0230 GMT May 31, 2007
A slow news day.
UN Approves Lebanon Tribunal The UN Security Council voted 10-0 with five abstentions to set up a tribunal to try the killers of former Prime Minister and presidential candidate Rafiq Harari. The move is expected to shore up international support for the current government, but also to increase tensions in Lebanon. Syria is believed to be behind the killing: Mr. Harari was pro-west and anti-Syria. While from the west's viewpoint reducing/eliminating Syria's influence in Lebanon is an imperative, a large number of Lebanese see the Syrians as protectors. Consequently, the Lebanese government/parliament/presidency is deadlocked on the matter of a trial for the suspected killers.
We are of two minds on the UN decision. Anything that smacks Syria is welcome to us. The country is an anti-American dictatorship that is very seriously interfering in Iraq. On the other hand, the tribunal is a major expansion of UN power. It says, in effect, that since a democratically elected government can reach no decision on an important issue, the UN must step in to help one faction against the other. Today that faction happens to be pro-west. Tomorrow, in another country and an another situation, that faction could be anti-western,
Like it or not, Syria has interests in Lebanon. These have been squeezed; Syria has responded in various ways, among these the aiding of anti-US insurgents in Iraq. As western influence in Lebanon grows, Iran is also stepping up its intervention in Lebanon as a counter. Lebanon always has been a fragile multi-ethnic/multi-religious state. The fall-out from the Arab-Israeli conflict has destroyed it once before. In our opinion, the nation cannot survive if it continues to rapidly develop into a new battlefield for the US versus anti-US nations in the Middle East.
We are concerned that the US may be adding to Lebanon's demise. The US is vastly overextended in the GWOT because of the mindless battle for Iraq. The west has already taken a body blow in Lebanon, the rise of Hezbollah. True it previously gave a body blow of its own, by forcing Syrian troops out of Lebanon. But the west in general and US in particular has proved unable to fight terror, which is rapidly growing worldwide. Iran and Syria will respond with terror. The results will not be to the west's advantage.
Turkey Reinforcing Kurdistan Border Normally not a big deal, because this is a summer routine, this being the time of the year Turkey attacks Kurd rebels. This time it may develop into a big deal because Turkey is openly threatening to invade Iraq, ostensibly to clear out Kurd rebels from the mountains, actually to forestall the growing independence of Iraqi Kurds.
In response the US is doing a strange and pathetic dance, flopping around with flapping hands imploring Turkey not to cross the border. No discussion of the unpleasant reality that if Turkey does cross, it's called Aggression. Even the mighty US sought UN cover for its 2001 invasion of Iraq; failing to get general approval, it used the fig leaf of previous UN resolutions. Turkey has not gone through any such process. If it attacks, it will be defending its security interests. But it will be doing so unilaterally in a country the US happens to occupy.
If Turkey gets away with it - and right now the US seems to have no good answers - this will be another blow to US prestige worldwide.
0230 GMT May 30, 2007
A slow news day.
[1230 GMT] CNN says fighting at the refugee camp in Tripoli, Lebanon has resumed as the government expressed impatience with the standoff between Fatah Islam and the Lebanese Army.
Goodbye, Cindy Sheehan The anti-war protester has decided to call it a day. She is going home to bring up her remaining children as best as she can. She is disillusioned because Americans care more about American Idol than about the Iraq War. She is also disillusioned because she insisted on holding the Democratic Party to the same standard she held the GOP, and the Democratic Party failed her. She says she has failed her son whose death in Iraq motivated her to become an anti-war protestor. The Iraq War also failed her, because it's a meaningless war. Her son's death was meaningless, she says.
America, you are sooooooo bad to have failed Ms. Sheehan on every count. Was there ever a society more useless?
Ms. Sheehan's problem from the start was that she thought the thing was about her, and that because she was opposed, we all have to drop everything in life and join her. Talk about self-centered. Most of the country opposes the Iraq War, and while we have not seen figures, we suspect that like us, many people oppose it AND oppose Ms. Sheehan's attempt to capitalize on her son's death.
Regarding her saying her son's death was meaningless, dare we break the sad news to Ms. Sheehan? Most "unnatural" deaths are meaningless - if you really want to be brutal, most deaths, natural or unnatural, are pointless. The God of War specializes in meaningless death. A few soldiers die as heroes. 99.9% die because they happen to be standing in the wrong place at the wrong time. It really is not more complicated than that, for all that we want the death in war of a spouse, child, or parent to mean something. There are very few wars as clean cut as World War II. Vietnam was a pointless war; so was World War I, according to us. Countries have fought pointless wars from when countries first appeared. Iraq is just another pointless war. Why should it have meaning just because Ms. Sheehan's son died?
Thousands of other families have seen their loved one die in Iraq. They feel as much grief as Ms. Sheehan. But they make the death not about themselves, but about their soldier. The most dignified eulogies for those killed in Iraq are the most frequent: "S/he always wanted to serve her/his country by serving in the military; s/he died while doing what s/he loved." We don't know if that was the case with Ms. Sheehan's son. But personally, we think that's a heck of a more meaningful way to die than most ways.
Mr. Putin, Russia, and US ABM Defense Mr. Putin says the US's plans to deploy an ABM missile battery in Central Europe is making Europe into a powder keg. So attempting to defend yourself against offensive weapons makes a situation unstable? We know the mad hatters of the Golden Age of Nuclear Deterrence thought so. Their strategy for buying peace was for both side's to leave themselves vulnerable to the other side's killing blow, thus assuring that if one side started a war, both would die. Therefore neither side would start a war.
What's remarkable, it seems to us, is not that the US jettisoned this astonishingly stupid and suicidal doctrine. It's that Mr. Putin, one of the most coldly logical leaders the modern world has scene is trying to use threats to block the US deployment of a European missile shield.
It's true Russia does not at this time have the money to put up its own shield. It's also true that once deployed, the US ABM system will keep getting better, so that in theory at least it could one day reach the point it could defeat a Russian missile attack, undercutting Russia's strategic nuclear force, and it's main claim to be superpower.
The solution, however, is not to use rhetoric, because this is simply making the US yawn. A person as logical as Mr. Putin should realize that the US is worried about rouge nuclear states and that a start on missile defense is imperative. HE should extend his logic and take the US at its word, and accept its invitation to work with Russia on joint ABM defenses.
We are tempted to make fun of Mr. Putin by noting that each time the issue is raised, the Russians say: "It's all futile, because our latest ICBMs will get through any defenses." Okay, so let's accept the Russian position. Then why should they get worried about the US missile shield? They should, in fact, be encouraging the US to waste money on a pointless defense.
But we like Mr. Putin, despite his anti-democratic ways, and we are not going to make fun of him. We are going to ask him to stop making an idiot of himself on ABM defense.
Of course, our smart readers will say the issue is not one little bit about ABM defense. It is about the expansion of US influence into a sphere of vital import to Russia. True enough.
In that case may we suggest that Mr. Putin offer Central/West Europe alternatives to the US shield, such as a Russian shield? Russia doesn't have the money, at this point. It could, however, do other things to seduce Europe away from the American shield. One might be to work with the US to eliminate Iran's N-weapons program. No Iranian program, no need for the Europe to have the US ABM shield. The Europeans will be happy to tell the US "No".
Frightening people to death by threatening all kinds of dire consequences if they don't behave is counterproductive. The Russians specialize in this gamut. And surely they can see that it has failed them, big time, once already - a big reason the USSR disintegrated.
0230 GMT May 29, 2007
A slow news day.
Israeli Army Gets Gaza Green Light to deal with Hamas's rocket attacks but says no large scale incursion is planned. Just as well, because Israel has not been able to stop terror attacks with incursions large or small.
Despite several days of air strikes - usually one sortie at a time targeting a particular Hamas house or car - and despite some claims that the strikes are forcing Hamas to lay low, 17 missiles were launched into Israel Monday.
Israel has also been arresting - or kidnapping, depending on your viewpoint - Hamas leaders and legislators. This strategy too does not work, Israel has tens of thousand of Palestinians in long-term detention which extend to years and in some cases to decades, with no stoppage of terror attacks. While many were quite wroth at Hezbollah's kidnapping of two Israeli solders, few in the US talk about the huge number of Palestinians in Israeli jails, many of whom were kidnapped.
The danger in going after Hamas's leadership is that Israel will be too successful. That will make it difficult for moderates in Hamas and other Palestinian factions to support peace with Israel, and it will remove men who can control Hamas cells from more rash acts against Israel.
No doubt it is a very difficult situation for the Israelis. We see no solutions. Before anyone writes in to object, we are perfectly aware that the Israelis have dome things which make a solution impossible. We never have, and certainly are not now, blamed the Palestinians for all or even most of their problems.
