0230 GMT March 14, 2006

0230 GMT August 31, 2006

Our Favorite Dictator President Chavez is disappointing us these days. With Lebanon 2006 done with, we've been checking up on him for our entertainment fix. Sad to say, he has been behaving himself. How boring.
Lately he has been in Syria to get Damascus to join his anti-US crusade. We wonder if he understands that people like the Syrians and Iranians are very tough cookies behind the elaborate, almost oriental facades of hospitality and lavish mutual praises. We are told the two countries consider him amusing, and anyone is welcome to join them in a bit of US-bashing. But they take neither him nor his ambitions with any seriousness.
Can Anyone Take Xinhua Seriously? It is still carrying the same headlines from last week: for Xinhua to keep giving stale news is fast becoming a ritual. The website is a joke and affront to serious news junkies. Its August 30 edition was still up at 0130 GMT and its lead stories include datelines of August 23 and at least 4 stories from August 24 plus fossils from the 25th.
Israel Refuses To Lift Lebanon Blockade saying that it will not do so till Hezbollah complies with 1701 and unconditionally releases the two Israeli soldiers. I
Hezbollah Says No Way will it release the captives with a prisoner exchange.
So again we have Israel punishing Lebanon. Hezbollah is not a signatory to 1701. What is it Israel wants: the Lebanese Army to get back the men? As if it can when even Israel cannot.
Our prediction is like it or not Israel is going to have to lift the blockade, and the more time Israel takes, the greater fiasco there will be for it and for the US.
Cluster Bombs: UN Cites Israel Let us first state that personally we have no position on cluster bombs. We completely understand why people work to get them banned, like they want napalm banned. At the same time, in war people die in a large number of unpleasant ways and it seems besides the point to say its okay to kill them in these 10 ways but not in those ten ways. We are aware that cluster bombs present a grave threat to civilians after a war. Well, so do a number of other circumstances. So please keep our agnostic position before reading the rest of this.
The UN says 90% of Israeli cluster bombs were used in the last 72 hours of the war, when it was obvious to everyone the war was ending. And of course, they have been used mainly against civilians because Hezbollah was operating from within civilians and also because the Israelis felt they had to unleash one last orgy of destruction to prove their manhood was not diminished.
The Israelis are going to have to face the consequences, like it or not. when the UN head of humanitarian relief accuses a country of immoral action, the world is not simply going to forget what happened. And this is going to hit the US too. The world has changed a lot in 20 years and the US is not going to get away by whacking Israel with a limp noodle as it did the last time the cluster bomb thing came up.

0230 GMT August 30, 2006

Lebanon: In Our Humble Opinion A massive wave of pessimism has hit western media/analysts as the real dimensions of the new mission Europe has undertaken sink in.
We believe the pessimism is unwarranted. We realize this is a reversal of our earlier position. But one's analyses have to be based on facts, and facts keep changing.
There are five parties to the ceasefire: Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Iran, Syria.
Lebanon is irrelevant to any future outcome. Much puffery is being expended on polls that show half of Lebanon wants Hezbollah disarmed. Our reaction to these polls is: (a) Aaaaaand? and (b) we are surprised half of Lebanon wants Hezb disarmed. We'd have thought it would be 70%.
Look, folks, Shias constitute 40% of Lebanon. They cannot possibly be working as a bloc: there have to be Shia who are opposed to Hezb. 60% of Lebanon is Christian, other Muslim, Druze, etc. None of those people has any reason to like Hezb.
The simple reality is no one gives a farthing about what the government of Lebanon thinks. Hezb is armed, trained, and of its people. If the Lebanese army moves against Hezb, the first thing happens is the Lebanese Army splits; second thing that happens is civil war.
There is no one in Lebanon of any denomination who wants to risk civil war again. So lets please stop talking of Hezb being disarmed by Lebanon.
Hezbollah has made its point by holding its own against Israel. Its very sad to see the incredible self-deception so many Israelis are engaged in about having defeated Hezbollah. Hezb is a guerilla movement; mere survival is enough. It held its own against the best troops in the Israeli Army, it may have inflicted more KIA on Israel than suffered by its cadres even if the total number of Hezb cadres plus auxiliaries was more than Israel's KIA. It stopped Israel's famed armor cold - at least 46 Merkevas got knocked out, by the way. The Israeli AF could not stop Hezb from launching rockets into Israel. The rocket barrage shut down northern Israel. Like most others, we were counting the human casualties and concluding these were insignificant. This is not the way the Israelis were looking at it. Life stopped, an alarmingly large number of people were left to fend on their own, and the IDF could not stop the rockets. Lets stop talking of an Israeli victory.
Hezb is sitting very pretty. It is not reacting to Israeli provocations. It is helping people rebuild. It is apologizing to the people of Lebanon. It is avoiding celebrations and armed displays. what does this tell us? Hezb is not just confident, it has no reason at all to break the ceasefire.
Syria and Iran Both have emerged much stronger vis-a-vis the US and Israel. Neither has anything to gain by jeopardizing these political/diplomatic/military gains by reckless adventures. Both want to tell US/Israel: don't think you can run over the Mideast and us. We are forces to be dealt with. Like it or not, you have to negotiate with us. Any behavior that can reduce the chances US/Israel will be compelled to negotiate will be avoided by the two.
That leaves Israel There is real fear that Israel will find the status quo unacceptable and resume hostilities. Here we are going to really stick our necks out. We think its possible Israel has learned its lesson about force and its limits. If we are wrong, and Israel goes again for war and again starts hammering Lebanon, well, all we can say there is going to big trouble with Syria, Iran, and Iraq. Things will not turn out well. And Europe will be very, very unhappy with Israel.
The real issue is Iran has outflanked the US. US attacks Iran, Iran unleashes Hezbollah - a much stronger version, by the way, against Israel.
Iraq Fighting Now here is an interesting situation. Iraq army moves to disarm Al-Sadr militia in Diwaniya, south of Baghdad. Al-Sadr tells militia "lay down your arms". Militia says rude things to Al-Sadr and whups Iraqi Army despite support to the latter by Polish troops and US air power. People in the town now go around dazed, saying one moment everything was peaceful and now the militia has taken over.
Oh those Iraqis! They do the darnest things!
Hey, Washington! Get the hint? Time to leave, boys. Too many crazies. How many wars is the US military to fight? First it was the war against Saddam and his army. That mutated into a Sunni insurgency. Now the Sunnis are backing the US and Americans are fighting Shias.
Rummy Rumster keeps making Delphic pronouncements the import of which all seem to be that critics of the war are venal traitors to America. Someone please ask Rummy: what does what's happening in Iraq now have to do with America? Huh? Huh? Tell us, Rummy. You gonna deal with the splits in the Shia militias next, Rummy? Al-Sadr's militia seems to have split, and then there are people like the Shia Badr militia who have been dying to have a go at Al-Sadr and have been fighting his men in the south. So the war could mutate again into Shia-vs-Shia. One thing will not change: Rummy will be bravely waving the American flag from the safety of Washington, DC.
We are firm believers in the theory that old men send young men to die in war so they, the old men, can have the young women. The old men can no longer fight the young men for the women, so they resort to these devious means. The biological imperative and all that. By the way, we always get confused when we expound this theory because we are not sure if we came up with it ourselves. But the upshot is that either society provides the old men in the power elite free young women to keep them -the oldies - quiet, or it puts the oldies on medication that- you know what we mean, its so embarrassing to say this outright - keeps them quiet.

