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0230 January 31, 2008

Orbat.com Clueless As Usual We had no idea that Colonel Karuna, the renegade LTTE commander who broke with the leadership, was on trial for entering the UK on a fake diplomatic passport. He pleaded guilty, saying that the Sri Lanka government had issued him a passport with his photograph but without his name and real details. The Sri Lanka government denies they gave him the passport. He said he wanted to see his wife and family, who live in the UK. He has been sentenced to 9 months jail time.
The Colonel left the LTTE with about 1000 of his men because he felt that the LTTE rebels were giving him the dangerous assignments without commensurate recognition. His departure was a big blow to the LTTE. We do not know how exactly he has been helping the government since his defection.
Press Trust of India reports the Sri Lanka Government says it killed 64 rebels on January 30. Unfortunately, the editor has not been back to South Asia for 17 years and is completely out of touch with the Sri Lanka situation. It is difficult to say if the everyday claims of 20,30,50, 70 rebels killed are propaganda or if they represent tangible progress in what the Sri Lanka government says is a final campaign against the rebels.
Boeing Tests Humvee Mounted Laser against IEDs says military.com, citing a Popular Mechanics article. The videos show the laser burning through the casings of artillery shells and mortar shells, "detonating them more or less instantly." The article sardonically adds: "As for bystanders, all bets are off."
A 1-KW laser was used. Boeing is also pushing the idea of using the laser for short-range missile defense and for ABM defense.
Though the article does not say so, we assume the vehicle mounted laser is used to sweep the road and sides ahead of a convoy.
Short Comment On The French Trader He says he was doing nothing other traders weren't, and that as long as he was making money, his bank looked the other way. He says he simply wanted to make money for his bank and get his bonus. The French magistrate on the case has refused to charge him with fraud which indicates that the court, at least, believes him. Things may, of course, change as investigations continue. Nonetheless, we think a whole raft of senior staff is for the high jump in this matter: we suspect their troubles are just starting.
UFOs A reader sent us a book - Nick Cook's The Hunt for Zero Point published in 2002 after reading our comments on the Texas UFO incident. We lack the knowledge to judge whether or not the book is scientifically and/or historically correct.On the plus side, Mr. Cook had been Jane's aviation editor for 10 years. Jane's we. believe, is vastly overrated on land forces, something about which we do know something. Nonetheless. you cannot be a sensationalist and work for Jane's. One the minus side, the writing style is quite off-putting: it is sensationalist and not the sober, skeptical analysis one would expect of a serious investigative journalist.
But it does have interesting points that presumably can be easily verified. We're still reading it for a second time, but here's what we've picked up so far that might interest our readers.
The Germans in World War II worked on fighters in the shape of flying saucers, and some of these aircraft may actually have flown - the famous FOO fighters. Why a saucer shape? Apparently because if you rotate the saucer at sufficiently high speeds you may be able to neutralize gravity.
Zero Point energy, or - if we have correctly understood the quick reading we did of some web sources - vacuum energy or quantum energy is scientifically feasible. The real question is: has the US, working through a black program, been able to master the technology, or is the matter beyond our present capability? If you can tap this energy, you do not need fuel to run power stations or to power aircraft/spacecraft. The US Patent Office does not grant patents to such ideas, which are of the perpetual motion machine variety. But apparently in 2002 it did so grant a patent. Mr. Cook takes this to prove that someone in the Patent Office was convinced. Equally, however, someone in the Patent Office might just have made a mistake in giving the patent.
Mr. Cook talks about NASA's interest in using Zero Point energy devices to shield the International Space Station from meteorites and space junk. Assuming NASA actually is interested, such devices could also be used to intercept missiles and to attack land targets from space, with devastating results.
We'd always thought that the B-2 and F-117 are stealthy because they are coated with radar absorbing material and because the shape of the aircraft breaks up radar signals so that whatever reflection take place is signal gibberish. If we understand Mr. Cook correctly, there is more to it than that. The aerodynamics of the aircraft create a sort of protective capsule which cannot be penetrated by radar.
The reader who sent us the book appends a note: with reference to the mysterious "Astra". If you do some research, you'll find that the physical description of the Texas UFO is something that has been creditably sighted many times in the past decade, particularly around Air Mobility Command Airbases, and even with perfectly human-looking, American English speaking crewmen.

