0230 GMT June 30, 2006

• Israel Pauses 2nd Prong Of Invasion to give Egypt a chance to negotiate release of the kidnapped soldier. This offensive is slated for Northern Gaza. Egypt says Hamas has agreed to release the hostage; nonetheless, given Hamas consists of several factions, it remains unclear if this promise can be delivered on, particularly if it means Hamas has to fight Hamas.

• Hamas Government Near Decapitation as 8 of 23 ministers are now in Israeli custody along with upwards of 60 members of parliament, many from Hamas. Readers should be clear there are two different issues here. One, Israel has been planning for some time to eliminate the Hamas government because of the Kassam rocket attacks. The taking of the hostage may have forced Israel's hand sooner than planned, but despite Israel saying it may consider release of arrested lawmakers in exchange for the hostage, it is very clear the exchange does not apply to most of the Hamas lawmakers.

• For one thing, they have been given over to Shin Bet, the Israeli intelligence agency, and preparations are underway to try them in military courts for terrorism against Israel.

• Meanwhile, The Spirit of the 3 Stooges Is Well and Alive First, the Palestinians manage to rocket one of their own transformers, further depriving Gaza of power - the Israelis have already knocked out half the power in Gaza.

• Next, the blithering idiots who are part of Hamas and its affiliates say they have fired a rocket with a chemical warhead at Israel. Reader Dale Atkins brought the breaking news to our attention early yesterday.

• So, while Orbat.com was pondering what the Israeli retaliation would be, the Israelis announced their retaliation: public humiliation of Hamas, because - says Israel - there is no evidence any rocket was launched where Hamas says it was, leave alone one with a chemical warhead.

• US Supreme Court Says Gitmo Military Tribunals Illegal and thus destroys the legal foundation of the prison and also gives President Bush's legal strategy a huge - and crippling - kick in the rear end. Either the US takes the real terrorists in its custody out to sea and drops them overboard, or it sets them free, or it brings them to the US for trial. Your editor, as a US taxpayer, strenuously objects to the prospect of tens of millions of dollars being spent on trials for the real terrorists. The US legal system as it works today is primarily intended to spare the innocent wrongly accused, not to convict the guilty. If America does not have the moral courage to execute these men without trial, then let them go to continue their attacks on America - the country deserves nothing better.

• We again recall the point reader Walter E. Wallis made: it was a huge, huge, huge mistake for Mr. Bush to make the Terror War into some kind of law-and-order problem. This is not a civil disturbance, this is war. Non-Geneva prisoners are entitled to no considerations of any sort. That is international law, if anyone wants to talk about law.

• A bigger mess we cannot imagine - even though our Washington sources warned us weeks ago the Supreme Court was going to gut the Administration's legal strategy. President Bush, surprisingly, is taking all these setbacks quite placidly and politely - at least in public.

0230 GMT June 29, 2006

• [1330 GMT] Israeli forces continued their attack into Gaza, using all 3 military services. CNN says the Israelis believe their missing soldier is being held in the Khan Yunis refugee camp.

• Meanwhile, the Israelis have arrested more Hamas lawmakers: in the bag are 4 ministers and 4 members of parliament. Along with another 56 suspects arrested, they are believed by Israel to be involved in terrorist activities.

• Though the Israelis deny it, obviously they are creating hostages to inhibit the kidnappers from killing the soldier. The unknown - to us - here is how much the Hamas leadership in Syria, which is responsible for the kidnapping, cares about the detained persons.

• Another Israeli aim would be bargaining chips to use in getting their soldier back. The kidnappers had demanded the release of 430+ Palestinians in exchange, mostly women and children. Now they have no leverage because so many of their own people are in Israeli custody.

• Militants blew a hole in the barrier wall, but Palestine police prevented people from crossing into Israeli territory. On the other side, which is part of the sector patrolled by the Egyptians in cooperation with Israel, Egyptian soldiers backed up the Palestine police.

• Meanwhile, a young settler who had been kidnapped earlier has been found dead.

• Israel Pushes Into Gaza and arrests a Hamas minister. A power station supplying half of  Gaza has been blown. Israeli aircraft overflew President Assad's home while he was in residence, and Israel has announced it is seeking to kill the Syria based leader of the Hamas faction responsible for kidnapping its soldier.

• No casualties reported as of the time of our update.

• Syria says it forced Israeli fighters to leave its air space. We wonder what the Syrians are smoking, looks like its the good stuff.

• Meanwhile the 3 groups who claim responsibility for the kidnapping continue their bleating about killing the hostage unless Israel stops.

• Putin Orders Russian SF To Eliminate Killers Of His Diplomats in Iraq. No details are available. The Russians being the Russians, do not be surprised if a lot of other people get killed as well. There's no New York Times to reveal all. We honestly can't say we feel bad for the people who are going to get killed. The Russians are not running a court of justice where death is awarded only if a case is beyond reasonable doubt. This is a war, and in war people get killed on suspicion, or even if they are in the wrong place.

• Iraq Says It Captures Samarra Bombing Suspect This gentleman is Tunisian. Along with about 15 other insurgents he attacked an Iraqi Army post. He was wounded and captured and then confessed all. By an amazing coincidence, he was the only survivor of the raid: all the others died.

• While its not impossible the Iraqis are telling the truth, readers should keep in mind that the suspect was allowed to live because he could provide information, and the others who survived were killed. That's the way things should be done if you want to win an insurgency.

• Eleven Sunni Insurgent Groups Offer Conditional Ceasefire These groups operate in Diyala and Salauddin Provinces. Their condition is Iraq-US withdraw all foreign troops within two years.

• Sounds like a fair deal to us, if there is anything more to it than just talk.

• Ethiopia Denounces New Islamic Courts Chief saying he is the leader of an Islamic terrorist group which has been responsible for several attacks on Ethiopia and which tried to overthrow the government of Puntland before it was chased out by the Ethiopians. Puntland is an autonomous region of Somalia that does not claim independence. It is the home of the interim president who has made sure there are no warlords and that government is reasonable efficient.

• The gentleman in question says he has nothing to do with the group anymore, and that he is no terrorist - but if you want to call him a terrorist because he believes in Islam, that's fine with him.

• Hello, anyone home in this man's head? He's being called a terrorist because he is one, not because he believes in Islam. The very great majority of Muslims fervently believe in their religion but have nothing to do with terrorism.

• British MOD Accepts Rumsfeld Doctrine At least it would seem so: its 5,000 troop contingent in Afghanistan has exactly one infantry battalion. Okay, British Ministry of Defense: into the corner with your dunce caps, detention after school, when you will write on the board 1000 times: "We need boots on the ground".

• Montenegro becomes 192nd UN Member

• 5.56mm Round Not Doing Its Job Reader Mike Thompson forwards discussion on the issue. Apparently the round is simply going right through the skinny Iraqis without slowing them down. The 9mm handgun is being equally panned. It is being said the old 7.62mm round could stop anyone, and had great anti-material capabilities. For example, it can go through engine blocks, a nice feature if you want to stop a vehicle heading for you.

• As for the handgun, it is a bit amazing that the US Army, which has very long experience with the .45 caliber handgun, shifted over to a 9mm. We are sure there must be 25 - at least - carefully considered reasons, none of which has the slightest relevance to reality.

0230 GMT June 28, 2006

• Israel Invades Gaza to recover its kidnapped soldier. Three bridges were blown to prevent the kidnappers from escaping with the hostage; a transformer was also blown, cutting powers to some areas of Gaza.

• Israel has also taken the opportunity to attack areas from which Kassams are being launched.

• The kidnappers say they will kill the hostage if the Israelis don't withdraw. If they are serious, they may as well write their wills and put their affairs in order: the Israelis are not going to withdraw, and if their man is killed they will kill everyone remotely connected with the kidnapping. Come to think of it, they are probably going to do that anyway.

• Hamas, Fatah Agree On Israeli Recognition So who says sanctions don't work? Not us, after witnessing the swift capitulation of Hamas under economic sanctions imposed by aid donors. Good job, US and the Euros. Of course, mere recognition doesn't mean much, but its a critical step toward eventual peace, if any is possible.

• Clashes South of Mogadishu as Islamic Courts seeks to eliminate a warlord who has been holding out.

• Meanwhile, the Islamic Courts plan to execute 5 convicted rapists by stoning. Your editor wants to make clear he personally has nothing against this mode of execution for rapists. The problem is that the Islamic Courts will inevitably also stone women to death for adultery, real or imagined; inevitably, as happens under sharia law, women who have been raped are also going to get stoned to death depending on the whims and fancies of the local mullah who can declare them complicit in the act.

• Sharia law, on its own merits, carried out with strict impartiality by trained and experienced clerics has many advantages over western law. The problem is not the law, but the clerics and the hugely varied interpretations of sharia and the Koran.

• You Are Looking At The Most Lethal Weapon In the Swedish Army

• 

• Sweden has effectively disarmed: our Swedish Army expert Adrian J. English has been telling us this, but till we sat down yesterday to update the Sweden entry in Concise World Armies 2007, we didn't really put Mr. English's information in context.

• Anyway, we approvingly note the spit-and-polish, fierce military bearing of the soldierly pooch above. No hairnets and beards for this recruit. He is quiveringly keen and ready to go.

