Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.

 

 

Staff

Editor & Publisher

Ravi Rikhye  

Concise World Armies 2007

Due to repeated delays in updating the 2007, we are making updates available on an annual subscription basis ($75 E-copy) and adding countries every week. You can order the 2006 version and keep receiving 2007 updates: a 2-in-1 deal.

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List of Countries Now Available

[151 countries/territories]

July additions

 7.1 Barbados, Belgium,  Republic of Korea, Kazakhstan, Jordan//7.2 Austria//7.3 Bosnia-Herzegovina & Srpska, Czech//7.4 Brunei; Bulgaria; Burkina Faso;  Burundi; Cayman Islands; Christmas Island; Cocos (Keeling) Islands; Congo, Republic of; Cook Islands; Coral Sea Islands; Costa Rica; Navassa Island; Norfolk Island//7.5 British Indian Ocean Territory; Benin; Bolivia//7.6 Bouvet Island; British Virgin Islands; Cambodia; Clipperton Island; Colombia//7.7 CAR; Chad; Ivory Coast//7.8 Dominica; Dominican Republic; Djibouti; Ecuador; Ethiopia//7.9 Eritrea, Estonia//7.11 Uzbekistan//7.13 Falklands (Malvinas), South Georgia & Sandwich Islands; Fiji; French Polynesia//7.14 New Caledonia; Wallis & Fortuna//7.15 Nicaragua; Oman//7.16 Palestine National Authority - West Bank; Palestine National Authority - Gaza//7.19 Ghana//7.20 Gabon; Gambia//7.25 Argentina; Poland

RETURN TO MAIN

 

Condensed World Armies  Condensed World Paramilitary Forces 2006

Analysis

WE BRING YOU THE WORLD ©

Published on an ad hoc basis

 

 Declassified Gulf II Planning Documents

Report on US Army readiness March 2007 [Thanks Joseph Stefula]

 

 

Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.

 

0230 GMT December 31, 2007

 

  • Sri Lanka Adopts Military Solution To LTTE Problem Sri Lanka forces continue an offensive against rebel LTTE positions. The Army chief and government officials appear to have taken the position - correctly, in our view - that no negotiated settlement is possible with the LTTE after more than two decades of failed attempts. The only thing the rebel leaders seem to understand is force. The Army chief says his objective is to kill 10 insurgents a day till the hard core of 3000 is eliminated.

  • We do not mean to imply the government has given up on political action. It is simply that this time the government to determined to negotiate from a very strong hand and that means sustained military action.

  • On his part, the rebel leader says no talks are now possible since the Sri Lankans killed his political head in an air strike. These are simply excuses because he does not, in our opinion, intend to give up as long as he has the slightest chance of continuing his insurgency.

  • Incidentally, we all tend to think of suicide bombing as an Islamic fundamentalist tactic. The Sri Lanka insurgents were actually the first to use it as a standard tactic, including the extra reprehensible use of women as bombers.

  • That the LTTE insurgents are some of the toughest fighters in the world is indisputable. They have been helped by the equally indisputable incompetence of Sri Lanka's military/political leadership.

  • A global crackdown on the LTTE's drug/arms smuggling has, however, weakened the rebels. They are today regarded less as freedom fighters and more as terrorists. And though - again in our opinion - it is too early to tell if the government has finally gotten itself together sufficiently to deal a lasting and crippling blow to the LTTE.

  • Sudan Says Dafur Rebels and Chad Forces Open Offensive Chad says it has acted only to push Sudan-backed fighters out of its territory and that it is stopped at the Sudan/Dafur frontier.

  • BBC says fighting began Friday and that the UN has withdrawn humanitarian staff from two border towns.

  • 19-Year Is Named Heir To Mrs. Bhutto's Political Party Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is to lead the Pakistan People's Party with his father as as regent while he returns to England to complete his studies. Party officials say Mrs. Bhutto's will designated her husband as her successor, but with the party's endorsement he decided to nominate the son.

  • Meanwhile, while violence continues in Pakistan, there is no more talk of chaos and civil war. Perhaps 50-60 people have been killed, which is an absolutely insignificant figure.

  • The focus now seems to be if elections will be postponed. The Pakistan government's first inclination is to hold them on time January 8th. The two main opposition parties seem prepared to now stick to that date, but President Musharraf's party wants a delay. Presumably they want to reduce the effect of a sympathy vote on Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's party.
    We are wondering since Mrs. Bhutto broke her agreement to work with President Musharraf if the president will stick to his part, amnesty for past offenses. The promise was made to Mrs. Bhutto and covered her husband, but now she has gone, and in any case she did not keep her part of the agreement, it is unclear how the President/government view the matter.

  • The mechanism to revoke immunity is simple. A private citizen challenges the grant of amnesty in court; the court - now stacked with loyalists - says "yes, yes, it was illegal", and Bam! Mr. Zardari is back in jail or in exile. There will be people in his own party who would prefer that.

  • From Michael Epstein I agree that the unbalance in population is responsible for much of the social and political problems in today's world, among other issues. Is it an issue that can be solved by the World during the 21st century? Or is it something that will be an ongoing issue for the next few centuries, possibly even destroying Mankind in the end?

  • Editor's reply Hope is there, for sure. India has reduced its fertility rate from 6 on 1955 to 3 today. It is on track to reduce it to 2.2, replacement rate, by 2020. India has done this without any coercion - the ad hoc and irrational efforts during the Emergency of 1975-77 being an obvious, but thankfully short-lived, exception. if India, which has the second-largest population in the world, and which to some extent is still a functioning anarchy, can achieve this, so can other nations. In India the key factors were education, particularly women's education, and better health care. Income increases played a smaller part.

  • The problems are two. First, there is no way in which India can escape a population of 1.6-billion before hitting replacement rate because there are hundreds of millions of youngsters that will grow up and have children of their own. This probably applies to many other countries as well. Iran, for example, went from a rate of 7 in 1986 to an expected 2 in 2010 http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update4ss.htm and this is a truly remarkable drop

  • Second, while we are not "Club of Rome" types, common sense says that there is no way 3-billion Indians/Chinese and 2-billion other nationalities, are going to have an OCED standard of living on the present model of what constitutes the good life. The US, for example, has about 0.8 motor vehicles per capita. The average American house is now in excess of 200 square meters. Let's not even try and calculate how many bottles of water or Starbucks Americans drink (though we do recall being told the Italians are the bottled water champs).

 

0230 GMT December 30, 2007

 

Has Washington Learned Its Lesson In Pakistan?

  • Faster than Orbat.com believed possible, US policy in Pakistan has collapsed - again. The first time was when Pakistan resumed arming/equipping/training the Taliban, who now control most of Afghanistan if you count the areas where its writ runs by night as well as by day. The second time was when Mrs. Bhutto was murdered.

  • We wonder what gave the US the right to decide that Mrs. Bhutto should lead the Pakistan people. We didn't hear anything about the Pakistan people having the right to chose Nawaz-i-Sharif, who also was in exile, and who also was twice prime minister. We didn't hear the US working to strike a deal between him and President Musharraf as it did for Mrs. Bhutto. We didn't hear the US demanding assurances from the Pakistan government that Nawaz-i-Sharif's security be assured. In fact, so little concern has been shown for Pakistan's other civilian leader that outsiders must wonder if Washington even knows that the man exists.

  • But you see, none of this was important. Washington chose its viceroy to rule Pakistan, and everyone else, including Nawaz, simply had to lump it.

  • On what basis did Washington chose Mrs. Bhutto? You will be told it was on the basis that she was the hope for democracy in Pakistan. Let us for the moment ignore the inconvenient truth that it is not for Washington to decide what form of government Pakistan should have. Let us also for the moment ignore the inconvenient truth that Mrs. Bhutto would have been an exceedingly weak leader, able neither to control the military, nor Pakistan's dominant feudal interests - to which she belonged, heart and soul, no democrat she - and nor would she have had the slightest impact on the fundamentalists. These realities are such they make Washington's little brain hurt, so Washington ignored them, much as it ignores anything that doesn't fit in with its preconceived notions, and which just might be the reason this great and wonderful country is going down the flush right after it reached its zenith as global leader.

  • The reason Mrs. Bhutto was chosen is very simple. She was a woman, she was good looking, she was charming, she spoke excellent English, she was educated at Oxford and Harvard, and - very important - she understood how to lobby Washington. Nawaz, simple country bumpkin that he is wouldn't have the first idea of how to get Washington's support.

  • In other words, she was the closest thing to a brown American as was possible for any Pakistani leader. Of course, those who really knew her - as opposed to the facade she presented to her western admirers - know she was anything but American. Which American, for example, makes a will in which s/he designates who is to head the party after her/him? After all, the party should not be Mrs. Bhutto's personal property to will. But this being South Asia, not America, of course it is hers to will.