0230 January 30, 2008

Pakistan: Mixed Picture Tuesday bought more confusions. On the one hand, Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org reported that the Army had negotiated a peace deal in North Waziristan. The Army has already begun withdrawals.
But then a missile or missiles struck a house and killed 12 people. The Pakistani government says they were all Taleban. The locals say they were merely local tribesmen. Mr. Roggio reminds that a similar peace deal for Bajaur Agency went kaput in 2006 after a missile strike.
So is the US attempting to sabotage the North Waziristan deal? If it is, we cannot criticize the Americans because these peace deals result in just one outcome: a strengthening of the extremists. On the other hand, from everything we hear the Pakistan Army is way overextended over the expanding fighting. The issue is not troops: the Pakistan Army has 600,000 men under arms and is increasing its troop strength. The issue is that the Army is badly divided on the matter of the insurgents. One faction sees them as a threat to Pakistan. We agree. because the Taliban's objective is to set up an independent state in the region. But the other faction says that the Army should not be fighting it's own people. This argument has some validity, but we'd like this faction to remember that the Pakistan Army had no problem fighting the East Bengalis, and several times the Baluchis. Are/were these people not Pakistanis?
Meanwhile, fighting in South Waziristan and Swat continues, though Swat seems to be settling down, at least for the moment.
The Silver Lining in the North West Frontier Province fighting is that Taliban are withdrawing from Afghanistan to join combat in the NWFP. If this trend continues, the expected big spring offensive in Afghanistan may turn out to be a fizzle.
New US Base For Operations Against Pakistan Insurgents says Asia Times The base in Kunar Province. Afghanistan is 5 kilometers from the border across from Bajaur Province.
Asia Times says the US will strike inside Pakistan with or without the cooperation of the Pakistan government. We've said many times the US regularly operates inside Pakistan, but if this report has correctly assessed US intentions then we will see a major escalation in US operations.
The question arises: the US may have the will to expand its operations, but does it have the means? This thing is going to escalate: the Taliban are going to push back and the US will have to keep committing more resources.
Asia Times points out the Taliban are trying to cut Coalition lines of communication between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This must naturally be countered. But if the US is now to take on the Taliban in the North West Frontier Province, it not only has to find resources for this new fight, it has to plan for the non-Taliban tribals who will line up against it. And it has to take into account that it will be dropping a big bomb into the very fragile internal security situation in Pakistan. The potential complications are enormous, and none of the outcomes will be favorable.
We are only commenting, not criticizing: the US has to do something about Pakistan. But - as we've repeatedly said - all options are bad. The American instinct is to attack. But where are the resources for a new theatre of war? Are we going to run up the deficit further? Are we again going to keep deploying brigades for extended periods without giving them a chance to rest? How much more pressure can the government put on the ground forces?
If the US was adding 6-10 divisions we'd be all for this expansion. But the US is planning to add 5-6 brigades - six and a half years after 9/11 none are deployed, the Army is talking about 2011 as it's target date.
Ten years to add six brigades? Has the US government lost its little mind?
Stupid question. The government lost its mind in 2003 and shows no signs of recovery.
Kenya Violence Abates BBC reports only nine were killed on Tuesday. Former UN chief Kofi Annan open talks as mediator between the President and the opposition leader.

0230 January 29, 2008

Intra-Tribal Violence Escalates In Western Kenya A series of tit-for-tat attacks by members of the Kikuyu and Luo on each other has been going on for some days. This is an extension of the original violence which erupted over alleged abuses in the election of the president. For a while the violence became sporadic but now seems to be becoming endemic.
In the first round of fighting about 300 people were killed, most thought to be victims of the police. But by now an additional 500 have died.
For an understanding of the causes behind the riots, read BBC at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7213211.stm
Pakistan Army Continues Slow Advance In Dara Adam Khel Locals report that artillery is being freely used as well as attack helicopters. Two fighters flew attack sorties on Monday, adding to the growing civilian casualties.
We are disturbed by this use of firepower, but we don't see what else the Pakistan Army can do. The insurgents number in the thousands, and fight individual battles in the hundreds. India in Kashmir saw relatively few battles of this magnitude and was able to restrain its use of firepower. But the Pakistanis are facing major fights every day.
Sri Lanka Says 63 LTTE Insurgents Killed in separate battles on Monday, reports Press Trust of India. Air strikes are being used, as well as snipers.
Meanwhile, the LTTE says it shelled Palaly military airfield in the Northern Jaffna peninsual, forcing it to shut down to military and civil traffic.
Also meanwhile PTI says that Sri Lanka is buying arms from Pakistan because other countries including India are reluctant to provide weapons. But Sri Lanka finds Pakistani arms more expensive than comparable Chinese equipment. We don't know if China also is worried about supplying weapons.
From Feisal Khan With reference to Major AH Amin's article yesterday, where you said you did not know what "Hindco" meant.
Hindko is a language spoken in large parts of NWFP and used to be the language of the old city of Peshawar until the Afghans took it all over. Most Peshawari Hindko speakers (men at least) are bilingual in Hindko and Pashto. Hindko is also spoken by some Pathan tribes that settled in Hindko speaking areas. 'Real' Pathans do not consider Hindko speakers to be Pathans but I have seen some references to "Punjabi Pathans;" but that is indeed a strange one!
From Mandeep Singh Bajwa Hindko is a dialect of Punjabi spoken in the Hazara area of NWFP - Abbottabad, Haripur etc. Field Marshal Ayub Khan was a Hindko speaking Pathan.

