figure out why those documents were planted on it, and then we'd like ABC to tell us so we can make our own judgment.

· THE WASHINGTON POST MAKES A POMPOUS ASS OF ITSELF We've been a bit off our feed of late because the WashPost has actually been behaving itself. No egregiously stupid stories, a lot of quite informative stuff, actually. But today we perked up. On Page 1 of yesterday's Post, the august newspaper tries to convince us that in a tight election, the missing explosives have become a big issue - someone else, not the Post, even spoke of this as the October surprise.

· Message to the WashPost on behalf of the average American, who you believe to lack the intelligence your little left ingrown toenail possesses: American...public...does...not...give...a...darn...about...missing...explosives; ...leave...alone...let...it...become...an...issue...on...whom...it...will...vote...for.

· We had to speak slowly and carefully because we have reason to believe the left little toenails of the astronomically brilliant WashPost staff have difficulty hearing.

MORE ORBAT.COM RANTS: THE NEW AL-QAEDA TAPE

· CBS has acquired a tape in which a man describing himself as an American member of Al-Qaeda threatens the US. The tape has not been authenticated by the US authorities. CBS paid $500 to have the tape brought over by means not described. analysts suspect the man grew up in a non-native American speaking household.

· Your editor does business of the orbat kind with people in the Middle East, and these days for $500 you get nothing more valuable than a can of last week's garbage. Even for that your Middle East source will want an American visa for him and family, a pension for life, and a Bruce Springsteen sweatshirt.

· We're getting irritated by this absolutely meaningless ritual of US sources saying "American officials say they have been unable to authenticate the tape", and then a few days later "American officials believe the tape to be authentic". Go away little boys, and play your dumb games elsewhere. The American public has no reason to believe any of the authentications are authentic because no outside experts are permitted to look at the tapes. Normally, we are all for believing the government. In this case however, we know information warfare is a powerful tool of US policy.

· As for the statement, here is an excerpt: "No, my fellow countrymen you are guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty. You are as guilty as Bush and Cheney. You're as guilty as Rumsfeld and Ashcroft and Powell. After decades of American tyranny and oppression, now it's our turn to die. Allah willing, the streets of America will run red with blood matching drop for drop the blood of American victims."

· Dude, we really hope your dream of "our turn to die" comes true - for you, of course, we're not that fed up with life. And further, if you keep writing prose like that, not to worry, we'll have no choice but to kill ourselves.

· And still further, how long have you been off your medication? "The streets of America will run red with blood matching drop for drop the blood of American victims"? Say what, again? So first you kill Americans, and then you punish Americans because you killed Americans? If you get a letter from Mr. Bin Laden presenting his compliments and requesting the favor of an immediate visit from you, start running as fast as you can. He's ordered followers killed for less idiotic things.

· Moreover, your editor spoke briefly with a Muslim gentleman he admires as a holy person and a scholar. This gentleman said you are anti-Islam and Allah will punish you for your blasphemy. 

· Still further, by the way. Make sure you do not die a martyr on American soil. If you do, there is a special heaven reserved for you. It contains not 77 virgins, but 77 Boston policemen averaging 100-kg in weight, and equipped with night sticks and flashlights. So watch it, buddy, and control your mouth.

0200 GMT October 28, 2004

· MR. SHARON WINS WITHDRAWAL VOTE Backed by liberal/leftist parties that more than made up for defections from the Prime Minister conservative power base, Mr. Sharon won parliamentary approval for his plan to withdraw settlements from Gaza. Opponents of the plan that serve in Mr. Sharon's cabinet say they want a national referendum on the issue.

· Mr. Sharon again proves the old Orbat.com adage: only a real hawk can be a dove.

· ARAFAT IN CRITICAL CONDITION AFP reports that Yassar Arafat, PLO leader, is in critical condition. Israel has given Mr. Arafat permission to go where he wants for treatment, an offer that was extended last week, when news of his serious health problems surfaced. Mr. Arafat - or his aides - refused the offer saying he was recovering. It seems to us Mr. Arafat and Company were more concerned about his being barred from returning more than his health.

· Suha Arafat, Mr. Arafat's wife, is "expected to rush" to his bedside from Paris, where she lives.