  • Strangely, it didn't seem to bother either Washington or her admirers that her administrations were thoroughly suffused in corruption or that she may have at the very least condoned the murder of her brother, who came to oppose her, by her husbands goons. When Sam, that ancient roue, falls in love with a young woman, little blemishes like that don't seem to worry him as prospective bridegroom.

  • Okay, enough of the harangue. The point is simple: has Washington learned its lesson re. Pakistan?

  • The answer is no. Washington's reaction to failure at the hands of cruel reality is, these days, not to pull back, but to double the stakes while following the same failed strategy.

  • What Washington will now do is to deal directly with the Pakistan Army and get it to replace Musharraf - its old strategy that failed, before it hit upon the "brilliant" idea of sending Mrs. Bhutto back to Pakistan.

  • This strategy too will fail, again,  for reasons we have mentioned before. Pakistan is in a very difficult state right now. Neither the Praetorian Guard - the nine corps commanders who actually lead the troops, nor the GHQ generals who serve as the frontmen for the corps commanders, have the slightest interest in openly leading Pakistan. They could have thrown President Musharraf at any time, but Washington failed to get them to make the change because they are quite happy to have a compliant President Musharraf as head of state. If things go badly - as they will - President Musharraf gets the blame. If they go well, then the commanders might decide to back this candidate or that candidate from among the GHQ generals for president and effect a regime change. This won't happen for five years because no frontman for the army as loyal as President Musharraf is available. He is one of them, his entire existence, indeed, his very life, is dependent on his doing what they want. Why change him, then?

  • Someone may well ask: "Wait a minute, what business does Washington have treating directly with Pakistani generals and trying to get them to do its will? Isn't Pakistan a sovereign country? Don't Washington's actions constitute the worst kind of interference?"

  • Well, yes. But you see, Washington believes Pakistan is an American colony. It has never treated Pakistan as a sovereign state, as a partner. Pakistan's abject capitulation to Washington's ultimatums after 9/11 - cooperate or we put you back into the Stone Age - served only to confirm, in Washington's mind, that it was master and Pakistan servant.

  • Too bad, Washington, that you didn't understand the Pakistani mindset. Which is to go "Ji, hazoor" - loosely translated as "Yes, master", and continue exactly as they were doing earlier. You'd think that in 50 years of dealing with Pakistani generals Washington would by now have their number. But no. That it might be going about things the wrong way never occurs to Washington because it is dealing with brown men who, Washington demands, should know their place.

  • When some members of the Washington elite insist that President Musharraf is the only option American has, they are closer to the truth than perhaps even they know. President Musharraf may be the last of five decades of Pakistani generals who is willing to tug the forelock and shuffle the feet.

  • The new generation of Pakistani generals are quite different. They are quite capable of telling American to stuff it, and this is particularly true of General Kiyani, the new chief. This doesn't mean General Kiyani and others like him won't work with Washington if it is to their interest. It does mean they will not sell Pakistan down the river for the proverbial 12 pieces of American silver. The truth is no Pakistani general has ever been willing to do that. But at least they could pretend they were bought, to keep America happy. This new lot will not even pretend.

  • We leave this polemic with two thoughts for America and for India.

  • First, has anyone bothered working out the consequences if tomorrow PRC tells Pakistan: "the Americans give you $2-billion a year and rob you of your dignity. Now their star is falling. We'll give you $2-billion a year and respect. Just kick the Americans out." Is this going to happen in 2008? Unlikely. But every year from now, as China grows in power and is better able to clear America off its periphery, this is going to become more likely till it becomes a certainty.

  • Second, has anyone bothered working out the consequences if it occurs to the Pakistanis that logically the only way they can regain their self-respect, and have any chance of defeating India, is to turn fundamentalist?

  • Think about that, folks - if your head doesn't hurt too much, poor things.

 

0230 GMT December 29, 2007

  • Why Did Mrs. Bhutto's Husband Forbid An Autopsy? We are told that it is because Islam forbids desecration of a body. But Mrs. Bhutto was the victim of a crime, whether she was shot, hit by shrapnel, or was felled by the bomb's blast and hit her head against a lever of her car's sunroof. Are we to believe that autopsies of crime victims are forbidden in Islamic countries?

  • Our point is this: doubtless the Pakistan Government has a version of Mrs. Bhutto's death it wants put out to suit itself. But Mrs. Bhutto's supporters also have their own preferred narrative, that she was killed at the very least because the Government failed to provide her security and possibly because the Government wanted her dead.

  • The government, at least, has produced an x-ray of her skull that shows two deep indentations that look caused by a blunt object or objects. Mrs. Bhutto's followers have produced nothing, except  "I myself saw this or saw that".

  • Contrawise, readers can ask "why did the Government release Mrs. Bhutto's body to her family/supporters without ordering an autopsy?" Believe it or not, there is a perfectly rational explanation, but you have to be familiar with South Asia to appreciate it. First, the body was never in the custody of the Government. Mrs. Bhutto was rushed to hospital by her followers, they surrounded it at all times. Second, from all the evidence available, top doctors at the hospital did a quick examination and declared her dead, and the body was taken away by her followers.

  • But why did the doctors not say: "Wait a minute, there has to be a police investigation, the body cannot be removed"? Well, would anyone have listened to them? As it is Mrs. Bhutto's supporters were smashing doors and such at the hospital, it goes without saying that her supporters would have beat up the doctors and taken the body, saying the murderous government would not be allowed to get its hands on her and so on.

  • Okay, but why did the police immediately not get reinforcements to the hospital? Pakistan, like most third world countries, has a weak police presence when it comes to criminal investigation. As is the case for most of the third world, police is trained primarily for mob control. Moreover, this was not some random citizen murdered in the street, this was one of Pakistan's top leaders. Normal police criminal investigation procedure is even less applicable. We are certain the last thing on the mind of the police was "we'd better get to the hospital with 1000 reinforcements and make sure proper police procedure is followed while fighting a minor war with Mrs. Bhutto's supporters."

  • Could Better Security Have Saved Mrs. Bhutto? A lot of people in Washington who are angrily denouncing the Pakistan Government's failure to provide adequate security to Mrs. Bhutto are clueless about what they are saying.

  • Security is not a matter of surrounding a leader with phalanxes of police. The leader has to agree to enormous restrictions on her/his freedom of movement. You can see from any number of photographs/video of Mrs. Bhutto's rallies that they are complete chaos. She is surrounded at all times by tens of thousands of people. The possibility of controlling access to her immediate vicinity simply does not arise. Moreover, she refused restrictions on her access to the people. The Pakistan Government explained to her what was needed to assure her security and she said no - because, as we've said several times - she believed the government was using her security as an excuse to isolate her from her followers.

  • Look, people, at the end of her rally she jumps into her car and then stands up through the sunroof to wave to people. She could have been shot or bombed at anytime prior, but in this particular case had she been fully inside the car, she could have survived. Moreover, as far as we know, the car was not a special armored vehicle, but an ordinary vehicle belonging to her friend and political partner Mrs. Sherry Rehman.

  • We have some personal knowledge of the security that was given to the Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. Before he left his residence, at least two dummy convoys of cars exactly like the ones in his real convoy would take off at high speed in different directions. His real convoy consisted of a number of identical cars with dark windows, so there was no way of telling in which car he was, even if you got the real convoy. His route was never known to anyone outside his closest security advisors.

  • He was surrounded at all time by - if we recall right - something like five layers of security. Something like 3-500 security personnel were deployed around his house alone, 24/7.

  • The close cordon was maintained by bodyguards and by army commandos specially trained for the job. These gentlemen kept their assault rifles off-safety and with their fingers on triggers at all times when they were around Mr. Gandhi. They spent an unbelievable amount of time training and shooting, firing off thousands of rounds annually to keep them sharp. They were under orders to shoot anyone who presented any threat, no questions asked.

  • This was just for when he went to office, perhaps 3-4 kilometers from his house.

  • In public rallies he appeared only behind bullet proof glass. A wide, empty gap was kept between him and the first row of the public. Anyone getting into the gap from the crowd would have been shot down. The location of his podium was carefully selected and all vulnerable points guarded by layers of security.

  • In short, Mr. Gandhi lived in a heavily protected cocoon. And of course, when he was no longer Prime Minister and he went back to mingling with his supporters and pressing the flesh, a suicide bomber got him even though as ex-Prime Minister and head of the then second most important political party he was still given protection no ordinary very important person could imagine.

  • Compare, contrast what we have said above with the way Mrs. Bhutto conducted her rallies.