0230 January 28, 2008

News

Pakistan Army Recaptures Kohat Tunnel says Jang of Pakistan but is proceeding carefully in case the tunnel has been booby-trapped. The militants say they have four suicide bombers waiting in four trucks inside the tunnel and they will blow it up if the Pakistan Army enters.
Societe Generale Trader Bought $73-Billion Futures says the French bank, which is looking at a $7-billion loss after the trades were discovered and reversed. The betting is the bank has lost a lot more money than that.
This is a curious case, not least because of the sums involved. The previous record was held by a trader at the British Barings Bank who lost $1.6-billion. The sum of money is about one-and-a-half times the Bank's entire capital.
What's odd is that the trader had a limit less than $1-million. Further, says the bank, within 12-months he learned how to circumvent six layers of security. To do that it seems to us the trader must be a computer genius, but from media reports about his background there is no indication he is one such.
Further, there is no allegation he made any money himself. He voluntarily surrendered to the police and is cooperating. Based on information he has given so far, his lawyers say he is innocent.
Many people are saying the Bank is scape-goating him. He is known as both trusting and cooperative, so the assumption is he acted at the behest of someone with the authority to give him orders and to bypass the security systems. Some financial experts are saying they suspect the Bank is using its trader to cover up subprime mortgage losses.
This affair must deal a big blow to American finance egos. Americans think they are the biggest in everything, but the loss dwarfs anything Americans can imagine. Of course, in America finance people stay within the law, lose tens of billons for their firms, and are fired with multi-gazillion dollar severances. They can then get a little quality time off before returning to Wall Street for another round of rip-offs.

Waziristan

Normally the article below by Major AH Amin (Pakistan Army, Retired) would be in ANALYSIS. But because of the importance of the topic, we're printing it here. For those unfamiliar with Major Amin: he writes for a Pakistani audience and readers may find some of his references a bit oblique. We've explained best we can. He is very sharp spoken, without dissimulation or politeness. His acerbic characterization of Pakistani intelligence is, alas, all too common among the world's intelligence agencies. As for his attack on Pakistan Army tactics, the same can be said of many armies we need not name.

