0230 GMT January 31, 2007

Really no major news events yesterday

• Pellosi Mission To Iraq Sees No Hope The US House speaker led a mission to Iraq and Afghanistan and returns with the belief the situation in Iraq is hopeless beyond repair. A Democratic senator who was part of the mission says 2-300,000 US troops are needed.

• It's jolly awkward to having Democrats agree with us and we are not citing the above two honorable Congresspersons to buttress our case. Our case stands on its own merits, thank you.

• We run the news simply to note that opposition to the President's last ditch plan is rapidly gaining momentum. For example, legal experts told Congress that it has the authority to cut funding for a foreign war. we are no constitutional experts, but as we read it, the experts were saying that while the President can start a war without going to Congress if the situation is dire, he needs Congress's OK to keep the war going.

• At the same time, it's clear that very few politicians want to take the logical step of cutting funding. The explanation usually given is that no one wants to cut the troops off at the knees. The real explanation is seldom stated: Congress is simply too yellow to take the responsibility of ending this war.

• The American system is built on checks and balances, and despite the passage of 231 years, the document called the Constitution is so well thought out that it is wholly relevant even today. But what the Constitution did not take into account - and it could not - is that one of the troika that constitute American governance should so abjectly fail in its duty to the Republic.

• The President governs, the Supreme Court has final say on law, and the Congress appropriates money, keeps watch on the President, and can overrule the Supreme Court by passing new laws under certain conditions.

• In the GWOT, the Supreme Court of necessity plays a minor role. So far it has ruled only on the President's theory that he is free to deal with enemy combatants as he wants, and the Court has rejected the theory.

• It is Congress and Congress alone that could have acted as a check on the President re. GWOT. Congress has consistently rejected its role in the last 6 years.

• Even now when Iraq is acknowledged by almost everyone to have gone to heck, Congress doesn't want to do a thing to end the war. Our personal suspicion is the Democrats simply find it more expedient to blame the President and let him continue sinking deeper into the quagmire than to stand up for what is right. If this is the game the Democrats want to play, then they emerge as unprincipled as the Administration. There is nothing to choose between the two when it comes to the Stink Factor.

• In the meanwhile, we continue to tell the troops in the field, in effect: "We want you to come home, but we don't want to be accused of being unpatriotic, so we're gonna continuing letting you die."

• We want the Democrats, who now control Congress, to tell us how this policy is any different from that of the President's policy that they roundly condemn? He too would rather have the troops die than admit he is wrong.

• We keep saying this again and again: what's wrong with American governance today is not the President, not the administration, not the Republicans or the Democrats. It is the whole cesspool in which all of them are happily wading.

• We say again: drain the cesspool. We need a revolution, or America will start declining. Which will be a tragedy not just for America, but for the whole world and for the 21st Century.

• AU Force For Somalia Pledged Only 4000 Troops instead of the 8,000 needed. We suppose this is progress, as till now only 1,000 troops had been pledged. No one has any enthusiasm to get involved in Somalia, and we can't blame them.

• Letter On Our Comments About A General's Duty [name withheld by request]. We'd said that a general's duty is first to his men, then to his country, and that he has no duty toward politicians. Our letter writer says: "Sadly, my own experience (just retired USAF and now a contractor for the AF) is that AF generals always look to their career first. There has been an in-breeding of staggering proportions going on, where careerists select very young officers that fit their mold and push them ahead of the young officers’ peers in order for fast promotion. AF generals have developed an almost universal reputation for being unwilling to make a decision unless absolutely required, since ANY decision will potentially cross someone who can affect the general’s progression."

0230 GMT January 30, 2007

No major news events yesterday

• Top Shia Political Leader Calls For Iraq Partition into 3 zones: Kurd north, Shia south, and a mixed Sunni-Shia center. For the last, read Sunni center as no Shia in his right mind will want to live with Sunnis and vice versa after the events of the last 3 years. The Shia leader has used the term "mixed" only because the government of Iraq and US/UK have said they don't want Iraq broken along ethnic lines, not because it is feasible.

• The Top USMC Commander In Anbar says the arrival of 4,000 more Marines will help reinforce the success of the past few months. We are quite under whelmed by this statement.

• First, are 2 more Marine battalions being sent (a battalion landing team is 2000 Marines) or are 2 battalions being extended by 4 months? If the latter, this is another bandaid fix.

• Second, would the good commander kindly let us know how much of the "success"  represents the recovery of ground lost after the US began drawing down forces committed to Anbar instead of increasing them? And could he give us a fair basis for comparison by telling us what was the area under US control at its peak? Until then, talk of reinforcing success is hyperbolic spin.

• After telling CNN that US now controls Ramadi, the good commander is quoted as saying: If we need to go any place in that city, we will go there," he said."The enemy still has the ability to move around (Ramadi) and he will go where we are not and we understand that," Zilmer explained. "But, if we must go someplace then, again, there is no challenge to us that prevents us to go anywhere we need to go." 

• What this this verbiage mean? The US has ALWAYS been able to go where it wanted in Iraq no matter how bad things were. The problem has been HOLDING areas after the US has gone where it wants. Does the general seriously believe in 4 months or 8 or even 12 the Iraqi Army and police will suddenly be able to control the province? We doubt he believes anything like that.

• Okay, so why are we beating up on this general when everyone knows he is not free to speak his mind and has to mouth the politically corrupt  sewage that emanates from Washington?

• Because unless generals like him speak the truth, the civilians will continue their failed policies. It is not just that he needs to speak the truth: every general needs to - and that includes golden boy General David Petraeus.

• A general can never become so attached to his career that he lies in order to further the agenda of the politicians. His first loyalty is to his men, his second is to the country. He has no obligation whatsoever to the politicians. Whether he speaks the truth while in uniform or whether he believes he has to resign before speaking the truth is, as far as we are concerned, his personal affair.

• The United States went through a very serious trauma in the 1960s and 1970s because generals thought first of their careers and then of their men, and told the politicians what the politicians wanted to hear. The generals destroyed America's trust in its armed forces. We don't need to go through this all over again.

• 3 Dead In 1st Israel Suicide Bombing In 9-Months Still, that Israel has managed to prevent any attack for so long is impressive. Israeli papers report that the country is worried about a new wave of attacks. Presumably the usual culprits will be responsible: Iran and the radical Palestinians.

• Meanwhile there is a pathetic hoohaa afoot because of Israel's widespread use of cluster bombs in the 2006 Lebanon War. US sources speak darkly of punishing Israel. Last time this happened was after the 1982 Lebanon war, when the US punished Israeli very severely: it banned export of certain types of US ordnance for six years. We are sure the Israelis cried every night as they went to sleep.

• The issue is not the use of cluster weapons, discriminate or indiscriminate. The issue is why the United States allowed Israel to destroy several billion dollars of Lebanese civil infrastructure.

• For the US to now of a sudden talk of punishing Israel for the use of one type of bomb is the rankest hypocrisy. The US needs to own up to the reality that it sanctioned all of Israel's actions in Lebanon. If anyone is to be punished for human rights violations, it is is Washington. Don't blame Israel after giving it  carte blanche.

• As a  counterpoint to the cluster-bomb issue there is the news that Israel will buy $100-million of JDAM kits from the US. We don't have details, but that amount suffices for 2-4000 bombs. That's really punishing the Israelis, eh?

0230 GMT January 29, 2007

No major news events yesterday

• US Airstrikes, Iran+US Troops Kill 250 Sect Members in a continuing battle in a suburb of Najaf, the Shia holy city south of Baghdad. Earlier identified as a group of 4-600 Sunni fighters aiming to attack pilgrims during the Ashura commemoration, the group is now said to be a mixed faith Muslim apocalyptic organization whose leader's offices were closed down 10 days ago.

• Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani, the senior Shia religious leader, is said to also have been a target, though we don't see how the cult expected to get anywhere near him given he has his own very heavy security and that 10,000 Iraqi/US forces were protecting Najaf.

• Most of the enemy casualties were caused by US air strikes. The number is not confirmed, but may go up as the group is surrounded.

• Our first reaction when we read the news was: "Well, at least the Iraqi Army can fight when its facing Sunnis." Our second reaction, when the situation became clearer, was: "as if Iraq doesn't have enough dysfunctional groups causing chaos, the US has to deal with a bunch of looney tuners." Our third reaction was that one thing the US is really outstanding at is battles where the other side decides to stand and fight, and not that anyone needed confirmation, but here you have the proposition nicely proved for the Nth time. So far announced US casualties are just 2 killed when a helicopter was downed, probably by opposition fire. Iraq lost 9 killed as far as is known at this time - proof that the Iraqis were wisely letting the Americans do what Americans do best.