0230 GMT August 29, 2006

Israel And The Law Of Unintended Consequences We were second to no one in cheering Israel in its war against Hezbollah. Where we very quickly turned against Israel was when we saw, within days, that Israel was more interesting in applying the boot to Lebanon's neck than in fighting Hezbollah. Added to that was Israel's ineptitude, continued arrogance, and - dare we say it - cowardice in fighting a really tough enemy, the first such Israel has ever faced.
So when Israel came up with the idea of getting European troops to guarantee its security against Hezbollah, readers will recall we hit the roof. It takes a peculiar kind of cruelty to say, in effect, "we cant fight Hezbollah, but we will go on hammering the Lebanese people till you send in your troops to fight Hezbollah". Moreover, we couldn't understand why the Europeans were being so stupid to take this mission.
Well, everything has now been explained, and to give you the punchline before the story, Israel has set itself up for a shafting greater than it could imagine in its worst nightmares.
The Key To The Situation lies in a statement made by the Italian foreign minister - thanks to reader marcopetroni for the item. "It might be possible to deploy an international force in Gaza as well. It depends on the success of the Lebanon mission".
Well folks, there you have it. Don't be deceived by the "might be possible". This is a diplomat speaking. That he is articulating the thought before the first Italian soldier arrives in Lebanon is tantamount, in diplospeak, to saying "we are going to do it". A seasoned diplomat never speculates, and this is not a speculation, it is an announcement of intended action. Since the Palestinians will welcome any relief from Israel's rule, the statement is aimed at Israel alone.
Incidentally, while we have been critics of Debka.com for its pretentious "Our sources reveal" style of reporting, we have to compliment them for catching the real meaning of the European deployment before any other media source we have seen.
You can see now that if the real target is Palestine, a conflict that has gone on for 6 decades, and which the Muslim leadership uses as an excuse for every prevision it visits on its people and on the west, then of course the risks the Europeans are taking are well worth the game.
Seen in this light, the European initiative is very bold indeed, and all the carping we and others have been doing about Europe's diplomatic/military weakness is beside the point. Needless to say, the Europeans are also acting to head off confrontation with a future N-armed Iran. The move represents a true paradigm shift in world affairs.
As such, while we fear Europe does not have the will and capability to pull this off, we hope Europe can.
Where Does This Leave Hezbollah? The way we see it, Hezbollah is moving very rapidly to reposition itself from being seen as the problem to being seen as a vital part of the solution. Look at it from Hezbollah's viewpoint: the Europeans are coming to beat Israel into line, something Hezbollah obviously cannot do by itself. Its one thing to have stopped Israel in South Lebanon, it is a very different matter to actually defeat Israel in Israel. Hezbollah can never do that; we can be certain it knows it cannot. But if the Europeans are going to do it for Hezbollah and other Arabs, wouldn't you, if you were Hezbollah, cooperate with the Europeans to the fullest extent?
Now does Hezbollah's voluntary demolition of its outposts in the Shaba Farms area and removal of weapons make sense? You bet it does.
So, Back To The Law Of Unintended Consequences Israel hoped Europe would take Hezbollah off Israel's back. Europe will, with Hezbollah's full cooperation. Because the European monkey is now going to be on Israel's back.
Finally something interesting is happening in some part of the world. Readers, keep two things in mind. There is a very, very long way to go. These are very early days. Second, if you are American, think of what we said the other day. Europeans think Israel is the greatest danger in the Middle East. If you look at this as an American, nothing Europe is doing makes sense. Looked at it from the European perspective as to who is the problem, then what Europe is doing makes perfect sense.

0230 GMT August 28, 2006

Rioting In Quetta after the killing of the leading Baluch insurgent leader. At this stage we put little significance on the rioting, which is widespread, with nearly 500 arrests. We still think the government has scored a major victory, and speculation about the killing of the leader leading to a hardening of Baluchi opposition to the government is just the usual trite words media uses to "show" it is engaged in "deep thinking". In other words, a 12-year-old could come up with that analysis. In our opinion, which is of course subject to change as developments occur, Pakistan will be able to easily deal with the aftermath of the leader's demise.
Debka.com Leads Off With Israeli Allegations About UNIFIL-2 Readers will recall we have been saying the minute UNIFIL-2 - as it is now called - gets into the act Israelis are going to start making allegations about its partisanship and its helping Hezbollah and so on. So Debka.com's allegations that this is already happen come as no surprise. What does come as a surprise is the speed with which Israelis - any Israelis - have reacted. UNIFIL-2 is just being formed, it will be months before it is fully operational, and it is already under attack.
If you are interested, read the original article "European Lebanon Force Is Cast as Shield for Iranian-Hizballah Military Buildup"
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1205.[Thanks to reader marcopetroni for forwarding.] The tone of the article will strike you as hysterical. Debka makes some dubious claims, such as Scud missiles arriving in Lebanon. Even if this is so - and we'd like to see some other sources before accepting it - large and heavy missiles/launchers pose little threat to Israel. The IsAF is quite capable of going after these.
Nonetheless, to dismiss all of Debka's wild hyperbole would be wrong. Debka has a definite point when it fears Europe participation in UNIFIL-2 will be used as a back-door for imposition of a forced solution on the Palestine question. Israel may not fully appreciate it, but the world as a whole is completely sick and tired of Israeli repression in Palestine - and we say this without intending in any way to take a position on if Israel can do things in Palestine differently. The Europeans regard Israel as the greatest threat to Mideast peace - with good reason if you are looking at things from a European perspective. They are convinced the US is completely sold out to Tel Aviv and will not do anything Tel Aviv: and who can argue the Europeans are wrong. The Euros feel its time for them to take a hand.
Well, good luck to them if they can pull it off. Israel is not going to lie down and let the Europeans walk all over it, even if ultimately it is for Israel's good.
Hezbollah's Nasrullah Gives An Almost Apology - that is our interpretation of the CNN story where he says he did not anticipate war because of the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers.
Interestingly, he says negotiations are underway through third parties.
On this point we agree with Debka: Nasrullah can afford to be contrite, sweet, and reasonable now that he has won the war and is being rearmed. He is looking to play a larger role in Lebanon - how we are not sure at this point. He is either seeking to split off southern Lebanon or else he plans to become the dominating influence in the country. He is well on track toward achieving either objective.

0230 GMT August 27, 2006

Pakistan Forces Kill Key Baluch Insurgent Leader The leader of the Bugti tribe, a majority of which is in rebellion against the Federal Government of Pakistan, has been killed during a 3-day engagement which is still continuing at last report.
Following a crackdown by Pakistan forces, the leader along with a core of followers fled into the mountains several months ago. Pakistan indicates he was tracked to a cave via satellite phone. The cave entrance was bombed, presumably by the Pakistan Air Force. 27 security personnel including officers of the elite Special Service Group were killed. Between 35 and 60 insurgents were killed, depending on which account one goes by. The toll included two grandsons of the insurgent leader, though from other reports it seems one may have been captured.
Major Setback For Baluch Nationalists and for India, which has been aiding Baluch separatists, though it is not clear what role if any India played with the Bugtis: Baluch tribal politics is highly fragmented. Nonetheless, insofar as the Bugti chieftain was the senior most Baluch insurgent leader, his death is not good news for India.
Iran Commissions Heavy Water Plant Despite all the Western focus on Iran's uranium enrichment program, the plutonium route is far easier. Iran reportedly intends to begin construction of a plutonium production reactor at Arak, where the heavy water plant is located. A heavy-water moderated plutonium production reactor is not as easy to put together as some proliferation experts claim, but it is a lot easier than enriching uranium.
Our estimate for Iran's 1st N-bomb: 8-10 years. And we repeat: Pakistan does not have anything resembling a usable N-weapon. It is likely to have 1-2 warheads in 4+ years. Yes, yes, we know how Iran is about to go nuclear in 6 months and Pakistan has 20-50 warheads and so on and so forth. Once in a very great while we get asked "how do you know?" Our response to that is highly sophisticated: "and how do you know?" That usually ends the argument because the other side gets outraged that we are not deferring to its intelligence sources. Well, we have our own intelligence sources, and if the other side's intel really believes what it is saying, our advice is: fire your intel people. They're no good.
No danger anyone will get fired. There is a universe of difference between the information that agents - human or otherwise - produce and what gets to the media. The product gets distorted at every step of the chain; longer the chain, more the distortion.
Chad Orders Two Oil Majors Out in an effort to gain increasing share of revenue from its oil. Chad says it has been getting 12.5% revenue, while the various oil companies have already earned $5-billion on a $3-billion investment. The two control 60% of output. Exxon Mobil is not affected by the order.
Chad is at odds with the World Bank: the latter financed the Chad-Gabon pipeline under some of the toughest conditions ever imposed on a borrower, so that as little money as possible might be corruptly diverted. Chad has been demanding greater control of the revenues it gets to provide for national defense, as it faces a rebellion.
The rumor is the expulsion is intended to benefit China, with whom Chad established diplomatic relations a few weeks ago.
This is one of those backwater crises that could have a much larger impact than at first assessed. China clearly needs energy, and if the rumors are correct then it is ready to play for high stakes.
Sudan Building Up Forces In Dafur and government is refusing to accept 17,000 UN troops in place of the lightly armed 7000 African Union troops that are having a very difficult time protecting Dafur refugees.
US has sent an envoy to Khartoum, but we are unclear what pressure the US can bring. Washington's stock is at a new ebb after Lebanon 2006; you are going to see a lot of tyrants big and small defy the US if only to assert themselves.
Amara Mutiny We forgot to add: the mutiny by elements of Iraq 10th Division at Amara had nothing to do with the British pulling out of their base. It began because of rumors that the brigade in question was to be ordered to Baghdad. To the troops, this was a dastardly plot by the Americans to kill them.
At which point in reasonable reader says: "Whoa! Whoa! say what again? That does not compute! Its the Iraqi Army, the brigade is needed in Baghdad, so shouldn't it be quietly preparing to move to Baghdad?"
Well, you see, there is a problem. The brigade - is it the 4th? - is heavily recruited from the Sadr and other Shia militias. They have a cozy life in the south, where the division is based. Nary an American to be seen, just the Brits, doing their best to pass off as eager-to-please, good natured, non-threatening village idiots. But if we go to Baghdad, those Americans are going to make us work. The horror of it all - but readers, do remember these guys are volunteers, not draftees. Moreover, the Americans, who are renown for the indifference as to what the locals think of them, are inscrutable. You just don't what they're up to. Next thing you know, officers will get replaced, NCOs will get fired, graft will be stomped on, training will have to be held, orders will have to be followed, and all the time the Americans will be screaming, shouting, shoving at you. Its all just too much, mom, that's not what I joined the Army for! I joined for free money, the easy life, the opportunity to extort, and the chance to murder Sunnis!
Luckily, a lot of the Iraq is not like that. They're professionals who want to do the right thing. But honestly, you will be amazed at how many Iraqis simply desert because they think the Americans make army life too hard.
So what was it like in Saddam's days? Well, we're not too sure. Armies are institutions where as few as 3% of really determined people - key officers and NCOs - can really, really, really force their will on the other 97%. In Saddam's days deserters would be shot or if they were lucky, just mutilated. Better to obey orders and have the chance of surviving than desert and know you're dead.