Waziristan is the testing ground, the acid test of Pakistan Army's worth in the so- called war against terrorism.
What is the Pakistani intelligence ? An intelligence operative stated that they don't have the guts to go out of a fort of FC in Waziristan. They meekly step out of a Qila (fort) and stop some truck drivers and ask what's going on. From what they scramble all the guys from Military Intelligence, the ISI , the Corps Intelligence and the FC Intelligence sit down and make a generally similar report. The guy who compares all reports in GHQ jumps with joy when he sees all these reports and states that all reports can be cross checked and are correct. There is the Sab Accha mentality since Mughal times. Sab Accha means All Correct. So in the final summing it is gleefully concluded that the writ of the Pakistani Government is established in all parts of tribal areas! Glory be to Allah.
I recently met some mid-ranking and major-general level army officers and discussed Waziristan with them. We concluded:
- Waziristan is a case of clash of interests among ambitious officers trying to get a good chit (report) and serious regimental officers who see soldiering as a way of life. The fast-track guys want to bash up some villages with artillery fire and do some dog catching for Americans and improve their career index called OEI.
- The first major disaster was Lt.-Gen. Safdar, a Punjabi and a careerist. He wanted a fast-track approach for the problem, .His policy was bomb everyone, kill everyone and get the feathers in the cap for being a conqueror. This was counter-productive. The armed forces lost all credibility in this area. Safdar was finally packed off to the post of director logistics in the army Headquarters a post seen as waiting area for dumped generals.
- Lieutenant General Hamid Khan, a Pashtun armored corps officer from 11 Cavalry was not effective. During his tenure the army was neither here nor there. He was serving for most of the time when the Waziristan accord had been signed.
- The present corps commander Masud Aslam was a Kargil Warrior! (Major Amin is not being complimentary.) He again tried to introduce the Safdar policy with disastrous results.
- One Major General level divisional commander stood out. Strangely it was a Shia officer, Major General Mir Haider. Although a Punjabi he understood the Pasthun psyche and did well. His modus operandi was psy war. Healing the tribal eg . Gifting copies of Holy Quran.
- Another Major General Sahi was a failure. Again he was using the Safdar approach. Kill , batter , destroy and bomb. Sahi had close links with the Quisling PML (President Musharraf's political party: the writer believes Pakistan has sold out to the Americans) as his brother was a politician from that party. In words of a direct participant officer, he was also a total failure. He was finally packed off as commandant of infantry school. Another resting place of dumped generals. In his dining out he said that he had established writ of Pakistani Government in Waziristan and was corrected there and then by a serving army officer that this was a white lie. He was challenged that he could not drive with his GOC's flag from Miran Shah to Bannu even with an escort! He was infamous in the Frontier Corps Officers for trying to prod them to attack this village or that because he wanted to get a good chit from his bosses.
- A serving army officer in that area compared Pakistan Army and the FC in Waziristan to a mouse running from point A to point B while he said that the tribals were the lazy cat watching this despicable mouse.
We further concluded:
- The great danger is not Pakistan but the fall-out after its demise.
- The great danger to the West is not the hopeless Pakistani state but non-state actors
- The more Pakistani Don Quixotes are proved to be spineless clowns in Waziristan, the more dangerous the situation becomes.
- Warfare has become cheap. It is easy to rock the boat and non-state actors are good at this.
- The front is unclear. The distinction between friend and foe unclear.
My assessment is that if the Americans decide to knock out Pakistan , in strategic terms , there will be no resistance in Punjab and Sindh ,only the Pashtuns will be their adversaries and the settled area Pashtuns will be as hopeless as the Punjabis and Sindhis.
Pakistan's military and political establishment is simply hopeless. This theme is discussed in my article "5 minutes over Islamabad" (the article details how the US forced Pakistan to join it's side in the GWOT.) The Pakistani military junta has already lost all credibility with the Pakistani population and cannot control the situation.
Even the Americans will not achieve much if they enter Waziristan. The terrain is bad and Americans will be a good cause for Jihad. The solution is withdrawal from Waziristan and regime change in Pakistan. The Americans should let the hopeless Paki politicians do the dirty job of all this.
As an officer who served in Pakistan Army I would sum up the situation as following:
- The Pakistani High Command a Punjabi-Mohajir (Mohajirs are Pakistans who migrated from India to the new country of Pakistan in/after 1947) team lacks the grey matter or resolve to deal with the tribals.
- The troops they are commanding have lost faith in the cause they are fighting for. This is the worst thing for an army.
- All said and done the tribals can be dealt politically. Any Pakistani officer who is posted as commander 11 Corps is a job seeker. He is trying to be a Napoleon and a Punjabi cannot be a Napoleon with a tribal!
- The present Governor of NWFP Owais Ghani has already miserably failed in Baluchistan. He is regarded as a non-Pashtun as he is the hated Hindko Punjabi (we dont know what Hindko means; Hind generally refers to India) speaking from Peshawar city just like General Kakar, whose first cousin he is.
- The whole situation requires a change in command in Pakistan from top to bottom.