• Counter Intuition: American Suburbia And The Automobile We've done our share of berating Americans for their car-obsessed culture. More than likely this is because the editor can afford nothing more than a 1.3 liter Suzuki Swift that has the same interior soundproofing as a T-54 tank, though why we're insulting the poor T-54 is a good question. Nonetheless, the Washington Post on Sunday carried an article written by two members of www.reason.org that puts things in a quite different perspective.

• Fact 1: Yes, Americans log 88% of their travel miles in autos. But the Euros, who pay twice as much for gasoline, do 78% of their miles in autos, and are gaining on the Americans. Car ownership/usage is a function of standard of living.

• Fact 2: Mass transit does not reduce auto miles. In the last 40 years, spending on transit has increased 7+ times but the number of Americans who use it to reach work has dropped from 68% to 5%. In public transit rich Europe, the percentage has fallen to 16% (2000) and is decreasing. In fairness, we need to note that the US dollar is worth 6 times less today than 45 years ago, so the 7+ times expansion in spending is not accurate. Nonetheless, spending has not fallen in real terms but mass transit usage to work has almost disappeared.

• Fact 3: Auto pollution in the US is decreasing, not increasing. Mileage goes up 1-3% every year, but auto pollution drops 10% a year.

• Fact 4: America is not being paved over. Only 5.5% of American land is developed - US census definition is 30 or more people a square mile. Incidentally, while American houses are getting bigger, lot size is getting smaller: it has fallen from 14,000 square feet to 10,000 square feet in the 30 years 1970-2000. The authors say that if you divided America into 4 people households, and gave every household an acre - nearly 45,000 square feet - all of America would fit in half of Texas. Fair enough, but that's like saying Australia is empty and can take 250-million or whatever immigrants. The reality is most of Australia is uninhabitable. The effects of urban/suburban crowding in a region like the Washington Metropolitan are apparent with every passing year, and the destruction of open land between the area and Charlottesville, Virginia, a route the editor has regularly traveled for 14 years is absolutely frightening. Of course, this has nothing to do with automobiles, its just a consequence of rising standards of living and a population that is growing at the fastest rates in the developed world.

• Sinn Fein Accepts Northern Ireland Police As Legitimate Another step forward in ending the civil war. Sinn Fein targeted police during the war, killing 300 in 30 years.

• We were once asked why we bother with our occasional coverage of  Northern Ireland when there are so many more conflicts that are far larger. For example, India's 17 year counter-insurgency in Kashmir has seen perhaps 40-60,000 killed and we hardly mention that.

• The thing is there is something attractive about the Irish: their history is drenched in poverty, sorrow and tragedy, but they have an extraordinary resilience and an amazing joy for life. It's a classic case of "against all odds", and now that Ireland has become a rich and dynamic country, for the first time in modern history, it simply gives us a warm feeling each time a step is taken to put "the Troubles" behind.

• Incidentally, just the phrase "the Troubles" vividly demonstrates the how special the Irish are. Besides which, when the sun is out in the summer there is no place on earth more beautiful.

• Okay, okay, we'll say it otherwise our readers will think the editor is not being entirely candid: in his humble opinion, even if Ireland had nothing else to recommend it, the women alone would suffice to generate a lasting fondness for the country.

0230 GMT January 28, 2007

No major news events yesterday

• 7 More US Soldiers Die In Roadside Bombings Every time we hear such news, which is just about every day, we wonder why the US Army has not reemployed its M-113s, appropriately equipped with enhanced armor. There are probably tens of thousands in storage. The up-armored Humvee is a toy compared to an M-113; given its maximum payload is 2.5 tons, after subtracting for fuel and normal payload, it cannot have much more than 2000 lbs left for armor, and - as has been said time and again - after the armor is added on the vehicle's mobility and life are drastically reduced.

• So what is going on here? Has the US Army given any explanation why it is still using Humvees as armored vehicles when the darn thing was designed as a soft-skinned jeep substitute?

• Of course, no vehicle is proof against a big enough bomb. But the M-113 would give the troops a considerably greater chance of survival than the Humvee, whose greater road speed is no protection against roadside bombs, and whose mobility is restricted compared to that of the M-113.

• Ethiopia Says 1/3rd Troops Have Left Somalia Since no one seems to know how many troops were inside Somalia in the first place, the Ethiopian statement is a bit frivolous.

• Meanwhile the AU peacekeeping force proposal continues under debate.

• Sri Lanka Stops LTTE Naval Attack On Colombo Harbor says Press Trust of India. 3 boats were intercepted as they moved at high speed into the harbor, apparently aiming for a foreign container ship. One boat blew up causing some damage to the ship; the other two were chased and sunk west of Colombo. Harbor operations returned to normal after one hour.

• 37 Air Chiefs To Attend Indian Conference next month says the Hindu newspaper. We wonder if this is a record for number of chiefs of air staff in one place?

• Confusion On Iranian Centrifuges The announcement by an Iran parliamentary official that his country was installing 3000 centrifuges at Nantez has received wide publicity because of the potential link to Iran's N-weapons quest.

• Surprisingly, an Iranian nuclear agency official says no new centrifuges have been installed.

• Palestine Fighting Toll 24 In 3 Days as Fatah and Hamas continue their clashes. Some 50 persons have been kidnapped by both sides, in an apparent attempt to secure hostages to negotiate release of their people kidnapped at various times earlier.

• The Debate On Israel's Occupation Of Palestine As Apartheid Readers will be familiar with the controversy over former US President Jimmy Carter's book on the Middle East where he uses the word apartheid to label the Israeli policies toward Palestinians. It seems to us he is right to do so, but here is an article which says why the word is wrong. We don't think the article convincingly refutes the idea of Israel's apartheid, even if it is different from the South African case, but does make the case for avoiding use of the word. Sometimes it may not help to call a shovel a shovel.

0230 GMT January 27, 2007

Mo major news events yesterday

• US Greenlights Killing Of Iranian Agents In Iraq This is in contrast to the catch and release policy the US has followed for the past 2 years or so and which was having no effect on Teheran.

• Iran is playing all sides against the middle: it supports rival Shia militias, the Kurds, and even channels some money to Sunnis, even as it tells the government of Iraq that there is no better friend than Iran.

• The new policy has drawn opposing comments. On the one hand, people are saying that this new dispensation is long overdue because Iran has not had to pay any price for its interference in Iraq and Lebanon. Iran has been stepping up counter-pressure on the US's efforts to de-nuclearise it and to marginalize it in the Mideast, and this is the US's way of saying: "We up the ante."

• Conversely, people are worrying the US is sliding into a new conflict which will not be fought on its terms. For example, Iran can step up efforts to kidnap or kill US soldiers. We suspect the recent meticulously executed operation against a US liaison team visiting Karbala was an Iranian operation. Only Americans were targeted, and now we learn four of the five killed were taken away alive and then executed, possibly because the kidnappers were feeling threatened by possible/actual pursuit and wanted to make their getaway simpler. People also worry that the US cannot control escalation/counter-escalation in a clandestine campaign against Iran.

• Nonetheless, readers need to keep in mind that every time the US steps up pressure, more Iranian leaders/decision-makers

• 5 Killed In Mogadishu by unknown assailants, so it's too early to conclude that the "guerilla war" - read terror campaign - promised by the defeated ICU has begun.

• Meanwhile, South Africa says it has no troops to contribute to an AU force. This claim may seem odd, given the size of the SADF, but the government has so severely run down the military in the last 10 years that there is no reason to doubt the pronouncement.

• Iran Oil Production Running Down say various reports, including one quoting an Iraqi official who says production is down 500,000 bbl/day. There is no agreement on this figure, which some say is too high, but there is no disagreement Iran's oil industry is in trouble for 4 main reasons.

• One, the US embargo of many years has hurt Iran's ability to get equipment or investment. Two, Iran has very cheap petrol and its cars are very energy inefficient so a large and increasing quantity of oil goes toward wasteful domestic use. We have already previously discussed Iran's refinery shortage, forcing it to import gasoline in ever increasing quantities. Third, Iran tries to drive such tough deals for new exploration/production that many countries who could care a hoot about the US embargo don't go through with deals. Last, most investors are worried about the escalating US-Iran feud which could undermine their hope of profits.

• Situation is expected to get worse before it gets better, putting increasing pressure on the government because it relies on oil revenues to stay in business. The fall of the dollar against the euro cannot be helping things.