 

 

0230 GMT December 28, 2007

 

  • Al-Qaeda Takes Credit For Mrs. Bhutto's Assassination says the Long War Journal  http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/12/al_qaeda_takes_credi.php The story is complicated, so we suggest you read it for yourself.

  • Mrs. Benazir Bhutto Was Assassinated yesterday at a political rally at Rawalpindi in Pakistan, agencies report. Rawalpindi is the old city adjacent to modern Islamabad. A suicide bomber on a motorcycle shot her before blowing himself up along with 20+ others, according to BBC which gives the police as one source.

  • Mrs. Bhutto had just finished a speech and gotten into her car. she stood up through an opening in the roof. Her convoy was leaving the meeting place when she was attacked [BBC].

  • Rioting erupted in many Pakistan cities with 100 cars burned in Karachi and with attacks on gas stations plus other establishments. Trains have also been attacked.

  • In our opinion, statements such as those made by Times London that her killing has triggered fears of a civil war are vast exaggerations. So are reports that Pakistan has been plunged into chaos. While undoubtedly there will be much more action by Mrs. Bhutto's supporters, we foresee that the situation will be quickly brought under control, if neccessary after the declaration of yet another emergency.

  • We remind readers we had mentioned that immediately after her return from exile we were told that she was targeted and it was just a matter of time before she was killed.

  • The Pakistan Government had offered her the same level of security cover given to the President after a first attempt on her life as she drove from Karachi International Airport to her home as she returned from exile. We'd mentioned that her problem with the offer was she saw it as a cynical move by the Government to isolate her from her followers because the security required very tight restrictions on who she met and where.

  • In South Asia the mass rally, with hundreds of thousands of people attending and minimal protection for the politician, is a tradition that cannot be easily done away with.

  • US/Iraq Forces Kill 11 Special Groups Operatives In Al-Kut The men belonged to a breakaway faction of al-Sadr's Mahadi Army. As earlier, we caution readers on this matter of "breakaway groups". There is no telling if they really are not under al-Sadr's command, or if he has only ostensibly distanced himself for public relations reasons.

  • Long War Journal, a reliable independent media source on Iraq in particular and the GWOT in general, has the story as well as a detailed explanation of Iran's setup to infiltrate money, arms, and trainers to a number of groups in Iraq. Please read at http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/12/iraq_11_iranian_spec.php

  • Al-Sadr We also remind readers al-Sadr's order to his forces to ceasefire, which has led to a big drop in Iraq violence, is unlikely to represent a change of heart. Al-Sadr has repeatedly learned the cost of taking on the Americans. Plus the Americans have learned a few things and have been waging a relentless low-level war against him while boosting him in public as a responsible person who will help stabilize Iraq. Al-Sadr cannot say a thing because each time the US takes out a leader or a cell, it blandly says "this was a renegade group out of al-Sadr's control." Very clever indeed.

  • But from what we hear, he is quiet only because he understands US domestic opposition to the war is now intense. He is laying low all the better to get the Americans to declare victory and leave. We had a good laugh the other day at some report or the other that said he had decided to be a religious leader only, like his father, and was renouncing violence. He has renounced violence in Baghdad because he has to contend with nine American brigades. Anyone would renounce violence in the face of 2 1/2 American divisions eager to get into a real fight.

  • But in the south, the other battleground, he is busy fighting anyone who would deny him supremacy, be they Shia or Sunni. He has taken a few hard blows at the hands of the Najaf Shias. Nonetheless, he has the biggest force in Iraq under his command outside the Government and Kurdish Peshmerga, and he is not going anywhere.

  • From James Phillips In your piece on the Canadian Minister of Defence's comments about Iran and IEDs, you said, "We mention this because US intelligence on just about anything to do with Iran's activities is pretty much discredited. US is seen as twisting intel data for political gain. If Canada is also saying Iran is arming the Taliban, we need to take these reports more seriously."

  • Unfortunately, the Canadian government has been loath to invest in intelligence assets of its own and relies heavily on its allies (i.e. the United States) for almost all strategic intelligence. Chances are that the information on which Minister Mackay based his comments came from the same US intelligence assets that you described as "pretty much discredited".

  • Editor's Comment We are aware of Canadian intel's problem and had, in fact, long ago offered the Canadians that we'd provide them all the lower-level intel from the Iran plus South Asia theatres of the GWOT that they could use. This would have permitted them to free up their limited assets for higher level work. Even the Canadians wouldn't take us seriously, and that was a new low for us. The Editor may not have helped our case by giving his unasked for opinion that the higher level intel work generally produced worthless results, but was a game that countries felt compelled to play. This is nothing but the demonstrated truth, but if you say things like that, your potential clients think you're a nutcase. The best intel value comes from lower level work. We'll discuss one of these days why we say that.

 

Update 1530 GMT

0230 GMT December 27, 2007

 

  • 1530 GMT Mrs. Benazir Bhutto Assassinated at a political rally at Rawalpindi in Pakistan, agencies report. Rawalpindi is the old city adjacent to modern Islamabad. A suicide bomber on a motorcycle shot her before blowing himself up along with 14 others, according to BBC which gives the police as one source.

  • We remind readers we had mentioned that immediately after her return from exile we were told that she was targeted and it was just a matter of time before she was killed.

  • The Pakistan Government had offered her the same level of security cover given to the President after a first attempt on her life as she drove from Karachi International Airport to her home as she returned from exile. We'd mentioned that her problem with the offer was she saw it as a cynical move by the Government to isolate her from her followers because the security required very tight restrictions on who she met and where.

  • In South Asia the mass rally, with hundreds of thousands of people attending and minimal protection for the politician, is a tradition that cannot be easily done away with.

  • Unlike many in the west, we were not her fans. We saw her as arrogant, immature, unprincipled, inefficient and corrupt. She was a mirror image of India's Rajiv Gandhi with the exception she was very intelligent and he was a duffer.

  • Nonetheless, as far as we know, she personally never ordered anyone's death, nor was she a dictator or an authoritarian. As such her opponents are wrong to have killed her.

  • Factional Fighting In Pakistan's Kurram Agency in the North West Frontier Agency over the last 4 days has resulted in 47 killed, including many civilians, says Jang of Pakistan. It's never easy to learn from Pakistani media what's really going on, but a reading of the Frontier Post and Dawn suggests that Taliban from South Waziristan are seeking to extend their influence in Kurram, and are attacking local tribes. Never a dull moment in the Frontier Province.

  • Canadian Defense Minister Says Iran Arming Taliban 73 Canadians have been killed since 2002, mainly in IED attacks. Iran is a major source for Taliban IEDs he says.

  • We mention this because US intelligence on just about anything to do with Iran's activities is pretty much discredited. US is seen as twisting intel data for political gain. If Canada is also saying Iran is arming the Taliban, we need to take these reports more seriously.

  • Of course, for Iran to help the Taliban is natural and people who say "oh, Iranians are Shia and Taliban are Sunni so Iran cannot be helping" need to get a grip. National imperatives overshadow sectarian considerations. Iran has been surrounded by the US, and helping America's enemies is one way for Teheran to hit back. That the Taliban are Sunnis is irrelevant to Iran in this particular war.

  • Water in Pakistan: Just another example of the need to be careful with statistics This figure caught our eye: In 1951, Pakistan's availability of water per capita was 5600 cubic meters/year. By 2012 this is expected to drop to 1000 cm/year says Jang.

  •  In 1951, Pakistan's population was 34-million. Since that time the population has increased by 5 times. We are not 100% sure of our figures, but believe the rate of growth has come down from 3.6% annually, the high point, to about 2.6% now. That means by 2012 the population will be about 185-million. So things look bleak.

  • Then we decided to check the US stats. according to World Bank figures http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen01/gen01629.htm in 2000 the US used 1500 cm/year of water per capita, for all purposes including domestic, commercial, industrial and agricultural. US uses much more water than Europe. So perhaps the problem in Pakistan is efficiency of use. Even in 2012 Pakistan should have as much water per capita available as Europe uses.

  • Then we checked figures for per capita availability for the US: at least 7000 cm per capita is available http://www.maps.com/ref_map.aspx?pid=12872 So perhaps there is a problem, insofar as there can be a big difference between theoretical availability and actual availability.

  • People keep saying global warming is the greatest threat mankind faces We're not sure it isn't overpopulation. For example, how is the US going to manage with a population of 700-million in 2100? [We're being generous with the illegal immigration official US population growth rate is .9%, population doubles every 80 years. But the actual rate is higher because of illegal immigration. So we're assuming illegals will add only .1% growth.]

  • It's also worth investigating the relationship, if any, between massive population growth in poorer countries and terror. Pakistan's population is now doubling every 35 years or so; because of the immense backlog of under-18s waiting to get married and have kids, a doubling by 2040 seems inevitable. That will make 320-million people. Think about the problems that will cause.