US Must Pay 44% Of $50-billion Global Warming Annual Bill: Oxfam As President Reagan might say, there they go again. It's unfair to expect poor countries to pay for the mess the developed countries have made, says Oxfam.
Lets back off a minute here, kids. Let's assume that current global warming is due to human activity. That seems a reasonable proposition, but it leaves out the troubling historical record, which shows huge temperature fluctuations beyond what global warming scientists are predicting for the next hundred years at times when humans, if they were around, were the cause of nothing because they were just a bunch of savages trying to stay alive. We suppose the argument of whether we are headed for global warming or global cooling will start getting settled around 2016, when some scientists say the sun's activity will result in less heat reaching us. Lets also assume that global warming is a uniformly bad thing.
The inconvenient truth, however, is that whatever the US has done in the past, China is about to overtake the US as chief global warmer, and because of its complete reliance on coal for power generation, will continue to increase its lead. India will be following, but at a slower rate because India uses power per unit of GDP more efficiently than China. Some have estimated that within a few years China/India will undo all the effort of Kyoto - if the US was inclined to accept Kyoto. That it is not, the China/India scenario being one of the main reasons.
So will Oxfam from next year want China to start paying it's proportionate share to reduce global warming? Of course not, silly. The west - read the white countries - are responsible for every ill that afflicts the world. If you are not white, by definition of some you are not responsible for anything.
If Oxfam wants to be taken seriously, and not just drip anti-American vitriol because it is oh-so-fash in European "liberal" - think Austin Powers - circles, it needs to redo its global warming index. Right now that index puts all the blame on the developed countries, at a time China is commissioning one thermal power plant every 100 hours, is another pointless exercise.
Oxfam's position reminds us of a discussion we had with an American of Indian origin who is intimately versed in the nuances of skin color. The American was criticizing American racism. We interjected that Indians are just as racist as Americans, and probably among the worst offenders the world has ever know if one speaks not of race, but of caste. We added that a great many African-Americans are second-to-none when it comes to racism.
Hardly an original argument, we thought. The American looked at us kindly, much as a teacher might look at a mentally retarded child, or - as President Bush might say - as Queen Elizabeth looked at him when he almost slipped to say she had last visited America 200 years ago. "You as an Indian are a person-of-color," the American patiently explained. "As such you cannot be racist. You are a victim of racism."
We didn't bother replying that we - and about 100-million other persons of color - got to the US only because white men decided that US immigration policy was immoral. Till President Kennedy changed the law in 1963, it was near impossible for non- Europeans to come legally to America. Of course memory can fail when one reaches our advanced age, but we seem to remember the President, his advisors, and the Congress who voted for immigration reform were white. The Reagan Amnesty, which led to the huge and expanding flood of illegal Hispanic immigration, was the work of people who were almost entirely white. The current amnesty, which will legalize perhaps up to 12-million illegals, the vast majority of whom are Hispanics, is the work of men and women who by a large majority are white. By 2050, whites will be a minority in the US, thanks to actions taken by whites who wanted to be fair.
Terribly racist, these whites.
10 Billion Trillion Solar Systems Possible In Our Universe A new estimate says that 10% of the suns in the universe may have solar systems. We did a quick/dirty calculation. We took the upper limit for galaxies in our universe, one trillion. We took sort-of-a-modest estimate for suns per galaxy, 100-billion, and voila...
As far as we know, none of the 236 extra-solar systems detected so far feature planets in circular orbits, ensuring radiation is constant - a prerequisite for life. But if - say 1 in a 1000 or even 1 in 10,000 have circular orbits, that's still a million trillion solar systems. What's a few zeroes between friends?
And of course, "universe" means "observable universe". The real universe is likely to be much, much bigger.
So at one end you could have billions of civilizations in the known universe. At the other end, the worst case, for a number of reasons you could have exactly one.
So we know many of our readers will root for just one - no chance then that there are other President Bushes out there. We are rooting for the better case - somewhere there has to be an editor of Orbat.com who is good-looking, intelligent, rich, and with many girl-friends.
Do you want an exact figure of at-worst how far away the nearest Mr. Bush is? MIT's Prof. T. Tegmark has an estimate. Its 10^10^29 meters away. That's the nearest Mr. Bush doing the same things at the same time as the current Mr. Bush - and as the current you.
Sounds like practically next door, no? No need to sound the alarm: it's not.
0230 GMT May 28, 2007
Lebanese Army Will Not Storm Camp it says, preferring to rely on negotiation to get Fatah Islam out. Why this sudden peace and love toward and enemy the Army was threatening to wipe out just the other day? It could be out of concern for civilians, but these are not Lebanese civilians, and concern was evident by its absence in the first round of fighting. It could also be the government does not want to inflame Palestinians by breaking the 1969 agreement not to enter the camps.
It might be the Lebanese Army does not want to take the serious casualties storming would entail. Simple firepower tends to aid the defender as you get serious rubble behind which to fight, blocked roads and so on. So obviously we are not about to criticize anyone for not wanting to take casualties, everyone wants to live, right?
Last night both sides exchanged fire when insurgents used heavy weapons. AFP says the Lebanese Army responded with anti-tank fire. Well, since Fatah Islam has no tanks, and we doubt the Army wants to use $40,000-a-shot TOWs or something like that, we assume AFP means the Army responded with tank fire. See above on concern for civilians.
The UN relief agency, UNRWA, says 3-8000 civilians are left in the camp and that some aid managed to get through. Lately its been the militants firing on anything that moves.
Ukraine Crisis Over For Now The pro-Russia Prime Minister tepidly agreed to early elections on September 30, something the pro-West President wants. The President accuses Parliament of usurping his power and dissolved the legislative body in April. The President, however, has not had things all his own way: the September date was sought by the pro-Prime Minister lot.
Remember, Ukraine was part of Russia for 400 years: the Eastern part of the former province is Russian majority. Now that the old USSR is gone, maybe it's time to realign national boundaries. The Russians in various former Soviet Union states have rights too. It's 62 years since the Second World War ended, 80% or more of these Russians had no responsibility for the wrongs done to ethnic populations of states like Ukraine. You can't just expel them, they have ancestral rights as much as anyone else.
0230 GMT May 27, 2007
Hezbollah Threatens Lebanese Government warning it not to storm the Tripoli refugee camp where Fatah Islam is holding out. Hezbollah also criticized Fatah Islam for its role in the crisis.
Between 10-18,000refuges remain in the camp - lower figures given by Lebanese government, higher by UN. Relief supplies are being delivered there as well as to another camp nearby where at least 12,000 refugees have fled.
Yesterday 6 US and 3 Arab aircraft brought military supplies to Lebanon; today more US sorties arrived. Fatah Islam says the deliveries include nerve gas and cluster bombs. We suppose you could call riot control gas "nerve gas", but we don't see how Fatah Islam could have any clue as to what has been sent.
Fatah Islam has been firing on civilians seeking to fleet in an attempt to keep the camp populated and thus deter the Army. Lebanon, on its side, lavishly used heavy weapons including artillery - in at least one case 155mm - tank cannon, and heavy machine guns in the first three days of fighting, without regard to the civilians inside the camp.
The Australian has a short article on how Fatah Islam infiltrated the camp by pretending to be part of a Palestinian group. Only five militants are actual Palestinians, say the camp residents.
Trouble In Kiev as the President dissolves the dissident parliament and sends "thousands" of paramilitary troops to the capital. Few, however, have reached because the deputy Interior minister supporters the prime minister. The president has taken over direct command of Interior troops.
BBC says the troops are carrying riot gear only.
BBC says talks between the president and prime minister continue without result. The president is pro-west and the prime minister is pro-Russia; this is the cause of the current crisis.
UK, US Forces Battle Mahadi Militia In Basra two days ago the British killed a wanted Mahadi Army commander as he left the local al-Sadr office. The British say the Iraqi Army, with whom they were working, did the deed and they merely provided cover and blocks. Anticipating revenge attacks, the British vacated Basra's streets, and yesterday the attacks came. The British responded with a single fighter sortie. Sadrites say 8 were killed.
In Baghdad, the US attacked a high value Mahadi Army individual responsible for bring EFP road-side bombs from Iran. Nine men were killed in a US airstrike.
Meanwhile, sectarian killings bearing the Shia militias' trademarks are on the rise again, with Baghdad alone topping the all-Iraq total of April.
We are unsurprised at this development because after the surge began the Sunnis stepped up mass bombings of Shias and it was just a matter of time before the latter began retaliating.