0230 GMT January 26, 2007

Mo major news events yesterday

• Army Clamps Beirut Curfew After Student Violence between pro- and anti-government forces at Beirut Arab University. 4 dead and 150+ wounded. Intermittent gunfire and other violence reported in city.

• US To Boost Afghan Aid with $10 billion to be given over the next two years, of which $2 billion is for the military. This amount is about as much as has been given over five years.

• A brigade of 10th Division is to stay for an additional 4 months against the expected Taliban spring offensive.

• More reports say the Taliban have free run of various districts of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. Usual boring denial by Pakistan government.

• We don't get the impression that the US campaign to publicize this issue is a prelude to greater unilateral NATO action against Pakistan territory, but if Pakistan does not reassert control over the NWFP and the spring comes with heavy fighting, all bets are off.

• We congratulate US administration on at last seeing the light as far as Afghanistan is concerned. This is a much more important mission than Iraq because it is an effort to bring an Islamic country forward by five centuries into modernity within two decades.

• When Mr. Rumsfeld was around, he'd behave like an ADHD child strapped into a car seat on a journey across the US: why are we still in Afghanistan he would complain, jumping up and down. He held down the troop levels, and he forced severe cutbacks in the buildup of the Afghan army because he didn't think America should nation-build.

• This is a reasonable view point, but then America should not have gone into Iraq and Afghanistan and destroyed the existing systems, horrible as they were.

• Letter On Ethanol From George Fescos The problem with oil alternatives is that they really do not exist. Ethanol is a scam being perpetrated by the agriculture interests.  Synthetic fuels from coal and even wood chips is even more ridiculous. Converting corn to a liquid, ethanol, has a cost.  Why waste energy converting it to a liquid and then burn it?  Why not burn it whole and power electrical power plants, freeing up natural gas for use in transportation?  There are already natural gas powered vehicles on the road and working.
   

0230 GMT January 25, 2007

Mo major news events yesterday

• US/Iraq Forces Again Clear Haifa Street just two weeks after they thought they had cleared it for at least the third time. A US military sources assures us they have learned the lessons of the last attempt.

• We do not generally criticize the military, not for any reasons of false patriotism but because it has generally fought a sensible war and been realistic in its statements and claims. But this particular pronouncement we find both stupid and offensive. Given enough tries, anyone can get anything right. If the sources mean the US now has forces sufficient to hold Haifa Street whereas last fortnight it did not, we'd like a reasonable explanation of why the previous offensive was launched.

• We'd like to know how the Iraqi forces did because this is the key to success. We'd like to know what the problems are regarding this particular street, which actually part runs into the Green Zone, allegedly the highest security area in Iraq and maybe, as far as the US military is concerned, even in the world.

• The military cannot just continue claiming operational security as an excuse for not letting the public know what's going on. The public is entitled to know why 900 troops, 500 of them American, backed by more firepower than any other military in the world can claim, were unable to clear and hold this street two weeks ago

• Meanwhile, US military officials tell NPR that Iraqi battalions of 750 men can have actual strengths of 120 men. That's just great news. Three years into the new Iraqi Army they can't even keep their units at anything approaching strength, then what does it mean to say the Iraqis have 10 divisions and 40 brigades and blah blah blah? Talk like this is just one step removed from outright lying. The US military had built a good reputation in Iraq and its senior officers need to think long and hard before they themselves start shooting holes in it.

• Two Other Baghdad Battles Underway The military piously says it is not targeting Sunnis even though the fighting is in Sunni dominated areas. Whom is the military trying to fool here? The Iraq Army has no intention of fighting its brother Shias, and the US doesn't as yet have enough troops to take on the Shia militias itself. Of course it is going after Sunnis because that's all it can count on the Iraq Army to help with.

• We repeat: the time for spin is over. What is wrong with stating the matter honestly? Oh gosh, stupid us! If the military states the matter honestly, the American public is going to support the administration's mission even less than it already does. The mission is built on the hope - just the hope - that the Iraqis will do their job this time. Hope based on what, pray tell? Definition of psychosis: doing the same thing over and over hoping for a different result.

• Lebanon Opposition Plans New Actions The Lebanese government won this round, to our way of thinking. We believe this to be the first major misstep Hezbollah has made domestically in the crisis that began with the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers last year.

• US Hits Al-Qaeda Target In Somalia Again No details as yet. The first attack was not successful. Nonetheless, these sorts of missions involve a high degree of risk, not just in that things may go wrong, but that the objective is not achieved. That is the name of the game: this is not a Tom Clancy thriller but real life. So we are not concerned. For all we know, a third mission may be required, or even a fourth, fifth, or sixth before the bad guys get theirs. We just hope the impending defeat of the administration's new strategy in Iraq doesn't destroy its credibility to the extent that even the little it is doing in other GWOT theatres is compromised.

• Israeli Presidential Scandal Whenever your editor worries about US corruption at the highest levels and the general lack of morality on the part of the ruling elite, he finds it comforting to turn his attention to Israel.

• So you though Bill Clinton did something horrifically terrible, sufficiently ghastly to be impeached? Well, get this. The Israeli president is accused of raping four women. That's the  cases the authorities are going ahead with; there appears to be at least one more the authorities decided to drop.

• The Israeli president says he is innocent. In fairness to him, the charges relate to alleged events many years ago. We also saw in Mr. Clinton's case that partners who may have participated consensually may change their stories for many reasons, both good and bad.

• As for Israeli top-level corruption, living as he does in the US, the editor is hardly in any position to join finger pointing. This is a subject better left to our Israeli readers, if any.

0230 GMT January 24, 2007

• Lebanon Opposition Ends Strike Earlier reports said that Lebanon  was paralyzed by Hezbollah-led strikes These strikes are supported by the trade unions and Syrian supporter. There was some violence. The Lebanon Army was restrained in combating strikers - as well it might, because a significant fraction is Shia and would tend to support Hezbollah.

• Times London opines that Hezbollah is weakening on account of the long period over which its plans to topple the government have been drawn out.

• So was the strike called off because Hezbollah sensed that it could not succeed at this point? We'll let readers know as we find out.

• Sri Lankan Rebels Suffer Major Defeats We haven't been following the resurgence of the Sri Lanka civil war because we had no one to sort out the complexities for us. It seems government forces have dealt the once invincible LTTE Tigers major blows and the rebels are in retreat, abandoning territories long held. Dawn of Karachi says they appear to be conserving their strength, and warns against over-optimism. Dawn notes that the Tigers have rallied strongly from previous defeats, though this time there are reasons to be believe the damage done to them will be more lasting.

• US Says 600 Sadr Supporters Arrested in 52 operations over 45 days. The figure includes over a dozen senior leaders.

• This is fine as far as it goes, but those arrested will have to be tried by the Iraq government. Let's see how many are let free and how quickly before agreeing this is a crackdown with some impact.

• Terrorist Zawahiri On Comedy Central Al Qaeda's Number 2 need not worry about a job after he is rendered irrelevant. He can always come to America and become a comedian.

• We refer to his statement about why is the US sending 20,000 troops to Iraq. Why not 50,000 or 100,000, he asks? More troops, more corpses for Iraq's dogs, he says.

• Well, the US is sending 20,000 and not 100,000 troops because it doesn't have any more left to send, fool. And just as well for you: if the US had more troops, AQ in particular would have been defeated in the field. As for Iraqi dogs, it hasn't been American corpses they have been feeding on, but the corpses of Iraqis you help kill.

• Ethiopia Pulls Out 200 Troops From Somalia Is this the start of a real pullout or is it a symbolic move, involving troops that are no longer needed, for PR purposes? We don't know at this time.

• Flash: Proof That The Boomers Want To Live Forever A lot of us suspect that the Baby Boomers have a dastardly plan to live forever. Yesterday we received proof this is indeed true.

• President Bush wants the US to reduce gasoline consumption by 20% over 10 years and to double the size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, also in 10 years. This leisurely-paced proposal is underwhelming. Ten years is a very long time indeed. The US won World War II in less than six if you count its participation from the 1940 build-up. It put men on the moon in 9 years.

• But suppose, just suppose, that the Boomers intend to live forever. Then 10 years is a very rapid timeframe, isn't it? It's an all-out crash program.

• Look Who's Arguing Against Energy Independence None other that the Washington Post, that magnificent repository of Giant Minds. The Post editorialized the other day that US energy independence will not bring down global oil prices because the oil not bought by the US will be bought by someone else. And, says WashPo, the argument that adversaries could disrupt oil supplies is wrong, as no one has the power to simultaneously disrupt oil from all US overseas suppliers.