• The photo is from the army's official website http://www.mil.se/?lang=E

• Chad Rebels Attack Central African Republic CAR government says 5 government soldiers including men belonging to a central African peacekeeping force were killed along with 71 rebels.

• It seems as if the Chad rebels are cooperating with CAR rebels and both are seeking to extend a defacto no go zone to keep out government forces. BBC says large parts of the two countries and Sudan are devoid of government control; armed groups run the territories.

0230 GMT June 27, 2006

• US Army To Reinforce Japan ABM Defenses by sending 3 or 4 PAC 3 batteries to Okinawa and possibly other bases. We're wondering if there is a China subset in this decision rather the obvious conclusion we all jump to, that it has to do with DPRK. Just a thought.

• Request to Mr. Putin Can you stop worrying about the US ABM system, please? It has nothing whatsoever to do with you. It is, and will remain for at least 20 years more, a system intended to cope with small numbers of missiles from PRC, DPRK, Iran, and the like. There is no need to go ballistic - pun intended - on the US deployment and act as if it is an anti-Russian act. No one is interested in how Russia will overcome the system and in Russian boasts about new weapons with new capabilities that the system cannot counter. There is no need for any new weapons, because the US ABM system will not be able to handle even a tiny fraction of a Russian strike. Believe it or not, the US has other things to worry about than Russia. It isn't all about you, sir.

• Meanwhile, how about jettisoning your hostility to the US in Iraq and joining with the US? You have never given the Arabs any offense, and in particular on Iraq Russia has always opposed US action - bar 1990, which was a different matter. That did not stop Arab terrorists from killing 4 of your diplomats - because of Chechnya, they said, but it is because you refused to pay ransom - and quite rightly so. Like it or not, you are part of the west on the issue of Islamic fundamentalism.

• Argentina Reasserts Claims To Falklands Okay, so everyone knows its because the president wants to win more votes. But this is a dangerous game. The people of the Falklands don't want to be taken over by Argentina. These days its near impossible to justify the kind of intervention Argentina made in 1982.

• In any case, why does Argentina want to be thrashed again? The gap between UK and Argentine military capabilities has only grown in the last 2 decades.

• Argentina was once, before World War 2,  part of the first world: it was a wealthy, developed country, perhaps the only such in the 3rd world. Argentina's leaders would spend their time more usefully if they sought to restore Argentina to that status instead of talking about the Falklands.

• North West Frontier Province: More Trouble A day after militants in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas agreed to a ceasefire with government forces, a suicide bomber killed seven army and Frontier Corps troops.

• Now even the pro-government press concedes what people like Bill Roggio have been saying for months: big swaths of the area are going under the fundamentalists.

• Pakistan is becoming a major headache for the US and the West in general. The US plan was to keep some semblance of control on Pakistan while leaving basic issues to be tackled later, after Afghanistan , Iraq, and higher priority areas were stabilized. Like it or not, the cows have come home to roost earlier than the US/West expected and it is no longer possible to trade off some cooperation from Pakistan against refusing to undertake the gigantic task of cleaning up the country. The job is going to make Iraq look like a Winnie the Pooh picnic. Longer the US/West put off the job, the harder things are going to become.

• Law of Unintended Consequences: India, after bumbling along for years in Kashmir finally activated a winning formula that crushed the insurgency, and that made insurgent attempts to infiltrate Indian Kashmir a sure path to the heavenly virgins. Pakistan ISI and its allies have been defeated by the Indians. This is one reason - admittedly only one - that the fundamentalists are turning their attention to Afghanistan.

• Israel Locks Down Gaza and Masses For Gaza to recover its kidnapped soldier. Meanwhile, 3 Kassams were fired at the Israeli settlement of Sderot, wounding some settlers and knocking out power when one missile hit an electricity pole. Entry and exit from Gaza has been closed.

• Israel has said it will enter no negotiations for release of the soldier: he should either be released unconditionally or the terrorists should be prepared to suffer the consequences no matter where they may be, says Israel.

• Something We Know You Were Not Wondering About How did Nicole Kidman get to marry in a Catholic Church seeing as she is divorced from Tom Cruise? No annulment was issued, making this a bigger mystery. Simple explanation says BBC: her previous marriage to Mr. Cruise took place under the rites of the Church of Scientology, to which Mr. Cruise belongs. The Catholic church does not recognize the Church of Scientology for reasons too obvious to go into. So according to her church, Ms. Kidman was never married. The divorce was a legal, not a religious, affair.

• One reason your editor admires the Catholic Church is that it is the only non-Indian institution in the world that comes close to the Indian ability to rationalize anything. But Rome need not get overly excited: we doubt the Indians will ever be overtaken in this rather amusing, but utterly pointless and ultimately self-defeating ability.

• At any rate, we wish Ms. Kidman and her new husband the best.

0230 GMT June 26, 2006

• Somalia: That Didn't Take Long AP reports that an Islamic fundamentalist has taken over the Islamic Courts Union, now renamed the Conservative Council of Islamic Courts. We assume the name change has been made just to make sure everyone gets the point.

• As usual with the media, the debate has begun whether the new leader is affiliated with Al Qaeda. US says he is, he says he is not. But that is not the point: no one cares if he is affiliated with AQ, and the US in particular needs to stop tying every blip, blap, and blop to AQ. Its quite possible to be to the right of AQ without having any contact with that corporation. The point is the man is a fundamentalist. He and his followers have to be taken out, regardless of what their spoken words are, because his vision for the world runs contrary to universal human rights.  That is not a complicated concept, and we do hope the people who make decisions understand it is not a complicated concept.

• Afghanistan: Good Guys 45, Bad Guys 2 150 insurgents have died in the last 4 days. In one battle, two coalition soldiers were killed in exchange for 45 insurgents.

• Reuters style of reporting: "The Taliban were not available for comment." Hey, Reuters, good thing you weren't able to use this style of reporting in World War 2. Good thing for you is what we mean, because you'd have been lynched.

• Unconventional Warheads for Kassams Remember the Hamas mayor of the town from where Kassams are being launched saying there was no intention of killing anyone, the Kassams were just to protest the occupation?

• Well, now he and his cohorts have a new way of protesting the occupation: an extremist group claims it has chemical and biological warheads for the Kassams.

• Orbat.com request to the terror group: please, please, pretty please use your new warheads. That will give Israel and the west carte blanche to wipe you off the face of the earth.

• Malaysia Continues Demolishing Hindu Temples as it clears areas to be redeveloped. Reader marcopetroni tells us this has been happening for years but suggests it may be getting worse with the rise of Islamic fundamentalists in Malaysian politics.

• This masterful demonstration of tolerance in yet another Islamic state must, undoubtedly, be the fault of the United States and President Bush. We are hard put to see how, but it must be so, mustn't it? After all, if the US hadn't declared war on Islamic fundamentalism, we'd all be living in a world free of Islamic terrorists, wouldn't we?

• Bumper sticker seen in the neighborhood: We are creating terrorists faster than we are killing them. The "we" being America, and the implication being that if we didn't kill them, we wouldn't be creating more. This may actually be true. If we didn't kill them, they wouldn't need to breed more terrorists because they'd be ruling the world.

• Bumper stickers also seen in the neighborhood: "Somewhere in Texas there's a village missing its idiot" and "A thousand points of light and we get the dim one". Cruel, but that's American political humor for you.

0230 GMT June 25, 2006

• [1230 GMT] Somalia: That Didn't Take Long AP reports that an Islamic fundamentalist has taken over the Islamic Courts Union, now renamed the Conservative Council of Islamic Courts. We assume the name change has been made just to make sure everyone gets the point.

• As usual with the media, the debate has begun whether the new leader is affiliated with Al Qaeda. US says he is, he says he is not. But that is not the point: no one cares if he is affiliated with AQ, and the US in particular needs to stop tying every blip, blap, and blop with AQ. Its quite possible to be to the right of AQ without having any contact with that corporation. The point is the man is a fundamentalist. He and his followers have to be taken out, regardless of what their spoken words are, because his vision for the world runs contrary to universal human rights.  That is not a complicated concept, and we do hope the people who make decisions understand it is not a complicated concept.

• Afghanistan: Good Guys 40, Bad Guys 0 after a battle with Taliban insurgents in an orchard. The entire lot is believed to have been killed, with no reports of KIA/WIA for the Afghan/Allied force. There were no civilian casualties. Another 45 Taliban have been killed in other battles. In one Taliban fled hiding among civilians; we do not know if a new order to show restraint in such situations is in place.

• Major Iraq Withdrawals To Start September 2006 says New York Times, citing a plan the top US general in Iraq has given. Two brigades scheduled to rotate back to the US will not be replaced. By end 2007 only 5-6 brigades of 14 present now will remain.

• NYT apparently says the withdrawals are deeper than many people expected. In line with ruthlessly examining our own forecasts, we have to say they are less than we expected before the Samarra mosque bombing. We believed 60,000 troops, 6-7 brigades, would remain by end of 2006.

• Lance Corporal Billy Goat of Royal Welch Busted To Private for refusing to stay in line during a Cyprus parade to mark HM the Queen's birthday and thereby ruining the ceremony. Billy, the regimental mascot, is descended from a royal goat gifted to the Welch Regiment in 1746. His handler could not control him as he attempted to butt the "nether regions" of the drummers.