0230 GMT August 26, 2006

British Evacuate Amarah, Iraq and the local Shia militias including Al-Sadr's mob are wild with joy at having forced the British out. We can eschew the hair splitting here: the British say they did not want to continue posing as a static target for insurgent and militia attacks, they will now proceed to do their Long Range Desert Patrol thing and redefine their role as interdiction of arms and men from Iran. But forced out they have been, because the game was no longer worth the trouble for them.
The British base was immediately looted down to the usual screws and hinges, and a local Iraq Army unit staged a mutiny. In other words, everything normal.
We are not about to criticize the British. This stupid war is not of their making, they are in it only out of loyalty to their treaty partner. They gain no strategic advantage from it win or lose.
Meanwhile, Al-Sadr Has Become The Menace We Predicted His is the strongest faction among the Iraqis, and he is busy at his usual game of killing Sunnis - and persons of any denomination who are in his way as he grabs more and more power.
Where the Americans are - most recently in Baghdad - the killings go down and security improves. Where the Americans are not, or where from they leave, back to the usual killing and butchering.
Having learned from its two major run-ins with the US military, Al-Sadr's militia now stays out of sight when US forces are patrolling; when they leave, the militia emerges again like cockroaches.
Iran Fighting Kurd Separatists says Times London. This is a matter of common knowledge. Operating in very difficult mountain terrain in the Kandil range, Northwest Iran, the Kurds have set up an autonomous government and are resisting the Iranians. Turkey and Iran are working together to stomp out the Kurds. we have yet to pick up reliable information as to the US actions vis-a-vis Iranian Kurds.
Lebanon Damage $15-Billion according to Xinhua quoting UNDP. Lebanon has been put back 15 years in its recovery effort.
Well done, Israel. Great job. Got your two boys back yet?

0230 GMT August 25, 2006

France To Contribute 2 Battalions To UNIFIL Plus we should clarify the term "UNIFIL Plus" is our own, intended to distinguish the new UNIFIL from the pre-Lebanon 2006 force.
France will send 1600 troops and says it is prepared to lead the force, though if Italy sends 3000 France, which will have a total of 2000 including troops already in Lebanon, may not be able to claim the lead.
We wish Europe good luck in Lebanon. It's going to need more than just luck to survive, but who knows. UNIFIL Plus may adopt a non-confrontationist style and Hezbollah may live with it peacefully.
One thing to remember: the entry of European troops into Lebanon is against Syria's strategic interest. So whatever Hezbollah may think about UNIFIL Plus, it is not the only Syria-connected terror group around. And with Al Qaeda said to be arriving in Gaza, can AQ-Lebanon be far behind.
Australia To Add 2 Army Battalions one mechanized, one light infantry, to meet its increased anti-terror, Pacific, and international missions responsibilities. 2600 additional troop slots are to be sanctioned on top of 1600 already approved. This will take the Australian Army to - gasp! - almost 30,000 troops.
We don't mean to make fun of Australia, which is showing far great foresight and courage in the new world war than a lot of countries we could name. Rather, we want to draw attention to the west's inane belief it can fight the new world war without increasing force levels and the sacrifices required of its people.
US House Intelligence Committee Report Faults US Intelligence For Lack Of Iran Intelligence We aren't going to get into this because one cannot discuss anything serious with a bunch of morons. Does the House "Intelligence" Committee - think Austin Powers - think that real intelligence is gotten merely by just giving a few orders, making a few bureaucratic reorganizations, and shifting a bit of money around? Does the Committee think this is a matter of improving traffic flow on a congested interstate highway?. The Committee would do well to refer to the Book of Revelations III:4 - "They wander clueless in the desert who are condemned to remain clueless in the desert." Words as applicable today as they were 3500 years ago. Translation ours.

0230 GMT August 24, 2006

Royal Institute of International Affairs On Iran-US: We Respectfully Disagree We haven't seen the study, but are sure it is cogent, detailed, and thoroughly analyzed as is the case with Chatham House papers. The study says the real real constraint on US acting against Iran is that the latter could destabilize Iraq even further than it is is already destabilized.
Our information is Iran is exercising no restraint on destabilizing Iraq. It is already doing its worst, and if things are not as bad as they could be, its because the Iraqi Shias are, well, Iraqi. Nationalism is the dominant force in the Arab world and not religion.
But as for what we read about the rest of the report, we have no disagreement. Particularly on the point that while US policy in the region is in tatters, Iran is moving confidently to assert its primacy in West Asia. In the confrontation between Iran and the US, the US is not calling any shots at this time, and its pathetic attempts to seize the initiative by working with Israel to attack Hezbollah have cascaded the US into its weakest position ever in the Mideast. If things continue spiraling downhill the way they are, the states that form the backbone of US influence in the region - Saudi, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE - will be making greater accommodations to appease Teheran than the US can imagine in its worst nightmares.
Has Israel No Shame? Oh gosh, how stupid of us to ask. Of course it doesn't. When you have the colossal sense of entitlement Israel manifests, then no matter what you do, you are justified, and no matter what the other side does, they are not justified. So its okay to lay waste to Lebanon because two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hezbollah, and how dare anyone suggest the Israelis were wrong to do that? Etc.
So having gotten itself into a huge mess, and failing to get the US/Europe to pull it out of the mess by taking over the dismantling of Hezbollah, the interdicting of arms from Iran, the neutralization of Syria and so on, the Israelis are now tromping up and down Europe, threatening the Europeans if they don't save Israel, Israel will have to resume the war because the situation is so dire.
Our advice: put a 10-week old sock in it, folks. No one in Europe is buying this "sky is falling theory", and Hezbollah is behaving - to Orbat.com's chagrin and fury - with calm restraint. Our information is the Israelis are doing a lot to provoke Hezb but the latter is refusing to play the Israeli game.
Our further advice: go to your Uncle and bug him. Why should the Europeans provide troops to clean up Israel's potty messes? They didn't encourage you to go to war. But of course, you are learning the hard way about Uncle. He hates losers. He will dump his own crippled mother in favor of a winner. Israel, right now winner you are not. Be warned.
Instead of wasting time, get your reserves back into uniform, send your generals back to school, and start training to do the job right next time. The Arabs smell blood - your blood. If you don't hit back and successfully, you're done for. Your population may as well apply for US visas and you can forget the dreams you waited 2000 years to see materialize.
By the way, and we say this quite seriously, it might not be a bad idea to move Israel to the US. Six million educated, intelligent, and hard-working people - what's not to like?
And also by the way, Israel is not the only country that will benefit from a huge time out. The US needs one too, very badly. The US should use its time out to become energy independent and then go out again on the world empire building thing.

0230 GMT August 23, 2006

Iran Says It Is Ready To Start Serious Talks On Its N-Program but says it will not halt enrichment which is its right. Our reaction? Zzzzzzzzzzz.
US Talks Of Evasions and Sanctions Our reaction? Zzzzzzzzzzz.
Europeans Haunted By The Casualties of Rwanda, Lebanon, Bosnia Etc says Jerusalem Post explaining the delays in sending European troops to Lebanon. We weep with sympathy for the poor haunted Euros. Lets see: it is said 800,000 civilians were killed in Rwanda, now just how how many European troops were killed, can someone tell us? Hundreds of thousands of people died in the Balkan wars. Will someone enlighten us as to how many European forces troops died. Or US troops for that matter?
Don't people who complain of being haunted have any shame or decency? No one gives a hang about your psychological problems, people. Just admit you are cowards and Orbat.com will leave you alone. Your editor is quite big on the cowardice thing himself: but then he doesn't go around fantasizing he counts for anything in the world. Same goes for the Europeans.
But When It Comes To Intimidating Black Africans We Euros Are Just So Brave There is no clear winner in the Congo elections and the armed militias of the president and his main opponent have been fighting. To the rescue, charge! European troops from the peacekeeping mission in Gabon were immediately flown in and the fighting has stopped. What bravehearts! what magnificent, courageous warriors! No danger too great as long there is no chance of them getting hurt.
Something stinks in the Kingdom of Euroland and it isn't just the dead fish.
Jang of Pakistan Accuses West Of Trying To Do Afghanistan On The Cheap And Then Blaming Pakistan People, people, lets be fair here. The west has been doing Afghanistan on the cheap. And if it weren't for Pakistan's support of the new Taliban, the west might even have gotten away with it.
Personally, we are against blaming Pakistan for the situation. We've explained many times Pakistan is only acting in the interests of its national security. The way to handle the situation is not to try and kill the Pakistanis with talk, a stupid game if there ever was one because the Pakistanis are far more skilled at it than the west will ever be.
The way is to send more troops, more aid, and more development people to Afghanistan. No sense our saying that, because we all know how "overextended" - think Austin Powers - the Europeans are. Quite hilarious, actually what the Europeans call overextended. It means they have had to lift their left little toe a tenth of a millimeter.
In The Interests Of Equity Why this sudden surge of Euro bashing? Well, we have to be fair. We've been bashing the US quite a bit these last few weeks, and heaven knows we've actually been quite mild.
But that's not what we meant by being fair. If were were to make the mistake of telling a European: "Two of three US ground forces brigades are either in Iraq, or rotating to/back from Iraq, so why the heck can't you guys move your fat behinds a bit more - just sit on the insurgents/sectarian militias and you'll crush them with the weight and widths of said butts - the Europeans could just as well reply by saying: "You Americans always mistake stupidly running around in circles making holes in the ground with effectiveness and making progress, and we're a bit smarter than that."
When it comes to Iraq, its not easy for us to come up a repartee to the European repartee.