• Our reaction was to sigh. We love WashPo because of the comics section, almost 3 pages worth every single day. We don't want to hurt WashPo's feelings because Giant Minds are very sensitive and could become non-functional thanks to our scathing comments. That might mean the paper collapses and then no more comics.

• But consider this. If US were to produce 10 million bbl/day more oil/oil alternatives itself, global demand would go down by that much regardless of how much oil the rest of the world wants. So prices will be significantly lower no matter what. As for the security argument, we at Orbat.com have never been so stupid as to make that argument as a reason for energy independence.

• Our argument has been that (a) the US is actually paying near double the stated price for imported oil because of the security cost of keeping the oil flowing; (b) the need to keep oil flowing distorts US foreign policy objectives. For example, the demands of the GWOT require that Saudi Arabia be whacked, instead we outdo ourselves to kiss its fat behind.  And (c) we need to stop feeding cash to our enemies. It does not matter that others will take over the feeding: at least we would not be underwriting those who want to destroy us.

• We argue it is cheaper by far, and simpler by far, to attain energy independence than to let the present situation continue. For example, if mileage per gallon doubled with hybrid cars, the US could cut about 5-million barrels a day from its imports. The problem with hybrids is they are about $3000 more expensive than regular cars. Lets assume a massive jump in output would half the premium to $1500. Assume a 10 year lifetime for the vehicles, that's $150/year. Some of that would be reduced because electricity from coal - even with carbon sequestering - is cheaper than gasoline. Some more would be reduced because our security requirements to assure oil supplies would be less. If $100 is saved, that leaves $5-billion a year that has to be made up. A modest increase in gasoline taxes would do the job.

• You can knock about your own set of figures; we are only making the point that oil independence is not as expensive as some may think. Its a matter of will. Which of course is seriously missing in America today, unless its to will for self-gratification.

0230 GMT January 23, 2007

No news of significance yesterday

• UK To Add 3rd Infantry Battalion To Its Afghanistan Brigade 12th Mechanized Brigade will deploy to Afghanistan's Helmand province with 3 infantry battalions instead of the two that have been sent in the last 2 rotations.

• The US is considering a troop increase in Afghanistan.

• We welcome these added commitments while noting that the rest of NATO continues sitting on its collectively expanding behind. We also think its unfortunate that the UK will have ~7200 troops in Afghanistan but will find only 1800 infantry from them. The US contingent is also very heavy in support overhead. In this mission infantry is critical, and US/UK need to study, very hard, how to increase infantry strength within their authorized troop levels.

• Iran To Refuse Entry To 38 IAEA Inspectors says Xinhua of China, quoting a semi-official Iran news agency. At the same time, however, Xinhua carries a story January 17 saying Iran is inviting IAEA inspectors to visit in early February.

• The answer to the seeming contradiction may lie in an IRNA report indicating Iran is objecting to some inspectors in particular, we assume on basis of nationality. Iran is within its legal rights to refuse inspectors of particular nationality. Its action will be in retaliation to UN sanctions imposed last December.

• Iranian Guard Corps Opens New Exercise extending 5 days and apparently aimed at testing launch procedures for tactical missiles. We have noted a while ago that the Iranian armed forces are among the most exercised in the world.

• Kurds Refuse To Agree To Oil Revenue Distribution Plan This requires an equal division of resources between the 18 provinces and is essential to assure Sunnis they have a future in Iraq: the Sunni areas do not have oil and therefore no viable source of revenue unless the Kurds and Shias agree to share.

0230 GMT January 22, 2007

• Iran Training Shia Militias To attack US/UK Troops says London Times, quoting US intelligence officials. Men in batches of 20 are being trained in Iran from both the Badr and al-Sadr militias to fight US/UK armor and aircraft (read helicopters, as the capability against tactical air will be near zero) with ATGMs and SAMs. The Iranians want an end to the hit and run attacks that are currently Iraqis favorite tactic, and which has proved to be quite a useless tactic. We assume targeted ambushes will become the order of the day, and this is much more sensible.

• Yesterday was not a good day for US forces, with 25 soldiers killed due to enemy action. 12 were in a UH-60 that eyewitnesses say was shot down by a team of six men who were busy planting roadside bombs when US helicopters flew over. 13 soldiers died in other actions.

• Meanwhile, 2nd Brigade 82nd Division has now fully deployed to Baghdad, and will become operational on 1st February.

• Reports say al-Sadr militia is laying low, with many commanders having switched off their cell phones. All to the general good, and all this work will be for nothing because the US has clearly indicate it will withdraw the extra troops from Baghdad in a few months.

• British sources say al-Malaki, the Iraqi PM, wanted US forces to leave Baghdad. Mr. Bush instead decided to add to the troop levels. Not that Mr. al-Malaki's word is worth anything, but it is not a good augury that the US has launched such a high risk operation completely at cross purposes with what its allied government wants, which is fewer US troops. (All the better to kill Sunnis, of course.)

• Al-Sadr, al-Malaki Go Kissey Face Just in case Washington fails to note that the Iraqi PM has been giving it and its new war plans the One-Finger Salute, the PM and al-Sadr have made up. Al-Sadr has lifted his boycott of parliament and his MPs will resume cooperating with the government.

• Wait a minute, you say, isn't the point of the new US operation to get rid of al-Sadr? Didn't the Iraqi PM say he would disarm all militias ruthlessly?

• Precisely, mon ami and all that. The Iraq PM said a great deal, but his intentions toward his best buddy al-Sadr were never in doubt regardless of what the US wanted to believe. Now even the most loveably naive optimists in Washington will have to face the truth - which seems to be known to everyone except those who came up with the new Baghdad plan. And the truth is represented by a simple equation: al-Sadr equals al-Malak equals al-Sadr.

0230 GMT January 21, 2007

• Kurd Troops Deserting Iraq Army according to an article from the Assyrian News Agency forwarded by reader Marcopetroni. They do not want to serve in Baghdad, where their inability to speak Arabic and distinctive features would make them targets.

• The Kurds are Sunnis but are not Arabs. They do not want to get caught up in the Iraqi civil war, which is just what we had predicted some days ago. In the event Iraq falls apart, their intent is to grab the northern oilfields and declare themselves independent. If Iraq stays together they count on their militias and their men openly infiltrated into the Iraq Army to maintain the maximum degree of autonomy.

• Whereas the brigade reinforcing Baghdad from the south has 2700 soldiers, or about 85% of TO by our estimate, only 1200 men from each of the two Kurd territory brigades are being sent. The explanation is obvious: the rest of the men are not considered reliable. We would not be overly surprised if the 2400 troops are mainly non-Kurd.

• This problem of getting men who enlisted wanting serve only in their regions to serve elsewhere has bedeviled the Iraq Army from its formation.

• Iraq Army Expansion As planned last year, the Iraq Army has begun its "expansion". 35,000 troops are to be added along with one divisional HQ and several brigades. We gather the new division is to be equipped with wheeled armored personnel carriers; we assume the 9th Division will continue building up as a mechanized division.

• The reason for our skepticism about the expansion is that Iraqi units are averaging between 50-80% of TO, with a great many men routinely deserting, or claiming lengthy leaves, or being carried on the rolls as ghost soldiers, allowing commanders to claim for their self-enrichment pay and allowances for the missing soldiers. We doubt the increased ceiling of 35,000 will translate into an equivalent number of units/formations. US has previously said an objective of the increased ceiling is to provide for men on leave.

• Last Major Somalia Warlord Surrenders to the transitional government, says the BBC. He has sent 200+ of his militia to join the new national army.

• On the very limited information we have, we estimate the new army has somewhere around nine battalions in 3 brigades. BBC had previously given the army a strength of 6,000 as warlord militia swelled its ranks and men from the old national army were recalled. We estimated its strength at 2,000 before the offensive which ended Islamic Courts rule began.

• US urges government to talk to moderate Islamic Courts leaders.

• It is being said 3 battalions of an eventual 9 from an African Union force are being prepared for Somalia duty. Two are Ugandan. Nonetheless, very serious problem remain before a 9-battalion deployment can materialize. Aside from the extreme reluctance of neighbors to get militarily involved in Somalia, the AU has said it wants a UN force to take over after 6-months. There is no sign the UN is ready to do this.

• African Union Peacekeeping The AU is already committed to Darfur and other trouble spots and its forces are suffering from a lack of money and heavy weapons.