· Seeing as he has been quite ill for some weeks now, we appreciate her gesture of coming in case he is at death's door. Paris in October in beautiful, and doubtless she is making a big sacrifice in forgoing Paris for the dirty, dismal, demolished venues of Gaza, where coincidentally her people live.

· We have long thought the Palestine problem can be easily solved. If Mrs. Arafat can live in Paris, why not the 2-3 million Palestinians?

· In case Mr. Arafat dies, Orbat.com will be taking up a collection for his widow. Last we heard from our sources, she was down to between $30 and $50 million. Others put the total as much higher. Either way, she will be destitute and we must help.

· Orbat.com no-brainer prediction. If Mr. Arafat dies, few of his aides will be around for the funeral. They will get out as fast as they can before they are killed by enemies or by the people.

· IRAQ EXPLOSIVES Reader Chris Lock sends us a copy of Tuesday's Drudge Report, which says that a reporter embedded with the unit that made it first to Iraq's nuclear site says the explosives were gone before the troops reached. That is not good enough for Mr. Kerry's attack dog, Mr. Lockhart. He accuses the Bush administration of trifling with the truth.

· An Army officer says that at that time, the US was battling for Baghdad. The thing with these military chaps is they always seem to have a slick answer for everything. That is an excuse? Are we all idiots? Thank goodness we aren't, but your editor can't say as much for American politicians.

· CRUDE FALLS Agencies report crude oil fell to $53/bbl after the US announced that stocks had increased. A reader requests us to remind everyone that in 1979, after the Iranian Revolution, oil reached $80/bbl in today's money; further, the US uses half as much energy per unit of output as it did 35 years ago. Of course, we cannot assume that oil has to go to $160/bbl before the 1979 prices can be compared, because we don't know if the use of oil for producing one unit of economic output has also halved.

· IRAN NUCLEAR We haven't bothered boring our leaders with the latest on the Euro 3's negotiations with Iraq, and rightly. Jang of Pakistan reports that's yesterday's negotiations failed. Amazing.

· The Euro 3 analysts need something to focus their minds, and no, they cannot have your editor's stock of Tennessee Rotgut. He needs it more than they do.

· Unasked for advice to Euro 3, in two-syllable words. You offer Iran nuclear reactors in return for it giving up its uranium enrichment program. But Iran needs an enrichment program if it is to fuel those reactors. No use saying: "We'll give you the fuel". Please don't assume the Iranians are as stupid as yourselves. Do we hear any takers in Germany, France, UK for a hypothetical Iran offer for you to terminate your enriched fuel programs because Iran will supply it to you?

· It's always possible there was more to this story: the public process is rarely the real process in such matters. But Iran has made it clear many times: we will not give away our bomb option. So: stop this futile yak. Either work with the US/Israel to destroy Iran's program and take the consequences, or get out of the way, and when Iran has a bomb or two, take the consequences. There is a point beyond which talk talk talk is not seemly. It's not what powerful countries do. It's what old men who are no longer good for anything do.

MUSINGS OF AN AGING BOOMER: ORBAT.COM EDITOR'S OFFER TO MR. CLINTON

· Sir, we both avoided service in the Vietnam War. A small difference: as a non-citizen and non-resident, I was not legally or ethically required to register. I stuck to my non-resident status, with all the disadvantages, rather than face a draft notice. My reasons for this avoidance were also different from yours; we can talk about it a different day.

· Now both of us are getting on in the afternoon of our lives - we are about the same age. Being a man of conscience, I am sure you feel guilty that your life of comfort continued while less privileged young men went through a year of horror, mutilation, or death. Certainly I feel guilty, sometimes so much so I cannot sleep.

· We know why you should feel guilty, but why me? Well, it's got to do the debt the "upper" classes owe to the ordinary people. Yes, we know your story, and a highly inspiring one it is, of how you rose from what we used to call a "white trash" background of abuse, deprivation, and instability, to become - entirely on his own merit - President of the United States.

· But at the time you avoided your notice by saying you did not "receive it", you were Yale and Oxford. Not something the Irish and Italian working class boys of Boston could even dream of. By the way, the reason you will not leave the legacy which is your just due is because of your habit of lying American-style: frame your answer in a way that makes what you do legal, no matter what the intent. So, imagine the following phone conversation or letter exchange with your beloved mother. "Billy, your draft notice came". "Not to worry, Ma, just make sure you forward it to Abdul Aziz Ahmed Ali Afridi, Village Pindi, County Thesil, State North West Frontier Province, Country Pakistan." If I had 1/100th of your brains, I'd have been rich AND had the women. As it is, I have neither.