A White House spokesperson thinks that al-Sadr has a positive role to play in national reconciliation. Unless the US has cut a deal with him - which may be one explanation of why he surfaced after hiding from the Americans since the surge start - we wouldn't make any assumptions about his helpfulness or his new-found sincerity regarding protecting Sunnis. This is a very, very bad man with more blood on his hands than anyone in post-Saddam Iraq. His militia continues to plant road-side bombs and to kill Americans. He needs to be shot down like the rabid dog he is, not made part of US diplomacy in its haste to exit Iraq.
0230 GMT May 26, 2007
Al-Sadr The Opportunist Resurfaces for Friday prayers at Kufa, near Najaf. He now speaks of brotherly love with the Sunnis, and is said to be trying to curb extremist elements in his militia. You are not to fight our Iraqi brothers, he says, meaning avoid conflict with the Iraqi Army. And don't give the Americans an excuse to continue their occupation.
Gee. Al-Sadr a moderate? Hardly. He's just trying to keep the Americans off his back, and he figures the sooner the surge works, the sooner the Americans will go home.
Anbar Anti-AQ Leaders Complain One of the fondest and stupidest reasons given by the Administration for staying in Iraq is that Al Qaeda will get a base. It would be nice if the Administration would also say: "But for our invasion AQ would never have gotten into Iraq". It so happens, however - and we've said so before - US presence is actually hindering the Iraqis from taking care of AQ.
The Americans want us to follow the law 100%, complains one chief to the Washington Post, and of course, we don't need WashPo to tell us that, because the Americans are constantly concerned to see that people they are associated with - troops, police, militia, whatever - must obey human rights regulations.
The truth is, if the Americans would just get out of the way, the Sunnis of Anbar would get rid of AQ in short order, simply by killing any one they suspect of being AQ or a supporter. The Sunnis allowed AQ to get a foothold because after Saddam's fall they were powerless against the Americans, and then became victims of the revenge-minded Shia majority - which also runs the government and military. Pretty soon, however, AQ overreached and started telling the Sunnis that they were not true Muslims and that they, AQ, would kill them if they did not comply with AQ's version of Islam. Caught in a 3-way fight - Americans, Baghdad, and AQ on one side, Sunnis on the other, the Sunnis took a beating. Then the Americans enlisted the Sunnis to kill AQ.
Now - at least so the US military claims - AQ has been driven out of Anbar's population centers. Doesn't mean Anbaris greet US troops with roses and kissies, they hate the Americans third only to AQ and the Shias. It does mean the Sunnis are quite capable of taking care of AQ. US doesn't even have to give arms and money - Saudi and Jordan are doing the needful to begin with.
US needs to get out of Anbar and leave the Sunnis to their own devices. The Shias will get out of Anbar too if they don't have the Americans doing most of the work for them. In any case, the Shias have no interest in Anbar.
Take out the five or so brigades deployed to Anbar, and you simplify the American military's problems hugely. US Army keeps talking about the need for innovative solutions in Iraq. We've given one.
8 US, 1 Gulf Cargo Aircraft Deliver Lebanon Army Supplies No details are available, but presumably the shipments consist of ammunition and spare parts.
The true at the besieged refugee camp in Tripoli is still holding. AFP says Palestinian negotiators are likely involved in talks to resolve the standoff peacefully, but so far there is no indication the militants are willing to surrender.
Lebanese Government says it will take control of all 12 Palestinian refugee camps.
Zimbabwe Out Of Money To Feed Troops And Militia says Times London Inflation is running at 3700%, so that an Army private who got 50 Sterling/month in pay in February, now finds it worth 4 Sterling - about $8.
Letter From Walter E. Wallis On US Change Of Iraq Strategy As soon as a plan becomes apparent an enemy will adjust to it. Armies are harder to adjust than cells. Ultimately Jihad needs to be detrimental to Islam. That means that ultimately we need to learn that diplomacy is not just being nice. More of the burden needs to be transferred to Islam in the form of limited movement and limited opportunity. Nations that encourage or allow anti-US rants in the street and come calling the next day for visas need to be politely shown the door. One emigrant acting in criminal manner and the quota is flushed. One embassy bombing and shut down at both ends.
Letter From James P. Freemon On Gas At $3.25 ONLY?!? That price peak, due to the OPEC oil embargo, was extremely painful for those of us driving then. There were long lines at gas pumps and the maximum speed limit on US highways was 55 mph. It sparked the oil patch and housing boom... and eventual bust in Oklahoma and Texas. It also caused a downsizing and increased efficiency of American built cars. Nothing changed in Oklahoma as fast as the names of the banks.
0230 GMT May 25, 2007
Oil Expected To Return To $80/bbl because of OPEC cuts, Nigerian instability, and tensions with Iran once again growing with Iran.
Nonetheless, some analysts say that in order for increases to psychologically impact on people the way they did in 2006, oil would have to increase to $105/bbl because people have now adjusted to higher prices.
$3/gallon Gas Proves NOT To Be The Breakpoint Back in the day we used to think when US gasoline prices reached $3/gallon, Americans would start to freak out and get serious about energy independence. Ha ha. We were so naive.
That figure was not pulled from the air; it's what the energy companies used as a break point. Turns out, according to Washington Post, that the energy companies have recalculated and the new breakpoint is $4.35, and perhaps even $5/gallon. Why?
First, at $3.25 or so we are paying only what we paid in 1981, inflation adjusted. Second, gasoline as a percentage of our budgets has fallen because the national income has doubled since 1981. So we can afford to pay more. Third, even at $3.25 Americans do not consider driving a discretionary activity. It is still regarded as a necessity, and those who feel they must drive are simply spending less on other items. Gasoline usage is up 2.6% over last year; so much for $3.25/gallon gas.
Of course, none of these prices are true prices. Americans as a whole, regardless of how much they drive or if at all, are subsidizing the price of oil because no one counts the money spent on protecting US overseas oil interests. That is spent under the rubric of defense and foreign aid. We think the US is already paying $120/bbl. But our argument is far too arcane for the public's understanding or concern.
Back To The Refinery Problem We sometimes wonder why Americans can no longer debate an issue from all points of view, and why everyone seems to lie to make their cases stronger than they might otherwise be.
Case in point is the energy companies' insistence that environmental factors prevent new refinery construction.
We bought that, after all, opposition to any project be it a road or a port or a power plant or whatever is intense.
Turns out it's a half truth. We now learn the Bush Administration offered federal land for new refineries; the environmental clearance process can be speed up in these cases and the feds are not as vulnerable to the NIMBY syndrome as local governments and so on.
Well, there may be many other sensible reasons why new refineries are not being built. But when the energy companies lie on one point, so blatantly, they merely destroy their credibility, so that no one wants to listen to the other reasons, no matter how sensible they may be.
The best reason we know of is that energy companies constantly worry oil prices will fall to as low as $40/bbl - there have been huge drops before, causing big losses for companies that invested assuming some version of the current price. Refineries cost billions of dollars and investors have to be reasonably sure of a return before they will invest.
This looks to be a case where the private sector approach - supply/demand and all that - may not be applicable, and it may be time to think about having the government build refineries. There is a big strategic dimension to the refinery problem. The private model cannot cover those aspects. It's bad enough the US is already so dependent on crude oil imports. Does the country now really want its refineries to be increasingly built overseas, providing yet another point of strategic vulnerability.
1530 GMT May 24, 2007
Lebanon Army Still Hesitating to begin final assault against Fatah Islam, and understandably. The Army admits to losing 30 men in the first three days of fighting on the refugee camp's outskirts; that was a picnic compared to going into the camp with its warren of narrow alleys and crowded houses. The government is considering the use of other Lebanese militias to do the fighting, saying they will have a better idea the camp's layout.
The government has spent the last two days issuing ultimatums and trying to get other Palestinians to talk to the militants, but Fatah Islam says it will fight to the end. At least the lull has brought time for half the camp's civilians to leave; the last information was that the other half is staying put, possibly because they have no means of leaving. Orbat.com readers are asked to imagine that they must immediately leave their homes with their dependents on foot, and that they have very little cash and nowhere to go. Probably a lot more than half might decide to stay regardless of the danger.
More details on Fatah Islam are available, possibly from refugees. The group arrived about a year ago and began intimidating camp residents, saying the resident were not true Muslims. They number about 300, and only 10% are Palestinians. The rest are from other countries, including Pakistan and Bangladesh. They are very unpopular in the camp, but there was nothing the residents felt they could do.
Opinion
If you are a fanatic Muslim, accusing Palestinians of not being true Muslims is easy. The Palestinians tend to be more secular and better educated than most Muslims. Ironically, Israel for years has focused on damaging this people, opening the way for fundamentalist Hamas and other useless fanatics to gain increasing influence. This process seems to have reached a logical culmination in Fatah Islam: composed 90% of non-Palestinians, it has taken over a Palestinian camp with a 1 fighter to 100 resident ratio, and is speaking in their name.