0230 GMT August 22, 2006

Iran Openly defies UN Inspectors CNN says Iran refused IAEA inspectors permission to examine the Nantez gas centrifuge enrichment facility which is supposed to be under safeguard.
This is a clear violation of Teheran's treaty obligations, and it comes a day before Iran said it would give its final answer to the new proposals mooted at the UN to contain its weapons program. It also comes a couple of days after Iran launched maneuvers ostensibly to integrate lessons of Lebanon 2006 into its defense doctrine. Well, since as Lebanon 2006 ended just last week, it seems a bit much to assume the lessons have been learned, analyzed, and applied to the armed forces to the point they are using new doctrines in mass maneuvers. Lets see what happens later today.
Meantime, what is the Great Wuss aka the USA going to do? Blow more hot air? Get San Marino to attack the Iranian N-program? Issue a declaration of victory and go home? We breathlessly await Washington's reaction. We know what Little Wuss aka Israel is going to do. Go shoot a few more Palestinians and feel terribly brave. Bah to you both.
Now Here Is A Fairy Tale The media is carrying stories about how US and Israeli intelligence - oxymoroic words - "detected" that Iran was loading planes with missiles including anti-ship missiles for Hezbollah. The planes would skirt Turkey en route to Syria. US/Israel alerted Turkey to intercept the aircraft.
The planes were in the air and Iran discovered what was happening. It recalled the planes, unloaded them, and sent them off again. The planes were forced to land in Turkey and found to contain - isn't this most amazing? - no weapons.
Israeli, US, and Turkish intel are so clever that we faint with admiration - someone please sprinkle rose-water over us so we can revive.
Orbat.com intel, however, tells a different story. It says Iranian intel has so thoroughly infiltrated Turkish, Israeli, and US intel that it learned - just as the planes were about to enter Turkey - that the game was up. So Iran recalled its aircraft, and just to stick it to the three musketeers - or should it be mouseketeers - sent the planes back without weapons and then laughed itself sick at the spectacle it made of the three.
You didn't like that story? Lets try again. Iran did not send any weapons on planes that were to fly through Turkish airspace to begin with. Iranian intel did not infiltrate anyone. No planes were recalled. What happened is that Israeli intel made asses of themselves and when Turkey found nothing on the planes, the Israelis hurriedly came up with a big fat lie to save their faces.
You didn't like that story? We can come up with more! And we are sure they will be more plausible than the version given to the media.

The Art Of Making Up A Plausible Story: Advice To The Young

It occurred to the editor that he has been sadly delinquent in his occasional Advice To The Young feature. So here goes a short one.
It often said that the number of Americans who claim to have served in the Special Forces in Vietnam exceeds, by a sizeable multiple, the number of SF deployed during that war.
So when your editor does his boasting, he makes no such claim. If someone is complaining about the food they are eating, he'll say: "when I was in the delta all we got to eat for weeks on end was a fistful of rice each day for dinner. We kept the water we cooked the rice in for breakfast. Lunch was whatever we could find by way of reeds - and if we didn't find any reeds, well, we just didn't get any lunch."
At which point the eyes of those who know your editor tend to roll with many groans of "there he goes again". But occasionally there will be an impressionable young thing whose eyes will get as big as saucers. The conversation typically goes like this:
"You were in Vietnam with the Special Forces?" - everyone assumes that because only the SF would be eating that badly.
"Not on your life, ma'am. I am such a coward I avoided the draft, what to speak of enlisting in the Special Forces."
"But then what were you doing in Vietnam?"
"Now, I don't recall mentioning Vietnam. But if you must know, I was minding my own business, just cycling along, viewing the scenery, when I took a wrong turn, and next thing you know, the entire darn world is shooting at me for no reason. Well, ma'am, I just went to ground and spent the next few months trying to stay alive, shivering in my wet socks wondering how I'd ever get out of this alive...etc etc..."
"But what were you really doing in the delta?" Young Thing will ask.
" Just trying to stay alive and get out of there, Ma'am. More I cannot say."
Well, obviously more your editor cannot say because there is no more, but say no more the right way and the Young Thing automatically assumes you were must have been on a clandestine mission for the CIA or whomever and you must have been terribly brave because you are insisting you were such a coward and so on and so forth.
Its called Reverse Psychology. Go to Vietnam? Someone has to be kidding. One look at the feet of a grunt who has been slogging through the paddies for a week or ten days will put anyone off Vietnam or deltas or wet places for the rest of their lives. They will become confirmed pacifists.
As for the handful of rice: well, people would be surprised how many people, tens of millions at a time, have to live like that and be grateful that they at least have boiled rice water for breakfast. There is no reason except for politics anyone should have live like that in the Year of the Lord 2006. But - as they say - that's life, and - after all - if we forgo that next Starbucks its not like the people who are starving will benefit any, isn't it? Isn't it?

0230 GMT August 21, 2006

More Confusion On UNIFIL Plus First the Lebanese President says Lebanon will not accept UN contingents from countries that do not have ties with Israel, aligning his position with that of the Israelis.
Then we are told, by Jerusalem Post, that the Prime Minister and President of Lebanon don't speak with one voice. In the case of the troop deployment this doesn't matter because there is no practical manner in which Israel can be made to accept troops it doesn't want. Nonetheless, while certainly we were aware that the Lebanese polity is highly fragmented, we had no idea that on such critical matters the President and PM can be speaking for themselves/their faction and not the country.
Next, Haaretz Says UN Troops Can Fire On Armed Hezbollah Fighters Till we see confirmation, we are completely confused by this report. Haaretz says a UN spokesperson has said so. We checked the UNIFIL site; it is updated to August 18 and there is no mention of this. The UN News Service is updated to August 20 and there is no mention of this either.
On the one hand, this is a Chapter 6 mission: UNIFIL Plus is not supposed to use force except when threatened, and it is unclear that the mere sighting of armed men who can belong to any faction constitutes a threat.
If it does, then we are talking about Chapter 7, which authorizes proactive use of force. This in effect means UNIFIL Plus has authority to disarm fighters that it sees. Now, if we are slipping over into Chapter 7, who is to provide the airpower, armor, and artillery to take on Hezb - does anyone remember what Hezb did to the very-heavily mechanized and lavishly-airpower-supported Israeli Army just a few days ago?
Because if Hezb fighters are going to be fired on, they are going to retaliate with the whole plethora of mortar attacks, snipers, and roadside/vehicle bombs. Which UN contingent is going to sit there and keep taking casualties?
There is only one contingent that will do it without flinching, and that is the Indian contingent. Hezb is going to walk over the Europeans who are fantastically sensitive to casualties and it will massacre contingents that are trained/armed/equipped for robust response. Politically, however, it is not clear to us the moment the Indians start taking losses that the Government and people of India are going to stand for it. So the contingent's willingness to fight will become irrelevant.
Another Con In The Making? The Lebanese Army has already reached its accommodation with Hezbollah. The Army is at least 40% Shia, by the way, so please understand we are not running down the Lebanese Army: accommodation has to be the order of the say. Hezbollah says it will not openly carry weapons; Lebanese Army says it will not go looking for Hezb weapons.
This is very touching and brings tears to our eyes. In practice, however, who is going to enforce the "no weapons display rule"? It cannot be the Lebanese Army because if it opens fire on Hezb, it could be triggering its own destruction - and the final destruction of Lebanon as a unified state.
So already we are living a lie, and it is possible that even if UNIFIL Plus gets the authority to open fire on Hezb first, most contingents will cheerfully ignore their orders - "Didnt see nuthin', hear nutin', say nutin' - or even be told "unofficially" to disregard armed Hezb fighters unless they are cozily setting up inside a UN post to open fire on Israel.
Balbeck Raid We knew, from our sources, the raid did not achieve its aims and the Israelis were lucky to get away without more casualties than they did. We did not know just how lucky: BBC has the story at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5268870.stm
Risk, however, is the name of the game in commando operations and we certainly cannot blame the Israelis for trying.
What does bother us a bit, however, is the report that the IDF unit was dressed in Lebanese Army uniforms. It was intercepted and questioned by Hezb fighters, who found the IDF unit's Arabic wanting, whereupon the shooting started. Haaretz quotes an Israeli as saying they were lucky 10 of them didn't get killed. The officer killed, by the way, was a lieutenant colonel.
Now, Hezb is obviously not going to follow Geneva, so on the one hand its easy to say, what does Israel gain from following Geneva? The prisoners it may leave in Hezb's hands will be treated no better or no worse than if they had been in IDF uniform, and in any case prisoners would be too valuable to Hezb to execute out of hand.
We also understand Hezb repeatedly used the ruse of Israeli uniforms to get close to IDF units.
This said, we still aren't happy, and we aren't sure exactly why.
Israeli Deployment From Haaretz: "The IDF's Nahal Brigade controls the Taibeh area, Armored Corps Brigade 188 has the area south of Nahal, Armored Corps Brigade 7 has claimed the Maroun al-Ras area, the Golani Brigade is deployed north of Bint Jbail and the Paratroops is in control of the western sector."
Lebanese Deployment HQ 10th Brigade with 3 battalions has taken over Syrian border. Debka.com gives HQ 6th Brigade at Naqura; 11th Brigade originally slated for Bint Jbail went to Tibnine to avoid Hezb positions/fighters at Bint Jbail; and 9th Brigade, which was to go into South Beirut instead shifted south toward the Chouf Mountains.
Afghanistan Fighting Coalition and Afghan forces killed 72 Taliban in one battle when 100 fighters engaged them 35-km from Kandahar. The count comes from the Afghans who lost 4 dead; they say it is a body count and they are searching for more bodies.
This comes right after 4 US and 1 British soldiers were killed in other fighting/ambushes.
Saddam's New Trial To Start This Week He along with 6 cohorts will be tried for the Anfal campaign of the 1980s. This was fought in North Iraq; most of victims were Kurds, and Iraq is said to have gassed villages