0230 January 27, 2008

Taliban Capture Kohat Tunnel severing the main road link between Peshawar and several southern districts of the North West Frontier Province reports Jang of Pakistan and the Frontier Post.
The Frontier Post says that the Taliban captured 40 paramilitary soldiers trying to retake a communications tower on top of the tunnel. Eight of the men, presumably Shias, were beheaded and their heads displayed in the main bazaar of Dara Adam Khel, the main town near the 1900-meter long tunnel. It also says that the Taliban are wearing paramilitary uniforms.
The Pakistan Army is yet to assault the town. It temporarily ceased fire on the night of 25/26 January when requested by local tribal leaders who were trying to negotiate a truce. But while the Taliban leader Baituallah Mehsud agreed to return captured vehicles and troops, he wanted the Pakistan Government to release captured Taliban leaders and to cease operations in South Waziristan.
Obviously this is unacceptable to the Government so the Army resumed operations on Saturday.
Separately, Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org says the Pakistan Army has recovered about half of South Waziristan. But the seizure of the strategic Kohat tunnel shows the Taliban are expanding the war
Saddam's Motives Washington Post says Saddam's interrogator has said Saddam initially expected only an air campaign to punish his defiance of the UN and he was prepared to ride it out. Even when the invasion was imminent, he believed he had to hang tough because otherwise Iran might attack Iraq.
This still begs the question why, when the man did not have WMDs he drove the UN out, giving the US an excuse to attack using the UN as an unwilling fig leaf.
The interrogators revelations do answer - partially - the question of why Saddam attacked Kuwait. Readers might remember that when Saddam sent an envoy asking the Arabs to reduce the debt he had incurred fighting Iran, arguing that he had helped to protect the Arab states against Iranian fundamentalism, the Kuwaiti negotiator spat on Saddam's envoy's shoes and said Kuwait wanted every dollar back with interest. This was commonly cited as the provocation that led to the invasion.
There is more to it than that, apparently. Saddam told the interrogator that emir of Kuwait said that his country would stop doing what it was doing - presumably insisting on its money - only when Iraq was so impoverished that every Iraqi woman was reduced to prostitution.
Folks, there is no doubt that Saddam deserved to die. But wouldn't you agree that if the above happened it is a causus belli? Politics is personal for the Arabs. You'd have to be an effete degenerate to swallow that insult.
Gaza Crisis Continues For a 4th Day Egypt has been trying to control the border, 38 policemen were injured in one incident. The rush continues from other breaches. Egypt has been trying to work out a compromise with Israel which involves Israel opening the Gaza crossing.
Reader Flymike asks with reference to our post yesterday what is wrong with Israel retaliating against Palestinian rockets. Absolutely nothing: Israel has the right of self-defense. Our objection was to Israel's disproportionate response in terms of casualties it inflicts on the Palestinians versus the casualties the Palestinians inflict on Israel and to its collective punishment. Last we figured, the ratio is 100-1. A lot of the Palestine 100 are civilians. Both disproportionate retaliation and collective punishment are barred by today's codes of conflict.
To punish civilians for the acts of militants/terrorists on the assumption if you oppress the civilians sufficiently they will turn against the militants/terrorists is mass cruelty and flies against common sense.
For example, did the French turn against Vichy in response to the collective punishments inflicted by the Germans? Did the Soviet people turn against their their government when the Germans inflicted collective punishments in response to Soviet partisans?
Japanese Scientist Solves Problem Of Methane Belching Cows A simple diet additive costing $1/day will eliminate the methane, according to a report in Times London. Belching cows are responsible for 5% of global warming. There are 1.5-billion cattle in the world.
Okay, seeing as probably 1-billion are in the 3rd World, forget the $1/day business: that's too much by a factor of 10 and even at 10-cents the additive will have to be subsidized by governments.
But we appreciate that people are working on these problems.
Meanwhile, comments from Times readers: Jean Booth, Hague, Netherlands: "Death by 'bovine belching'.... well its different anyway! Pity though that scientists can't capture and convert these methane burps into heating and cooking gas. No need for nuclear power then!"
C. Fowler, Wakefield, West Yorkshire: "Will it be added to baked beans as well ?"
Victor Arram, Westcliff, Essex "The quicker we eat all these cows the better, we can then concentrate (on the) sheep."
Another "Laff A While" Item Jang of Pakistan reports the top Iranian military commander threatens Iran will retaliate against US bases in the Gulf if attacked.
We are certain the US has permanently cancelled all plans to attack Iran after this warning.
Males Are Such Idiots Friday last the editor was giving a Geometry chapter exam. One female student who never comes to class and who is "quite advanced for her age" decided to show up. She took one look at the test paper and said: "I don't know any of this stuff". Since it was a multiple choice test the editor told her to guess in preference to turning in a blank paper.
Now, the editor is 70% deaf and cannot wear hearing aids. But, as he has explained to his students, there's nothing wrong with eyesight, augmented as it is with spectacles of an embarrassingly high power. His students, however, persist in the belief that since he can't hear, he can't see.
Well, pretty soon he saw the young lady exchanging many smiles with the top student in the section. She has never said a word to any of the boys when she comes to class, but now not only smiles were being bestowed on the top student, but ample cleavage was being displayed. A little later a surreptitious exchange of answer papers was effected.
The editor let the young lady almost complete her copying and then strolled over seemingly with his mind on other things and pounced on the answer sheets.
Then the editor told the Top Student, in front of the class, that he completely sympathized with him because the editor himself has a long history of being led astray by women - since age seven, in fact. The editor also complimented the young lady because she tried to take the entire blame by saying she had removed the paper from Top Student's desk without his knowing. This was a blatant lie, but it was courageous of her to protect him and showed she has character. But, said the editor, the zeroes stood.
So our readers will say: "And your point is?"
Actually, this time the editor does have a point. Read this story about the British diplomat who left his wife for an Uzbek belly dancer http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JA25Ag01.html
Heck, for this dancer the editor would gladly leave his wife. Readers will also no doubt snarkily say that neither is the editor a diplomat with the power to get a passport for his girlfriend. nor does he have a wife to leave as his wife has left him. True, but those are irrelevant details.
Nonetheless, as we said earlier, males are such idiots.