The Punjab insurgency in India was maintained by 20,000 militants who intimidated a population of 20-million. It is most unlikely the militants were actively supported by more than 1% of the population both from belief or from coercion. Some of the militants had sanctuary in Pakistan. Relatively small sums of money were available from overseas Sikhs and from Pakistan; an abundance of small arms was available from Pakistan.
It took the Indians ten years and somewhere between 100,000 and 300,000 police, paramilitary, and troops to crush the insurgency. The figures for government forces fluctuated as the insurgency flourished or declined. Because the judicial/law enforcement institutions of the Indian nation are absolutely not equipped to stand up to violent opposition, it was easy for the militants to target police, judges, and witnesses, and made it impossible to deal with the militants under the normal process of criminal law, something that western human rights organizations never understood.
The militants were ruthless in their sectarian terror - and terror was the only weapon they had, because 99% of the people absolutely opposed their goals. Iraqis are becoming mental cases because a few hundred a month are murdered in sectarian violence. In the Punjab, months where the death toll of poor Hindus pulled off public transport buses and gunned down reached 1000 were quite normal.
The half-millenia of ties between Hindus and Sikhs were so strong that except for the massacre of 3000 Sikhs all over India after the assassination of Mrs. Gandhi the Hindus did not retaliate - and even in that case very few Sikhs died in the Punjab or Haryana.
Despite all this, the insurgency was crushed only by means as brutal and gruesome as those employed by the militants. Captured militants, and male supporters captured along with them, were simply executed on the spot by the police.
Please note that the Punjab was at the time India's most prosperous state. Sikhs were, and are, highly respected in India for their courage and hard work, are welcome in any part of India, and because of this, were/are made welcome in the basic state institutions like the military out of all proportion to their tiny numbers in a country of 1.1-billion. They were the most upwardly mobile of Indian ethnic groups. And they were participants in the most vibrant democracy of the post-colonial era.
Now look at Islamic militants Most Muslims live in improvised autocratic states. They have little chance of economic and political advancement. The future holds nothing for them, and the wonder is not that so many look to the past, but that so many do not.
Their basic conditions of life are what makes fundamentalist Muslims so dangerous. We are dealing not with a state or a coalition of states, but a pool of 1-billion potential recruits who work together disregarding national origin. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia alone together have half-a-billion people who have little economic hope of a decent life. In a rapidly modernizing world the only power these people have is the power of killing under the banner of religion.
We can sit around and debate if the Bush Administration's policies to defeat Islamic fundamentalism are the right way till the cows come home and die of old age. But to downplay the fundamentalist threat, and to downplay the degree to which Muslims - wrongly - blame the west for their condition, and to do this in the name of liberal humanism, is for the west to lay the foundation of its own destruction.
Fundamentalist Muslims willing to kill and to die currently number in the low 100,000s. And currently they seem quite preoccupied mainly in killing each other. Nonetheless, despite their tiny numbers in a world population of 6-billion+, they are increasingly holding large parts of the world hostage.
If nothing is done, the numbers may soon reach the low millions. Then the real fun will begin.
A last word on the Sikhs We find it ironic that some Americans think Sikhs are Muslims. That error is due entirely to the Sikh religious retirement to keep their hair long and their beards unshaved. Muslims may or may not have facial hair, but the hair on their heads is cut. We cannot blame some Americans who may not know this and certainly do not know the difference between a Sikh turban and an Arab one.
The irony, however, comes from this. In the five centuries since Sikhism was founded, there has been no more implacable enemy of Islam anywhere in the world.
This has come about because the Sikhs, who began as a peaceful reform sect of Hinduism - the first 4 of 10 Gurus were Hindus, before the succession became hereditary - were brutally persecuted from the first by India's Muslims. Two were exposed to unspeakable tortures before death; the last guru saw his whole family with the exception of his wife killed by the Mughuls, and he himself was assassinated on the orders of a Mughul governor. From the start the Sikhs fought the Mughuls simply to survive and became Islam's most formidable enemy.
[Even though the Sikhs were persecuted from the start, the first three Mughul emperors, who were - by the standards of the day - tolerant to other religions, did not command a mass persecution of this sect. The last three emperors systematically sought to eradicate Sikhism, in the process making it stronger and progressively more militant.]
0230 GMT May 23, 2007
[0930 GMT] Tripoli Cease Fire Holding as Lebanese Army continues reinforcing its positions. There is no update on casualties after the second day of fighting. Residents speak of many bodies buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings.
Orbat.com's Request To Washington: Please Stop Doing Drugs How else to account for the fallback plan since the surge isn't working? The elements of this plan are being "trial ballooned" in various forums. And since the surge was Plan F or G or whatever, the fallback will be Plan G or H or whatever. Does anyone care anymore how many plans we've gone through? More to the point, the chance of the new fallback plan working is also zip, zero, zilch.
An analysis by the UK Guardian's Simon Tisdall nicely summarizes, in one place, the fallback plan.
(a) Give a bigger role the UN. Ha ha. The UN ran from Iraq the moment after a single attack on its HQ. By design it is a soft international organization and in no way is it equipped to increase its role in Iraq - as if any UN member wants to take up where the US has failed, to begin with. This is a non-starter, everyone but Washington knows this.
(b) Rely more on France's new president to help the US out in Iraq. Ha ha ha. The new president may be pro-American, that doesn't automatically mean he's an idiot. His own public is irrevocably opposed to any association with the US over Iraq, and France has neither the leverage, the means, or the intent to get involved in another Mideast cesspool. In case the Bushies haven't heard, France has it's hands full with Lebanon and Syria.
(c) Mobilize regional neighbors to help more, including possibly a Muslim peacekeeping force. Ha ha ha ha. Message from Globular Cluster CG409, which is obviously controlling the Bush administration's Iraq policy by beaming all the dumb things the administration is doing/thinking of doing: please absolutely forget that the regional states are Sunni, and that they have no interest at all in stabilizing Iraq so that the Shias can kill the Sunnis better, or in helping Iran create a Shia ascendancy in the Arab world, reversing the Sunni supremacy of 1300 years.
Here's the direct quote on the above: "Internally, the plan is for US forces to help isolate takfirists (fundamentalist Salafi jihadis), peel off Sunnis from the insurgency, contain hardcore elements of Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army, and halt Iranian and trans-Syrian infiltration of troops and materiel."
Request to Administration from Orbat.com Editor: While we're making these wish lists, can we please throw in a wish from the Editor? Can you magically transform him into a beautiful female green-eyed Irish redhead, age 20, dimensions 35-23-35, 5' 8", weight 130, with an IQ of say 300? The Editor has been make plans every night to take over the world, every night for the last fifty years, and each has failed. This is his fallback plan: he is sure if recreated in the above form he will take over the world. Realistically, folks, his plan has a better chance of working than the nonsense the Administration is coming up with.
(d) Work with the Terrorist al-Sadr if all else fails, to secure an "orderly transaction". This means enlist America's deadliest enemy in Iraq for a ceasefire that will get the US out of Iraq without having to stage a fighting retreat. You are waiting for us to go Ha ha ha ha ha. Actually, this is the only part of the plan that will work - we should say the Plan After The Plan That Comes after The Surge. al-Sadr will be only too delighted to protect US troops on their way out. Vice President Cheney is said to favor this plan.
Thing is, if US decides to exit Iraq, it doesn't need al-Sadr's goodwill or anyone's goodwill. We know people in Washington have this paranoia that everyone and his brother will be attacking the withdrawing forces. So do they mean to say they have full confidence the US military can fight and win against those elements, but that it cannot cannot protect itself during a withdrawal? In any case, no one will attack US troops. everyone will be busy rejoicing that they can now get down to the real business of killing each other without US interference.
Tripoli Fighting In 3rd Day There was a very brief lull during which 2000 refugees managed to escape the camp, but they were fired on by unidentified snipers and the fighting soon resumed. Several UN aid trucks entered the refugee camp and got stuck; later they managed to get away. So at least some relief supplies arrived; nonetheless, the situation continues to deteriorate with doctors operating in the street and without blood.
The Lebanese Army is leveling any house from which it receives fire. On the one hand, we don't blame the Army: it has lost a number of its men and firepower is one way of minimizing your own losses. On the other hand, this is not a good policy because there is no way of telling if the civilians inside a house are willingly cooperating with gunmen or if the house has been forcibly occupied. When you start obliterating houses in a densely populated refugee camp, you are going to have a lot of civilians killed. All this assumes that in each case the Army can tell from precisely which house it is receiving fire: with houses right on top of each other this is not an easy proposition.