  • Walter E. Wallis On US Army's Buildup In response to our estimate that of the 65,000 troops to be added to the regular army by 2011-13 20,000 will go into combat brigades and the rest into supporting units of various kinds, Mr. wallis had this to say: "The tail will grow? Put the money into tooth and let Haliburton and others bid the support rolls. I want not to tie us to foreign bases."

 

0230 GMT December 26, 2007

  • Russia Tests RS-24 ICBM, New SLBM Both were fired at a target in the Kamchatka Peninsula. The ICBM flew 7000-kms; the SLBM was launched from the Barents Sea.

  • Russia says the RS-24 carries at least 3 warheads capable of penetrating any ABM defense.

  • Good for you, Russia. Any chance you can stop whining about the US ABM deployment to Central Europe since its obviously ineffective against your new missile, at least according to your reckoning?

  • New US Army Brigades At reader Afan Khan's request we tracked down plans for the new US Army brigades. With the exception one brigade activating at Ft. Bliss, TX in 2009, the remainder are slated for 2011, with one at Ft. Carson, two at Ft. Stewart, and another at Ft. Bliss.

  • So it will basically ten years after 9/11 that the US Army will be expanded. For the five brigades, totaling about 20,000 troops, the US Army will add another 45,000 in combat support and service units.

  • This must be the smallest, slowest, most pathetic buildup undertaken by a major power in history. We hope it makes sense to someone, because it sure doesn't make sense to us. With 46 brigades in the force, the US Army will be able to deploy 15 overseas at a time. This is inadequate for today; surely it is not possible to predict with confidence what the requirements for 2011 will be.

  • More Burundi Troops In Somalia Another 100 arrived yesterday. Burundi will deploy two infantry battalions of 850 troops each plus HQ and support units for a total of ~1900.

  • Turkey At It Again It claims it has killed "hundreds" of insurgents while striking 200 targets. It says on December 16 alone 175 insurgents were killed. More air strikes were reported yesterday.

  • Since the Iraqi Kurds say 10 civilians have been killed, we offer these possibilities: (a) Iraqi Kurds are lying; (b) Turkish Air Force cannot count; (c) At the instant they cross the Iraq border, Turkish strike aircraft are diverted into an alternate universe thanks to a hot new toy developed by Atari Corp. for Christmas 2008. The prototype was seized by the CIA using a new secret law that permits the Government to appropriate toys in the national interest. In this alternate universe, cabbages are called "PPK rebels". (4) Turkish Government is lying through its teeth to appease its people who are demanding retaliation and we are witnessing one of the biggest cons of recent years.

  • This just in: while the CIA was testing the toy, it accidentally aimed the toy at Washington, DC. The nation's capital is now located in hyperspace at a locality identified only as "La La Land". Since the CIA is located at Langley, Virginia - or at least says it is - it is quite safe. Given the increasingly bad blood between the CIA and the Administration, informed sources tell the Washington Post the accident was really an "accident" (think Austin Powers").

  • This also just in: the rest of the US has as yet to notice that its Government is missing. when informed of the disaster, Jane Splatzinger, 9, of Fromage, Michigan told NBC news: "I had noticed that for the first time since Ronald Reagan, the American government was actually not b*gg*ering things up. I hope there are no plans to return Washington, DC to our universe anytime soon."

  • From Anthony E. Paulsen III: A California Christmas My father-in-law sent this from Sacramento:

  • To My Democrat Friends Please accept with no obligation, implied or explicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low-stress, non-addictive, gender-neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasion and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all. I also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2008, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make America great. Not to imply that America is necessarily greater than any other country nor the only America in the Western Hemisphere. Also, this wish is made without regard to the race, creed, color, age, physical ability, religious faith or sexual preference of the wishee.

  • To My Republican Friends: Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

  • From Flymike On Israel-in-America There are no easy solutions to this problem. More Jews live in America than in Israel so what you propose is already in effect. Overall, hasn't the region seen 2000-years of  ongoing conflict? Now the Muslim/Arabs are involved, and they seem even more intolerant, the old religion/politics combined and sometimes taken to extremes.

 

0230 GMT December 25, 2007

 

  • Iraqi Kurds Warn Turkey to stop its air attacks. Kurdistan's president denounced the raids while standing next to the Iraqi president, who happens to be Kurdish. The Kurds say the Turks have been hitting civilian areas where no insurgents are to be found. They say 10 civilians have been killed and 2000 civilians have had to flee their homes.

  • Italians Issue 146 Warrants Against Latin American Officials most of whom seem to be retired, and at least six of whom are dead. The warrants arise from complaints in Italian courts by Latin Americans who were affected by Operation Condor, a six-nation informal alliance that in the 1970s-1980s tracked down and assassinated left-wing political opponents.

  • Seems to us the Italians are having a competition with the Spanish as to who can go further in taking up human rights cases that have nothing to do with them.

  • Also seems to us just a matter of time before warrants start going out for US officials for the many American interventions all over the world. So far the US has managed to squash efforts by a couple of individual European judges to indict US officials, including Mr. Donald Rumsfeld. We honestly wouldn't count on the US managing to quash for much longer. And there is no statute of limitations on murder - charges could be brought 10, 20, 30, 40 years from now.

  • IDF Did Not Kill Muhammad Al-Doura We must in all fairness carry this story and you can read it for yourself at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=1198517197778&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

  • Muhammad was the little Palestine boy made iconic as a symbol of Israel brutality/repression. He is the boy who we see crouched behind a barrel with his father while the IDF engages in firing, and who, AFP told us with plenty of pictures and video footage, is killed by IDF shots. The story/images undoubtedly fueled Palestinian fury during the Intifada and were used by the Palestinians to justify their attacks on Israeli civilians.

  • Turns out the cameraman who took the images was lying to the AFP journalist who broke the "story", and further turns out the AFP journalist knew the cameraman was lying.

  • The film was shown in court and though the court ordered all 27 minutes to be shown unedited, the AFP journo showed an edited 18 minutes. Problem was, whoever did the editing blew the job, because right at the end of the film you can see Muhammad well and alive whereas the journo declared him killed.

  • There are plenty of real Israeli atrocities committed against the Palestinians, and the latter have plenty of atrocities committed against Israeli civilians. There is no need to make up atrocities.

  • Further, whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel-in-Palestine, Israeli attacks on civilians are usually committed enpassant: the IDF is not deliberately aiming for civilians. We realize the last 72-hours of the 2006 Lebanon War may be a case where civilians were deliberately targeted. But while that is being worked out, our generalization holds. The Palestinians, on the other hand, do target Israeli civilians.

  • We appreciate that the Palestinians, as the far weaker party, have fewer good options available to resist the Israelis. Nonetheless, we believe any action against civilians, no matter what the provocation, is wrong. No one advances their cause by targeting civilians. When anyone speaks of why Israel is wrong to occupy Palestine, they invoke justice, morality, right-and-wrong. All the more reason for Palestinians to stay on the side of right.

  • From Michael Epstein  I wanted to comment on the issue of taking millions of refugees from the Middle East and resettling them in America. In my opinion nothing would be more disastrous then to see any people, no matter how well educated and productive they are, taken from their homelands and forced to live in America. The unfortunate fact is that both sides, Israeli and Palestinians alike, have valid claims to the land that they live on. To ask either one to leave would be a remarkable act of gall for the International Community in general and America in particular, and would destroy any credibility the West has in negotiating with the rest of the world. In a less civilized (but more honest) age, both sides would have been more or less allowed to fight each other until one was destroyed, as Rome did upon Carthage, settling the issue definitively. As things stand now, I fear that the U.S. is only delaying a major regional war by spending political capital that it cannot afford to squander.

  • Just for the sake of argument, say we Americans did take in one side to resolve the conflict. How would we deal with them? Would we give them autonomy within the U.S. in a similar fashion to the Native Americans? Allow them to practice laws that directly go against the Constitution? Or simply force them to assimilate as a consequence of lost nationhood? None of those solutions seem particularly desirable.

  • I also must take issue with your comment about how America has "absorbed" 40 million (give or take) Latin American migrants in the last few years. We have not absorbed them at all, no nation no matter how large and developed could. To take in all at once another five million people (give or take) from yet another alien culture would undo us entirely. Immigration, like most things, is a double-edged sword. But I digress, that is a debate for another time.

  • From Afan Khan I think you could explain to us why despite being in a war for almost 5 years, the US Army still has the same authorized strength that it had on Sept 10 2001 or even March 18th 2003? I am very surprised that the army has not increased its strength, as outside forces routinely do during wartime.