• Since Billy is now just a Fusilier, the lower ranks do not have to salute him.

• Useful fact: Billy does not eat  grass. His food is flown in from Wales. His cigarette allowance is limited to two sticks, both of which he eats every day.

• In case anyone is confused: in 2006 the Royal Welch Fusiliers were amalgamated with the Royal Regiment of Wales into a new Royal Welsh Regiment. We refuse to use the new spelling. Wikpedia reminds us that in World War I Robert Graves, Siegfried Sassoon, David Jones, and Hedd Wyn served with the regiment. Wiki tells us - and we did not know this - Ford Madox Ford also served with the regiment in the Great War.

• China Central Bank Warns of Major Yuan Revaluation in 2007 and said exporters had better get used to the idea. In April PRC said that though there is no tiemtable, the yuan is to be made convertible on capital account.

• Spain Will Win World Cup 2006: Nostradamus predicted this in 1555. You don't believe us? Read http://english.pravda.ru/society/showbiz/22-06-2006/82389-Nostradamus-0 . Pravda is dubious if this is really going to happen. Nostradamus could be wrong, Pravda says, because football is an unpredictable game.

• Pravda also says Anna Kournikova made the whole world respect Russia. Folks, if saying he respects Russia will get your editor a date with Anna K, please note he is the biggest respecter of Russia for at least 1000 years. He is even willing to publicly acknowledge, as Pravda reveals, that aliens have built bases on the ocean floor. This conflicts with the editor's certain knowledge that the aliens are not on the ocean floor but here in Washington DC, but what the hey: Anna K is Anna K.

• Chad Backgrounder Reader marcopetroni sends this translation of an article from MISNA, an Italian news agency ( http://www.misna.org/default.asp?IDLingua=1 ): 

• New profound divisions have emerged over the past 24 hours within the United Front for Democratic Change (FUCD), a coalition created a few months ago by all armed groups in an aim, as of September 2005, to overthrow President Idriss Deby. In a series of official documents sent to the Alwihda radio (close to opposition movements) the FUCD leadership first dissolved the movement, then convoked a congress, forcing the president of the Front Mahamat Nour to deny everything and proceed in new nominations.

• The chronicle of a still confused day begins with the note sent to Alwihda by FUCD vice-president Hassane Saleh Aldjinedi communicating “the dissolution of the FUCD (…) given to contradictions in political and military decisions of its leaders”. A short while later, on the site of the radio a message appears of the official spokesman of the FUCD, Albissaty Allazam, denying the “dissolution” and convoking a congress of all members of the coalition “to be held from June 27 to 30”.

• To close the matter, or at least for the moment, was a direct intervention by Mahamt Nour, president and strongman of the FUCD – accused by Deby of acting on behalf of Sudan, which Chad has broken diplomatic relations with on accusation of inspiring, financing and supporting the rebel movements formed over the past months and hiding in the east of the nation along the border with Darfur.

• In the note, Nour nominated two new spokespersons, emphasising that the two (Laona Gong Raoul and Ali Ahmat Akbach) are the only two that can officially speak on behalf of the Front. Nour also denounces “Deby’s manoeuvres to divide the co-ordination” of the opposition movements. In reality, since the failed attack against the capital N’djamena, launched on April 13 and resulting in the death of a hundred people, the FUCD has been experiencing a profound internal crisis.

• The Front, created in December 2005, has in fact lost some founding components, such as the SCUD, undoubtedly the most important of armed groups formed in the past months and based along the border with Sudan because made up prevalently by former collaborators, generals, party companions and members of the same ethnic group of the Chadian President.

0230 GMT June 24, 2006

We feel peculiar doing such a pathetic news update, but really there is neither news or anything interesting happening! We will update in 12 hours if anything comes up.

• Another Iraqi AQ Leader Down He is custody and has not been identified.

• Miami Terror Plot is of no consequence - we advise our readers not to bother reading about it if they have anything at all of interest to do, such as watching the grass grow.

• Correction On ABM Test Yesterday we were told the USS Lake Eire involved, but today CNN says it was the Shiloh. Important: A Japanese Aegis destroyer was part of the test. It did the tracking of the warhead.

• Swedish Journalist Shot Dead in Mogadishu Look folks, a human being is a human being and we're very sorry, on a personal level, the journalist is dead, killed at close range by a gunman. Surely he has family and friends, and it must be devastating for them. But despite the efforts of some media to read meaning into this story, there is none. It doesn't mean the Islamic Courts are seeing a crack in their control of Mogadishu as some are suggesting. People get murdered all over the world, all the time. That this time its a journalist does not make the event significant.

• ICU have said they will find the man and punish him.

• Palestinian Mayor: Kassams Are Not To Kill If Palestinians wonder why no one takes them seriously, probably not even their mothers, go no further than this in the Jerusalem Post concerning the Hamas mayor of Beit Hanun, a town from which Kassams have been continuously launched at Israel:

• Quote: In any case, he claimed, the Kassams were harmless. "These are very elementary rockets," he said. "They are not for killing. They are for rejecting the occupation." Unquote.

• We'd award him a Klasse Klowne award, but frankly, no award we have could do justice to this piece of inanity.

• We're referring also to the mayor, not just his words - and by the way, your editor at least is on the side of the Palestinians. We hate to think how much fun people who don't like the Palestinians are having with this mayor. Thank you so much, Mr. Mayor,  for making the Palestine nation look like a mental hospital for hopeless cases. You make it so easy for us outsiders to stand up for you.

0230 GMT June 23, 2006

• Islamic Courts, Somalia Government Agree Ceasefire & Talks says CNN. The Islamic Courts agrees to recognize the government. Our reading is ICU is doing everything it can to head off foreign troops in Somalia, particularly the Ethiopians, who have every intention of going after ICU as they are secular and don't like Islamists. Our further reading is no agreement with ICU can be relied on.

• US has effectively stuck it to ICU by taking it at its word that it does not support terrorists: US has asked for custody of 3 terrorists including one worth a $5-million bounty. Great move, Washington. We will stay tuned.

• Afghan Prime Minister Wants Pakistan-Based Insurgents Targeted Mr. Karzai has very strongly criticized Allied tactics in the current offensive against the Taliban. He wants the Allies to go after the root cause of the insurgent problem, which he identifies as Pakistan, rather than going after the Taliban after they have crossed over into Afghanistan. His concern is civilians are getting killed, which is a legitimate issue needing discussion and action. But his statement that the Taliban are sons of Afghanistan even if they are insurgents is peculiar, to say the least.

• He is right, the terrorists have to be tackled in their bases, which are in Pakistan. But sons of Afghanistan or not, these insurgents are in rebellion against their country for no reason of ideology, and for no purpose except to continue their criminal activities. They need to be hunted down no matter where they are. You can't say: kill the sons of Afghanistan east of the Durand Line, but once they cross to the west of the line we must issue them bunny slippers and pink blankies and give them hot cocoa and sing them to sleep.

• This said, its important for Washington to understand what lies behind Mr. Karzai's words and frustrations. He feels - correctly - Washington is ready to spend any amount of military solutions but wont invest the needed sums in building up Afghanistan, militarily and economically.

• Generally, Washington has been pretty good about understanding Afghanistan requires a long-haul commitment over decades. Right now the problem is people like our very own fave celebrity, the Rummy Rumster. We are told he has been jumping up and down in the back seat of the van demanding to know "Are we there yet?" He needs to understand he has had a long and amazingly productive public life. But he is NOT going to see Afghanistan sorted out in his lifetime - he is in his 70s, though he is stronger and healthier than most men 30 years younger.

• Someone needs to quietly replace his 30-lb dumbells that he presses all day to keep fit and work off nervous energy with new ones. Make them 75-lbs each and we guarantee you Afghan policy will be safe from him for a year at least.

• US ABM Test Successful The Ticonderoga class cruise USS Lake Erie successfully intercepted a dummy warhead over the Pacific with a Standard 3 missile.

• Take that you dirty commie rats etc etc etc: you haven't even finished fuelling your pathetic missile and the US has shown how much that's going to be worth.

• PS: No one tell the North Koreans the test was planned at least a year ago

• A Blast From the Past In December 1955, the US government gave 3 aerospace companies one week to come up with production proposals for a US IRBM,  the Thor missile. Twenty days after the proposals were handed in, the government placed production contracts.

• Production began in August 1957. The first test took place on January 25, 1958 and failed, as did the subsequent five. The first successful test took place on October 5 of that year.

• On January 1, 1958, the first USAF Thor squadron was activated. At about the same time, US-UK reached agreement on stationing Thor in England. On September 19, the first RAF squadron activated. By June 1960 all 60 RAF Thors were operational.

• The missile went from concept to operational in two years. You did not have a bunch of people standing around making endless studies and trying to get the perfect missile. President Eisenhower declared Thor and other US missiles the national priority, the resources were made available, and people were left alone to do their jobs. They did their jobs.

• Try doing something like that today. We doubt even just the environmental impact statement would get finished in two years.  Further hint: doing nothing because US doesn't have the perfect ABM is not preferable to going with what is available. Still further hint: stop thinking in terms of a conventional warhead for ABM. Think 5 MT thermonuclear warhead. Still want to bet the US doesn't have an effective ABM system right now?