• Nonetheless, we suggest readers view the AU peacekeeping missions as a glass half full rather than half empty. Anyone familiar with the terrible wars that have ravaged Africa after the colonial era closed will appreciate that at very long last, the Africans are themselves taking responsibility as best they can for their continent.

• The US has played the major role in helping the Africans to do so, and US achievements have been made with pathetically small sums of money, a few hundred troops, and an enormous amount of work on the part of the State Department. AU peacekeeping represents a laudable success for US foreign policy.

0230 GMT January 20, 2007

• Iraq: Same Old, Same Old US commanders expect al-Sadr to avoid direct confrontation with American forces. In our opinion, if al-Sadr has really adopted a non-confront strategy - as we had said was indicated to us - he is being wise. The Americans have, after all, said they will drawn down in Baghdad as soon as the capital is secure. Al-Sadr should, logically, HELP the Americans to secure Baghdad. After they leave, he can take over.

• US commanders are aware that AL-Sadr will simply send his militia to other parts of Iraq to take over new territory while they are in Baghdad. But then, US military has never deluded itself about Iraq. Its the administration that has permanently rented a large suite of rooms in La La Land Hotel.

• US has arrested a senior aide of al-Sadr.

• But the arrest of 400 militia as claimed by the prime minister has less to it than meets the eye. It covers mainly militia arrested in the south, and includes men detained in the fighting between government forces and al-Sadr in one southern town - this happened months ago.

• Al-Sadr has come out saying Not Nice things about al-Malaki. The rabid dog is baring his fangs.

• US is going to be in a very difficult position is al-Sadr men start sniping and IED-ing US troops in Baghdad at the same time as al-Sadr says they are not his men and if he catches them, he will punish them/hand them over to the US. He can then capture Shia militiamen opposed to him and hand them over.

• In other words, the mess continues.

• 3 Somalia Warlords Disarm leaving 4 others of consequence to be dealt with. Meanwhile, Ethiopia says it will start withdrawing in a few days.

• Somali Army now has 6,000 troops, taking into account militia that have come over from warlord forces.

• Republic of Somaliland, which has been running as an independent entity for over a decade, is upset that Somali government says the republic is part of the country. We see no reason why Mogadishu will not agree to the same autonomy for Somaliland that has been given to Puntland, but there is no indication Somaliland will voluntarily give up its independence.

• A minor incident of gunfire took place when attackers fired on the President's residence in Mogadishu. Government and Ethiopian troops retaliated and the attackers withdrew. This sort of thing is to be expected while government works to consolidate its hold on the country. We'd advise the media not to get overly excited.

• President Chavez Continues March To Dictatorship His parliament has granted him initial approval to rule by decree for 18 months. Please don't bet against this period being extended.

• We are not at all bothered by the events in Venezuela and we are glad the US is avoiding interference. When the time comes, the people will straighten out Mr. Chavez as they have straightened out dictators all over the continent. Just keep giving the man rope and give him no excuses to rally the people against America. That was the mistake the US made on Castro, who would otherwise long ago have gone to obscurity.

• Meanwhile, ex-insurgent commander Daniel Ortega has taken over Nicaragua's government and says he will operate democratically. US says that's lovely, and they'll work with him as long as there is no funny stuff. Both sides are being wise.

0230 GMT January 19, 2007

• US Wrong To Criticize PRC ASAT Test PRC launched a ballistic missile at an old satellite orbiting about 500 km up and apparently scored a kinetic kill. US among other nations says this is Not Nice as space has to be reserved for peaceful use.

• We don't make any secret of our intense dislike for PRC. Its system of government is repulsive, and it is a natural enemy of both India and the US.

• Nonetheless, one has to be fair. The US makes maximum use of space for military purposes - hardly surprising given the US is world leader in space and US doctrine calls for maintaining superiority across all threats against all adversaries, actual and potential. The US has a right to do this, and PRC also has a right to use space for military purposes as best as it can.

• As far as we know, US has no need to test direct kill vehicles against satellites. For one thing, the ABM program likely has a built-in ASAT component: if you can hit a RV or IRV coming in at 15,000 kmph or whatever, knocking out a satellite serenely proceeding in a regular orbit should be a piece of cake. Two, US seems to be focusing on laser weapons rather than direct kill. Right now - again as far as we know - the US has only the capacity to blind satellites with lasers, not to destroy them outright. But then, knocking out a satellite's sensors is as good as blowing it up.

• 1st Ever US Warship Sale To India as the LPD Trenton of 1971 commissioning leaves US service and is commissioned into the Indian Navy. Military.com says the 17,000-ton ship will be second-largest in the Indian Navy, after its aircraft carrier. India will use it for logistics support and relief.

• Oil Falls Below $50 and the debate is lively as to what this means for future prices.

• On the one hand: reduced US demand due to mild weather and unexpected inventory buildup is said to be the reason. This may reverse for any number of reasons.

• On the other hand: people have been saying for months that oil at $60, $70, and above is not justified by economic factors. Speculation because of concerns the US might attack Iran and the latter might retaliate by closing Hormuz had pushed oil well above prices justified by demand. Hot money cannot just sit around: it can push up prices of commodity X very rapidly, but if there is no profit to be made, speculators book their gains/losses and move on to something else. Since the US is not about to attack Iran due to messing up Iraq, speculators are unloading futures.

• Our theory, a slight modification of the above, is that the west built up big stocks of oil against the Hormuz scenario, and is now letting stocks run down.

• Please note as US dollar has depreciated considerably over the last couple of years, and as oil trade works in dollars, producers have suffered a much more serious price slide than the south of $50 price may indicate.

0230 GMT January 18, 2007

• Iraqi PM Says He Wants Guns, US Troops Can Go Goodness Gracious, we just caint get no respect from these Iraa-kees, but what to do, we have to slog on for their own good. The statement was made to the London Times. Mr. al-Malaki said that the US refusal to properly arm Iraqi forces has cost many lives in the Baghdad battle.

• What the good Mr. al-Malaki is really saying is that by refusing to properly arm Iraq forces, which are mainly Shia, the US is getting in the way of the Shias slaughtering the Sunnis, after which there will be no terrorism because there won't be any Sunnis left. They will either be dead or expelled from Shia Iraq.

• The US has been reluctant to fully arm the Iraqis for exactly the above reasons, and because Shia soldiers/police desert with monotonous frequency - with their weapons - to join the Shia militias. Many are sent to join the government forces primarily to get training and access to weapons; when the mission is achieved, they return to their parent militias.

• In a sense Mr. al-Malaki is not saying anything new. He has repeatedly said he wants a US troop drawdown and wants solely the means to handle the insurgency himself - same thing as above.

• Captured Taliban Spokesperson Says Mullah Omar In Pakistan and is being protected by Pakistan Inter services Intelligence in the Balochistan capital city of Quetta. This gentleman was captured some days ago. He has also said that the former ISI chief, Hamid Gul, has been supporting the Taliban.

• Our reaction is the same as yesterday: a big yawn. Someone please give us some real news, not the stuff the whole world and his retarded uncle already know.

• Pakistan has issued the usual denial. Another big yawn.

• Incidentally, re the figure of 150 Taliban claimed killed the other day as they crossed from Pakistan, the number appears to be less than 100.

• SICRI Chief Attacks US Over Iranian Arrests If the US thought that the making nice between SICRI and the US spilled over to Iran, they just be sadly disappointed. SICRI is the other powerful Shia group in Iraq besides al-Sadr faction. Many SICRI leaders received asylum in Iran during Saddam's time and retain close ties with that regime. US has been going after the Iranians operating to create mischief and mayhem in Iraq, but - surprise surprise - the Iraqis are irate about the 5 "consular" officials the US arrested in Irbil and refuses to let go. US says the officials belong to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and have been liaising with Iraqi insurgent groups re the supply of money and weapons.

• The Iranians also have something going with the Kurds. As for the Shias, Iran has long been accused of arming Shia militias. And since the Iranians are also supplying the Sunnis, they are being equal opportunity: anything is okay as long as it kills Americans.

• That doesn't stop a lot of people from claiming it is the US that is being aggressive toward Iran. well, Iran is not just being aggressive toward the Americans, it is at war with the Americans. US estimates that in 2006 nearly 200 US troops were killed by the super-large IEDs that are made in Iran and smuggled into Iraq.

• Israeli Chief Of Staff Resigns ahead of a report that is expect to put the blame for the Hezbollah war fiasco on his desk.

• Meanwhile, it seems senior Israeli commanders still don't get it. One has been wondering how Hezbollah can see the war as a victory even though IDF killed 4-500 fighters, destroyed its long-range missiles, and destroyed thousands of targets in Lebanon.