  • How hard can it  be for the US to raise two new divisions fairly quickly, they have most of the equipment necessary available in storage; not like Iraq is  the epitome of high tech war, and calling up of reservists.  Right now everybody and his maiden aunt knows that once the "surge" brigades are withdrawn (as they inevitably have to be) the situation will return to the past. If there were additional forces available it would not be the case. Even if the increase did not occur in '03, certainly it should have when the surge strategy was decided on, and its been a year, so plenty of time to raise new forces.

  • Editor's Comment When a nation starts relying on hope rather than facing realities, it is on the way downhill. So it is with the US. Every US strategy in Iraq, and we must be on the sixth or seventh iteration by now, has relied on hope that things will turn out well. The Surge is no different.

  • My impression is that the Administration realizes perfectly well the war cannot be won as it is being fought. Mr. Bush has a single point agenda, which is to leave the problem to his successor and then blame the successor for failure. That this is cynical beyond words and a crime against the armed forces and the people is completely irrelevant to the Administration.

  • As for the Democrats, they too are sold out. They will not take a principled stand and withdraw, nor will they take a principled stand and raise the additional divisions needed for the GWOT.

  • The armed forces will continue to pay the price of their leaders' cupidity. In any other country, the armed forces would have revolted by now and told the government to go do unpleasant things to itself. This being America - and this may seem a paradox to anyone who is not familiar with the American military - you can 100% rely on the military's loyalty to the degenerate idiots of all political shades who run the country just because they wrap themselves in the flag. Since the Democrats also don't want to be known for "losing Iraq", we can fairly much expect that the US will be in Iraq in substantial force for at least the next 8 years.
     

 

0230 GMT December 24, 2007

 

News

  • Burundi Troops Arrive In Somalia At long last other African Union troops have arrived in Somalia. So far only Uganda has sent troops, 1600 in all. An advance guard of 100 Burundi troops has reached Mogadishu; 1700 more troops will follow.

  • BBC says that so far because of the shortage of troops, the AU force has been able to guard the airport/seaport, the presidential palace, and provide VIP security. Hopefully the addition of the Burundi troops will permit deployment for security of civilians and, equally important, encourage other AU nations to bring the total to the authorized 8,000.

  • Ivory Coast: Another Small Ray Of Hope At long last, at least a year behind schedule and five years since the Ivory Coast civil war erupted, the government forces (south) and rebels (north) vacated positions in the UN patrolled buffer zone and prepared to disarm. BBC says 5,000 government and 33,000 rebel soldiers are to be disarmed. There is apprehension and skepticism that disarmament will really begin and will be successful, but at least some progress is being made in ending at least one of Africa's interminable wars.

  • Kurds Say Turkey Carries Out More Air Strikes yesterday over a 3-hour period. They say no casualties resulted.

  • Annapolis Readers will recall we did not bother commenting on this "momentous" and "historic" meeting of Israel and Palestine under American aegis at the Maryland city which is the state capital and is better known as the home of the US Naval Academy. Our reasoning was this was just another waste of time because sooner or later either the Palestine side would do something stupidly provocative or the Israelis would.

  • Frankly, we'd put our money on the Palestinians being stupid soon. We aren't often wrong, but we were wrong this time, because its the Israelis have made the provocation.

  • They've announced construction of an additional 700 homes in East Jerusalem. Israel has at various times promised to freeze new settlements, but of course it never does - nor can it, because as far as at least half its Jewish citizens are concerned, Palestine is their homeland and Jerusalem is even more than many other places in Palestine theirs.

  • The Palestinians say Israel has again broken its word on settlements, and these particular ones will make it even harder for them to get access to East Jerusalem, which is to be their capital in a final agreement.

  • The Israelis - good lawyers all - say these settlements were planned for the last 7 years and in any case the freeze does not apply to East Jerusalem. Of course they were planned for the last 7 years - we're surprised the Israelis didn't say for the last 30 years. Everyone has plans, and we're sure there is no part of Palestine that Israel does not have a plan, made long ago, to expand into. As for the freeze not applying: why do the Palestinians think they can outsmart the Israelis in any agreement? Why didn't they at Annapolis get out a 1:10,000 map of Palestine and make the Israelis sign on each hectare of land "we aren't going to put up settlements here"?

  • Nothing less would have worked, and by the way, even that would not have worked because the Israelis would have used the excuse of some Palestine bad behavior or the other to say "that agreement is no longer valid".

  • Someone commented sarcastically on our idea that Israel should be recreated in America. "Why not recreate Palestine," this person asked.

  • We'd rather have 5-million Jews migrate to the US because they are westernized and highly educated. Plus there would be more political support for a recreation to save the Jews than there would be to provide a homeland for the Palestinians.

  • But sure, if you think it would work, why not an American homeland for the Palestinians? They are the smartest of all Arab peoples. They'd be a big asset too. Would this stop the Arabs from fighting to the last Palestinian in their war against Israel? If it would, by all means bring over the Palestinians.

  • After all, the US has absorbed something like 40-million Latin Americans over the last two years, upto half of them illegals. if the Latins are an asset to America, legals and illegals alike, why not bring over 3-million Palestinians if that ends the threat of a second holocaust visited on the Jewish people?

 

Aside: Circuit City And What's Wrong With American Business &

Why Americans Drive So Many Miles

 

  • Earlier this year the electronics chain Circuit City fired 3000 of its most experienced sales staff to save money. To show what gems they were, the management "allowed" fired staff to reapply for their jobs at substantially lower wages.

  • Well, at the time there was a lot of adverse comment.  Firing your most experienced people is akin to suicide because Circuit City does not have a monopoly or even dominance in consumer electronics. So service is everything.

  • To no one's surprise, Circuit City has been losing money. Top management people have been abandoning ship in the matter of rats. The CEO's response? Fat retention bonuses to keep key people from skipping.

  • When it was suggested the company might do better to look after its sales staff, the CEO said he needs to keep his hand-pocked management team together.

  • So the question arises, for what? So they can come up with more stupid ideas?

  • Yesterday the editor made a Circuit City foray to pick up a gift. He hates CC because the stores are filthy, and salespeople are not to be found - this is before the 3000 most experienced were fired, and the cashiers seem to think they are doing you a favor by taking your money. The nearest Best Buy, CC's competitor, is an additional 20-km round trip and driving at night has never been your editor's favorite activity. Your editor knew exactly what he wanted, so he risked CC.

  • To cut the story short. Not a salesperson was to be found despite this being the holiday rush. Luckily your editor ran into a former student working as a cashier over the break. She told him which line to get into.

  • Though there were only four people ahead of him, it took him 40-minutes to get to the counter. All this time the person at the desk had been flashing her chewing gum every time she opened her mouth - which was a lot, because she talked a lot. She was ill-groomed, no cat would deign to bring her in. She made faces every time she spoke. At that she was better than the other people at the desk because at least she was working. One gentleman spent the better part of 20 minutes looking for his misplaced bottled water instead of helping customers as presumably he was being paid to. Another CC person would sigh loudly every time she dealt with a customer, then walk to pick up the item slower than even the editor's students on their way to his math class. And so it went.

  • Luckily, the item the editor wanted was right behind his CC person so once he got to the front he was out of there in less than 10-minutes. It should have taken 3-minutes, but he was grateful it did not take 20.

  • As far as the editor is concerned, the sooner CC goes out of business, the better for humanity. Now, readers are going to say: "But that's the power of capitalism: CC does its job badly, so customers will go to Best Buy and the better company will win." In fact, its not that simple. BB is also quite an ordeal, and when you already have to drive 20-km round trip to pick up a small item because there's nothing closer, driving another 20-km is not a welcome option.

  • When Company A is bad, Company B has only to do its job a little bit better. The American service industry loves to save money by cutting sales service to the absolute minimum. Unless you have a lot of money and can afford upscale stores, pretty much everywhere you go you get bad service. Home Depot, where your editor is to be found 20 times a year, is a horror story. Macys, where he goes 5 times a year is another - the sales staff is polite and knowledgeable, but you have to walk and walk to find a staffer. Entire departments stand pristine of people to sell all those nice things. And so on.

  • To sum: the top management of CC will make out like bandits; the share-holders and workers will get the short end. This is not capitalism, this is legalized theft.

  • Incidentally, if non-Americans wonder why American drive so much: the other day your editor was told by the head of all high school math departments in his county that he had to decorate his room to make it "more welcoming". His protests that this was high school and not elementary school were to no avail. To do the decorations in approved style, he needed a particular stationary item. He had to drive fifty kilometers to three different stores before he got the item: apparently since teacher's decorate their rooms in September, the item is not kept in stock year round.