0230 GMT August 20, 2006

No Significance To Israeli Commando Raid The raid was not, as Israel coyly says, to disrupt transfer of weapons of Hezbollah. It was one in a continuing series of operations to try and capture one or more senior Hezb officials/commanders and use them as bargaining chips to get back the two Israeli soldiers.
The weapons transfer excuse was used because Israel gave itself permission before the ceasefire to disrupt weapons shipments without it being considered a ceasefire violation. And though many UN members were dubious about Israel's unilateral self-permission, except for a sloppy sea blockade no UN member wants to get involved in interdicting supplies from Syria. So Israel can turn around say, "what ho, you don't want us to interdict, you do it or shut up and let us do it."
Nonetheless, there is no significance to the operation. Our suggestion to readers would be to ignore the sound and fury emanating from the UN and Lebanon. Their reaction is natural. The Israeli effort to get negotiating chips is natural. This sort of thing will continue, particularly as Israel needs to restore its image as a powerful, decisive, successful military machine.
17 Russian Troops Conscripts Murdered, 120 Injured In 1st 6-months Of 2006 says Pravda. The problem of mistreatment of conscripts has been endemic in the Russian Army and before that in the Red Army. Frankly, we are unable to understand why the Russians are unable to get their act together on this issue. This is 2006, not 1906.

0230 GMT August 19, 2006

IsAF Flew 15500 Sorties, Hit 7500 Targets

And the result is what? Zip. Lebanon says less than 70 Hezb fighters were killed. Presumably it is not counting the auxiliaries. As we have been saying every day, Hezb is now openly parading up and down southern Lebanon whereas earlier they kept a low profile. Syria and Iran are resupplying Hezb by truck.

But The Fantasies Continue. Charles Krauthammer, a Washington Post columnist who we consider very level-headed on any subject except Israel, is insisting Hezb suffered heavy casualties. May we politely ask who told him that? US intelligence? US intel knows diddly squat about what happened with Hezb. The Israelis? The Israelis know a bit about what happened with Hezb - when they weren't busy going to earth to avoid Hezb fire, which seems to be just about all the time. Israel believes it killed 500 Hezb. How were these figures calculated? Were bodies counted and photographed? If not the count cannot be reliable. And if Israel killed, say, 4-5 auxiliaries for each fighter, that is no damage because the auxiliaries are just ordinary Hezb supporters. There are hundreds of thousands of able bodied men in the supporters group.
Ms. Rice, the US Secretary of State, is reduced to saying she hopes Hezb will see the error of its ways, and if it doesn't not disarm, then more countries will call it what it is, a terrorist organization. Excuse us, but does Hezb care what names you or I call it?
President Bush, who is either writing the script himself or is at the mercy of dysfunctional advisors again says Hezb was defeated and that in due time the people of Lebanon will come around to the US position and see Hezb has to go. Saying these things is really pathetic. The people of Lebanon are not interested in Washington's point of view. They are looking at billions in damage, the displacement of at least three-quarters of a million people, and the traumatization of the whole country, all because the US was encouraging Israel to go on fighting. Moreover, 40% of Lebanon is Shia. We hate to even speculate on what they think of Washington. Neither Mr. Bush nor his advisors have any explanation not just for Hezb's decision to now flaunt its power openly, but its massive organizational capacity - backed by Iranian cash - to quickly bring relief to the suffering Lebanese while the US and the official Lebanese government do diddly.
Meantime, Back At The UN Ranch Germany says it will not send ground troops. Debka says Turkey has also pulled out. Finland will send 250 troops - in November.
Malaysia is really helping its case for sending a battalion to UNIFIL Plus. As we had mentioned earlier, Israel wants no troops from Malaysia and Indonesia because these countries do not recognize Israel. Now Malaysia says it should not be up to Israel to say who contributes.
What the Malaysians need is a serious smacking upside their addled heads. Do they honestly believe they can deploy without Israeli agreement and their deployment is solely a matter between the UN and Lebanon? Are they looking for a fight with the Israelis? Because if they deploy without Israel's position, they will get one. And it will be no use their appealing to other UNIFIL contingents to come to their aid: everyone is making quite clear their troops are not going to be involved in any fighting with anyone.
If it isn't up to Israel to say yeh or neh, then why not send Syrian and Iranian troops to south Lebanon?
What is about this war that is driving everyone to irrationality in their statements? The only ones being cool are the Iranians: they are calmly saying they do not aid Hezb but welcome its victory.
Sri Lanka We have not been reporting the resumption of full-scale hostilities between the government and the LTTE. Partly this is because we were focusing on Lebanon, partly because the situation is just too depressing. The Sri Lankan Army has cut off the northern part of the island, that is where the LTTE is based. The Army is allowing limited supplies to be sent to areas under its control, but according to BBC, it is not allowing residents to flee. We are not clear why.
Darfur UN is deeply worried because the Sudan government is preparing a major offensive against the rebels. There is no sign of the expanded peacekeeping force which was supposed to bring "robust" - that overworked adjective - contingents including Euro troops to Darfur. Given happenings in Lebanon, Darfur is more or less a forgotten issue.
We don't see where the 17,000 new troops the US-UN want deployed are coming from. Moreover, Russia and China are opposed to further deployments.
Iraq In Iraq, US forces are bashing on. When they are on the scene, things stabilize. When they are withdrawn, things go to heck and beyond. That said, there is no sense in detailing the endless actions which result in 1, 2, 5 US troop deaths every day.
In Basra, two rival Shia militias are at loggerheads and a mini civil war is about to break out. The British are way too thin on the ground to do anything: it was the lack of sufficient troops and the laid back style of policing that has led to the current situation. The Brits want to go home and we sympathize with them, because the Iraq war makes no sense anymore except to the US administration, which is in such a state we doubt it makes sense to itself.
The Brits could react to our criticism by saying well, they could have been tough like the US, but that would have cost them unacceptable losses and the home front would have forced their withdrawal. They could also say that just like what is happening in US operating areas, the moment they scaled back, the same trouble we are seeing today would have broken out anyway. That being the case, why emulate the US and take huge casualties because in the end it is not going to work out. Should a Brit say this to us, we certainly would have no reply.
Corruption Costs Iraq $7.5 Billion in 2-years, according to an article forwarded to us by reader Marcopetroni. This is just another reason why things are not working out in Iraq and why the US civilian development side is completely fed up.
Iraq Ethnic Cleansing Continues with Shias forcing Sunnis out and Sunnis forcing Shias out. This is happening on an increasing scale even in Baghdad, where the US and Iraq presence is very strong. There is no sense to our saying anything more on this subject.