• Oh yes, a dozen 5 MT interceptors fired at six incoming DPRK or Iranian missiles are going to mess up the environment. Hint: six enemy missiles detonated over six US cities are going to, like, really mess up the environment.

0230 GMT June 22, 2006

• Former US State Official Says Iraq May Ask US To Withdraw Richard Armitage tells the Australian that Iraq may ask US forces to withdraw and that a weak federation may be the most optimistic outcome the US can expect. He says to avoid upsetting Turkey the term will not be used.

• The problem, he says, will be to stop Shia Iraq from exporting its violence to other Arab countries which have Shia minorities. He does not see Shia-Sunni violence as lessening, though he says hopeful signs exist.

• We are all for Baghdad asking the US to leave. This would solve several issues, such as giving the lie to those who say the US came for Iraqi oil. The Iraqis are perfectly capable of handling themselves them. All the US needs to do is to protect Kurdistan's independence and the Sunni provinces from the Shias.

• It is time for a serious paradigm shift on Iraq. Washington has run out of ideas. No one - ourselves included - saw that the problem would become one of the Shias fighting each other. Saddam is out of the picture, there are no WMDs, Al Qaeda will get slaughtered once the US leaves and the Iraqis are free to do things the way they want, democracy has been introduced; Iraqis will not give it up easily. And American troops will not be around as targets for every half-brained Islamic extremist

• Somali Leaders, Islamic Courts To Meet in Sudan says BBC. We confess to still being completely baffled as to what discussions with Islamic Courts is supposed to achieve.

• US Says Nine AQ Aviation Hijack/Bomb Plots Foiled since September 11, 2001. These include an attempt to hijack an airliner from Heathrow and fly it it into London's Canary Wharf commercial area.

• Mr. Bush Makes Nice With Europeans saying he wants to shut Gitmo, but cannot release everyone as some of the inmates are dangerous. Presumably these men will be tried in the US.

• It appears likely the US Government will lose a case pending before the Supreme Court that allows it to detain terror war suspects indefinitely without due process. Mr. Bush's remarks show the government is prepared for an adverse ruling.

0230 GMT June 21, 2006

There is little news this morning

• Zarqawi's Right Hand Man Next To Buy The Farm He was was killed in an airstrike at or near Yusifiya, where the 2 US soldiers were captured. We were about to say AQ in Iraq are dying like flies but had to refrain from insulting flies.

• Bodies of 2 Missing US Soldiers Recovered Readers will already have this news. Meanwhile, the world's hypocrisy is again evident. We hear no condemnations of the men who mutilated the bodies of the soldiers beyond recognition.

• In Indonesia, the newly-freed Bali bombing cleric advises the Australian Prime Minister he can save himself from hell by converting to Islam. Tell us, Sheikh Bashir, is this the Islam that condones mutilation of the bodies of fallen soldiers? Islam is a noble religion. Filth like you and Al Qaeda defile it. You can be sure you are not going to hell: even that place has some standards.

• Sudan President Says No UN Force While He Is In Power Well, folks, what are we waiting for? The man is clearly saying he wants to be removed from power, since Darfur cannot be allowed to continue as is. A country has no right to commit genocide against its people just because they happen to be citizens - there is something called universal human rights, a concept recognized in international law. So what is the plan here?

0230 GMT June 20, 2006

• No News From Ramadi BBC says US commanders say there are no plans for a full-scale assault, they are only trying to control insurgent movements better. Seems to us the best way to control insurgent movements is to cause the insurgents to cease moving, i.e., to kill them. Or is our theory too wildly complicated? Nonetheless, we believe there is considerable dissimulation going on by the US.

• 0Meanwhile, a group claiming to be an AQ affiliate says it has the two missing US soldiers but has posted no pictures or details, which is a bit odd. We have to wait and see what's going to happen.

• African Union To Send Team To Somalia The AU is prepared to deploy peacekeepers to support the provisional government and is sending a team to assess requirements.

• The Islamic Courts has opposed any arrival of foreign troops because obviously it puts paid to their plan to take over the country.

• While no one is particularly interested in what ICU thinks, the real problem is that likely contributing countries such as Ethiopia have their own factional interests inside Somalia. Nonetheless, the situation is dire because of the ICU victories.

• Islamic Courts Union: More Bad News About A Bunch Of Bad Guys Blogger Hugh Hewitt has a detailed post on the ICU http://hughhewitt.com/ - he posts a lot so you may have to scroll down to see the article, dated June 19. After you read the article you will come to the conclusion that the only thing to be discussed is how the US is to get rid of the ICU. There can be no working with them and no compromise. Thanks to Mike Thompson for the link.

• Trouble In Biafra Again BBC says Nigerian army troops have deployed to a part of Biafra where secessionist elements are active. The move comes after clashes between Biafran secessionists and police.

• Catalans Vote For Autonomy Though only about 55% of the eligible electorate participated, the vote was 75% in favor greater autonomy. The vote has been held with the approval of Madrid which is looking for a way to end the decades old separatist violence in Catalonia.

• Critics fear the vote could have the opposite effect: other regions could start demanding autonomy, leading to the breakup of Spain as a unified state.

• Saddam Verdict Expected September, Prosecutor Demands Death for the former dictator, his half brother, and the head of the revolutionary courts.

• Reuters says that a smiling and relaxed Saddam congratulated the prosecutor with a "well done" when the latter finished his arguments.

• Is Saddam being sedated to ensure he behaves himself in captivity and in the court?

• DPRK Missile Still Not Fired The DPRK has still not fired a long-range missile that might be capable of hitting Alaska despite having finished fuelling it. Apparently the missile has to be fired once fuelled because de-fuelling is dangerous, and letting the missile sit there fuelled will mean goodbye to the missile and probably the launch pad - the propellant is not something you want outside of its special storage tank.

• US/Japan have warned DPRK of the direst consequences if the missile is fired. Japan went as far as to say if any part of the missile fell on its territory, it would be an act of war. Later it backed down on that threat.

• Some analysts are saying US/Japan have no leverage with DPRK because the latter believes the former have already done their worst and cannot do anything more.

• We are of two minds on this test. Where is the preemption doctrine of Mr. Bush and Co when you need it? Take this thing out with a strike and finish the matter. Its a threat to the US and allies, DPRK is about the most despicable regime in the world and for once only 80% of the world will automatically hate the US for being decisive. AT least 20% - and that includes Japan - will be quietly grateful.

• On the other hand, the ABM system needs a lot more money than its being given. A successfully DPRK test out to Alaska range - we're talking range here, obviously the missile is not going to be fired at Alaska - will really boost ABM funding. Which is required on account of Iran, too, plus many tinpot dictators who will surely follow the leads of DPRK and Iran. Time to get serious about PRC missiles, also. Lets not have the stupidity of MAD all over again.

• US National Guard To New Orleans We are not sure how to react to the state of Louisiana's deployment of the Guard to New Orleans for policing duties following the murder of 5 teenagers for no reason as yet apparent. Does this constitute an emergency? Hardly: New Orleans has for years had the highest homicide rates in the country, ten times the national average - see http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8999837 for some of the issues.

• The mayor - recently reelected despite the Katrina fiasco for which he and a number of other officials should be serving extended terms in jail - argues that New Orleans residents need to feel safe or they will not return. Fine. But is it the Guard's job to provide public safety because the police have habitually failed? Seems to us New Orleans Police Department needs to be taken over by the Federal Government, not the Guard sent.

0230 GMT June 19, 2006

• [0400 GMT] Ramadi Surrounded A US fighterjet  dropped a bridge in Ramadi completing the encirclement of this insurgent controlled city prior to the start of an offensive. US has been working in place quietly over weeks now. We assume little has been said in the media because the US has not advertised its plans, unlike what happened in Fallujah, and the city is, frankly, no place for newpersons, no matter how brave. We can blame no journalist who refuses to go there.

• Ramadi was never brought under control because of the lack of troops and it has been a festering sore for the better part of two years.

• CNN says US forces now control all crossings and have moved to take control of one suburb.

• So, if the insurgents of Ramadi don't mind, we'll be just a bit ahead of the pack and give them our deepest loves and kisses, because you fellows are as good as dead. Remember Fallujah, the city you thought you'd make into another Grozny? Where you were beaten so thoroughly you haven't been able to return? On to Fallujah 2, and good riddance to the scum. You all aren't smart enough, motivated enough, or brave enough to fight off the men - and some women - that are coming for you.

• Frankly, we at orbat.com can't wait.

• Note to US Army/Marines: you all aren't going to disappoint your loyal fans back home, are you? Hope you really are just waiting to to start the push and there is not some other reason for these maneuvers.

• 500 Ethiopian Troops near Baidoa says BBC and daily arms shipments are arriving in Somalia for the Islamic Courts and provisional government in defiance of a UN embargo.

• This raises a question: it is known where the the provisional government and warlords get/were getting their shipments from. Who is arming the Islamic Courts?

• UN has started meeping about the risk to civilians and wants the provisional government to talk to the Islamic Courts. About what? The terms under which the provisional government is to surrender? Get real, someone.

• Nonetheless: Washington Post says women in Mogadishu welcome the Islamic Courts rule because crime against women has sharply dropped. The Somali militias at the best of times were apparently a bunch of the lowest life scum, abducting and raping children as young as 4 and 5 among their other entertainments.