  • Okay, the punch line: the item cost two dollars. His cost, aside from time, was ten dollars - gasoline, depreciation, maintenance. He used four liters of gasoline, and at that he drives a 1.3-liter car. A normal car would have used 5-6, an SUV 7-8. Of course, his cost was not reimbursed: teachers are supposed to do certain things because they love their jobs so much they aren't supposed to worry about crass things like money. More than that, what about the cost the United States - which is to say the taxpayer, which is to say the editor himself - incurred in getting that 4-liters of gas reliably and safely to him?

  • The Washington Post tells a story where citizens asked a soldier returning from Iraq what could they do for him to show their gratitude for what he had done for them. The soldier's reply? "Use less oil."

  • Oh yes, the stationary item the editor picked up. You already guessed it was made in China, didn't you?

 

0230 GMT December 23, 2007

 

  • Turkey Again Launches Air Strikes against rebel Kurds in Northern Iraq. The sorties were flown. No casualties are reported because, say Iraqi authorities, people have fled the are. This did not stop Ankara from issuing a bombastic statement of success in its campaign against the rebels.

  • Good Onya Mate The new Australian Prime Minister visits Afghanistan and reaffirms his country is committed to the war against the Taliban. Australia has 1000 troops in Afghanistan. But with just 5-6 active infantry and mechanized battalions, and with various peacekeeping commitments, Australia can deploy only small numbers of troops to other missions.

  • CBO Estimates True Cost Of Iraq War as $2.7-trillion through 2017. Of this $1.4-trillion is indirect costs, including $220-billion in interest payments to foreigners, $270-billion for oil market disruption, and $870-billion in foregone investment returns, presumably on the direct costs.

  • Because Iraq was a war of choice, counting indirect costs is legitimate.

  • India To Start Work On Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline in March 2008 barring last minute hitches, reports Associated Press of Pakistan.

  • The US has tried to dissuade India from participating in the pipeline. The problem - as is quite usual with the US - is that Washington has no suggestions on alternatives. India needs the energy, and while it has listened attentively to America's concerns, it has to go ahead.

  • Also, while America denies itself Iranian oil, it can buy oil from a dozen other countries without pushing up the cost of oil - what the US takes up from other exporters, Iran supplies to other importers. India's only non-Iran option is to buy Central Asian gas. That pipeline would have to run across Afghanistan. Right now it would be insane for India - or anyone - to assume that is a realistic option. And, of course, a coastal pipeline from Iran is a much simpler engineering proposition than one across the Hindu Kush.

 

Orbat.com Comment On

Israel Will Take Gaza In 2008: Jerusalem Post

 

  • The newspaper looks at Israel's operations against Hamas as a ladder. The first rung was economic sanctions. The second was the daily strikes inside Gaza. The third, which Israel has begun, is targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders. The fourth, of none of this works to stop the rockets, is to attack Gaza in full force and hunt down Hamas members door-to-door.

  • http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847396222&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

  • The Israeli Foreign Ministry believes that the only way to help Israel's "peace partner" (Austin Powers's quotes ours), President Abbas of Palestine - now president of the West Bank - is to destroy Hamas.

  • The question, JPost says, is what will be the cost. It could be as high as, or higher, than the cost Hezbollah imposed for the 2006 war.

  • The nice thing about being Israeli (or at least the 50% of Israel that believes force is the only option) is that you don't have to learn from your mistakes. Force didn't work against Hezbollah - not that the 50% accept that, they see a glorious victory as opposed to the ignominious defeat the rest of the world see. It hasn't worked against the Palestinians either. But - say the supporters of force - that's because we didn't use enough force.

  • Orbat.com says the Israelis are absolutely incapable of using the force they need to assure their security in Palestine. They will have to kill/expel every single Palestinian to assure security. For obvious reasons even the most rabid Israelis cannot countenance this, if only because the victory could prove pyrrhic.  Israel would stand accused of the worst kind of war crimes, and even Israel's lackey, the United States, would be unable to stop worldwide retaliation against Israel.

  • Now, we are fully cognizant - and have made the point many times - that we do not believe any peaceful concessions will work either, and in this we are with the hardliners. Because we believe there is no solution to this conflict, it being a true zero sum game, we have said its time to consider relocating Israel, most logically to the United States.

  • We should explain why we say it is a zero sum game and why Israelis who say peaceful coexistence with the Arabs is impossible are right. The Jews survived 2000 years of adversity by rejecting, at all costs, integration with the people of the lands they fled to after the ancient land of Israel was cleansed of them. No anthropologists us, but as far as we know there is no other case of an ethnic group maintaining its identity so steadfastly despite the lack of a homeland, for so long.

  • Okay. If the Israelis agree to peaceful coexistance with the Arabs, it will mean the right of return. After all, it is hardly reasonable for Israelis to say: "we have a right of return despite the passage of 1900 years, Arabs don't" and expect Arabs to accept this. If the right of return is granted, Jews in Israel will soon become a minority.

  • And even if Israel denies the right of return but accepts full integration with Arab Israelis already in Israel, higher Arab birthrates and other factors will also lead to eventual minority status. Even if this can be avoided, Jewish identity will be irrevocably diluted if there is any coexistence with anyone.

  • Thus our solution. It would have been best if the west had refused to listen to Jewish dreamers who insisted on a return to the Holy Land and, and had created Israel in Germany. That did not happen. As Israel's chief patron and lackey, it falls on America to solve the problem, and that means an autonomous Jewish state inside America with the US responsible only for defense and foreign affairs.

  • The details someone else can work out. But if anyone in the US thinks the Arabs will simply forget about Palestine and concede it the Israelis because Arabs have gotten nowhere in sixty years, then the Americans are guilty of the worst kind of fantasy. Americans don't have a past. But Arabs, as much as Jews, have a past. And the Arabs are no more willing to forget their past than the Jews.

  • Today the US can stop the Iranians from building N-weapons. But 50 years in the future, will N-weapons even be the issue? What about bioweapons produced by quasi-state groups? What about nanotech weapons? Who will be identify which Arab state is responsible for letting quasi-state groups use their territory so as to identify a clear target for retaliation? And will the threat of retaliation against Arabs deter quasi-state groups from proceeding? We don't think so.

 

0230 GMT December 22, 2007

 

Brittany Spears's Sister And The GWOT

 

  • This should learn us to make flippant remarks: today the editor was ambushed by a highly irate person who had heard about his comment re. Brittany's sister not being news. This is what the person said, summarized:

  • "The age of consent in Louisiana, where Brittany's sister lives, is 17. In California, where her adult boyfriend lives, it is 18. She is not married to this man and age of consent legally applies. Aside from a lot of hypocritical moralizing, no one seems to particularly bother.

  • "When a 17-year old boy in Georgia engaged in a consensual sex act with a 15-year old girl, he was sentenced to a mandatory10-years in jail. The subsequent national outcry led to a change in the state law, but it was not made retroactive. It was only after further protests that the Georgia Supreme Court set him free on the basis the punishment was unusual and cruel. 

  • "You are unusually proud of America for all that you say you are not American. Please explain to me why this 17-year black boy was railroaded, and nothing is being done about a 19-year old white man, and then explain to me why you think America is the greatest country in the world."

  • You've guessed the lady who wanted to seriously bash your editor was African American - and grew up in the South. Her question cannot, obviously be answered because she has a valid point.

  • Your editor lived/worked in an African-American environment for 9 years, and after five years, went back to an African-American/Hispanic school. He is familiar with the argument made by African Americans that the point of the American judicial system seems to be to lock up as many African American males as possible because Anglo men consider them to be a sexual threat.

  • There is no denying that African-Americans are discriminated against in the criminal justice system. For example, why are the penalties for crack cocaine - used primarily by African-Americans - so much more severe than those for powder cocaine - used primarily by Anglos.

  • The thing is, your editor believes that America is less about race than it is about money. The issue is not what percentage of African-Americans get locked up for various offenses compared to Anglos. The issue is what percentage of lower-income people of all races get locked up as compared to well-off people of all races. We have no figures, but we suspect that well-off African-Americans get locked up at far lower rates than poor ones. We suspect the same applies to the poor/well-off divide of all races.

  • Be that as it may, we wanted to take this opportunity to warn our American readers they will be surprised how much of the world is familiar with purely American issues such as the Georgia boy and will soon be talking about the different treatment being accorded to Brittany's sister's boyfriend. Americans don't generally read the foreign press. If they did they would soon realize the entire rest of the world is ready to gleefully pounce on such stories to "prove" their point that America is double-faced.

  • The GWOT is a war of ideologies. The elites of almost all countries are fluent in English and are exposed to the American media. They in turn can influence the "woman on the street". It can be argued that for America to win the GWOT it needs to truly bring liberty and justice to all at home as much as it needs to kill fundamentalists.