Of course, the refugees are not Lebanese. We are not making judgments, but we wish there was a better way of dealing with the militants.
Meanwhile, this incident is typical of the militants resolve. A single militant fought a six-hour battle with the Army. When they finally took over the house, he blew himself up rather than surrender.
Iran Revolutionary Guards Arming Taliban says Jang of Pakistan quoting an unnamed British officer. The report is likely lifted without attribution from a western news agency. Two convoys, one in April and one in May, were detected.
More Proof Of Water On Mars Okay, so this has nothing to do with the GWOT, but once in a while it's a good thing to remind oneself that there are matters that are more important than our everyday concerns.
Mars Rover Spirit has found a patch of 90% silica, and this material can be formed only through interaction with water. There's already good proof of water held as ice at the poles, and indications that subsurface water held as ice may be all over the planet. This adds up to the possibility that Mars was once wet.
The reason for excitement over the new field is the possibility the silica was formed in geothermal wells: on Earth these teem with all kinds of life, some quite exotic. So there might be evidence of past life to be found - or even the Holy Grail of modern exobiology, present life.
0230 GMT May 22, 2007
[1430 GMT] Fighting continues; the latest casualty report from Reuters is the same 85 as we reported at 0230 GMT. Since the refugee camp where the militants are located is sealed off, no one knows the actual militant and civilian dead. The Lebanese Government says it has blocked the camp to prevent the militants from escaping, but as a result no aid is reaching the refugees, estimated variously as 30-40,000. They are without power or medical aid, and food is running out.
The Palestinians largely back the Lebanese Government's action: Fatah Islam is unpopular among the refugees. And, as is being said, these new splinter groups have their own agendas, the welfare of the Palestinian people not necessarily being the top priority. There is a concern, nonetheless, that unless the Lebanese Government acts to ameliorate the situation in the camp, there could be backlash.
In our opinion, this would not have significant impact on the government as the latter is determined to assert its control over the camp. The 12 camps in the country house perhaps 300,000 refugees and by agreement the government does not enter them.
This arrangement would seem to have outlived its utility. It remains to be seen if the government will use the Tripoli camp fighting to change the policy. The government says it is taking unspecified measures to prevent trouble at other camps.
A Lebanese Army source says that the militants do not surrender. They are either killed or withdraw. They seem to be well-trained, equipped, and motivated. We note these are not characteristics usually associated with Palestinian forces of any ilk. Doubtless the Lebanese Army will prevail, but the militants willingness to die augers ill for any hope the matter will be settled without many further casualties.
Tripoli Fighting Toll Now 85 says Reuters, with 32 soldiers, 20 militants, and 27 civilians believed dead. The Lebanese government has ordered the Army to wipe out Fatah Islam. A ceasefire was reported yesterday afternoon Lebanon time but was breached almost immediately, making it impossible for relief agencies to get aid to the beleaguered refugee camp where the militants are based.
President Bush has stopped short of blaming Syria for the fighting, saying he will wait for more information.
It seems to us if Syria is indeed behind Fatah Islam's starting a confrontation with the the Lebanese Government, as is widely assumed, the matter is a bit more complicated than eliminating a few hundred militants. If Syria is signaling the Lebanese Government that pushing ahead with the UN tribunal concerning the Harari murder is a bad idea, surely Syria did not think that unleashing such a small force would achieve anything. Moreover, given the Lebanese prime minister is counting on western support to protect hi,/his government, the government is unlikely to back down just because there is fighting in one refugee camp in the country.
We suspect, then, that this is merely a signal to the Lebanese government and the west that Syria is prepared to escalate. Remember that large segments of Lebanon look to Syria as their protector. Syria suffered a major defeat when the west forced it to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, but that hardly ended Syria's self-assumed role as final arbiter of Lebanon's destiny, or reconciled its Lebanese supporters to a Syria-less future.
Other purely speculative explanations are possible. One is that Syria wanted to test the Lebanese government. Having made its point, Damascus will now tell Fatah Islam to disperse, or to pull back to Syria. Another might be that for its own reasons Syria has decided the group is expendable in the cause of testing the government. Yet another could be that the group's hand was forced by an actual or perceived impending crackdown.
First Israeli Fatality In Hamas Rocket Attacks By yesterday the total rockets launched by Hamas over the last 4-5 days went up to 150, and one Israeli was killed. Israel continued its attacks on Hamas; we do not have a figure for the total dead on its side, but it is likely approaching 20.
Prime Minister Olmert is under increasing pressure from members of his own coalition for an all-out retaliation. In our opinion this will solve nothing except make the Israelis feel good. Israel either occupies all of Palestine and pays the price, or it continues with its futile periodic invasions and pays that price, or it does nothing and pays the price.
All of Israel's choices are bad. We don't know what the Israelis could have done differently over the last 40 years because we believe that no matter what concessions the Israelis made/make, only the elimination of Israel will satisfy the Arabs. The original mistake was creating Israel in the Middle East against the opposition of the Arabs, who at the time were so weak and so powerless that no one in the west gave them a moment's thought. That mistake cannot be undone, and the Arabs are no longer without power, so the current no-win situation must continue until one side or the other accumulates the power for a final solution.
Seeing as the Arabs outnumber the Israelis 50 to 1, we do not see how the final solution will favor Israel. Thanks to the Editor's American upbringing, he finds it galling there is no neat solution to the Arab-Israeli problem. It is the same with the India-Pakistan situation, now starting its 7th decade. Pakistan may self-destruct and give India the chance for a solution: after all, India is six times the size in terms of numbers and GDP. The Israelis do not enjoy that advantage vis-a-vis the Arabs.
Oddly, even Debka.com is advising against a conventional Israeli operation, which it believes will be defeated. We do not agree with Debka, which consistently overestimates the Palestinians and the ability of Iran to stiffen their resistance. Hamas is not Hezbollah. Our concern is, Israel bashes the Palestinians for the umpteenth time, and then what?
Debka says "Unorthodox strategic and tactical thinking is needed, say the experts, not an effort to fight the Lebanon War anew in Gaza. The clock cannot be turned back to the days before 2005, when former PM Ariel Sharon supported by Olmert pulled Israel out of the Gaza Strip and the strategic Philadelphi border route - or when Olmert after becoming prime minister let Hamas win the Palestinian general election in 2006 with FM Tzipi Livni’s support. Israelis have defeated Arab terror before. In the 1930s, The English military genius Orde Wingate taught Jewish paramilitary defenders his Special Night Squads tactics for turning Arab guerrilla methods against them. Nothing much has changed in 71 years, except for the fact that today, Israel has a strong army of its own, and does not need British or other international force to defend its sovereign territory. All that is needed is a government with resolve that lets the military do its job." (Debka.com, May 22, 2007).
You don't have to be any kind of expert to read that and understand that even Debka, for all its self-vaunted military connections, has even less of a clue as to what's to be done than we do. And we have clue at all.
Afghan-Bound Coalition Fuel Trucks Attacked For 2nd Time says Xinhua of China, quoting a not-terribly-reliable private news agency called NNI. In the first incident, 8 fuel trucks were destroyed when hit by "missiles" in the Landi Kotal area of the Khyber Agency in Pakistan's North West Frontier region. This new attack resulted in the destruction of 10 fuel trucks near the Torkhum border crossing in the NWFP. Two "missiles" were fired. We are going Austin Powers with the "missiles" because more likely they were rockets; there is seldom any precision in language when reporting from the region is concerned.
0230 May 21, 2007
[1330 GMT] Lebanon Fighting Continues into second day. Reuters says 65 now dead, including 27 soldiers, 15 militia, and 15 civilians. Sources say Fatah Islam has 300 fighters; we'd quoted London times to say there were 100. Both the Lebanese Army and Fatah Islam were reinforcing Tripoli.
Up To 50 Dead In Lebanon Factional Fighting The Lebanese Army Sunday engaged in fighting with a small Sunni militia group called Fatah Islam, losing 22 of its men for a claimed toll of 17 militants. Several civilians are also dead.
Fatah Islam is a splinter group from another militant group, and came up possibly in the fall of 2006. Times London says it has 100 fighters. Some say it is linked to Al-Qaeda others say it is a Syrian front group. The Syria theory group link the trouble for the call by the Lebanese Prime Minister for a UN tribunal to try the killers of Mr. Harari. He was anti-Syria and there seems to be good evidence Damascus engineered his death. The Lebanese President and a substantial part of parliament are opposed to any UN tribunal, so this is a hot-button issue in Lebanon.