· But back to the point. To be a leader, you have to run the same gamut of risks as they do. Men are funny that way - I know it doesn't compute for a genius like you. But any military officer can tell you this: live, eat, fight, and if it has to be, die with your men. They will follow you anywhere. Even when you become a senior officer and none of them will let you join them in the trenches: they believe in you, now they want to keep you alive so you will lead them well and keep them alive. You have paid your dues. You have made coup.

· Both of us are baby boomers, even if temperamentally I am a bohemian, belonging in soul to the generation before ours. I believe we boomers have committed the greatest crime any generation of Americans have committed: the idea that we have every right known to humanity, but none of the responsibilities.

· Boomers also believe that redemption is possible, no matter how old we may be. Moreover, your child is an adult now, my youngest has left for college. And your wife has no time for you, neither does mine. You are in excellent health despite your heart surgery; I am in reasonable health thanks to the 18 medicines I take. They enable me to leg press half-a-million pounds in two hours at the gym, without breaking a sweat.

· So here's my suggestion for your redemption and mine. Let's both of us go and enlist for two years. Whoa, you say: are you crazy? I'm getting to 60, whatever you may be imbibing to keep your ticker booming.

· Well, here's something an erudite man like yourself man like yourself should appreciate. When the famed British poet and author was a platoon leader in the Great War, among his 70 men he had some that were 60 and had lied to serve their country. He also had some that were underage and had lied for adventure, which is another thing, but still you have to admire these teenagers.

· Now, I don't know how much you know about the Great War, but if we are talking of 60 year old men, you and I are going to have it much, much easier in Iraq than those men had in the trenches of Flanders.

· So, let's go do our duty to our country - still not mine, but I live here, and should not let technicalities stop me from doing what's right - while we still can. Heck, if nothing else we can be medics.

· If you do your duty, you will truly be the American hero that you deserve to be. As for myself, well, my conscience will stop bothering me. That's an important thing when one is our age and the day of the Big Nap approaches. And who knows: maybe 77 Big Hair ladies will be your reward in heaven. Me, I'd just be happy to win a day's parole  from the hot fella who runs the Downstairs Place, the guy who has his number already written across my forehead.

· DEBKA OVER THE TOP In the context of your editor's musing above, "over the top" meant something else, but whatever it means, Debka.com merits this appendage. First Debka tells us that it continues to bring us every move of Al Qaeda - guys, whatever you're imbibing, save some for me, I'm on the next plane out. Then it tells us the latest  move by Mr. Zarqawi. He, says Debka, is writing an encyclopedia. He has on "American Hell 2", and no, Debka is not referring to American news media's coverage of  Iraq. That's Mr. Zarqawi's Volume 2 of his encyclopedia. Gotta hand it to these terrorists: no one can multi-task like them. And imagine: Mr. Zarqawi, so busy slitting throats and planting bombs and so on, still finds time to sit down and write. That man must have the soul of an artist. Come to think of, wasn't Mr. Hitler an artist?

0400 GMT October 26, 2004

· Today's news has an unsatisfactory, unconnected feeling to it. Intuition says something is going on, but does not tell us what, where, and when.

· AFP AND THE SPANISH COW Readers know we highly respect the Agence France Presse. Nonetheless, we'd like someone from AFP to tell us - not that they are likely to do so - why this world class news agency felt compelled to tell us late yesterday night that a cow wandering on to a rail line in Madrid had disrupted  commuter traffic. Moreover, why did AFP not tell us if this was an Al-Qaeda cow, or a CIA cow? We'd have thought that would be the first thing AFP would detail.

· US ELECTION Since the election is almost on us, Orbat.com makes bold to tell its readers that probably the best explanation of what will influence comes from - alas - the Washington Post. An outside contributor writes Sunday that we should disregard all the instant polls, of which there are too many to be of any use. Instead, things to watch for:

· Ohio and Wisconsin are two key states that have not gained from the economic recovery. US economy 3rd figures are due before the election. If these figures show solid growth, voters in these states might be less angry with Mr. Bush and vote for him. The figures will show growth, but if the rate does not convince these states that the recovery is a good one, they may vote for Mr. Kerry.