 

0230 GMT December 21, 2007

 

We are hard pressed for news this morning. We don't think the news that Brittany Spears' minor sister has become pregnant is news. Apparently the American media disagree. Regardless, we are sure the high-minded media will figure out how to use the story to sell more copies/clicks.

  • Zimbabwe Issues New Bank Notes says the Associated Press. The denominations are Z$250,000; 500,000; and 750,000. Not that this does much good. Citizens are limited to bank withdrawals of Z$5-million a day. AP says that money is about enough for a take-out hamburger.

  • By the way, last year the government cut three zeroes from its currency. The new $Z250,000 note is actually $Z250-million in last year's money.

  • Meanwhile, President Mugabe, otherwise known as the Thug of Africa, is set to become Leader for Life. This doesn't seem to bother African leaders. Doubtless it's all the white man's fault, somewhere, somehow, somewhen.

  • China, India Army Troops In Joint Exercise 100 CI troops from India are in China for a joint exercise with a similar number of PLA troops.

  • Chinese and Indian troops exercising together? Juggling apples with bananas makes more sense.

  • [We thank 9-year old Layla, who we met at a friend's house, and who is a juggler, for the expression.]

  • [Talking about kids: the editor and his youngest, then four, were watching the PBS TV news announcing that India's former prime minister had been killed by a Sri Lankan LTTE suicide bomber. After the TV was switched off, the youngster said: "So our leader has been killed." Your editor was no fan of Rajiv Gandhi, but you had to feel bad for the man's family. So he morosely said "Yes." Said the youngster: "But India needs a leader. We must put up a statue of Rajiv to worship."  What the youngster said will make perfect sense only if you are familiar with the Indian addiction to the Nehru family. Three generations of Nehrus ruled as India's prime ministers for all except 2-3 years of independent India's first 45 years. Now Rajiv's widow is the power behind the current government. She was slated to become head of the government but wisely decided that because she is a foreigner, she would be too divisive. She is grooming her son for future prime minister. This is a big mistake. Her son is the same sort of amiable duffer as his father. The real heir should be her daughter. We suppose, however, that Italian moms feel the same about their sons as Indian moms

  • Swat Mullah Back At It Okay, so we're not going to criticize the Pakistan Army over this, after all, how many times did the US military tell us the insurgents in Iraq have been defeated. Nonetheless, it's definitely embarrassing that just days after Pakistan said it has Swat back under control, the insurgent mullah is back on his radio station.

  • This time he threatens anyone standing for elections scheduled for next month. He will have none of "English" laws, he says, Sharia must prevail. Jang of Pakistan says the mullah's men have already walked into the house of one candidate and told him to forget about elections.

  • The mullah also gave the Pakistan Army an ultimatum to quit Swat, or he will resume action against the army.

 

0230 GMT December 20, 2007

 

  • Energy Good News: First Near Zero Emissions power plant is to be built in Illinois. The plant will burn coal to produce hydrogen, which will be burned to power the plant's 275-MW turbines. ~ 1 million tons of CO2 will be sequestered annually. Construction of the ~$1-billion plant will start in 2009 for 2012 completion.  The US government is putting up two-thirds of the money.

  • The plant is for demonstration purposes; accordingly, the cost - near $4000/KW  - is more typical of N-power plants, but of course the price will fall as the technology develops. India and ROK joined the US as partners in the project in 2006.

  • It's unlikely that large-scale construction of zero/near zero emissions plants will begin till the early 2020s, but at least we are on our way.

  • More Energy Good News: Fuel Economy Standards have been raised to 35-mpg by 2020 from the current 26-mpg. How likely is the estimate this will save 1.1-million bbl/day of oil? US currently uses about 9-million bbl/day motor gasoline . If half - at a guess - is for passenger cars, a 40% increase in fuel efficiency will save 1.8-million bbl/day. But the US population will be ~15% larger by 2020. So use will be 3-million bbl/day. That gives a savings of 1.5-million bbl/day; assuming that the number of cars per capita increases and/or driving mileage increases, 1.1-million bbl/day is probably reasonable.        

  • Good News From Iraq: Kurds Agree To Defer Kirkuk referendum for six months. Washington Post says this is thanks to extensive negotiations by the US and the UN. The referendum is almost certainly to demand putting Kirkuk in Kurdistan, and this move could lead to a full scale Turkish invasion ostensibly to protect Turkoman interests.

  • The Stupidest News From Iraq  we have heard in 4 1/2 years is the reaction of some US analysts to an Iraq survey, commissioned by the US military, which has every ethnic group blaming the US for Iraq instability. This has analysts beaming. The Washington Post has the analysts saying, in effect, "see, they all agree on something, and this augers well for stability when we withdraw."

  • Our first impulse was that regular beatings with limp noodles is too good for these analysts. After all, noodles - limp or otherwise - have their dignity. Why insult the noodles, then?

  • What these analysts are saying is "our big achievement is we have managed to get all Iraqis to hate us because we destroyed the stability of their country. So there is hope for a further achievement, which is stability, when we withdraw." Mon, may we suggest if this is your analysis, please withdraw NOW. Don't spend another day now that you have so clearly identified the US occupation as the problem. 

  • And let's not forget the irony: the British have been repeatedly bashed by the Americans for saying their occupation of Basra was primarily responsible for instability there, so they are withdrawing. so in fairness, the Americans now need to bash themselves.

  • Just about every non-American with any knowledge of Iraq has said the main reason for the chaos is the occupation. And to add insult to injury the US says it has to stay on to assure stability? 

  • How is the US going to stay Number 1 in the world with this kind of confused thinking?

 

Opinion: Bangladesh And India

 

  • We decided to read a couple of Bangladesh military forums while updating Concise World Armies 2008 for additional information/clues. We were utterly amazed at the vitriol against India in the postings - and we read some Indian postings on other forums that were no better.

  • Okay, we understand that Bangladesh as a small country feels threatened by India if only because of the latter's sheer size and security imperatives. But what is the need for the Indians to react with an equal degree of anger and hatred? America is hardly popular among many Canadians and Mexicans. But by and large Americans understand why this is so and ignore attacks on their country. The bigger brother has to make twice the effort toward forbearance and understanding.

  • None of this is to ignore the very real - and steadily increasing - danger posed to India by the rise of fundamentalists in Bangladesh. Yet, we feel Indians should be the first to appreciate the Bangladeshis are equally victims of these people.

  • Indians of all people should understand all the Bangalis want is respect. After all, does not India want respect from the western nations?

  • On the other side, there is no need for Bangladeshis to talk grandiosely about cutting the Siliguri Corridor and punishing India for its imperialist designs on Bangladesh. Absolutely the last thing the Indians want is to take over Bangladesh. The Indians have enough problems of their own.

  • So come on people on both sides: calm down. We are all South Asians with a common heritage and common interests. Bengali regiments were the backbone of the Indian resistance in its 1857-59 war for independence from the British. Bengali freedom fighters were key to the non-violent resistance that eventually won India its freedom. Bengali culture is so rich it is impossible to imagine India without the Bengalis. And the largest number of Bengalis living outside Bangladesh, by far, live in India's West Bengal.

  • The cynical British division of Bengal in 1905 fractured the lives of all Bengalis - and continues to do so 100 years later. There is no need for people five generations on to add to the schism.

 

0230 GMT December 19, 2007

 

  • Kongo Intercepts Missile reader Jose Tejada tells us, sending a link to a Bloomberg report. This is the first attempt by a Japanese warship to make an interception. The Kongo operated as part of a joint Japan-US effort, with a US Navy Aegis cruiser  apparently doing the tracking and providing data that was handed off to the Kongo for the shoot.

  • Turkey Sends 300 Troops Into Iraqi Kurdistan and says it withdrew them after killing some Kurdish separatists. The day before yesterday Turkey also send "upto" 50 aircraft into Iraqi Kurdistan to attack claimed rebel targets; rebels say one civilian was killed.

  • Meanwhile, the president of Iraq Kurdistan refused to keep a scheduled meeting with the US Secretary of State as a protest against US cooperation with the Turkey air strike. Apparently the US not just cleared the attackers through Iraq air space, it also provided targeting information.

  • There is no indication the US obtained Baghdad's permission, but obviously for all the talk about Iraqi sovereignty, Iraqis have as much sovereignty as the good citizens of Washington DC, which is to say zero.

  • There Is Justice In This World: Zuma Wins ANC Presidency and appears set to become South Africa's next president. This will end the Mbeki era. That gentleman, aside from botching up as much as possible of his country's attempts to reduce poverty, will be infamous for his inane AIDs policies and his protection of Zimbabwe's nasty little dictator.