• Frankly, we have enough problems with Americans who are idiots and Indians who are idiots. We are not going to waste time over Israelis who are idiots. If senior Israelis think they won the Hezbollah war, then we're just going to have to let them live their fantasy lives.

• By the way, there are insistent rumors the Israelis are going to have another go at Hezbollah. The very existence of these rumors is itself proof of the proposition Israeli lost. If it won, why bother attacking Hezb again?

• Also by the way, we don't put much credence on the rumors. It would be political insanity for the Israelis to fire up the Lebanon front again. On the other hand, given the political insanity Israel's patron the US has been showing time and again, why should anyone expect the Israelis to behave any more sensibly.

• Debka Says Hezb Missile Strength Restored In the matter of Hezb's rebuild following the war, our information has fairly much agreed with Debka's. This is quite a change, because normally we find Debka makes wild exaggerations - and our sources say it often does so deliberately because it has a political agenda.

• We cannot, however, speak to details such as Debka has been doing.

• Nonetheless, we found Debka's allegations concerning Hamas and other organizations' buildup in Palestine to be false.

0230 GMT January 17, 2007

• NATO/US Say Taliban Attacks Increase by 300% since Pakistan signed an agreement with its rebellious tribals to leave them alone in exchange for promises the tribals would not tolerate cross-border attacks from Pakistan into Afghanistan.

• Our reaction: a big yawn. This is supposed to be news? It's like saying "Gee, the sun has gone down so it will rise again tomorrow." There was absolutely no doubt that attacks would increase once the Pakistan army decided to leave the tribals alone. We have said several times that acting against the Taliban is not in Pakistan's interests, so why should it be expected to do so just because the Caliph in Washington has issued a firman?

• There have to be consequences, tough consequences, for actively aiding and abetting war against the US and its allies. But - as we said after Hezbollah gave Israel a bloody nose and blind US support for Israel plunged US prestige to new depths - that one of the consequences of that very serious miscalculation by the US was that Pakistan was no longer as afraid of the US as it had been previously. The peace deal with the tribals was a not-at-all subtle kiss-off. Apparently Washington is yet to get the message.

• China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Reach $1-Trillion and the PRC further insults US by letting the yuan, previously fixed at 8.2 to the dollar, float to 7.8, or appreciate by about 5%. This is akin to throwing scraps to a starving supplicant, and frankly, while the poohbahs in Washington are still high on some fantasy of American global might, the PRC has made its position on the yuan about as clear as anyone can make it: please stop bothering us about the exchange rate, we are not interested in what problems it is causing you, we know your greedy China lobby will stop any meaningful effort to punish us, now just kindly go away and invade some pathetic country and leave us alone.

0230 GMT January 16, 2007

• The 3rd Battle For Baghdad: Rumors & Facts The first battle, against Saddam's army, was handily won by the Americans. The second battle, in 2006, was an American defeat. Now the stage is being set for the third battle, which we predict the Americans will initially win, and then lose as they move out to pacify Anbar.

• Rumor: Al-Sadr has told his militia not to react even if the Americans attack. Sensible, but it is only a rumor.

• Fact: Al-Sadr Is Preparing for Baghdad Episode 3 US military intelligence says the flow of weapons to his militia has accelerated, including the supply of super-IEDs manufactured in Iran.

• Rumor: Al-Sadr militia has split and only 1/3rd is under his effective control.

• Counter rumor: His militia has not split and he has pretended to distance himself from the more extreme factions only to create plausible deniability. In any case, once the American attack the militia will reunite.

• Fact: The 1st American reinforcements have arrived in Baghdad though an American military source says figures of 4000 troops arriving are exaggerated. Presumably this is the brigade of the 82nd Division that arrived very recently in Kuwait.

• Rumor that is quite plausible Iraq will not send 3 brigades to Baghdad as promised. For Baghdad  Episode 2 the Iraqis managed to scrape up only 2 battalions, a third of what they had promised for Op Forward Together or whatever the fiasco was called.

• Fact: Al-Sadr militia has moved west of the river This has been known for some time: the militia has been engaged in ethnic cleansing in the predominantly Sunni districts west of the river. So US forces will come into immediate battle against al-Sadr unless he chooses not to fight.

• Unknown No one is talking about Iraq's 8 Special Police brigades which are largely deployed in Baghdad. They report to the al-Sadr friendly Interior Ministry, and deploy as much firepower as the army's brigades. They are not included in the American plan for Baghdad Episode 3 as all they want to do is to kill Sunnis. The unknown is: will they quietly sit by as the Americans proceed against the Shia militias or will they openly join al-Sadr?

• Fact: Baghdad Episode 3 will take 6-7 months US sources are being rather cautious, saying there will be no immediate improvement in the security situation. They say results will become evident only 2-3 months after operations start in February and victory will require 6-7 months. When asked what happens after that, US sources say they HOPE that Iraqi forces will be able to hold cleared areas on their own. Carry on hoping, folks.

• Fact: Iraqi Army has performed miserably in Baghdad Episode 2 So how come it will now suddenly become effective? You see, the American trainers now being attached in greater numbers to Iraqi units will train them better and motivate them better. Of course they will. Old saying in Iowa: You can crown a pig as king, but you can't stop it from wallowing in slime.

• Somalia Bans 3 Broadcasters and Silences Al-Jazeera as part of the martial law crackdown. There are many broadcasters and the rest are unaffected.

• Troops have begun search-and-confiscate for weapons in Mogadishu. In another part of Somalia, the usual punch-out between clans competing for water and grazing has resulted in several deaths.

• In Kenya, police arrest a Somalia militant "top leader" on his way to a refugee camp.

• India and Pakistan Open Survey To Demarcate Southern Marsh Border This is the 100-km Sir Creek border in the Kutch. The failure to demarcate it clearly in 1947 has led to continual trouble between the two nations.

• Nine previous rounds of talks since 1969 have failed to resolve the issue.

• By itself this is not a major matter, but if both sides can peacefully agree on a demarcation, the momentum may carry over to other unresolved border issues.

• Monster Rabbits We suggest readers are cold sober before they look at the picture in this article http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25689-2543514,00.html

0230 GMT January 15,  2006

• Wait A Minute, Buster: Not So Fast We received a letter that quite floored us. "Dear Orbat, thank you for opposing the Iraq War and relentlessly exposing both America's flawed strategy and the administration's incompetence." We were so mortified we stopped reading at that point.

• Guys, hold it a minute here. We were not, and are not, opposed to the Iraq war. We supported, and still support, the war. Our complaint has been with the moronic way it has been conducted. We believe the situation is now so bad, and that the resources now needed to win are so large, that neither can we win, nor will the American people agree to what needs to be done to win.

• We blame ourselves for not seeing what was going in Iraq until it began obvious to the biggest idiots - including us - that everything had gone wrong. The US administration has been very, very good at controlling the news coming out of Iraq. It was the only agency that could provide a coherent view of events in Iraq, and it systematically chose to deceive the American people by putting so much spin on events that even a neutron star would feel ashamed of its sluggish rotation by comparison.

• Our situation was not helped by the critics or the media. In the first 3 years of the war, their analyses/criticism were so petty, so uninformed, so blindly and foolishly anti-military, that we spent all our time setting the record right and did not see the military was brilliantly winning the battles but losing the war because the politicians were mangling every policy so badly. As for the media, because of the dangers, the press of all shades simply stopped reporting what was happening in Iraq. On top of that, no one in the media had the competency required to paint a broad, dispassionate picture.

• It is only when the Samarra Mosque was destroyed and Iraq's civil war began in earnest that it started to occur to us that things were not what we had been told. The failure of the 2006 Baghdad surge was soon evident, not least because the military refused to whitewash its lack of success. For us the final straw was the Marine intelligence report saying the war was being lost.

• We Would Still Support Victory if the administration would do what's neccessary. But we became very concerned that Iraq is draining resources needed for the global war on terror. We do not want victory in Iraq if it means defeat everywhere else.

• We've gone over some figures between ourselves and have published our conclusions. Since then the situation in Iraq has gone from bad to worse so fast that our initial estimates are not viable any more. We now think armed forces of 3.5-4 million are needed, with 4-500,000 troops in Iraq alone. That implies a draft, somewhere around 8% of the GNP spent on defense, and limitless patience.