· Any major attack on US troops in Iraq could cause losses for Mr. Bush. Conversely any major terrorist attack on the US could cause losses for Mr. Kerry. The problem as we see it is that US intelligence agencies have already said they have no information of an attack planned on the US.

· If Mr. Bush can pull Osama, his deputy the mad Egyptian doctor, or the Jordanian Zarqawi out of his hat, Mr. Bush could win the election. Catching the first two by November 2 seems unlikely, unless one believes the US has Osama in quiet custody, waiting for an announcement at an appropriate time, and we at Orbat.com do not think so. Zarqawi's capture is a possibility, particularly if he is not a real person. At the same time, we can't see the US electorate getting too excited about him: he has insufficient brand recognition.

· Ralph Nader is not a factor in this election. That could help Mr. Kerry. Moreover, the Democratic Party has gone all out to register new voters in traditionally Democratic voting groups. Conversely, 4 million Christian evangelists did not vote in the last election as they were disgusted with both candidates. Mr. Bush has taken a hard line on abortion, and has successfully painted Mr. Kerry as an abortion-supporter - nothing wrong here, as that is what Mr. Kerry is. If those evangelicals turn out for Mr. Bush, it's Goodbye, Mr. Kerry.

1300 GMT October 25, 2004

· IRAQ AFP says that following the killing of 48 unarmed Iraq Army recruits on their way home after training, US/Iraq believes it was an "inside job". Suspicions have heightened that insurgents have infiltrated Iraq security, intelligence, and military.

· The infiltration has long been known, people have been arrested for passing information to insurgents, so we are not quite sure why US/Iraq are talking about "suspicions". Nonetheless, making a judgment on this matter is difficult. On the one hand, the need for the US to build up security forces as fast as possible is obvious. On the other hand, from the first experts have been warning that speed is coming at the cost of proper training and vetting of personnel.

· To Orbat.com, the problem originates with the US decision to disband the Iraqi Army, and the continuing failure to reemploy all professional soldiers and to help draftees that also found themselves out of work. Iraq before Gulf II did not have an economic system as most people tend to think of one: overwhelmingly, the government was the sole employer. Dismantling the Army, the civil services, the security services led to huge unemployment for a people already impoverished by years of war and sanctions. Whereas the US has acted to rectify mistakes on groups like teachers, despite several calls from US experts and Arab allies to reemploy the Army have passed unheeded.

· We need to remind readers that the professionals in the Army were just that: professionals. Their first loyalty was to their institution and not to Saddam. Had they been reemployed, given respect, and given a stake in the reconstruction of Iraq, many problems could have been avoid.

· IRAQ INSURGENTS ON DEATH ROW CNN says that 140+ Iraqi insurgents and foreign terrorists have been convicted of capital crimes and face execution. CNN does not say for a fact that the penalty will be carried out. Nonetheless, we do not see how Iraq can maintain state authority without executions. This is not a matter of civil crime, in which area there is a solid case that the death penalty is no deterrent. In civil crime, most killing is not premeditated, or if premeditated, it is not done as a policy tool except by organized crime. These Iraqis/foreigners are waging war against the state and the people of Iraq. And certainly the penalty for foreigners who as mercenaries take up arms against a state, is death.

· 350 TONS OF IRAQ RDX/HDX MISSING Iraq/US have reported to the IAEA that 350 tons of RDX/HDX declared to the IAEA by inspection has vanished. The explosives were under IAEA purview because they are used to trigger nuclear warheads. It is impossible to overstate this disaster because even a few tons can cause havoc. While RDX/HDX is hardly impossible to obtain, it remains a difficult material for non-government persons to acquire. 350,000 kilograms is a potential bonanza for terrorists when skyscrapers can be brought down with a few kilograms correctly placed.

· The Kerry campaign has immediately seized on the incident and demanded that Mr. Bush explain why this was allowed to happen. The facility where the explosives were stores has been looted a number of times. We remain unclear that many Americans will change their presidential preferences because of the matter because these are not the sort of issues that engage the public. And of course, the charge is partisan.