  • Of course, while Mr. Zuma has promised drastic change - which is why he won the leadership - we have to wait and see what he does on Zimbabwe. It must also be said that the keeper of South Africa's ethical values, Bishop Desmond Tutu, has according to BBC said that neither Mr. Mbkei nor Mr. Zuma are fit to lead the country. We acknowledge Bishop Tutu is quite political and therefore not entirely neutral; nonetheless, his refusal to endorse Mr. Zuma is like withholding the Good Housekeeping seal.

  • Another Fact That Causes US To Yawn We are no fans of the US training efforts regarding the Iraq Army because we believe the US is going about the whole thing in ways that are wrong, unproductive, and destructive of the goal of a strong, independent Iraq Army. Nonetheless, fairness requires us to comment on the figure of 17% annual personnel losses due to desertions and casualties.

  • Given all the sectarian turmoil in Iraq, and given that men volunteer for service believing they will see duty in their home areas, and given that many men are likely still volunteering simply to get military training before they desert to their militias, and given that economic desperation is a big motivator for men who first join and then discover they cannot hack army life, and given that the soldiers' families are at risk at home as well as face many difficulties when the men are away, an annual one in six loss rate is quite reasonable.

  • We believe the US is actually doing a good job of keeping men in the service. You cannot compare Iraqi desertion rates to those for stable countries. Afghanistan Army has experienced comparable desertion rates. Bar the sectarian violence and getting free training for the militias, which are not reasons for Afghan desertions, all the other reasons are common.

  • Also please note there are no consequences for deserting. It's not like the US, where deserters are hunted down, or like the old Iraq Army where if you were caught you could be executed or at the very minimum very severely punished. In our personal opinion, if US Army recruits could simply walk away when they found the military not to their liking, you would see a fairly high US desertion rate. This is likely true of any army. Being in any army is no joke, and being in an army at war is even less of a joke.

 

 

0230 GMT December 18, 2007

 

  • Iraq Attacks Drop To 2004 Level Excellent news, now can we please get some brigades out of Iraq and into Afghanistan?

  • The Americans qualify the improvement by saying its possible all sides are simply waiting for the Americans to leave before resuming their killing, and this seems likely. But so what? If the Americans disappoint the bloodthirsty thugs of all factions by hanging around, you can bet the violence will start up again - directed at the Americans. Of all the reasons that violence may have gone down, the most unlikely one is that the Iraqis are now reconciled to an American presence and are saying "the Americans are here forever, we may as well get along."

  • DJ Eliot at www.longwarjournal.org wants to remind people that there are now 4 Iraqi Army brigades in Basra Province. He believes they are on the main well-trained and their presence should help in stabilizing Basra. Please read his article for yourself.

  • Your editor freely admits that the last time he went to Iraq was 1969, which is thirty eight years ago. The longwarjournal team spends much time in Iraq. But we at Orbat.com are not without resources. In our opinion, based on our discussion with people who have first-hand knowledge of Iraq, what will happen in Basra is that the forms of violence will change now that the British have left and the Iraqis are in charge. But violence will continue

  • The Administration Figures Out Where Afghanistan Is and that things are not going well. So President Bush is to have regular conferences with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Presumably this personal attention by the admittedly very charming Mr. Bush will take the President's mind off the steady advance of the Taliban who now have their eyes on his capital.

  • Meanwhile, if we go by the report in December 17th's Washington Post, the new focus on Afghanistan is nothing more than FAAU - Futzing Around As Usual, with rivers of words substituting for a trickle of action.

  • People are talking about reorganizing the command. Goodness gracious, how bold! We are sure the Taliban are trembling in their pink bunny slippers.

  • Then someone says that the 3 battalions being requested is not going to be enough, yet another three battalions are needed. We are astonished at the acuteness these people dusplay?. Ever occur to anyone that if the west sends in two more brigades in 2008, the Taliban, which has an endless source of recruits from Pakistan, money from Saudi, and more money from opium, is going to use the additional buildup to motivate more people to join?

  • To win a war, you have to overwhelm the adversary, giving him no opportunity to adapt to your increased pressure. Hey, Washington, anyone remember Vietnam? We thought you all had vowed there would never be another Vietnam. But Best and Brightest Version 2, what do you think you have in Afghanistan? Every time the US send more troops into Vietnam the communists escalated. If those troops had been sent at the start, the communists would have lost the ability to counter.

  • Our bad! We forgot the Best and Brightest Version 2 didn't serve in Vietnam because they had other plans.

  • But does anyone remember Iraq? That is only 4 1/2 years ago, which even for the Attention Deficit Boomer generation cant be that long ago? Remember what happened when the US went in with inadequate troops? No? Okay, how about the movie "Clueless on the Potomac"? You can't have forgotten that because it's playing right now and you all are acting in it.

  • Japan To Test ABM on Monday December 17, says reader Jose Tejada, forwarding an link from the International Herald Tribune http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/16/america/NA-GEN-US-Missile-Defense-Japan.php

  • The Japanese missile destroyer Kongo will use a Standard 3 to intercept a simulated DPRK Nodong launched from the Pacific Missile Range. The US Aegis cruiser Lake Erie will track the missile and provide data for the Kongo.

  • The article says that Japan as yet does not have sufficient Standard 3s to make a difference, but it is acquiring them, and the test is an important step in the joint US-Japan ABM defenses.

  • As of 0230 GMT Tuesday we say no mention of the test's outcome in Japan's Asahi Shinbun.

  • Reader George Fescos asks if we have considered a PayPal "Donate to Orbat.com" button? A good idea, we're not sure how well it would work though. From what a couple of other people tell us, it's not worth the trouble.

  • Our problem is that though we get 1.2-million page views a month we haven't been able to persuade the three or so ad agencies we've approached to take us up. The Web Version 2 is about free content, and ads are the only way that can be done if Orbat.com is not making enough money to subsidize America Goes To War. which it is not.

 

0230 GMT December 17, 2007

 

  • Russia Threat Over Czech-based ABM Russia says that a missile launch from the proposed US ABM site in the Czech Republic could trigger Russia's "automatic" retaliatory system.

  • The Russians do not have their N-force set on automatic and nor did they ever do so, for the obvious and good reason a false positive by their radars would lead to nuclear doomsday. So making this threat is quite stupid. If people believe the Russians are on automatic, this will alarm the heck out of everyone because it makes the Russians look completely irresponsible and not to be trusted. If they don't believe it, Russia shows itself as weak by blustering.

  • Further, the Russians are saying if the Europeans protect themselves against Iranian and potential rogue states, the Europeans could ignite an N-war. No one can be expected to accept so absurd a proposition, and the Czechs expectedly told the Russians it wasn't their business.

  • But let's look at the Russian position for a moment Agreed that it is not the west's business to assuage the famous Russian paranoia that can border on the psychotic. But we have the US determined to build a missile shield to protect west Europe from Iranian missiles, and has anyone in west Europe asked the US to do so? We don't think anyone has. It can then be argued that it isn't the US's business to care more for west Europe's security than the west Europeans care.

  • If west Europe is so worried about Iranian missiles, why aren't they being located in Germany, for example? why have the Germans been making all sorts of noises against the proposed US deployment?

  • So in this case it may not be entirely unreasonable for the Russians to believe the system is designed to protect against them.

  • It is entirely reasonable for the US to say "Russian missiles are a threat to the US, and we are entitled to build defenses against them wherever we feel neccessary." But then let the US say so and not make Iran the excuse.

  • Interestingly, the Russians have had little to say about the deployment of ABM interceptors on American soil. Alaska is already slated to have 40 missiles, far more than the 10 proposed for the Czech Republic. The US has said the missiles defend against DPRK, though obviously the system, which includes many other types of missiles and platforms, could also be used to defend against Russian launches from the Far East.

  • Musa Qala Faces "Almost Daily" Taliban Rocket Attacks says the BBC. The Taliban have been forced out of the town, but they have not been defeated. Yesterday an Afghan Army patrol killed 4 insurgents in a firefight near the town.

  • Some In Washington Getting Irate About Israel's constant attacks on the recent Iran NIE, we are told. Israel's credibility is zero since the Iraq WMD fiasco in which Israel fed wrong information to the US.

  • Okay, that's fair enough, anyone stupid enough to buy Israeli "intelligence" on anything that affects Israeli security deserve all the pain they get. Why should anyone be surprised that Israel systematically misuses intelligence for its purposes? After all, the Israelis have learned how to do so at the feet of the masters, the Americans.

  • The US has every right to reject Israeli pressure on the Americans to scuttle the NIE. The report was so unexpected that the Israeli lobby is only now getting organized. You are going to see massive and sustained Israeli pressure on Washington because the NIE deep-sixed Israel's beautiful dream of the Americans doing Israel's work by taking out the Iranian N-program.

  • But the Israelis h