• The problem here is going to be the extremists. In Afghanistan the Taliban went so far that women were not allowed to work, and if a woman had family to support but no man around, as far as the Taliban were concerned she and her children could jolly well starve to death.

• Search Still On For 2US Soldiers Apparently Captured By AQ Our earlier report said the 2 soldiers were captured in an ambush in Baghdad. This is wrong. They were manning a checkpoint in Ysuafiya, west of Baghdad.

• US says elements of 3 brigades are looking for them.

• The difficulty, according to locals, is that the insurgents here are outsiders and routinely kill anyone suspected of helping US/Iraqi forces. So while the locals may want to provide information, they will be reluctant to do so.

• A car with blood in the trunk and bloody footprints has been found.

• Allied Forces Kill 40 more Afghan Insurgents as part of the sweep of the southern provinces. The total has reached 85, 45 of whom were reported killed earlier.

• The Taliban objective in this year's summer offensive is supposedly to prevent NATO from occupying 4 lightly policed provinces in the south, by inflicting losses sufficient to force NATO. So far all that the insurgents have managed is to face a highly unfavorable exchange rate versus Afghan forces, and give NATO forces some excellent live battle training - which it rather badly needs.

• Washington Post says US is now flying twice as many attack sorties over Afghanistan as over Iraq. This is a good thing; the US, however, needs to be more careful about using airpower to kill insurgents when they are hiding among the civilian population.

• One thing that would help is to make clear no prisoners will be taken when insurgents use that tactic. For all the bosh about wanting martyrdom, the Taliban insurgents don't fight much. They spend a few days or a couple of weeks in the field, and then retire to Pakistan. Individuals then step out again when they feel like it. Staying alive at all costs is quite a priority with them.

• "Phony Truce" In Sri Lanka says BBC. Neither side is ready to resume war, but both sides are preparing to do just that.

• 3 Sri Lanka police officers have been killed by the LTTE - which as usual denies responsibility.

• Meanwhile, an LTTE breakaway rebel, Col. Karuna, has been launching attacks on LTTE positions. LTTE says Sri Lanka is arming the good colonel, something both deny.

• It is hardly any secret Karuna is now working with the Sri Lankan Army, if for no other reason but to stay alive. Since he split in 2004 because, he said, his faction was doing the fighting but not getting the respect, the LTTE has been gunning for him in a "Kill Karuna" type all-costs situation.

0230 GMT June 18, 2006

• Islamic Courts Say Provisional Government Invites Ethiopian Troops to enter Somalia. IC says it will not move on Baidoa until it is clear as to the situation on possible foreign intervention.

• Ethiopia, which is close to the provisional President of Somalia says it has sent 300 troops to the border as a precaution because of the advance of the Islamic Courts. IV says the troops have crossed into Somalia.

• Meanwhile, IC alleges that two warlords were evacuated by a ship of the US 5th Fleet. Officially IC is still making kissy faces for everyone's benefit - including the provisional government with whom it wants talks. There is, however, the question of what is a moderate Islamist. However moderate, he is still anti-democratic and anti-human rights. There is also the problem that the IC is made up of factions - some of them are pretty extreme and are just biding their time.

• Sri Lanka Fighting With the insurgent LTTE having blown up a bus killing 64 civilians, the Sri Lanka Army has retaliated and says 37 people have been killed in fighting, mainly insurgents. The Tigers deny the attack, as they have denied several attacks on civilians in the last few months.

• Two US Soldiers Apparently Captured By AQ Earlier the two were missing after an ambush in Baghdad which killed a third soldier but now it is believed they are captive.

• Several raids have already been staged without result.

• Allied Forces Kill 45 Afghan Insurgents as part of the sweep of the southern provinces. Most of the insurgents were in one camp along with trainers, bomb experts, and financiers. At the second camp 5 insurgents were killed and 8-lbs of opium recovered. While the insurgents are working with drug traffickers, the 8-lbs is not in itself evidence of anything: many Afghans are opium addicts.

• Yesterday and the day before there were clashes in several parts of Afghanistan, most of them resulting in Taliban killed, but government forces also lost men. 12 insurgents were captured attending the funeral of a slain commander.

• Royal Navy To Add 5th Special Boat Squadron to help increase SF capabilities in Afghanistan. We were a bit surprised to here this - your editor has not tracked UK forces closely in decades, but apparently the Special Boat Service has two of its 4 squadrons qualified for land warfare. And why not, the USN has had SEALs in Afghanistan from almost the start of the war. The British troops are deployed on counter-infiltration duty on the Pakistan border.  Subtext: some baddies are getting permanent early retirement papers but we suspect that the troops are primarily doing intelligence work and setting up groups of infiltrators as targets for other troops. Wont do for Her Majesty's troops to be blowing baddies to bits inside Pakistan.

• US Navy Develops Anti-Torpedo Torpedo This is a little fellow, about the diameter of a 155mm artillery shell and and at 200-lbs twice as heavy. It can be launched from a variety of platforms, and on its own is considered a pretty good weapon against submarines and small warships.

• It is not designed to counter the new ultra high-speed torpedoes like Russian Shaval - which we've noted earlier is a limited weapon, but since the west is working on advanced versions of its own we would assume that money allowing, the Russians will also be upgrading.

0230 GMT June 17, 2006

• Haditha Probe Concluded Washington Post has a story on the army 2-star who has conducted the Haditha enquiry in which people interviewed say he is one of the most uncompromising officers anywhere and never backs down if he believes he is right. One source went as far as to say the Pentagon may be sorry it appointed him as the enquiry officer because he's liable to tell the Pentagon more than it wants to hear.

• We were more interested in the opinions people had of him as a soldier. Apparently he is one of those very rare soldiers who has never made a mistake in combat.

• We do hope the Pentagon realizes that if part of its objective in holding the enquiry is to win brownie points with the Arab world, it is going to fail big time. Most of the Marines are going to be found guilty of nothing because they did nothing wrong. We are not saying that no crime occurred, because we don't know that. We do know that the "evidence" so far as we have seen in the media has been concocted, and the Marine who now says he was sent back to take photographs and saw evidence of a massacre is not exactly - shall we say for now - telling the truth.

• If anyone is acquitted, the Arab world will be angry. If anyone is convicted, because he is not going to be shot, the Arab world will be angry. The Big brains who run the Pentagon don't seem to understand they psychology of the people they are deal with. Iraqis and Arabs are not Americans dressed in funny clothes and with funny accidents. You cannot under any conditions get an Arab to love you. Arabs see any effort to be nice to them as a weakness. They only thing they respect is strength - and its not a bad idea to be feared by respected rather than hated and disrespected.

• Islamic Courts Move On Provisional Government HQ At Baidoa and are preparing to attack Puntland, the semi-autonomous province from where the provisional head of government comes. He has run Puntland with a firm hand and - by the standards of the region - fairly. It is a peaceful area.

• So the Islamic Courts have made their objective clear: control of all of Somalia.

• The thinking part of the US public is in danger of getting seriously fuddled: the Islamists are saying they have nothing to do with terrorists. By and large, we at Orbat.com believe that to be true. Somalis are clan oriented, and outsiders are not cut any slack. The issue, however, is different. The Islamic Courts have clearly said they will impose Sharia law. In case people forget, the Taliban in Afghanistan minded their own business: they gave Bin Laden shelter because he was financing the government which had no other revenues. But the Taliban were not exporting terror or terrorizing anyone - except their own people.

• They represented one of the worst governments the world has seen in modern times because of their insistence on sharia law - and a version that harks back to medieval times.

• The same danger is arising in Somalia. The war against terror is not just a war against terror. It is a war for democracy against religious totalitarianism of a particularly brutal kind. The Islamic Courts must be defeated, not because they harbor terrorists, but because they are anti-democratic and they will abuse human rights in just about every manner possible.

• Yuan Below 8 to US Dollar As China acts to cool its overheated investment atmosphere, where too much money is being invested in production capacity for goods the world cannot absorb, one weapon it is using is to gradually increase the value of the yuan. A few days ago the yuan was permitted to rise to 7.9998 (we are not sure if we have the number of 9s right). Of course, that still leaves it way overvalued, but a psychological barrier has been breached.

• We are not quite sure how revaluation is supposed to reduce the flow of hot money. Apparently it has something to do with discouraging the huge sums that are being poured into yuan purchases by overseas buyer hoping to make a killing when the yuan is revalued - as it will have to be.

• Nepal Agrees To New Elections That Maoists Will Participate In This is a huge concession by the establishment and also recognition of the reality that the Maoists control much of rural Nepal.

• In return for legitimacy, the Maoists will dissolve their provisional governments as soon as some of the leaders join the government ahead of new elections.

• This new development is not something Orbat.com is worried about. Two Indian states, West Bengal and Kerala, have for decades featured Marxist governments. They don't take their orders from Beijing and they are quite pro-capitalist. They make some attempt to provide clean government and look after the poor.

• We don't want to get lyrical here about the Indian Marxists: if the non-Marxists devote 5% of their effort to doing their job for the people and 95% on enriching themselves, the Indian Marxists devote 10% to the people and 90% on themselves. So its still pretty dismal. American politicians used to be 50-50, now its 60% on doing what it takes to get relected; our American readers are still better off. Iraq, of course, scores 0 for 100.