· At the same time, because the charges are being used to highlight the Bush Administration's mishandling of Iraq post-war security, and because the mishandling arose because of deliberate decisions to ignore warnings of post-war trouble by influential and varied sources such as the CIA, this does become a legitimate campaign topic.

· The real question is, what did Mr. Kerry as Senator do to ensure the Bush Administration acted on the warnings? Mr. Kerry is erudite and intelligent, with active service experience. If the Bush Administration has been stupid, Mr. Kerry has been negligent. Had he brought up this issue, as a then supporter of Gulf II, he would have been a credible critic.

· GOD, MR. BUSH, AND IRAQ Your editor loves America because it is such a crazy place. You can die of many things in America, but never of boredom. To amuse us in this drear season, Christian Evangelist Mr. Pat Robertson now reveals that after consulting God, he advised Mr. Bush not to invade Iraq because of the casualties that were certain to occur, but Mr. Bush told him there would be no casualties. Just imagine: a religious leader tells the President of the US not to undertake a war, and the President blows him off. Oh the idiocy of that Mr. Bush! And how hypocritical of Mr. Bush to claim he is a devout Christian and still refusing to listen to God's Messenger!

· Of course, if you are or are not accepted as God's Messenger seems to depend on if you can get away with it. when Mr. Robertson claims the God connection, people shower him with millions of dollars. If your editor said: "God wants all strikingly beautiful women age 25-50 of deep intelligence and immense learning to do as I say," the state is likely to confiscate his Tennessee Rot Gut hoard and force feed him elephant tranquilizers. To add insult to injury, the shortly to be ex-Mrs. Rikhye sneeringly said: "And what are you going to have them do, given your pathetic age, lack of money, and equally pathetic *bleep* skills? Make them feed you chocolate?" Your editor is definitely going to miss this Mrs. Rikhye. No previous Mrs. R knows him as well as she does.

· We have not read the original remarks, and odd as it may seem to our readers, American or not, your editor has a great deal of respect for Mr. Robertson. In a country that has taken to defining morality as meaning whatever an individual wants it to mean, Mr. Robertson is a Good Person. We wonder, however, if Mr. Robertson knew about the persecution of Christians under Saddam. And if Mr. Robertson had told Mr. Bush: "I worry that post-war the few remaining Christians will be targeted", we'd have to say Mr. Robertson is a Wise Person. Apparently - and please correct us if we are wrong, somewhere up to 70,000 Christians have fled Iraq after Gulf II. This represents half of an already seriously depleted community. We have been told - and again, please correct us if needed, that Iraqi Christians pre Saddam numbered 3% of the population, implying that without his persecution, there should have been 750,000 in Iraq, not 150,000.

0300 GMT October 24, 2004

· FALLUJAH US forces raided Fallujah and captured a newly-appointed senior aide to Zarqawi and five other insurgents/terrorists. Analysis below.

· DAFUR some good news about Dafur. The African Union has approved a 3,500 person security force to protect refugees and to prevent the marauding Khartom-backed militias that have created a genocidal situation in this province of Sudan. The European Union has pledged half of the $221-million required for the mission.

· The United States has - we are very embarrassed to say this because Orbat.com is a big USA booster - put two C-130s at the AU's disposal for a limited time to ferry troops and equipment. And think: but for Secretary Powell's tireless advocacy for Dafur, backed by several members of Congress, even this much wouldn't have happened.

· On the less positive side, if even Secretary Powell can get only two C-130s to help a people that are dying at a rate of 4 figures each week, this doesn't say much for America's willingness to help black nations.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY

· SOMALIA: DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN The good news is that Somalia has a president again. The bad news is that he cannot go to Somalia. He was elected by the main Somali factions meeting outside the country, after lengthy and convoluted negotiations.

· More bad news: he has asked for 20,000 African Union troops to disarm the warring militia who rule Somalia, and the reaction is: this man is totally out of touch with reality. No one is going to send troops in to fight, which is what the peacemaking force will have to do, not after what happened in 1993.

· Ah yes. What did happen in 1993? 19 US soldiers were killed during a raid, and America turned yellow-tail. Did the leaders who took America out of Somalia before a person can blink ask the American people what they thought? Did they take the matter to the people and say: "Look, we're going to suffer casualties. But we think its for a worthwhile cause, a noble and a just cause. What do you say?" Your editor is willing to bet the American people would have said yes.

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