The immediate provocation was a bomb blast Saturday killing one civilian and wounding several. The Lebanese Army arrived to raid a Fatah Islam office and was ambushed at least twice. It then attacked a house believed to contain the militants, using tanks and infantry.
This is the worst episode of sectarian violence in Lebanon for about 15 years.
Hezbollah Taunts Israel by flying its flag near the Sheba Farms and by posting large pictures of Israel's two kidnapped soldiers on the border so as to be visible from Israel's side. The kidnapping set off the 2006 fighting between Hezbollah and Israel, now referred to as the Second Lebanon War.
Meanwhile, Gaza Battles Continue In the first instance we have the continuing fighting between Hamas and Fatah, though the umpteenth ceasefire was announced Sunday.
In the second instance the Israeli Air Force flew seven strikes Sunday against Hamas targets, killing 10. This included perhaps as many as as seven family members of a top Hamas leader. He, however, escaped death. These attacks were followed by the usual Hamas vows for revenge.
In the third instance, Hamas launched 14 rockets against Israel by Sunday afternoon, according to Debka.com
Iran's Intentions The Big Unknown There is a growing sense in the Mideast that the region is heading for another war this summer. In our opinion, it all depends on Iran. If Iran unleashes its proxies, there is going to be a war.
So what are Iran's intentions? We'd suggest to readers they draw no comfort from the step-up of diplomatic activity between Iran and the US. Both sides are smiling at each other, but the smiles are really displays of fangs. US continues to hold an Iran attack as an option, and Iran is as determined as it was before the diplomatic activity to (a) bleed the US in Iraq, (b) attack Israel, and (c) destabilize Lebanon, removing it from its western alliance.
Iran is shooting for nothing less than dominancy in the Arab world, and believes it is on a roll. The Sunni powers and the US are working to weaken Iran. The Iranians are said to be canny tacticians, but the truth is we think they're quite reckless, a bad thing to be for a high stakes gambler. Also, there is the matter of internal Iranian politics. The current prime minister initially seemed to have engineered a take-over of Iran by the Revolutionary Guard, but it seems a variety of different interests are fighting back. The prime minister may soon start running up against a time constraint and has every incentive to keep escalating in the Middle East, creating a situation in which he can get rid of his enemies at home.
On the other side you have Mr. Bush, who has very skillfully used the War On Terror to railroad the American people and governing institutions into supporting his power grab in the US. Mr. Bush has run out of time, the opposition to his policies grows every day. Obviously we don't think Mr. Bush can be compared to Iran's prime minister in anything more than the superficial context we mention above, but there are a great many people even among America's traditional allies and friends who are very worried he may attack Iran.
So basically we have a bad, bad, bad situation brewing. The last thing the US needs is an expansion of the current Mideast war into new arenas. The US has no ground troops left, it's diplomacy worldwide is in shambles, and the strain of the Global War On Terror is incredibly high. The Iranian prime minister believes - according to us - that the US is weakening and he can win.
That may be as may be. Perhaps he is even right. He has to remember one thing, though. The US has the ability, despite all its problems, of sending Iran back to the pre-industrial age and there is nothing, absolutely nothing, he or anyone in the world can stop the US if it feels it is being overwhelmed by Iran in the Middle East. If he believes that a destroyed and mortally wounded country is an acceptable price for continuing his reckless drive for dominance in the Middle East, and if he thinks he can checkmate the US by threatening an expansion of his terrorism, well, all we can say is he's going to be in for some nasty surprises.
We are reminded, in a distant but still valid sort of way, of Hitler's misassessment of the US. He knew perfectly well American was a very powerful country. But he thought that because it was a racially mixed capitalist society it was degenerate and could not stand up to the combination of Japan and Germany. That is why he opportunistically declared war on the US after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. It was by no means his last mistake. But it was by far his greatest. Iran should think twice before fatally provoking the US. Americans may oppose the Iraq War. That doesn't mean they're going to sit back and watch Iran take over the Mideast.
0230 May 20, 2007
Good Bye, Tony Blair We are still waiting to see, in the media, some understanding that even if Mr. Blair had not joined Mr. Bush in Iraq, he probably would have been on his way out. He has been prime minister for 10 years, and the British - unlike the Indians - do not believe in the indispensable leader theory.
For the first 43 years of independent India, it was ruled for all but 6 by three generations of Nehru. Two of the three died in office. And if the Congress Party would put Priyanka Gandhi instead of her brother, the amiable duffer Rahul Gandhi, forward as the next head of the party, we could soon see a 4th generation of Nehrus.
You have only to remember what the Brits did to Winston Churchill, their greatest prime minister of the 20th Century. With the Second World War won, they forcibly retired him after just five years. This was the man a British poll once voted the greatest ever Briton. Our choice would have been Elizabeth I, but no matter. Churchill did make a 4-year comeback as prime minister; still that's nine years total.
Yes, you can say that but for Iraq Mr. Blair would probably have served out his current term, making it to 12 years versus 11 for the very formidable Mrs. Thatcher. William Pitt the Younger was PM for 20 years in various cabinets. We don't count Robert Walpole's 21 years 1721-1742 because though he was PM in fact, he did not have the title.
The media nowadays has the habit of instant, intellectually lazy analysis. So you will see again and again shallow analyses of Mr. Blair's downfall as due to Iraq. We feel that even absent Iraq, 2008 likely would have seen a new British prime minister. People want change, and even the best leaders run out of steam at some point.
Wanna Make $340,000/Year? Apply To Abraxas Corporation The Washington Post says that's what the Washington, DC area company founded by ex-CIA people was offering as its top-of-the-grade salary for intelligence analysts - human and signal - to work in Fallujah, Iran. Keep in mind that if the company is paying that amount, it's possible it's billing the US Government $1-million/year for filling one top slot. A rule-of-thumb for companies is: salary 1/3rd, overhead 1/3rd, gross profit 1/3rd. This obviously may not apply in the case of such high-paying jobs.
Still, if you wonder where your Iraq money is going, look no further. The same analyst, working as a government employee for the CIA, would likely not get more than $80,000 - we are guessing here as we don't know the details of the job, but that's about what a 15-year employee would get.
The problem is, of course, that the CIA doesn't have anywhere near the number of personnel it requires, thanks to the gutting cuts of the 1990s. If a person works for the CIA or the military, you can order her/him where you want. If you're calling for volunteers from the open market, you have to pay open market price. Cent wise, dollar foolish as the adage goes.
We Have A Minor Story Concerning Abraxas The Editor founded Orbat.com on the premise that military intelligence, that most sacred of government insider functions, could be, and should be, outsourced. As usual, he can claim with unbecoming modesty to be ahead of his time. One day he saw an advert for political and military analyst types in the newspaper. So he called Abraxas and offered Orbat.com's services.
He received in reply a nice message asking how he, the Editor, had gotten the name of the person for whom he left a message, and a polite email request for a URL so the person could check out "General Data". The Editor sent the General Data URL, which intentionally says precisely nothing, and some publicity material. Being a great Counter of Chickens Before They Are Hatched, your Editor thoughtfully wondered if this might be the Break he had sought for many years.
You've guessed the ending: he heard nothing further from Abraxas. One clue to the likely outcome was the putting of General Data in Austin Powers' quotation marks. Well, we can't help the company is called General Data, because that is what the Editor still hopes it will become, but obviously the Abraxas person thought it was some kind of cover name.
Now, at the time, the editor had no clue Abraxas was ex-CIA. That shows just how informed he is these days. ["Warning: Being forced to earn a living in an irrelevant field is hazardous to your standing as a spy".] When he did find out, several likely explanations of the cold shoulder became obvious. The most likely is that since Abraxas is an insiders company, and the Editor is not an insider on anything anywhere, he could not give the metaphorical secret handshake and was automatically rejected. A less likely but still possible explanation is that the person did a database search and the inevitable "Avoid This Crazed Person" popped out.
"Yes, yes," you will say, "but you haven't told how you got the name of the right officer. We know Abraxas, it's a high security operation, and it doesn't have a nice website that says: "If you are an ex-spy with Iraq experience apply to Ms. Jane Jones" and so on." Well, the thing is, your Editor wouldn't be much of a spy if he couldn't even find out who to address his enquiries to, now would he?
The thing with the intel business is that it is the ultimate insider's club. Who you are is more important by a factor of 10 than your competence. Its a very compartmentalized and - oyxmoron alert - secretive business. People have no way of evaluating the material you are offering without going through a complicated process. So they go by who you are. If you are no one, you don't get past first gate. Your material will never have a chance of getting to the right person who can say: "Hmmm. Looks like this person knows what he is about. Let's talk to him."