0230 GMT June 16, 2006

• Political Correctness Gone Mad A US Marine NCO writes and sings a song for his mates about killing an Iraqi child Haji. The song is a satire. He set the words to some popular American song.  He has made to apologize.

• Even if it wasn't a joke, why should he have to apologize? Did he go on ABC or Iraq TV to sing the song in some version of American Idol? What should soldiers sing about except killing? Would America feel safer if its highly-trained professional killers sang enlightening songs from Sesame Street?

• We have a one word comment: Sick. And we are not referring to the Marine.

• We have one suggestion to whoever got this bright idea to make the Marine apologize: read a few issues of Mad Magazine. And if you can find some, read issues of the 1960s comic Zap. If you are so sensitive that a song about killing a child Haji makes you ill, may we suggest plenty of barf bags at hand when you read Zap.

• US/Iraq Dismantling AQ In Iraq Since Zarqawi's death last week, BBC says more than 450 raids have been staged, 104 insurgents killed and 750 captured. Iraq has already all but announced victory, which is to be expected: Iraqis tend to favor the rhetorical flourish. But surprisingly the US is unusually optomistic.

• Here is a conundrum: the new leader of AQ in Iraq, the Egyptian Al Musfir? Cairo says it has never heard of him. Assuming Cairo is not playing games, it indicates that the new gent is a bit player.

• Iraqis Attack Iran's Basra Consulate  saying Iran must apologize for a media program insulting a Basra Shia cleric. Iran says none of its 5 staff was injured. It wants the Basra police to do a better job. So do we, for other reasons.

• Zarqawi Papers Says Iraq Army Destroyed His Insurgency This information comes from papers released by the Iraqis. Zarqawi uses the term "National Guards", but starting in early 2005 the Iraqi National Guard was merged into the army. One of the ways the Iraq Army ruined his happiness was that its presence and operations reduced US casualties. [Thanks Mike Thompson.]

• Afghanistan: 40 Taliban Killed Yesterday by US airstrikes and Afghan troops. Operation Mountain Thrust is focusing on the southern Afghan provinces that border Pakistan.

• UK Will Jail Liberian Dictator After War Crime Trial In The Hague This clears the way for Mr. Taylor to be transferred to the Hague. Earlier, the Europeans had refused to accept this "guest" in case he was convicted.

• Too bad for Mr. Taylor. British jails can be pretty rough whereas Dutch and Scandinavian jails are the 5-stars. We still think he will get off too easy. The US should jail him.

• Venezuela To Buy Russian Su-30s 24 aircraft will replace the F-16s that the US has now stopped supporting. More may be purchased later.

• If Venezuela can competently maintain and operate this very complex aircraft, it is a sensible move. The Su-30 is in the F-15 class and will significantly enhance the country's air defense capabilities. Of course, if the US were inclined to attack, whether Venezuela has 24 Su-30s or 240 is not going to make any difference.

• The US fighter aircraft industry must be thanking its good luck. Several Latin nations will now insist on upgrading their air forces. We suspect Brazil is going to be among the first to specify new combat aircraft.

0230 GMT June 15, 2006

• Good For Mr. Bush According to Times London, the US president said Gitmo does give ammunition to anti-Americans. He says that prisoners will receive a fair trial.
• Bad For Mr. Bush This brings us to a point reader Walter E. Wallis makes. It provides the first moral clarity we've seen every since the issues of fighting terrorism and Iraq and Gitmo have come up.
• Mr. Wallis says Mr. Bush is wrong to use the language of law enforcement because that brings up matters such as prisoners rights, fair trials, and so on.
• Mr. Wallis's point is that we are in a war. There is in no point in demonizing people like Zarqawi using the language of civil society. Zarqawi was neither good nor bad: he was doing what he thought he needed to in order to win.
• Conversely, however, we need to do what we need to win.
• Now, while Mr. Wallis does not say this, we are extending the implications of his thought. The prisoners at Gitmo deserve neither rights nor trials because they are enemy combatants or suspected enemy combatants not cover by Geneva. Zarqawi and company are certainly entitled to no rights of any sort. Saddam is, because he was the head of his country and a uniformed soldier who fought as president of his country.
• That does not make what the US is doing at Gitmo right because while the US has a 100% airtight legal case to act as it is, it has lost the propaganda war for no great advantage in actionable intelligence. The high value prisoners do not enter Gitmo to begin with. The prisoners there seem uniformly be a bunch of pathetic low-lifes who managed to escape being killed on the battlefield.
• Gitmo is not cost-effective in the larger terms of the terror war. Shut it down.
• Jowhar Falls To Islamic Courts Militia who now effectively control southern Somalia. Some reports say the warlords militia withdrew without fighting, others say there was fighting in outlying villages.
• Biggest post-2001 Afghan Offensive will begin today, with 11,000 US/NATO troops seeking to establish control of 4 southern provinces for the first time, prior to a NATO command taking over the region.
• US estimates Taliban number 6,000. This is more than we had thought, but given Pakistan's efforts to rebuilt the Taliban perhaps this is not surprising. NATO commanders give the insurgents high marks for striking and blending back into the population, the trouble being when the Taliban strike they usually suffer heavy losses. The concern is that the Taliban will realize they cannot defeat NATO forces in combat, and will resort to suicide attacks and IEDs placed on roads, as has happened in Iraq. Afghanistan, however, is lightly populated and this creates problems both for suicide bombers and IED planters.
• Finally, Tough Security Measures In Baghdad 70,000 Army and police will deploy in the capital. There will be night curfews and a ban on vehicular traffic during Friday prayer hours. Guns will have to be left at home. New uniforms are being issued because insurgents are said to have too many stolen uniforms.
• First, the US should have imposed these measures the same day it entered Baghdad.
• Second, it remains to be seen if the government will crack down on Shia militias. If it does not, then much of the positive effect of the tighter security will be lost. After all, if the Interior Ministry authorizes - say - the Sadr militia to carry arms to "protect" Shia neighborhoods, the militia is going to remain armed.
• Major SF Redeployment From Iraq To Afghanistan Looks like people are finally getting serious about finding Osama and his deputy Zawahiri. Reader Mike Thompson forwards an article from the UK Herald  http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/63851-print.shtml which says 400 US, UK, Australian, Canadian, and Polish SF troops are leaving Iraq for Afghanistan. They are members of the Balad, Iraq based TF121, which caught Saddam and pinned down Zarqawi.
• The article says the two men are in a 10,000 square mile area straddling the Pushtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, protected by Arab and Chechen fighters . They do not use satellite phones or the web, and they do not communicate directly with each other. The communications system runs on couriers and cutouts. This makes it very safe, and also next to useless for tactical operations.
• Afghan Government Delegation Says Gitmo Humane says an AP news agency dispatch forwarded by reader macropetroni. The officials visited the US prison and say they were allowed to speak freely with their 96 detained nationals. There were some minor complaints. US has been repatriating Afghan nationals.
• Japan Parliament Wants DPRK Sanctions unless the latter releases all kidnapped Japanese citizens and provides information on those who may no longer be alive. The bill is likely to be passed this week. Problem is, BBC says, the bill does not specify the who, when, what, where of sanctions nor how DPRK progress toward meeting Japanese demands is to be measured.
• Nonetheless, the bill will be another step in increasing Japan's assertion of its rights in dealing with other countries. Till recently Japan has pretty much had a "Kick Me And Thank You In Advance" sign on its rear end. The current prime minister's repeated visits to a shrine dedicated to Japanese war dead despite vehement objections from China and the dispatch of troops (unarmed) to Iraq are other indications.
• Japanese government has proposed a full-fledged Defense Ministry, and in the longer term, an amendment to the constitution to provide a more pro-active definition of defense.
   

0230 GMT June 14, 2006

• Saddam Judge Closes Defense The case can now proceed to final arguments. Though the defense has often claimed the trial is not fair, the truth is the defendants and defense witnesses have behaved badly, insulting the court and trying to turn the trial into a political circus. This has forced the judge to eject witnesses, force defendants to cut short their speeches, and rebuked the defense on many occasions. If the defense is punished for showing lack of respect to the court, that does not mean the trial was unfair.
• Palestine Mine Caused Beach Deaths says an Israeli inquiry of the  blast that killed 7 civilians. Apparently Israeli commandos had earlier entered Palestine via the same beach and the Palestinians had planted mines as a deterrent. Israel says it has intelligence that the mines were removed after the explosion. It has tracked the six shells fired in the area by Israeli forces, against rocket launcher related targets and finds that none of the shells hit the beach. Also, some of the victims were treated in Israeli hospitals and Israel has forensic evidence that none of the injuries was caused by its shells.
• East African States Sanction Somali Warlords says BBC. This includes a travel ban, an asset freeze, exploration of the possibilities of trials for crimes against humanity, and a crackdown on the khat drug trade.
• The East African position is the win by the Islamic Courts is a popular uprising.
• No one can disagree with the East Africans concerning their sanctions. The problem from the US viewpoint is what is to be done about the Islamic Courts.
• UN To Return To East Timor says the UN Secretary General. That's fine, and can the UN get it right this time and not pullout prematurely?
• Letter From James Freemon On the question of if the strike against the terrorist Zarqawi is an execution: "If you target a specific individual for who he is or what he's done, bydefinition that is an execution. That doesn't make it wrong. It's just semantics. To target the enemy's leaders is the business of war. Enemy Generals are legitimate targets. That's how it's done. Call it executionor whatever, it doesn't matter.
• If you do happen to be given an actionable but ill gotten piece of
  information on a legitimate high-value target, do you use it to kill him
  or do you let him go until another day?  A true Liberal might examine
  all the moral implications and then seek a consensus among others before
  reluctantly taking the high road and letting the bad guy go. A true
  Conservative might stop firing only long enough to reload.
  