0230 January 26, 2008

The Situation Regarding The Gaza-Egypt Fence is rapidly becoming complicated, with the UN yesterday saying it thought as many as half of Gaza's 1.5-million people have traveled to Egypt. Yesterday the crush of people was so immense the Egyptians have given up on trying to stop the rush. The Palestinians have further expanded the breach. Below is a series of observations/information making a snapshot with a "to the best of our knowledge" caveat attached.
Hamas made preparation several months ago for the breach when it gave the go ahead, it was a simple matter of detonating pre-set explosives.
Reinforcements for Hamas are crossing into Gaza with civilians returning from shopping and other trips. Many are wanted militants who were hiding in Egypt, but many appear to be reinforcements previously barred from entry by the fence and by the tight Israeli naval blockade of the Gaza sea frontier.
This breach means trouble not just for Israel, but also for President Abbas. The reinforcements will undercut Fatah's already tenuous hold on Palestine both in terms of military force, and in terms of propaganda. "Hamas does something for the Palestinians while Fatah collaborates with the enemy" and that sort of thing.
The more we think about it, the more we wonder how a traditionally hapless bunch of Palestinians has been so cunningly clever. Is it that Hamas represents a new breed of very smart Palestinian? If so, Israel is in trouble. Or is it that this sort of planning is the result of lessons taught by Teheran? That also means trouble, but perhaps less so than the first case.
Israel is fed up and wants to hand over Gaza to the Egyptians This is certainly a course that needs exploration, but then Israelis should be clear their main purpose in forcing the creation of the Egyptian fence - stopping movement of men and arms that will be used against Israel - will be vitiated
Readers in some blogs are expressing surprise that a fence also exists on the Egypt-Gaza border. There are comments such as: "so the Arabs also block the Palestinians and they blame Israel for blockading the Palestinians".
While there is no doubt the Palestinians have been pawns in various Arab games against Israel, it needs to be understood that the Egypt fence exists because of US-Israeli pressure on Cairo. It was forced on Egypt for Israel's security.
There are allegations of Egyptian complicity in the failure to stop the breaches and flow of population. But there is another side to the matter. Israel lays down the law on how many Egyptian police/military can be stationed in the Sinai. While sufficient under normal circumstances, in these extraordinary circumstances the Egyptian police are simply overwhelmed.
And they are not about to start machinegunning hundreds of thousands of children, women, men just because Israel wants them kept penned in Gaza. We are not sure this is complicity. Had the Egyptians used force, there would have been an international uproar of immense proportions, quite aside from the reality that thousands of Palestinians are armed and the Egyptian police would have been shot down.
"Palestinians are bringing TVs and refrigerators: this is a starving population?" Doubtless some Palestinians are bringing TVs and cell phones. But the great majority are either bringing necessities or making trips to see families which have been severed since the border was closed. Please also keep in mind that many people are using whatever cartons are available. Unless some reporter has made an examination of cartons on a random basis, we'd be careful about judging the contents.
Also, we'd like to see what the reaction of westerners would be if they were unable to get replacement TVs and parts and cell phones. Would they consider they were not deprived? The type of comment above is pure racism.
In our opinion: Hamas has out-maneuvered Israel making Israel look like the keeper of the gulag. This is hardly an inaccurate picture to begin with. While the world is a lot more sympathetic to the Israeli need for security than Israel and its supporters would have us believe, the difficulty the world is having is with Israel's disproportionate response in punishing an entire population for the misdeeds of some of its members.
Thanks to its barriers, Israel has almost eliminated terrorist bombings. It is now faced with a new threat, the rockets. But what Israel has to understand is that you can kill a hundred Palestinians and impose economic hardships on the populations for every Israeli killed. The notion that a hundred Palestinians are a fair exchange for one Israeli has extremely unfortunate connotations for a Europe that just two generations experienced something similar at the hands of the Nazis.
By punishing the civilians again and again, by appropriating their land, a process that continues till today, by denying them justice, by restricting the availability of items as simple as hearing-aid batteries, Israel is only making more mortal enemies. Approximately half of Israel understands this and the world should be very careful of condemning Israel as a people. But the other half doesn't, and all Israel pays for its intransigence.
As always we repeat our caveat that we say all the above fully aware that even if Israel tomorrow pulled back to its 1967 borders, there will be Palestinians and Arabs who will continue attacking Israel by every means possible. We are not blaming Israel as much as pointing out that every action has a reaction.
And the Arabs need to realize that for its part, Israel can easily continue this destructive game for another 60 years if need be, and then 60 years more after that. The Israelis are not going to give in.
Our pessimism arises because this is a zero sum game. It will not end till one side has exterminated the other.
We'd also like to remind Teheran of a simple reality. It's easy to say "we'll risk nuclear annihilation if we have to but we'll take Israel out". If, however, anyone uses N-weapons against Israel, several N-powers will join in annihilating Iran above and beyond the catastrophic damage the Israelis will cause even as they are going down. This is because a nation that is not in extremis - or even under a direct threat - but still uses N-weapons against an ideological enemy, will be deemed by far the greater threat to the world. Iran will be wiped off the world map.
We assume the Iranians know this and their expressions of rage are mere rhetoric for domestic consumption and deflection of domestic opposition to the regime. So we assume our warning is just simply a pointless exercise. But what we are saying still needs to be said.
We'd also like to note that Iran can kill every single Israeli living in Israel - you'll also be killing a few million Arabs in the immediate region - but all that will be achieved, aside from the death of Iran, will be a new state of Israel in the exact same location. And with two holocausts in their experience instead of just one, the new Israelis will be a hundred times more intransigent than the current Israelis.