When the Editor created Orbat.com, he knew that. But he thought - wrongly - that the worth of Orbat.com's material - the stuff we keep to sell, not the stuff you can buy from us for $75 - would be so obvious he could circumvent all that. Sadly, it a'int so. The reality is that an intelligence agency would really rather spend a half-million dollars a year to keep a spy in the field than to get the same information from us for $500. The brand name counts for everything, the quality for nothing. And obviously we don't have the brand name.
0230 May 19, 2007
Afghan Troops Gathering For Border Fight With Pakistan in the border district of Ali Kheyl in Eastern Afghanistan. Please read the Times of London article at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article1811094.ece
The background is complicated, but the current crisis comes from escalating border clashes between Pakistan and Afghan troops. Times says soldiers from Afghan 203rd Corps, who should be fighting the Taliban, are gathering and waiting to fight back the next time the Pakistanis open fire.
The Pakistanis say they are simply trying to protect their border. The Afghans say they don't recognize the border. They are also angry because of Pakistan's support of the Taliban.
We found nothing on the border crisis in the E-version of the Daily Jang, a leading Pakistani paper. There was also nothing in the Frontier Post; unfortunately aside from the headlines, the Afghanistan news page was not working. We also saw nothing in Press Trust of India, Times of India, and BBC.
Hamas-Israel: Back To The Same Old Debka.com says Hamas has fired 120 Kassem rockets in the last four days. In retaliation, Israel has been launching air strikes and ground attacks against suspected launch positions and Hamas operatives; 9 Palestinians were killed in two strikes yesterday evening.
Hamas says it will not stop firing rockets. Israel says it will keep retaliating. Israeli sources say a prolonged ground operation/occupation is unlikely. Unfortunately, that is the only way to stop the rockets. Their range has been doubled to 16-km, so now the territory needing occupation will have to be that much greater. At which point Hamas will develop 25-km rockets or Iran will give them, and Israel will need to occupy more territory. Any occupation not just increases Palestinian resistance, it also brutalizes the Israelis, something the latter quite understand, to give them credit.
Meanwhile, Fatah-Hamas fighting continues; the toll in the latest round is 55, mostly Fatah fighters. For reasons not known to us they usually seem to get the worst in these clashes.
It's The Bad Old Refineries Again II Business Week writes, in an article on Exxon, that the company is not investing in refineries because it believes gasoline demand will level off as automobile engine efficiencies increase, and because alternatives like ethanol will reduce demand.
In a conclusion bound to gladden the hearts of conspiracy theorists, however, BW says that contrary to the assumption that increased prices lead to increased production, in the case of oil companies this may not be so, particularly for Exxon. The company is under investing in new exploration and instead is using its profits to buy back its shares, boosting value to the shareholders at the expense of consumers.
Letter From Rohit Vats On Indian Army Pay Increase Even though you have argued for the pay increase, you haven't highlighted the flaws in the article which has been written without any research what so ever. Take for example, the argument about Army having 100,000 Orderlies & drivers. He goes to argue that even in USA, only the senior most people have drivers allotted to them while others drive to work. As per authors convoluted logic, India is pampering it's officer corp and Army can rationalize it's structure by not having these "Luxuries". I hope you know that Army does not recruit Jawans or drivers because it wants to pamper it's officers. These are men who fill one role or other (generally from General Duty 'GD' category, to which most Jawans belong) and in war time would be fighting with their Regiments. Same for the drivers. These men are there to man a Regiment's transport. You know better that the Army is short of Officers, so even by authors completely nonsensical logic, if per officer there were to be 2 orderlies, the figure does not add up. There is yet another argument which says that Army's 'Teeth to Tail' ratio is way lopsided and has resulted in a large standing Army.
Also, before asking for pay increase, Army first needs to get it's house in order by way better force structure. He is again mixing two completely different issues here. What's Army's Teeth to Tail ratio got to do with salaries and attracting talent to join the Army.
This article is another example of media shooting off it's mouth on matters it simply does not understand. But the biggest tragedy is that they don't even make any effort to do so. No one knows who gives okay to go ahead and publish such rubbish which for a moment would not stand scrutiny. II hope hence forth you'll be more observant before quoting from articles written by such people or at least present a balanced view.
Editor's reply Mr. Vats is correct to the separate the issue of misuse of Indian Army manpower for non-essential purposes from the issue of teeth-to-tail ratio. The Indian Army's "tail" has been cut so much that the Army cannot sustain a war beyond a few weeks. Even in those weeks there is a severe shortage of engineer and transport regiments. For example, Indian armored formations once deployed cannot be redeployed without considerable lapse of time because of a shortage of tracked-vehicle transporters. Of course, Indian railheads are close to the border in most cases, but the shortage creates many constraints.
In 1962, before the China War, the Indian Army maintained the equivalent of perhaps 13 divisions on a 550,000 man base. Today, even excluding the specialized counter-insurgency force, it maintains 45 division-equivalents on a base a bit more than twice as large. And these are standard-size divisions, not Soviet-size. While no one will dispute the 1962 organization was wasteful of manpower, today the trend has gone in the other direction.
Incidentally, when counting the US tail in Iraq, don't forget there may be as many as 125-150,000 contractor personnel, giving about 50,000 personnel per division-equivalent. This is the same figure as the US Army used as a division-slice for an overseas-deployed division for half-a-century.
So, someone will say, doesn't that bring the US troop total to 275-300,000 by the standard of past wars, and if so what is the fuss about the US not having enough troops? Well, the fuss is that however you count it, the US has perhaps 60 battalions in Iraq - someone better informed can correct us. Anbar and Baghdad eat up perhaps 2/3rds of that, so the rest of the country is going to heck and beyond. If the US is going to stay, it is also going to have to pick up the British sector. It's not a question of a single brigade, because the British were very badly short of troops even when they had their overstrength brigade. What the US really needs to be doing instead of forming a handful of new brigades - and that too at a pace that would make an advancing glacier look like a 100-meter sprinter - is to add two companies per battalion for a total of six, and add more battalions to bring the total up to the equivalent of at least 100 standard-pattern battalions. This is a fast way to expand and the proportionate tail increase will be much less than that required with new brigades. Of course, none of this is going to happen, one of many reasons we, among others, maintain the war is as good as lost.
0230 May 18, 2007
We wrongly had "May 15" as the date for the May 16 and 17 updates. we hope readers are reassured they are not reliving Groundhog Day - the movie.
It's The Bad Old Refineries Again Last year, readers will recall, oil was at $79/barrel and gasoline at $3.03/gallon average US. This year oil is at $65/barrel and gasoline prices are $3.07. Jettison the sinister explanation of cartels and cabals. It's the Bad Old Refineries again. There's oil aplenty, but as happened last year, refineries are the choke-point.
They are running at 90% capacity. Again, we have to go easy on conspiracy theories about refineries always going down for maintenance when the summer driving season hits: 90% is very high for industrial plant.
US refineries have been expanding at existing sites rather than building new ones, but the expansion does not suffice because Americans keep driving more - and of course, there are more Americans each year because of immigration, mainly illegal, and a birth rate that is high for a western nation. The US is importing increasing quantities of gasoline.
Two factors influence refiners. One is the "Not In My Back Yard" syndrome. The other is that new refineries cost big gigabucks. Right now refineries are making good profits, but if oil prices fall - and oil is a cyclical business - the refiners are going to get whacked.
Meanwhile, much to OPEC's relief, almost 1-million barrels/day of Nigerian oil remains off the market. That amount, if produced, would probably drop prices to near $60.
Tata Steel Aims At No. 2 By 2012 with 40-million tons of capacity. It has 26-million tons now, and will add the rest That would make Indians No. 1 and 2 in steel - the largest is Mr. Mittal. So a lot of our Indian readers (okay, 3 of 5 we have) are going to shrug their shoulders and say: "So what's the big deal?"
The thing is, if you'd grown up in India in the 1940s and 1950s, and then gone back for the 1970s and 1980s, as is the editor's case, that Indians could be No. 1 and 2 in the world in anything except for population and rhetorical yap, leave alone something as fundamental as steel - is completely mind-boggling.
[The Press Trust of India study may contain a misprint: it says Tata Steel is planning three greenfield plants of 23-million; also, according to its website, the company is doubling one plant to 10-million tons. Those works alone would raise its output to 55-million tons.]
BBC Has A Nice Article On US Army where its correspondents note that American soldiers " seem brighter, stronger and more committed" than their British counterparts. They are impressed with the US Army's can do spirit even as America is "staring failure in the face". http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/6663513.stm
French Cabinet Has 7 Women Among 15 Members President Sakrozy has started his promised revolution in the way France is governed with a bang. He has cut the cabinet to 15 from 30 to reduce government costs, appointed 7 women, making this possibly the most gender-equal cabinet in a major country, and made a pro-American his foreign minister. Bernard Kouchner is better known to Americans as the founder of Doctors Without Borders and may be known to some Americans as one of the few politicians to support the US for Gulf II.