   

0230 GMT June 13, 2006

• 37 Taliban Killed in Afghan Army operations. The allies/Afghans are pushing into areas of southern Afghanistan previously not under government control and this in turn is resulting in much of the fighting.
• Pakistani Taliban Declares Islamic Lifestyle North Waziristan From now on, drugs, alcohol, inappropriate music and movies etc are banned and purveyors will be punished even if the offenses are judged non-actionable or the accused held innocent by the civil authority.
• Al Qaeda In Iraq Has New Head says BBC. Abu Hamza al-Mujahir is the new person with a target painted on his forehead. The name suggests he too is non-Iraqi, and our words of advice to AQ are good luck with all that.
• Zarqawi had a highly centralized management style; it is going to be very difficult to recreate his organization any time soon. The last time around, Zarqawi had two years of relative freedom to set up and refine operations, plus he had the cooperation of the locals. Al-Mujahir is under the gun from day one, the locals don't like foreigners any more, and the Iraq government has an increasingly strong presence in the area. To say nothing of Zarqawi's organization being under serious stress thanks to documents recovered from his safe house.
• Palestine President's Men On Rampage and set fire to the Hamas Prime Minister's office and parliament in Ramallah. The provocation was, BBC says, Hamas gunmen firing on Fatah gunmen; Fatah retaliated.
• Cuba Cuts Power To US Mission says CNN. The mission is running on generator power, and says that water supplies are also reduced from time to time. While the Cubans haven't said why the power is cut, possibly it is retaliation/harassment for the US's having put up a giant electronic signboard within the mission to provide news to the public. The Cubans have planted an array of flags on the street to hide the display.
• So visceral is American official hatred of Cuba and so tight is the control of exiles - now US citizens - over US policy toward Cuba that this remains the most irrational policy in US diplomacy. It is, of course, impossible to say to what extent the US has helped to keep Mr. Castro in power by its unremitting opposition to him for over 45 years, but dictators have fallen all over the world yet Mr. Castro keeps going strong. Good thinking, US Congress: US policy has repeatedly failed to bring down the Old Man, so the obvious solution to keep doing the same thing. They have terms for these sort of mental conditions, and treatment too. The first requirement is, however, for the patient to recognize he is sick. This aint bout to happen.
• Letter from Walter E Wallis The letter is brief: "Gitmo - Koji Do deja vu.

0230 GMT June 12, 2006

• India Not To Provide Troops for Afghanistan according to an Italian news agency report forwarded by reader marcopetroni. Pakistan is concerned that India will step up its presence in the country, but the Indians say they offered troops for Afghanistan in 2001 and were turned down by the US. It's unclear from the report if the offer was for large-scale training or for security. They say if troops were now sent, the troops will simply become targets for the new Taliban supported by Pakistan. The question of if India will send additional troops to provide security for its civilian reconstruction effort appears to be open.
• Al Qaeda Threatens Attacks in retaliation for Zarqawi's killing. "It vowed "to prepare major attacks that will shake the enemy like an earthquake and rattle them out of sleep"" [quote from Times London].
• Rattle away, kids. You may have figured out by now the Americans don't sleep. And with 56 raids mounted against you just in the immediate aftermath of your leader's death, who know how many raids are yet to come with all the new information now at hand? We aren't holding our breath waiting for your earthquake.
• Spain Smashes Another Indigenous Terror Group says BBC. We have to admit we hadn't heard of this particular group. It's called Grapo, the Spanish acronym for October First Anti-Fascist Resistance Group and has apparently killed dozens of people over the last 30 years. France and Spain worked together 2000-2002 to dismantle the group, but it is only now the head has been captured.
• China Test AWACS Crashes Sunday Times says a Chinese AWACS under test crashed 200 miles southwest of Shanghai last Sunday, killing 40. The loss includes 35 electronic warfare technicians. The aircraft, a KJ-2000, uses an Il-76 airframe.
• Islamic Hardliner Rules In Mogadishu says Sunday Times. From BBC we learn that the Islamic Courts have ordered all cinemas to be shut down.
• The residents of Mogadishu wanted peace, they are jolly well going to get peace - the Islamic peace. And if they don't like it, they'll get permanent peace - the peace of the grave.
• Moral Confusion Reader Mike Thompson is disgusted with his home state senator, Barack Obama, for saying Zarqawi was executed. A left magazine wants to know what's the difference between us an AQ because surely the insurgent who was captured and ratted out Zarqawi was tortured for the information.
• We were doing Senator Obama an injustice in thinking he was just another pretty face. We see now he is just a mindless pretty face. As for the left magazine, we ask it to apply a simple test. Would it prefer to live in a world run by Zarqawi or by the US? If the latter, the magazine has answered its own question.

• Zimbabwe Inflation At 1200% Annual Rate as of May.

• The lesson in all of this is that if you kill your people slowly, as Dictator Robert Mugabe is doing, the world will ignore you. If you make a big show of killing them - Dafur is an example, people will intervene. But what the heck: in Zimbabwe its just another bunch of black Africans dying due to deliberately imposed malnutrition, disease, lack of public services - and lack of money to pay for the few that remains. And really, my dear, who gives a darn? Pass the cucumber sandwiches, please.

• Somalia: Fighting in Baidoa BBC says 10 were killed when the interim President's militia clashed with warlord militia that extorts money via illegal roadblocks. The clan leader was reported killed.

• 3 Hang Themselves at Gitmo The US has made some progress emptying out its ill-conceived prison at Guantanamo Bay, but not enough to shut it down. Some prisoners remain because no country will take them.

• We've said it before: this lot is not entitled to Geneva's protections. Nonetheless, the US is earning no points anywhere by operating this prison. If they're guilty, shoot them. If they're innocent, let them go.

• Pakistan Army Says It Has Killed 15-20 Insurgents in Waziristan. Jang says the figure includes several foreigners.

• Canadians Kill 30-60 Insurgents in Afghanistan last week. This happened in fighting on Monday; we're not clear why this was not publicized at the time.

0230 GMT June 10, 2006

• Mightiest Ideology Of Them All: The US Dollar Part II While yesterday the Iraqi Prime Minister was saying the bounty on Zarqawi will be paid, US sources say that information was developed by intelligence sources and there was no informer as such. Of course, the US could be saying this to protect the informer/s. It does seem, however, that the Jordanians helped to identify a terrorist who knew the movements of the cleric who was killed along with Zarqawi, and he was, um, "persuaded" to cooperate.

• Contrary to first reports, no child was killed in the strike.

• While 17 raids were conducted in Baghdad right after the airstrike - we were earlier under the impression from press reports that these were based on information gathered from the terrorist's safe house, 40 additional raids were mounted based on an analysis of documents at the safe house. US/Iraq are clearly moving to suppress, as much as possible, retaliation by the terrorist's supporters.

• GOP Reprieve We've been negligent in reporting that in the special election held in California - a democratic-leaning state to fill the seat of convicted bribe-taker Republican Duke Cunningham, another Republican won. This was unexpected, and welcome news for the GOP.

• Nonetheless, Republicans concede control of the House may go to the Democrats in November. There seems to be no chance the Republicans will lose the Senate.

• Afghan Troops Kill 13 Taliban while fighting off an ambush on their convoy. This makes up for a bad week in which more government forces/civil servants were killed than Taliban, an unusual reversal of the normal lop-sided toll the insurgents suffer.

• Somalia A showdown appears inevitable now that warlord militia have moved to a village south of Jowhar and the Islamic Courts militia moved north to block the warlords.

• Israeli Artillery Shell Kills 12 Palestine Civilians on account, apparently, of a misfire. Almost immediately after, the Israeli Air Force attacked a car carrying two militants targeted for launching rockets at Israel.

0230 GMT June 9, 2006

• Mightiest Ideology Of Them All: The US Dollar The terrorist Zarqawi was ratted out by his own people. Somewhere in the world there is a new multimillionare, or perhaps more than one. The terrorist had a $25-million bounty on his head. When it came to choosing between ideology and the dollar, the dollar won.

• Times London says that Zarqawi decided in 2002 he was going to fight the US military presence in the Middle East. If so, whatever sins people want to lay at Mr. Bush's door - and we are second to none in that respect - Zarqawi is not one of them. Many people don't want to accept that Islamic extremists are in a fight against western civilization. The US did not create Osama and company. These gentlemen were preparing for war against the US and engaging in the first skirmishes all through the 1990s. The US gave them no provocation.

• Israel Kills Hamas Security Chief This gentleman was a key player in the rocket attacks on Israel and was killed by an airstrike.

• We hope Hamas now gets the Israeli message loud and clear: you kill an Israeli chicken, you die. Readers will recall that a major rocket attack landed in a chicken farm. If we may, however, interject: the life of any chicken is definitely worth more than that of a terrorist.