0230 January 25, 2008

President Karzai Attacks British Role in Helmand and says his government had control of Helmand before the British took over two years and now, he says, things have gone south. He says he trusted the Americans and British when they told him the provincial governor must be replaced and also the police force. But because there were no local people to take over from those fired, provincial government collapsed and that allowed the Taliban to recapture the province.
Now, folks, we are no fans of either the British or the American way of fighting counterinsurgencies. Both countries are forcing their way of doing things on a country that very much has its own way of doing things. Both countries treat Afghanistan like a colony - as the Americans do also with Iraq. When it comes to political matters, you can tell a Britisher nothing, he is so convinced he knows it all already. When it comes to military matters and training local forces you can tell an American nothing, for he knows it all. Further, both the British and the American public suffer from ADHD and the constant emphasis on quick results undercuts any rational CI strategy, which has to look at at 30-50 year framework.
But this said, we'd like to ask President Karzai: is he sure the Taliban came back because the British messed up Helmand? It can more convincingly be argued that had the British not come to Helmand, it would have been Goodbye Helmand. How could a corrupt but tough governor stopped the Taliban? How could the corrupt and ineffective police force, more skilled at oppressing the people than at fighting enemies, have stopped the Taliban?
The Taliban, as is now blindingly evident, was being quietly rebuilt by Pakistan these past five years. It began striking back in 2006 and in 2007 it gained effective control over most of the country. The US in 2007 didn't have anyone to spare for Afghanistan; it could not stage two surges. But for the British, it seems likely the Taliban would have outflanked the Americans and been a lot closer to Kabul then they are today.
We understand the President's frustration. His allies are arrogant beyond measure, particularly the current US ambassador to Kabul who we are told is an unasked ally of the Taliban in that he acts so stupidly he's making enemies of the Afghanis and giving the Taliban a bigger boost than they could dream of on their own.
We have to note that we have no spoken with the US Ambassador and have no intention of wasting our time. We have to nonetheless put his view of his performance on record. As far as he and his allies are concerned, he is kicking the butts of corrupt, inefficient Afghans. And if our boys and gals are fighting to save the sorry rear ends of the sorry Afghanis, who but for us would be back under Taliban rule, we have an absolute right to tell the Afghanis what to do. So on and so forth.
So, back to our point: we understand Mr. Karzai's frustrations. But even if he is angry, he should be fair. Compared to the Americans, the British operate under very serious limitations with regard to manpower, firepower, airmobility, just about anything else you can think of. The problem is not that there are too many of them messing up the place. It's that they are too few of them to defeat the Taliban in South Afghanistan.
Pakistan Army Opens Another Offensive In South Waziristan You can read an excellent summary from Pakistani media at http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/01/pakistani_army_launc.php
We're slightly confused about the reports which say 600 Pakistani soldiers are involved in this offensive. Given the magnitude of the task, 6000 - ten times as many - would be too few. If the figure is correct, then the Pakistanis are simply doing another Show And Tell for America's benefit.
Goodbye, General Motors Washington Post Business section January 24, 2008 says that GM retained its No. 1 world ranking last year, but only by a margin of 36,000 cars over Toyota, current No. 2. So its likely in 2008 it's going to be Goodbye GM and Hello Toyota, at least as far as cars are concerned. Toyota has already beat out Ford as No. 2 auto manufacturer.
We will be told by "sophisticated" analysts how none of this matters and that Toyota USA is as American as apple pie. Trouble is, Toyota USA is not American, but Japanese. But the analysts will be right in a few years: at the rate America is giving away its lead in every conceivable field, there will be nothing to left to give away and then it really won't matter.
America will, of course, remain Number 1 for English language movies. No one can make more entertaining movies than Hollywood. Some years ago more than half the movie tickets sold in fiercely nationalist France were for American movies. The biggest moviemaker for years and years has been, of course, Bollywood.
So if you want to console yourself that America is not totally washed up yet, think movies.