0230 May 17, 2007
India Joint Chiefs of Staff Proposes 5-fold Pay Increase for officers, Sandeep Unnithan tells us in an article he wrote for India Today and kindly forwarded. A battalion commander would, for example, get $30,000/year. This is not unreasonable given that thanks to India's continued economic growth, civil sector salaries have shot up to the point a military career - always unattractive because of the hardship - is a non-starter for most qualified applicants. People want to serve their country, but they need to also look after their families and themselves.
The Indian Army, which at a sanctioned strength of 40,000 officers for a manpower that exceeds 1.2-million, is already the most "under-officered" army in the world. And that says nothing about the reality that the Army is far below its sanctioned officer strength. It's common for fighting battalions to have half the number allocated.
The JCS says - again correctly, in our opinion - that you cannot maintain the third largest military force in the world on the 2% or so of GDP allocated for defense.
The critics say that the Indian Army in particular should reduce manpower and put the savings into equipment modernization and presumably pay increases. They say, for example, that the number of orderlies and drivers assigned to officers is 100,000.
Critics have a point. At the same time, the Indian Army is also right when it says that the high-tech model is fine, look what's happened to the US in Iraq. Gulf II was brilliantly won using high-tech, as was Gulf I. Now the US is busy losing the war because it lacks manpower.
In his younger days, the editor was a great believer in high-tech. But later he began to understand that there really is no substitute for numbers. And we are not even looking at the unique conditions under which the Indian Army operates. For example, the Army deploys about 27-28 divisions against Pakistan in wartime. Doubtless a high-tech force of 18 divisions would be much more powerful - in theory. In reality, Pakistan has ways of offsetting India's potential high-tech edge with a much smaller investment because of the geostrategical conditions that prevail on the border.
In 1991 the US Army had both high-tech and numbers. It can be reasonably argued that this was also the case in Second Indochina and the Second World War. In 2004-present it keeps increasing its high-tech margin over other armies. But it's losing its current war.
We feel the correct solution is to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP, not to cut manpower. The current 2% has not been seen since the period 1947-62 when Jawaharlal Nehru deliberately starved the military of funds for political reasons, and we saw the results in 1962. Given the economy is so much larger, and that it continues to expand at 8-9% a year, there is money for both guns and butter.
Umpteenth Ceasefire In Gaza We've been ignoring Palestine as it's been Same Old Same Old. Perhaps 40 have been killed in the last few days in fighting between Fatah and Hamas, and yet another ceasefire has been called. The only news of interest is that some days ago 450 Fatah fighters crossed over into Gaza from Egypt, after receiving training in that country.
Meanwhile, the Israelis continue to threaten "harsh" punishment in response to the firecrackers fired from Gaza into Israel - they're grandly called Kassem rockets. This being the Mideast, and the Israelis - however white and western they may think they are - being part and parcel of Arab culture, we suppose it's no point telling them that their rhetoric has become tiresome. The Palestinians remain defiant despite decades of oppression and harsh punishment.
If anyone should know that once you push people beyond a certain point, even their lives mean nothing to them, it is the Jewish people, who suffered - and survived - some of the harshest "punishment" seen in the 20th Century. Why do the Israelis, now that they are the punishers, think the Palestinians cannot, or will not take, any punishment the Israelis can hand out? Short of killing all Palestinians, or ethnically cleansing them all, how do the Israelis propose to stop them from attacking Israel?
From James Freemon On The Unscented Toiletries given to a terrorist prisoner in jail and his subsequent complaint. The letter puts a new angle on the matter and forces us to concede may be said terrorist had a legitimate gripe.
0230 May 16, 2007
US Most Brutal Nation In The Known Universe (and likely also in the Unknown Universe). (Maybe even in ALL universes.) Sorry, we digress as usual. Story from NPR, delivered by the radio newsreader with a straight face. (We couldn't see his face, but his voice said a lot.)
So here's one of the 15 high-value terrorist prisoners in US custody, a Pakistani. He's been put in front of a tribunal. He says he was beaten and deprived of sleep. We keep saying: put these terrorists into a nice US prison like Angola and they'll think Gitmo is the Waldorf Astoria and 4 Seasons combined. But no one listen to us.
We digress again. Among the complaints were two of such stupefying brutality that we still haven't recovered from the laughter - the next door neighbor was about to call 911 when we explained we were laughing and not having a terminal brain fit.
First, our terrorist complains there were no weight machines available. As everyone knows, in terrorist camps the first thing they put in is an LA Sports franchise gym, so depriving our terrorist of these necessities is indeed gratuitous mistreatment.
Second - can you imagine the horror? - he was given cheap, unscented soap and shampoo!
Doubtless he remained unmoved by the waterboarding and the US country music, the half-naked female MPs lasciviously rubbing themselves against him, the forced dressing up in Victoria's Secret latest fashions, and the crushing information that Victoria's Secret is that she is - um - not attracted to men but to - um - you know what we're saying here, and as such is unavailable to personally insult the religious mores of our terrorist, etc etc.
No. What broke him was the cheap, unscented soap and shampoo!
We have news for you, bub. The US is doing you a favor by giving you the stuff because if you happen to be allergic to perfume - as is your editor - bad things can happen to you. Further, bug (a slip of the pen is no slip of the mind), consider this: you're an enemy of America and you get this stuff FREE, courtesy of the Editor's taxes. The Editor is a friend of America and HE has to PAY huge prices for the unscented stuff.
Where's the justice in that, people? Why has America gone so wrong?
President Musharraf On Iraq Dear President/General Musarraf: we are glad that every now and then you show your true origins as a South Asian politician when you periodically plant a rather large boot in your mouth. India and Pakistan may have gone their separate ways as nations, but we're still blood brothers, aren't we, at least in this foot-in-mouth respect. It makes us feel so cozy, so close to you!
Sorry - forgot to mention that President Musharraf says there is so much bloodshed and killing in Iraq, a Muslim peacekeeping force must be sent.
Pause for respectful silence as we digest this stunningly brilliant idea. Followed by a:
Bwahahahahahahahaha!!!!
Um, don't you think the US has tried everything to get Muslim troops into Iraq, with no success? Forget the Muslim nations, is there one single nation willing to get involved in Iraq? The Coalition of the Heavily Sat Upon By The US - aka Coalition of the Willing - has fallen apart. Not even Washington's threats and inducements can get anyone to send troops to Iraq; those already in against their better judgment just want to get out ASAP. Is there anyone with better than an 8th Grade education who doesn't know this?
So where is this force going to come from? Turkey? Haha. The Kurds are not terrorists, you send the Turks to Iraq and you'll add yet another dimension to a very complicated insurgency because the Kurds will start attacking the Turks. Saudi? Great idea! Lets send 3 Saudi brigades to Baghdad. That will put them closer to the Shias they want to kill. Jordan? Sunnis, aside from the problem Jordan needs every brigade of its small army to protect against the crushing instability that has engulfed the region. Indonesia? That's a thought: hello, Indonesia, what do you think about sending troops to Iraq? Hint: that silence on the phone line does not mean the line is out of order. It means the Indonesians are a polite lot and don't want to insult anyone by saying what they really think of that idea.
Oh, wait! We forgot Pakistan! Pakistan has about 10 divisions as reserves for its holding troops. Surely the US can assure that India tries nothing while those 10 divisions are sent to keep the peace in Iraq. Great idea. Let's forget Pakistan is primarily a Sunni nation and the Government of Iraq will greet the Pakistani peacekeepers with the same enthusiasm as the Iranian government will greet US troops sent to keep the peace the peace between the government and its ethnic minorities.
But may we suggest, Sir, that you NOT bring this idea to the attention of your corps commanders? They will become convinced you've lost your mind and need to be deposed for your own safety
Bye Bye Wolfie, It Was Real when push came to shove, the pushers shoved and the US Administration found itself with just one ally, the Japanese. Particularly since no one is any longer suggesting that the next World Bank president be non-American, the Administration really has no particular stake in fighting for Mr. Wolfowitz. He is not a Friend of Mr. Bush, and reasonably, why should Mr. Bush expend political capital on someone he owes nothing to.
Be that as it may, for us the issue is not the World Bank and its shenanigans. Yesterday, for the first time, some sordid details emerged about Mr. Wolfowitz's partner. That too thanks not to the press, which has managed to make absolutely no headway in getting details, but to Mr. Wolfowitz via his defense of himsel