• The gentleman's militant faction, which is part of the Hamas-led government, "vowed revenge" says Times London. As they dismissively say in New York "yeah, yeah". 

• Somalia we got out distance to Jowhar wrong: it is 90 km north of Mogadishu, not 70. Reader marcopetroni sends a report from an Italian agency that the provisional government, the Islamic Courts, and the warlords are in negotiations to create a government to run Mogadishu.

• The Courts and warlords each have 500 militia at Jowhar. So far both sides are avoiding open confrontation.

We didn't miss a day: we had our dates mixed up as happens every now and then.

0230 GMT June 7, 2006

• [1630 GMT]  Zarqawi Killed earlier today by a USAF F-16 that dropped two 500-lb bombs on a house in Babuqah. He was cornered using a combination of leads from Iraqis, surveillance, and signals intelligence that were developed over an extended period. His body was recovered and he has been positively identified by fingerprints, scars, and other markers.
• We'd like to mention a woman and a child were killed in the same strike. This is the price of war. When these operations work out, the innocents killed are written off. When they fail, people start screaming about US atrocities.
• CNN cannot resist the usual meaningless analysis: Zarqawi's death, it says, may unleash a wave of revenge attacks. Our question to CNN: And? The man was killing hundreds of Iraqis every month, so are we worse off because he's dead? Should the US have allowed him to live to avoid those revenge attacks? Come on CNN, try and make some sense for a change. We know your reporters want to been seen as deep analysts, but leave the analysis to those qualified to make it.
• Based on information recovered from the house, US/Iraq forces raided 17 sites in the Baghdad area. One source says the information is a "treasure trove".
• Somalia Reader marcopetroni sends a number of items on Somalia from an Italian news agency. Main points:
• Men of the Islamic Courts militia have reached Jowhar, the stronghold of a major warlord and both sides are maneuvering to avoid a fight. Though Jowhar can be considered a vital point for the defense of Mogadishu, about 70 km away, it is equally a vital point for anyone wanting to start extending control to the whole country - which the Islamic Courts say they are going to do.
• [1630 GMT] Reports say the Islamic Courts are maneuvering to surround Jowhar prior to taking it and the vital airstrip; meanwhile, warlords are reinforcing the town. Washington post says the fall of Jowhar will give control over souther Sudan to the Islamic Courts.
• Washington Post also reports that the US was paying $100,000/month to the warlords to assist them in their fight against the Islamic Courts. We don't know if this was in addition to weapons, but we don't want our readers to be surprised at the small sum: these sort of covert operations are usually conducted on a shoestring.
• In Mogadishu, the militia is demanding warlord militia troops who have not surrendered do so or face the consequences.
• There is a split between radicals and moderates in the Islamic Courts. The radicals want to impose a fundamentalist regime.
• The Islamic Courts indicates it wants a dialog with the US; the US has not rejected the idea.
• Kenya has told warlords they are no longer welcome to visit or to conduct business from Kenya. It is not clear if this applies also to the Islamic Courts. As yet there is no reason apparent for the decision.
• People in Mogadishu are said to be happy the fighting has stopped and welcome the possibility of an orderly peace. Nonetheless, there is apprehension about the Islamic Courts from people who don't belong  to the now victorious faction.
• Canadian Police Received Sensitivity Training before conducting their recent arrests of Islamic terrorists. Since none of the accused resisted arrest, we have yet to see how sensitively the Canadian police kill someone who is trying to kill them.
• Extra 3,000 Troops For Dafur BBC says the African Union is adding 3000 troops to the 7000 already in Dafur.
• The addition will help, but not much. African troops have been trained by the US for peacekeeping, not for peacemaking. They are lightly armed and aside from firepower lack mobility and protection.
• Sudan is still obstructing the introduction of a more robust UN force.
• British Army Legal Officer Refused Permission To Shoot Looters when UK troops asked for permission to deal with the wholesale looting in their AOR after the 2003 invasion. He says he did not want to see dead Iraqi civilians in the street.
• That is so terribly sweet, we just want to cry. May we point out the occupying power has the responsibility for law and order and such shooting looters would have done a world of good.
• Of course, we are being somewhat unfair to the legal officer. Just as was the case with the US Pentagon, the UK's MOD was completely unprepared for the aftermath of the invasion. So the legal officer had no guidance from his superiors.
• Just to show the Americans were not alone in la-la land, the reason the British were unprepared is the army was told UN troops would take over the occupation. Huh? Where did London get that idea from? There is not one fact that suggests the UN was going to do anything to help. And three years later, it still isn't doing anything. Pure spite, but there it is.
• Another Example of the Decline of American Civilization Associated Press says a poll shows that students rate Apple's I-Pod as more "in" than drinking beer, which usually runs a steady first in the annual survey. America is doomed. Anyone knows Real Men and Women do not listen to I-Pods. They drink beer till they pass out, recover, drink more beer, then pass out again. That's the spirit that built the American world empire.
• Your editor doesn't drink. Years ago, two of his young protégés were in college and daily consuming large quantities of beer, spirits, and a wide range of substances which in the US are euphemistically called "controlled". They were insistent your editor have at least one drink. Your editor explained drinking made him feel sick. "We all feel sick when we start drinking," they said dismissively, "the trick is to keep drinking till you get past the point of feeling sick." They thought your editor was being terribly self-indulgent in refusing to drink because it made him sick.

0230 GMT June 6, 2006

Opinion: The US Needs To Get Out Of Shia Iraq

• Orbat.com was fully supportive of Gulf II, not because of WMDs, but because Saddam was a bloody tyrant and needed to go. We supported the US effort to pacify Iraq, with reservations. The reservations arose for no reason other than we believed the US government was mucking up the pacification and putting the military in an impossible position. We had no problems with the concept, and if the US had deployed the extra 150,000 to 350,000 troops required, we'd have fully supported the pacification.

• What is happening now is that the US has achieved all essential objectives. Saddam has been toppled. Democracy exists. Oil is flowing.

• Despite the victory, the US is facing an impossible situation created initially by the Sunnis who were determined to keep power, and when they failed and were willing to cooperate with the US and with the central government, by the Shias. The Shias want revenge on the Sunnis but that is less than half the problem with Iraq. The problem is that the Shias are competing with each other to rule Iraq and both factions are using violence to achieve their aims.

• It is NOT the US responsibility to get the Shias to forgo revenge on the Sunnis and to stop competing with each other. The US presence in Shia Iraq has become a sort of final assurance that the state will not disintegrate and the Shias have taken the opportunity to kill Sunnis and fight with each other. Iraq has a blithering idiot for a Prime Minister who goes around saying how angry he is that the US shot a civilian, even as his co-religionists go around kidnapping and executing civilians - dressed in their official uniforms and using their official vehicles.

• The man needs to declare martial law, he needs to start shooting people caught with guns, on sight, no warning. Oh dear, our bad! Those gangsters with the guns on the street are your men! Of course you can't crack down on violence. But can we ask you to shut your fat face about the alleged crimes American soldiers are committing? If it weren't for those soldiers, do you think for a minute the day would have come when you could announce you would run for prime minister and not be treated to the salutary sight of having the women in your family raped and mutilated in front of you before you and the men in your family are tortured to death?

•  Freedom isn't free, bub. Americans died for you. We're not asking you to give soldiers who have committed crimes a free pass. We're asking you to show some dignity and announce you have asked the Americans to keep you informed and let the law takes its course. What is this nonsense about you don't trust the Americans to conduct an investigation and you have to do it yourself? You wouldn't know what an investigation is if it tripped you and spat on you. Stop these crocodile tears about Haditah. We're not asking you to  stand up and tell the truth: "Those dirty Sunni traitors deserved to die and the Americans did us a favor by killing the scum." That has been your attitude till now. We are asking you to simply stop abusing the Americans.

• The US needs to force the Shias to confront the consequences of their own folly by withdrawing its forces from Shia provinces. The US needs to keep a brigade in Kurdistan to stop the Turks from invading. It needs to boost its force in Sunni territory under threat from outside insurgents, namely Anbar Province. The rest of the troops need to come home.

• As part of this plan, the US would have correct, friendly relations with the Shia part of Iraq ("You tell us what help you need and we'll do our best"), and it would protect the Sunni and Kurdish areas. The use of US money to help Sunnis in other parts of Iraq resettle in their majority provinces - before they are killed or run out - would be more useful. This would cost a fraction of what the US is spending. There is the question of sharing oil revenues, and the US would have to help the Sunnis develop new means of earning money. These are far simpler problems than the one the US is facing now, Shia irresponsibility.

• The totally pathetic US response to what is a very serious problem in Iraq? Self-flagellation at home because US troops have murdered civilians. It is one thing to calmly investigate those soldiers responsible. It is another thing altogether to act as supposedly responsible members of Congress are doing to keep themselves in the limelight. Hearings. Investigations. Recrimination. Ohmigod we Americans are so bad. Message to Congress: we did not elect you to flagellate the country in public and to run down America. It doesn't bother you that your entire institution is a cesspool of corruption. Where's your investigations then? You hold mock hearings and then continue lining your pockets. Are we unjustified in thinking you welcome the wrong acts of a few soldiers because it takes the heat off you?

• As for the press: be warned that while the American peo