0230 GMT August 18, 2006

France Commits Only To 200 Troops For Lebanon - And We Think France Is Acting Sensibly given there is no agreement by Hezbollah to disarm. In fact, Hezb is openly strutting all over south Lebanon, something it did not do before the war.
France says not to jump to conclusions, there could be more troops. There will be no more troops because the material conditions will not change.
UN is feeling shattered because France was to be the anchor of UNIFIL Plus. Don't feel bad, UN, the whole thing was a fantasy anyway.
Bangladesh Loyally Offers Two Motorized Infantry Battalions It has built up its army specifically for UN missions. The western media can never resent snarky, slimy comments about how the Bangladesh government makes money sending troops to the UN, but that is hardly the reason Dacca is such a strong supporter of UN peacekeeping. The Bangladeshis genuinely believe in the mission, they welcome the increased attention it gets them on the world stage, and make the most of the opportunity for their troops to get overseas experience.
It is quite typical of some smaller countries - Nordland and Canada come to mind - that they are idealistic about peacekeeping and willing to put their money where their mouth is. This is not something US, UK, France etc. can be expected to understand.
If any comment has to be made on the Bangladesh offer, it is the troops are underequipped and their army has no logistic ability to support global deployments. There is a big overhead that has to be picked up by other countries. On the plus side, the two Bangali battalions will require less support than 100 US troops of 150 British troops or 200 French troops.
Israel Objects To Some Muslim Contingents Specifically those from Malaysia and Indonesia, and this too is perfectly sensible.
Meanwhile, Idiots In Power Continue To Speak Of The Lebanese Army as something quite independent from Hezbollah. Now, it is not polite of us to call a whole bunch of high officials and politicians idiots, but there is no help for it.
How many times do we have to explain that (a) Lebanon is composed of several ethnic groups with often-divergent and often-competing interests; (b) the Lebanese army is a microcosm of the society; (c) Shias constitute a substantial part of the Lebanese Army - we have no current figures but doubt it is less than 30%; (d) Any order to the Lebanese Army to act against Hezbollah will split the Army and destroy it; (e) When the Israelis could not handle Hezb, how in heaven's name is the Lebanese Army supposed to do it, assuming the Army is willing to fight in a civil war as a servant of America and Israel, right after its "masters" have destroyed Lebanon?
Oh Yes, Lets Not Forget Planned US "Aid" There are actually some people in Washington DC who believe a few tens of millions of dollars of equipment and spares and training will make the Lebanese Army effective enough to take on Hezb. Well, even if the above problems can be ignored, and they cannot, any package the US gives will not only be peanuts, it will also be perceived as an insult by Lebanese who hold the US responsible for the $1-2 billion worth of damage the US-Israel combination caused Lebanon
US should have immediately announced $500-million aid and immediately send troops and resources to start the process of rebuilding. These days, you can't expect Washington to commit proper resources for anything - with the exception of Starbucks and Walmart, private corporations that want to take over the world.
So what do we call these giant minds in Washington? You are welcome to call them what you want. We are very polite people, so we will limit ourselves to "morons".
And Lets Not Forget Syria because the minute US/France try expanding their influence with the Lebanese Army, Syria will push the other way and expand support to Hezb and other anti-west militias. Take a look at the map of the Mideast: Lebanon is Syria's front gate. Damascus is not about to let anti-Syrian powers become gatekeepers. As for the US "convincing" Syria its better to cooperate by threats of force, Washington should forget it. Washington's bluff on Syria has been called. The Iranians are waiting to see what the UN does in September on the N-issue before calling Washington's bluff.

0230 GMT August 17, 2006

More Snarfing, Sneering, and Snorfing This is getting tiresome: each time the editor sits down to enjoy a tasty, refreshing Diet Pepsi - 0 calories, artificial sweetener, carbonated water, some secret ingredient, and caffeine, for which your editor pays 40 cents a can in bulk (a metaphor for modern American life, if you need one) - more than half the drink is getting wasted as he tries to keep it down while reading the news and then starts laughing. Among the now daily absurdities concerning Lebanon-Israel:
Turkey Wants Another UN Resolution Clarifying Things before sending troops to Lebanon. That makes France, Turkey, and Italy - the 3 biggest potential contributors wanting clarifications of one side or the other.
Dear Ankara: we don't get paid so we don't know why we are wasting our time explaining things to you.
The US snookered you: the UN resolution and the side agreements you thought you were agreeing to were never the real agreements - or lack of them. You deserve no sympathy for the US sticking it to you - we remember only too well the double cross you pulled on the US in 2003. The difference being the US was already about to invade Iraq when you pulled your fast one and had to go ahead, whereas the US snooker was so stupid a 5-year old could have avoided the trap, and you certainly are quite cunning.
The real agreement is: you will put your troops in-between Israel and Hezbollah to help out Israel and the US. You will get hammered by both sides and suffer casualties. The US will utter soothing words about "Hezbollah must realize this and must realize this..." - about as rational as Germany and Japan telling the world after VE/VJ Day that the US must realize this and realize that. Note to self: write to US government patiently explaining Hezbollah is more concerned about the pimple on its nose than what the US wants and thinks. Back to Turkey: Aside from words, you will get no help from the US. If you need more clarifications, we'll be happy to provide them. No need to waste your time looking for clarifications from US/UN/Israel/Lebanon.
Hezbollah Sticks It To Washington and Tel Aviv Just yesterday we were being told Hezbollah would not surrender its weapons but would not display them. This was being seen by some as some sort of concession by Hezb.
This bit of inanity is out-of-date a day later: Hezbollah fighters are now out in the open all over south Lebanon, and they are armed.
Note to brilliant diplomatic minds globally: "Dear Dips, before the Lebanon war, Hezbollah very rarely appeared in public with weapons because it is a secretive organization: there are any number of cases where it now emerges even family members did not know their relatives were Hezb fighters. That Hezb is now openly carrying weapons shows just how much concern Hezb has for your opinion.
Lebanon Sticks It To US And US deserves it. While Israel was busy destroying Lebanon, US had nothing to say except "we will not impose deadlines on Israel." The US sacrificed Lebanon in its anti-Iran crusade. So US thinks that now Lebanon will cooperate with Washington in disarming Hezb? Grow up, Washington: you now harbor the largest collection of fools in the world.
Lebanon has not just said it will NOT, repeat NOT, repeat NOT - we have to say these things over and over again because Washington is a bit slow - disarm Hezb by force, it has now said that to remove Hezb from south Lebanon is to depopulate the south because the people of the south and Hezb are one. This is so obvious it beggers the imagination that Washington did not see it.
Washington In Its King Canute Mode Washington apparently still thinks it counts for something on the Mideast stage. It is busy issuing fatwas to everyone in the Middle East, and everyone is simply ignoring them.
Fighting Hezbollah: More Horrifying Details Emerge Readers had best read this article, forwarded by Marcopetroni, for themselves http://mosnews.com/news/2006/08/16/hizbullahchechens_.shtml The 3 adjectives that came immediately to our mind were horrifying, heartbreaking, and humiliating. Here are two excerpts:
Military sources said numerous Israeli combat units, without effective air or armor support, spent most of their time in Lebanon paralyzed by Hezbollah fire. They said hundreds of soldiers were often overwhelmed by as few as a dozen Hezbollah mortar and anti-tank gunners within sight of the Israeli border.
In several cases, Israeli commanders, citing Hezbollah squads, dismissed orders to advance. The military reported the detention of five Engineering Corps soldiers, including a reserve company commander, for refusing to embark on a mission in Lebanon.
Now, if you'd read between the lines of the reports in the Israeli press, the second excerpt will come as no surprise: there was widespread refusal to obey orders, and in many case the refusals were made with the concurrence of battalion commanders. Concerning the first, we knew the Israelis were having a tough time; but we had no clue it was that bad.
Please understand that if the same reservists and regulars had faced 5000 Syrian armored fighting vehicles descending on them, they would have fought to the last tank and last round. But in Lebanon, once their nose was bloodied, they simply decided that the kidnapping of two soldiers and the killing of six more in the ambush that started it all was not a threat to the existence of Israel.
And who is to say they were wrong? Not us, for sure.

We misspelled Mr. Luke Graysmith's name yesterday [Letters]. We are always confused between the American and English spelling of "grey" versus "gray". Apologies, and many of them.

Israeli Army Flees Lebanon No, this is not Al-Jazerra or IRNA speaking, this is Orbat.com speaking. What else does one call it when:

Israel is withdrawing as fast as possible from all

southern Lebanon before there is any sign of UN troops beyond the ones already present, before the Lebanese Army has arrived, and most of all, Hezbollah has not conceded a single point: it has refused to hand back the Israeli hostages, it has refused to disarm, it has refused to promise it will not attack Israel again.

Just think how wonderful this is: Hezbollah is already being resupplied and reinforced - by truck - and Israel says it will not interfere because the trucks are not directly threatening its positions and soldiers. This is not some secret intelligence report - though we did see it two days ago - this is in the Washington Post. And what positions and soldiers anyway, since one Israeli position after another is being evacuated at top speed.

Israel says its priority is to release reservists.

OK, So We Wanted An End To The War But Why Is Israel Humiliating Itself? We wanted Israel to ceasefire because

Its attacks on civilians were getting completely out of control - the Israelis were smashing and burning everything in sight from petty fury; and neither its tactics nor its strategy was working.

This does not mean we wanted to see a race between Israeli units to see who can "withdraw" faster and a complete abandonment of any Israeli condition stated before the ceasefire.

Has Israel Gone Bonkers? If So, US Needs To Cut And Run Too We went on and on about Israeli stupidity about the assumptions/conduct of the war. Of course, we'd heard the rumors that Israel was going to strike anyway this year. But we refused to believe other stuff that we'd heard, that this was a joint US-Israeli operation. We didn't think the US could be that stupid.

This is the sorry fate of prophets: wrong on all counts. Mr. Bush with his cohort Mr. Olmert again abused our trust - and America's trust - in his administration and again made fools of us. When will Orbat.com ever learn?