• Yes, America can afford this. The point then really becomes, is this the best way to fight the GWOT? And what is the point of spending all that money when by many measures America itself is cracking up? Some estimates of what is needed to rebuild American infrastructure alone run to $3-trillion - and that was some years ago; the figure is probably approaching double. What about the schools, health care, the environment, R and D, and what about the burgeoning national debt? These matters need equal attention or America will end up like Great Britain in 1945: victorious, but so hollowed out by the two World Wars that its empire, built over a span of three centuries, disappeared overnight.

• Maybe The Italians Have It Right Reader Marcopetroni sent us an article on the Italians in Afghanistan. They are not permitted to fight except in self defense. So they have put all their energy into development and training for their sector. The result has been astonishing: the local people are so happy that they do not allow either Taliban or insurgents to operate. Anyone knows no insurgency can succeed without the support of the people.

• Agreed the Italian case is simplistic and that the threat is low. Yet, as we now know, as much as 40% of Afghanistan is under threat with the local/national government failing to some substantial degree because even though the threats are low level, the people have no security and so must make their peace with the insurgents.

• We Are Not Saying The Italian Example Is The Answer But if you read what General David Petraeus, the American guru of CI warfare is saying, it pretty much coincides with the Italian approach. You have to have the military do this new kind of war because this kind of war is dangerous and requires backbreaking effort. But in this kind of war the main focus is on helping the locals, not on fighting the insurgents - even if the insurgents are attacking you and the locals.

• We are saying America needs to rethink all aspects of the GWOT. Since 9/11, all our decision making has been conducted by a bunch of failed losers. It is not just Iraq, it is homeland security, it is every corner of the world where we are fighting terrorists. In order to rethink everything from ground up, and in order to conserve our resources, we need to get out of Iraq because we cannot win with the current level of troops or even double that - even if double were politically possible.

US Strategy For Baghdad

• The US will divide Baghdad into 9 sectors, and each sector into 3 mini-sectors. A US brigade and an Iraqi brigade will be assigned to each sector, with presumably an Iraqi battalion per mini-sector. The Americans will locate inside each sector: its important to realize that currently they come in to make sweeps and then leave for their secure bases.

• The above is a variant of the old Search and Destroy of Vietnam with exactly the same problems, so it is now hoped that with the American forces staying inside, a continuous presence will be maintained.

• It is expected, reasonably enough, that US casualties will rise: not only will more American troops be on the streets, their secure bases will now be in the city.

• It is expected that sectors will be cleared of insurgents one by one, and that movement between sectors will be controlled by roadblocks and ID cards. The US wants to start in mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods to show its evenhandness; the Shia prime minister is already letting it be known as far as he is concerned the problem is the Sunnis and he will not be happy if the US goes after the Shias as well. The way to handle al-Sadr, he says, is to bash the Sunnis so hard they no longer present a threat and then al-Sadr will be out of a job.

• We refrain from rudely going "Hahahahahaha". This strategy is predicated on hope rather than reality because Iraqi army/police is going to have to take the lead, and it is just plain silly to think Shia troops/police are going to turn on Shias - see below.

• To those interested: Baghdad is garrisoned by five brigades of the Iraqi 6th Division and one of the 9th Mechanized Division. Three brigades, including two Kurdish brigades, are to reinforce. These include one brigade from the 2nd Division, which leaves a big sector open in Kurdistan, and one from the 1st Division at Fallujah, which creates all sorts of problems. Presumably the US Marine reinforcements will replace the 1st Division brigade. The last brigade is to come from the south, which means from either the 8th or 10th Divisions. Good luck there too, because every effective is needed in the south to keep the warring Shia factions apart.

• There are seven US brigades in and around Baghdad. We presume on incomplete information that 4 brigades will reinforce. With 9 deployed inside the city's sectors, that would leave 2 as a reserve. The fifth US reinforcing brigade may go elsewhere, possibly to Anbar.

• US strategy is two-stepped. First, clear the city west of the river, and then cross to the east to take on al-Sadr. We have no doubt the US has the ability to defeat al-Sadr if he stands and fights; we also have no doubt that well before US troops have any effect on him, he will slip away most of his militia, leaving enough - and recruiting more - to daily harass the Americans. If instead of typical 3 American dead a day the total rises to 10+, there could be a problem back home: the press knows the majority of Americans don't support the war any more, and they will down on the casualties issue like flies on cow patties.

• After clearing out al-Sadr the Americans will move to Anbar; at which point al-Sadr will return to Baghdad - if his forces leave to begin with. Also, the Anbar insurgents will move into Baghdad: this has already happened at least once, when in 2005 the Marines were beating the daylights out of the Anbar insurgents. Then the Marines had to start withdrawing troops and the rest you know.

• It is not entirely clear to us that Sadr will pull out of Baghdad. he is a bellicose youngster; he has a great deal more by way of manpower and firepower than he did in Najaf in 2004, and he is on his home ground with 2 million people. The Iraqi army/police are NOT going to go after him with the possible exception of a few thousand, and when they get seriously smacked by his militia even these men will pull out. If the Americans try and replace al-Malaki with a Shia leader from the SICRI/Najaf faction, say goodbye to the Iraq Army/Police which we anticipate will desert enmasse to al-Sadr because they are his men to begin with.

• If al-Sadr uses the Fallujah strategy in Sadr City, there is going to be such a huge mess that the Americans are going to rue the day they went after him. Civilians are going to die in enormous numbers. This didn't happen in Fallujah because (1) it is a much smaller place; (2) the US worked to get the civilians out; and (3) basically the US simply killed anything that moved, and blew up every building. Most of the people in Fallujah had no stake in fighting the US, one reason they left. This will not happen in Sadr City. There is nowhere for the 2-million people to go, most will be ready to stay and fight, and those that want to leave will be stopped by the militia.

• In Najaf the population remained neutral in the battle because they were anti-Sadr Shias. This will not happen in Sadr City.

• Also please note: the US used 4-5 brigades against an estimated 3000 fighters. In Sadr City they will face at least ten times that number.

• Also please note: al-Sadr has been given plenty of time to prepare. The US surge will not complete till late spring; in any case, if the Iraqis show little or no enthusiasm for fighting against their Shia compatriots west of the river, the US will not send in the extra troops and then everyone can simply go home.

• Which raises the question: why not just everyone go home now and save themselves the trouble?

• We find it just very hard to digest that grown men and women have come up with such a lame and stupid strategy, one that requires Shias to fight Shias, and relies on the word of a Shia prime minister who sleeps with al-Sadr.

• As for replacing al-Malaki: why should the SICRI/Najaf Shias agree to do anything? They can simply sit on the sidelines, watch al-Malaki and the al-Sadr lot be politically/militarily attacked by the Americans, and then step into the vacuum on their own terms. why should they risk the wrath of all Shias by fighting their brothers at the behest of the Americans? Fighting al-Sadr's faction because the Americans said to do it, and fighting because they want to do it, are two different things.

• Also, remember regime change in Vietnam?

0230 GMT January 14,  2006

My American President As A Comedian

• It's true that since the editor is not a US citizen, technically Mr. Bush is not his president. Nonetheless, the editor has liked Mr. Bush from the day he became the Republican candidate for president, and continues to like him. He is not clever like Mr. Clinton, but then no one can be clever like Mr. Clinton. We use the word "clever" in the sense the English use it; it is not a compliment. And, after all, if your editor can consider President Hugo Chavez to be his homey, why not President Bush?

• President Bush has a very preppy sense of humor. His jokes are delivered with a straight face and in a most serious tone, and are usually at his own expense. It takes a very confident and humble person to make jokes at his own expense. Six years after Mr. Bush became president, your editor can confidently say he knows when Mr. Bush is joking and when he is not.

• That is why your editor says that Mr. Bush was simply having one on all of us yesterday when he said that if people didn't like his Iraq plan, they could suggest one of their own.

• This was a particularly sophisticated joke, because everyone knows Mr. Bush and his 7 Stooges are solely, completely, absolutely responsible for the Iraq debacle. They have messed it up big time. They have put America in a hole it cannot climb out of, leaving as the only alternative a continued digging of the hole till we emerge on the other side of the world.

• The joke is actually extra particularly sophisticated, because Mr. Bush has refused to listen to anyone disagreeing with him/7 Stooges these past 4 years, and he has chosen the moment when things are so bad that we've passed rock bottom to say - "What's your plan, moe?", knowing full well that matters are so badly snafu'ed that no one, but no one, can come up with any plan that makes sense, leave alone a better one than Mr. Bush's.