But what Israel is doing now is not displaying arrogance in its assumed capabilities, it is committing suicide. The US needs to cut and run from Israel before this gets any worse. Much better to make Teheran the US partner in the Mideast than Israel - the Iranians at least are rational.

Needless to say, the wonderful bunch of people that advises Mr. Bush and shapes US policy is likely to make darn sure the US commits suicide along with Israel. But why take the rest of us with you, Washington folks? You want to die, why don't you all throw yourselves en masse lemming-like in front of a 100 x 100-ton-car coal train? The Editor knows just the spot for you, too. And we'll do our best not to miss you.

Oh Yes, Now Israel Says Talks With Syria A Possibility This is in Jerusalem Post. The defense minister said it: "The conflict with Hizbullah may have created a new opportunity for renewed dialogue with the Palestinians, and potentially also with Syria, Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Tuesday afternoon."

The leader of the Israeli opposition party Israel Beiteinu, chairman Avigdor Lieberman "said that Peretz was suffering from a failure to acknowledge reality."

These Israelis are just far too polite. Our reaction was: "Code Red! Heavily delusional Olmert Cabinet Official has broken out of the looney bin! All the little men in white coats are ordered to emergency stations! This official must be recaptured immediately, before he starts a war with Iran, loses it, and says the defeat has led to new opportunities to talk to Teheran."

0230 GMT August 15, 2006

Israel-Lebanon 2006 We are not going to bother reporting either the silly victory claims of Prime Olmert and President Bush, and nor are we going to get into the recriminations that are already starting in Israel and will start in the US. We have analyzed this subject to death; our recriminations have been recriminated many times over already.
UNIFIL Plus France has a 2000 troop contingent in Lebanon to evacuate EU and other people and hopes to deploy it in the south within 10 days - we say this with accompaniment from Bob Dylan singing "When will they ever learn?". Not to belabor the obvious, but the above should be changed to" France has a 2000 troop contingent in Lebanon to "evacuate" people..." wink-wink-wink. Had Hezb staged a coup in Beirut we may have learned the French were there for other reasons. Consider the US has evacuated people of interest without 2000 troops just hanging around in Lebanon.
Italian government is facing a controversy over the proposed 3000 troop deployment: opposition is saying they want clearly defined rules of engagement because the current rules are confusing.
Orbat.com is feel terribly put upon by the Italians. Why is we have to explain these things to everyone when we don't even get paid? The rules are not confusing, they are very clear: UNIFIL is to help the Lebanese government disarm Hezb - is that UNR 1559, we forget? Lebanese government is not going to disarm Hezb. It will not be asking UNIFIL for help. Any attempt UNIFIL makes to disarm anyone is beyond its mandate and it will get hammered by Hezb. And any time the Israelis, with their massively exaggerated sense of self-importance and we-have-been-wronged-so-we-are-going-to-punch-you feel UNIFIL is getting in the way, they too will attack UNIFIL.
Hezbollah Begins Rehabilitation Work OK, this is why the Lebanese will not turn against Hezb - even now. While Lebanese Government runs around like a headless chicken, on the day of the ceasefire Hezb announces it will pay 15,000 families whose houses were totally destroyed compensation - rent for one year and payment for furniture - and it will other people to repair their homes. Report is from Jang of Pakistan.
Letter From Luke Greysmith [With reference to our comment that the real loser in the Lebanon War 2006 is the US] On the contrary: The UN, not the US, was the big loser (again). Big surprise there. We just look like we're proud of our fighting cock. Now the Israeli’s have won a propaganda victory that provides them the liberty to operate at will. The next stage will be the reckoning for IDF and Hezbollah + ?.

0230 GMT August 14, 2006

Snicker, Snarf Snort Pardon us, the editor was laughing so hard his Diet Pepsi went up his nose. This is the situation re UN 1701:
The countries going into expanded UNIFIL have said they are not going to fight Hezbollah. All sides have to agree that Hezbollah will lay down arms and Mega UNIFIL - or as the Indians would say, Maha UNIFIL - will help the Lebanon Army to help Hezb to lay down arms.
The Lebanese cabinet meeting to accept the ceasefire was postponed because Hezb told the cabinet they were not going to hand over their arms to anyone.
Any number of Israeli sources have made clear Israel will interpret the ceasefire in the loosest of terms and will be ready to attack in the event of any provocation - Israel will define what constitutes a provocation and what is the appropriate response.
We save the best for last: Hezb says it will not ceasefire as long as Israeli troops remain in Lebanon
US Is The Big Loser Israel, of course, has lost this one and the Arabs are openly saying they now see hope for the demise of Israel. They feel they finally have the right weapon. Well, if you are of the "Israel has a right to exist" school, which we are, this is terrible news.
But Israel is only one of 20-30-40 Arab/Mideast nations the US deals with, and one of 200 countries around the world the US deals with. Though no one says it openly, there is an understanding that should the existence of Israel become unviable, a second Israel will rise - most likely in the US. In other words, the US will not let Israel be extinguished. But US does not have such a terminal commitment to Israel-in-the-Middle-East that it would be willing to risk serious pain. We'll talk about this another time if this idea is a new one to our readers.
The US has neatly shot itself not in the foot, but in that sensitive spot, damage to which causes one to start singing soprano in the choir. The magnitude of the US defeat in the Mideast is so staggering and so unexpected that it will take months for the realization to dawn fully - but readers, please believe us when we say the realization is already dawning across the board among the American power elite.
You Think The Israelis Have a Fiasco? We'll Show You A Fiasco Report from Defense News, a leading US military industry trade publication:
A visit to the base this week found four of the navy’s five patrol boats berthed because of a fuel shortage, while Thamir said just 10 of the 24 FABs and one of the 10 rigid inflatable boats were operational.
The base is Umm Qasr, homeport of the Iraqi Navy. An FAB is a fast aluminum boat.
This is the end product of three years of American, British, and allied efforts to build the Iraqi Navy. This what hundreds of millions of dollars of American taxpayer money have got the American people in return. We aren't even going to mention the reconstruction of Iraq effort, where billions of dollars have gone and every major program is in complete disarray, with the US finding it cannot wash its hands of this disaster fast enough.
All this is a result of grand incompetence on the part of the US government. The Americans have become like the Israelis: when it comes to killing, no one does it better than the Americans. When it comes to doing anything constructive, America is no longer capable of undertaking the simplest tasks. America has not been able to deal with one natural disaster, Katrina, and the people of New Orleans are neither trying to kill everyone nor planting roadside bombs nor massacring civilians. What can it do for Iraq?
We need to get out Iraq because the people who run America are incompetent.
The only question Orbat.com's readers should be asking themselves: are we going to sit here and watch our venal power elite run this great country into the ground, or are we going to stand up and fight, not Al Qaeda or Hezbollah or Al Sadr, but the venal power elite

1830 GMT August 13, 2006

Rockets: OK, Folks, We Surrender We really thought the drop in rockets launched meant that Israel was succeeding against this threat. After all, IDF is at the Litani River, 30,000 troops are in Lebanon - at least it is said - and presumably Hezb has its hands full.
So the result is? Today 250 rockets were launched at Israel, including long-range ones - you know, the ones the launchers for which IDF claims it knocks off several a day?
So we have to give up. We have explanations, y'all take your pick and please do send us yours if you wish.
1. Hezb has more rocket crews, rockets, and longer-range launchers than even the worst-case estimates.
2. Having got the measure of the "full-scale" - please excuse us while we stop laughing - IDF invasion, Hezb is back to its Bang Bang Maxwell ways.
3. Hezb carefully husbanded its remaining resources to make a big splash on Sunday; the number of rockets will fall off again.
4. The rockets, crews, launchers for the short-range variety are hidden in deep bunkers/tunnels. IDF doesn't know where most of the bunkers/tunnels are, and even when it does, it waits for airpower to do the attacking, instead of doing it the horribly risky and dirty way that gives success: send infantry and accept the casualties, as the US found it had to do in Vietnam.
5. Your explanation here.
Meanwhile, this is what passes for objectivity in Jerusalem Post: "Despite the declaration of a cease-fire, Hizbullah appears to have stepped up its rocket attacks..." Etc.
Well, lets see. The ceasefire comes into effect Monday; Israel has said it will continue all neccessary operations till the UN force arrives . The first troops, from standby earmarked units, could start arriving in 10-15 days, and it could take 6 months for the full force of 15,000 to deploy. So Israel really has given itself a 6 month deadline, at least, and the ceasefire can go do what it wants. Further, Israel has said it reserves the right to defend itself, so basically there is no ceasefire except as Israel defines, even after 6 months.
Lets see further: Israel attacks Lebanon mainly through the night and there was no air ceasefire by Israel on the night of Saturday/Sunday. Hezb launches its rockets during the day. So it could be said Hezb is merely retaliating against the usual IsAF attacks.
So What Is Our Point? Media has to be rigorously fair. That does not mean saying there is moral equivalency. You can be completely opposed to Hezb - and we are - without saying everything Israel is doing is right. JPost has to present the Israeli side, it is right and patriotic to so do. That does not mean it has to distort facts and realities.

0500 GMT August 13, 2006

Saturday's IDF Toll 24 KIA This includes 5 crew of the helicopter which fell in enemy territory after it was shot down. As nearly as we can make out 12 men were killed when their tanks were hit by ATGMs - four incidents, and 3 were killed in infantry fighting. Plus two killed in an accident when a reversing tank ran over them that accounts for 17 of the 19 ground troops. another 70 troops have been wounded, many severely. As far as we know Israel has not been releasing DOW figures.
Again, we suggest readers not see too much into the figures because the number of troops in Lebanon has jumped. Also, because the Israeli Army has to move fast now, and no more fighting for a few hours and then withdrawing to safety south of the border, it is much more exposed.
At the same time, we have to express admiration for Hezb. Standing up to a furious air offensive and tanks en masse is very hard.
We are very sorry for the families of the Israeli soldiers killed. We feel no such sorrow for Hezb fighters: they are the enemy. But every time we feel bad for the IDF, we are forced to confront the harsh reality that Israel has mercilessly attacked Lebanese civilians not just to destroy auxiliaries who back up Hezb, but to terrorize the Lebanese to force them to turn against Hezb.
Hezb Resupply Continues from Syria says IDF. Forget the donkeys, the stuff is coming in by truck. We've said repeatedly the IsAF does not have the means for this kind of interdiction even given the small area involved.
IDF Says Iranian Revolutionary Fighters' Bodies Discovered It says there are no identifying documents, but there are tattoos which suggest the Guards are fighting with Hezb. "Several dozen" Guards have been sent. Well, we don't know about the several dozen business. We believe by now at least 200 have been sent - though of course we have no clue how many are in the south.
Step 1: keep in mind Israelis are masters of intelligence misinformation. Remember Saddam, Gulf II, and WMD? Brought to you courtesy of Tel Aviv. What better way to keep the US sweet than to say Iranians are fighting in Lebanon?
Step 2: keep in mind this is completely logical, even if you want to disregard our information. Flying Revolutionary Guards to Damascus and getting them across the border is child's play. It would seem critical for Iran to support Hezb at this juncture. If Hezb in any way feels Iran has cut them loose when the going got tough, this could create major complications for Teheran. In any case, why would Iran NOT want to support its won creation? Valuable battle experience, a big poke in the eye of the Great Satan, not so gentle reminder to west "you think you're going to punish us for our N-program? We're going to punish you, not the other way around."
Step 3: if Iran is sending in the Revolutionary Guards, Israel is absolutely right to look for a way out of the mess. But we will still blame the Israelis for being stupid as potted palms because any idiot could have predicted the arrival of the Guards. This all should have been thought through. Of course, when it comes to Arabs/Iranians, Israelis are so attention deficit you have only to get one Arab to pop up and go "neena neena neena" and the Israelis go mad with rage and start doing all kinds of absurd things. They have gotten away with in the past. Hezb and the Revolutionary Guards are a different kettle of fish - not so tasty, eh, Mr. Olmert?

0230 GMT August 13, 2006

Saturday 11 IDF Soldiers Killed including two in an accident. The toll does not include that incurred when a helicopter which we believe is a CH-53 was shot down by Hezbollah. The organization claims it used a new missile - it is unclear to us if it was a SAM or an ATGM.
Fortunately, the CH-53 had just landed its load of troops. The CH-53 commonly carries up to 60 troops and loosing one in the air can be catastrophic. No one in their right mind uses the CH-53 the way IDF used theirs, which was to land a large force behind Hezbollah "lines" - more fantasies here; but as always the IDF was overconfident. Thanks to great luck only the crew and possibly a few other troops are casualties.
Word to the IDF: Can you stop saying things like "there were no combat troops aboard?". Makes you all sound like blithering idiots. First, a soldier is a soldier and a life is a life, regardless of if the man belongs to a combat arm. Second, you may not belong to a combat arm, but the minute you are in the middle of a fight and people are trying to kill you, you become a combat soldier. IDF's inane statements are demeaning in the extreme to its soldiers: thsi is the second time we've seen the phrase used.
The Significance Of The Increased Casualties Is Zero There are many more IDF running around in Hezb territory so more are going to get killed.
Ooooh IDF, You Are So Brave, May We Feel Your Muscles? IDF says it has tripled the number of troops in Lebanon. Swoon.
Seeing as there were less than 5000 at a time in Lebanon to begin with, are we supposed to be impressed you now have 15,000? Give us a break, someone.
Face it, guys, you are a bunch of jokers. You can blame your Prime Minister all you want, but you are just as much to blame for the Lebanon fiasco. By the way, don't think you're going to get away blaming your Chief of Staff. Okay, so he's a little intelligence challenged, but then he's a fighter pilot in charge of the land forces so what do you expect. IDF ground commanders, you messed up before the war, you messed up during the war. Be officers of honor and acknowledge that.
Jerusalem Post On The Ceasefire http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525859901&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Says the same things we have been saying since this excuse for a war started over a month ago. Read it and weep if you are an American, because US has just been kicked - again - in the pants so hard that it is numb and doesn't even know it will not be walking straight for a good long time in this region of the world. There is no one to blame but the US government - this fiasco is not the making of Mr. Bush alone.
We are sick of the poltroons who run this country's foreign policy. They seem all to be badly in need of Ritalin.
Meanwhile, Back In The UK CNN quotes a lawyer for 2 of the suspects detained in the new airliner bomb plot as saying they are "upset".
The bad, bad, bad British cops pushed one of them and used a term of racial abuse. They are so upset they were crying, says the lawyer. We ourselves are crying so hard we can barely write this. Then those bad bad bad cops wouldn't give them food and water for 26 hours. Boo hoo hoo. And their cells are cold and they haven't been given blankets. Triple boo hoo hoo.
Gad, those British cops are worse than the old Gestapo and KGB. They would have given you blankets all right: one each to wrap your dead bodies.
News for our British chummies: lucky for you the American cops aren't the ones who caught you. And you are just incredibly lucky it wasn't the CIA who caught you. CIA is so polite you wouldn't have even had to ask for water: they'd have given you more than you ever wanted.

1430 GMT August 12, 2006

Summary Update

Israel Reaches Litani, Continues Offensive as expected. several major fights took place, with Israel losing 5 killed and 60 wounded. Two more soldiers were killed in an accident.
Yesterday 150 rockets were launched. Our assessment is 4 division HQs and at least 12 brigade HQs are involved in the overall war. We expect the number of rockets to fall as IDF advances to Litani and perhaps beyond; nonetheless, we are surprised this late in the game the number is still well above 30-50 - which Israel now says it what it hopes to achieve.
Ceasefire Expected At 7 AM Tel Aviv Time Monday but Orbat.com readers can expect plenty of fighting after that.
Massive Israeli Anger At Handling Of The War Because we cannot read Hebrew and have access only to E-editions of the Israeli press, and because IDF has heavily restricted media access to front-line units plus has imposed tough censorship rules, Orbat.com has been behind the curve in the matter of how Israelis view the war.
There is a huge anger at the ill-preparedness of reserve units. For example, one elite tank brigade earlier slated to deactivate - Israel is cutting two armored divisions as part of its post Gulf II realignment - has not exercised since fall 2004. True the impending deactivation may have contributed to slackness; nonetheless, the brigade was holding a key sector of the Syrian front. There are any number of reports the reservists lack essentials such as flak jackets, night-scopes, even first-aid stores. Another example: a reserve armored engineer unit was issued older combat engineer vehicles on which it had not trained.
Politically, the prime minister is in serious trouble. Our anticipation is that despite the seismic cracks that are appearing in the Israeli polity, it is still holding together because of the crisis, but once the stand-down starts, there will be heck and more to pay at home. The irony is that at least some Israelis understand that a bigger land force would have led to a bigger disaster - we have been saying for some time the IDF was completely unprepared for this war and this enemy.
One Israeli Poll Shows Only 20% Believe Israel Is Winning The Washington Post, from where we got this figure, correctly notes poll results vary, but this is staggering. Most of the remainder say neither side is winning, about 30% say Israel is losing. Which militarily is the case.
US Clutches At Straws The pathetic state of American policy is revealed in a US source saying that Hezbollah's two ministers in the Lebanese cabinet did not oppose the ceasefire and this is taken as evidence Hezb will not oppose the ceasefire.
There are so many absurdities in this formulation that we'd need a book for a detailed critique. Suffice it to say that obviously Hezb will not oppose a ceasefire: it was no part of Hezb's plan to be in a general war with Israel. They thought they'd snatch 2 Israelis - just as the Israelis have snatched thousands of Lebanese - and negotiate a prisoner exchange. Hezb had come out the winner in its asymmetrical war with the much-touted IDF and - this is important - the people of Lebanon are really suffering under the Israeli air offensive. Hezb is on top of its game and a ceasefire now is perfect.
But none of this means in the slightest that Hezb has or will agree to disarm! It will use the ceasefire to expand and rearm while attacking UN troops who get in its way and creating as much low-cost mayhem against Israel as it can to keep forcing Israel into over-reactions.
Subsequent to our writing the above Hezbollah announced it will accept a ceasefire.