• No One Except Us At Orbat.com, That Is Hold the applause, folks, we're modest people and get easily embarrassed. In fact, we're turning quite red just as the thought of the applause our plan will generate. A sharp intake of breath and a soft "you are so brilliant!" will suffice as praise for us, if you happen to be a beautiful, intelligent, and wealthy lady. If you don't happen, don't be disappointed: a hearty slap on the back and a strong, manly, wordless wringing of the hand will do. We ask people to wring their own hands please, as manly people have grips like a starving alligator happening on a deliciously plump Donald Trump or Rosie McDonnell lost in a Georgia swamp.

• Our Plan In 3 Words Everyone knows Americans are Attention Deficit, which goes to show how little everyone knows. When it comes to watching 168 hours of incredibly stupid celebrity TV, no one can demonstrate greater attention than Americans. Nonetheless, why take chances when you have to compete with celebrity TV, so we have KISSed our Iraq plan into 3 short words.

• Just Get Out There you have it folks, our complete plan. No Ifs and Buts that were Candy and Nuts and no Christmases All Year Round. Just Get Out.

• Our Rationale Is Tres Simple Proposition Primo: the American public will not accept any plan that assures victory because they don't think Iraq is worth the resources/sacrifices a winning plan requires. Proposition Secondo: therefore all plans acceptable to the people are pre-determined to fail. Which leads inexorably to Proposition Tertio: Just Get Out.

News And Such

• Martial Law In Somalia and the parliamentary vote to impose it was 154-2. We assume the MPs supporting the ICU were absent, but this need not have been the case for every one of them: some are likely to have made their peace with the government.

• Readers James Freemon and Walter Wallis are not impressed with our saying the US was jeopardizing the safety of its own diplomats/consular officials by busting into the Iranian liaison office in Irbil - or whatever the Iranians call it and walking off with computers, papers, and six staff in handcuffs. Mr. Freemon and Mr. Wallis say that Iran forfeited any rights when the US embassy was overrun and US staff captured.

• Both readers have a point. But at the time there was no real government in Iran, the Khomeni revolution was in full swing and things were pretty chaotic. We don't think the Iranian government would stage a repeat of that episode. It isn't just the Iranians we are concerned about: there are plenty of dictators and other nasty people who would love to stick it to the US if they could.

• We learn from the media that the "diplomatic" office was actually staffed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard people, and its job was to get arms, terrorists, and spies into Iraq.

• We've patiently waited for someone to ask the obvious question - and perhaps someone has asked but we don't know about it. Why are the Kurds, in effect, helping Iran to destabilize Iraq and in the process kill Americans? We can think of all sorts of reasons, none happy-making.

• The Kurds have been - at least till now - America's firmest supporters in the Middle East. yes, dare we say it, even more so than the Israelis, who usually create more trouble for America than they are worth. But ever since America vetoed the Iraq partition plan, in effect telling the Kurds they would be expended as and when neccessary, we suspect the Kurds have decided to review their options.

• The Kurds are Iran's natural enemies because they claim part of Iran as included in their hoped for independent Kurd nation. But this being the Mideast, there are no natural enemies and no natural friends. Everyone is a bird of passage and looks for the main chance.

• Of course, the US doesn't any more want an independent Kurd state for more reasons than wanting to keep Iraq together. There are those surly Turks to be appeased - why we haven't figured out because Turkey is no longer the reliable American ally it once was. There are other reasons. But here once again the US government is learning: America cannot enforce its unilateral will on everyone in the world. America pushes one way, people push back.

• Few Americans concerned with the operational side of things will have failed to get the message from the Kurds: you hurt us, we'll hurt you right back. Just another complication is an already dismal situation.

0230 GMT January 13,  2006

• Last ICU Stronghold Falls to Somalia/Ethiopian troops. They overran Ras Kamboni yesterday. ICU remnants are hiding in the mangrove forests/swamps on the Kenya border. Our information is that most ICU militia escaped from Ras Kamboni. Their problem now is that their sanctuary is not the ideal place from which to rebuild. All borders, including the sea frontier, are held by hostile forces so resupply is going to be very difficult. The locals are few and cannot support 2000 or so fighters even if they are inclined to do so.

• At some point government forces are going to have to go in and clean out the ICU; at this point there is no great enthusiasm for the job and in any case the focus must be on rebuilding the Somali Army.

• 7 Somali Warlords To Lay Down Arms As we are unfamiliar with Somali clans, we cannot say if the warlords are major or minor ones. At any rate, seven agreed in Mogadishu to disarm and to integrate their forces with the new army. Providing money is forthcoming and the government is fair between tribes - both dicey assumptions - most militias have an incentive to disarm. The Somali civil war has been first, last, foremost a battle between clans for resources.

• US Troops May Be Operating Inside Syria, Iran interdicting the flow of insurgents and supplies into Iraq. There have been rumors of this for quite some time, and it is logical, but we believe the evidence is strong this time.

• Of course, we get into problems of definition. If the occasional CIA or SF team gets across the border for a few days, that is troops operating inside the countries, but is of no great import. If however, US forces are regularly conducting these reconnaissances and raids, then this is an entirely different manner.

• In any event, we highly approve. Its time these two terror-instigating countries were smacked on the hand. Both have highly paranoid regimes, and assuming the reports of US troops are correct, we are certain the effort both regimes are putting into hunting US intruders will be intense and costly. For once it will be the US leveraging a small number of men into creating a big problem for the adversaries.

• And given the way these regimes operate, their secret services too will be working overtime to protect the regime from imaginary - and perhaps real too - threats from the US.

• Debka.com On 2nd Battle For Baghdad http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1248 We give this URL without any of our own comments as frankly at this time we have no real clue what the US is going to do after Baghdad is reinforced.

• Insurgent sources say the battle for Haifa street is still continuing. If so, this is bad news on one level: the insurgents would seem to be fighting hard and not running. On another its good news: the insurgents wouldn't be fighting so hard  unless they had a serious infrastructure to protect, and however the Iraqi forces perform, once the Americans get into the fight the insurgents will lose in this area. Of course, they simply have to wait till the US deploys out of Baghdad and into Anbar before returning.

• The Editor Implores Foreign Female Spies To Seduce Him We learn from London Times the bad guys have been slipping tiny transmitters hidden inside Canadian $2 coins into the pockets of US defense contractors who were traveling through Canada. We also learn a female foreign spy seduced an American to get his computer passwords.

• Notice to all attractive female foreign spies: Orbat.com's editor is privy to enormous numbers of secrets, has a phenomenal number of computer passwords that will unlock the secret messages he uses to control his global network of spies - the messages are incorporated into the daily update, which is why on many occasions it appears not to make sense - and he is very available as a victim for seduction operations. The latest info to come his way concerns the brand of toilet paper used by the CIA's Baghdad station chief. We did say the editor was privy to many secrets, didn't we?

0230 GMT January 12,  2006

• US Says None of 3 Somali Al-Qaeda Targets Killed Earlier the Somalis said one of the 3 most wanted AQ terrorists in Somalia had been killed in US strike, presumably the one delivered by an AC-130.

• US Detains 6 Iranians In Irbil and the Kurds and Iranians are very upset about it. The Iranians had just opened a consulate in Irbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurd region, with the permission of the Iraqi Government. The Iranians are said to be consular officials. Iranian press says the raid was conducted by men landing on the roof of its consulate from 5 helicopters. The attackers warned those inside in 3 languages to surrender or be killed. Computers and papers were also taken away.

• The US has come forth with some mumbo jumbo about their not being present at a properly designated diplomatic place and there was no raid, they knocked politely and were asked to enter. Ha ha, how funny: Iranians in their consulate respond politely to US troops and invite them in so that the consulate can be ransacked and employees arrested.

• Now, we understand how frustrating things are for the US because the Iranians are misusing diplomatic cover to support terrorist activities. But when the US creates incidents like this, it is weakening the diplomatic protections enjoyed by its own diplomats. The treaties made in this regard are agreed to by everyone because each country wants protection for its personnel who may or may not be above board in their activities in their host country.

• NATO Kills 150 Insurgents as two batches crossed into Afghanistan from Pakistan in convoys that included ammunition trucks.

• Just the other day the Pakistani ambassador to Washington was saying how hard the Pakistanis are working to prevent infiltration into Afghanistan. Now, the ambassador is an honorable person, but the question to be asked is how truck convoys can evade Pakistani border posts in a mountain region.

• The oft-given figure of 80,000 troops deployed on the Afghan border is complete hog-manure. The Pakistan Army is not on the border and is either in its cantonments or fighting Baloch separatists. The Frontier Corps paramilitary troops are there to do internal policing as much as man border posts, and they are absolutely not to be trusted on border duty because they are ethnic kith and kin of the insurg