0230 January 24, 2008

USAF Says UFO Sighting Was F-16s On January 8 between 6-8PM US Central Time several people in Texas and adjacent states saw what they believed to be UFOs. So when have we taken to reporting UFO sightings? We haven't, but we're going to cite this case as an example why many people the Government lies to them about this, that, and the other.
The USAF immediately said that none of its aircraft were up at that time. Fair enough, and that should have been the end of the matter despite some pretty graphic descriptions of the sighting.
But, lo and behold - more than two weeks later the USAF says: "Er, we actually had 10 F-16s from a reserve fighter wing in the air. There was some confusion between various departments when the original denial was made."
Now, folks, we no more believe in UFOs of the alien variety than most people. We accept the mind plays tricks, the atmosphere can create illusions, normal aeronautical operations can be mistaken, and it's always possible the Government is testing new and/or bizarre aerial vehicles.
The problem with UFO sightings is that so many different shapes are reported, you either have to believe that the entire galaxy is coming to visit the Earth Zoo, or that aliens have a matter converter and anyone can run off a spaceship in the configuration that pleases them.
Many sightings are made by civilian/military pilots who as a breed are highly trained and are intimately familiar with the sky and the tricks it plays. These are not so easily explained, but then not everything can be explained.
But the above story shows why it's easy to believe that people believe the Government lies. An airbase has 10 F-16s in the air and the base's departments are confused as to what's going on? You either believe the Government is lying or that some people at the base are incompetent. It's simpler to believe in the incompetent people theory. Okay, so mistakes were made.
But it takes the Government 14 days to work out it had 10 fighters up at the time? Okay, so it could be that we should not be entrusting our air defenses to an air force that is seriously confused about its own flights. Sometimes the chain of incompetencies seem so bizarre that even rational people have to wonder if a coverup is in progress. And if you are already inclined to believe the Government systematically covers up UFO sightings, then you immediately see a fatal flaw in the Government narrative, that 14-day delay.
The Editor Has Not Seen A UFO except the perfectly ordinary Near Planets spaceship that brought him from his home on Mars to Earth on a super-secret mission. At least that's what his controller told him. But after near 50 years of anxiously waiting each April 31 for the mothership, without success, the Editor is starting to think the Martian Government simply wanted to get rid of him because he knows...oh ho, readers are not going to get secrets out of him that easily. Loose Lips Sink Ships and all that.
Yet, the Editor has his share of bizarre stories - none involving a UFO. The most odd in recent years happened when he arrived at his school an hour early to catch up on work that the principal wanted by opening bell, 8 AM. Letting himself into the school, the Editor, being a Certain Age, headed with great urgency for the nearest urinal. Men who are a Certain Age will know of what he speaks.
Now, urinal etiquette requires that you do not look around and you focus solely on your own business. But after a few seconds the Editor sensed someone else was in the bathroom. He looked to his left and saw another staff member two urinals away. So he nodded to the staff member, who returned with a nod and an apologetic smile. It was a trifle odd that someone else was in school that early, and the staff member was not one who had possession of a front-door key, but what the hey: may be the Principal had given her key to the staff member for her own reasons. (At this school a lot of us were on secret missions at any given time so you learned not to ask questions.) The staff member finished before the Editor did - said staff member being considerably younger, and went off with another nod of acknowledgement.
So what's the point of this story, you ask. Another person relieving themselves at a urinal, big deal.
Well, the odd thing was that the staff member was a lady, and As Far As The Editor Knew to that point in his life, ladies do come into the gents bathrooms when urgency dictates, but they generally do not stand to do their business, they use a stall with a WC.
Now, if one has been Properly Brought Up, as the Editor has, if people are behaving peculiarly you do not ask them about their behavior. You politely ignore them, particularly if it's a lady.
So the Editor felt no compulsion to ask his colleague what she was doing in the men's room when no one else was in the building and several women's loos were unoccupied.
Plus the Editor routine has odd experiences and he doesn't think much about them.
Okay, you say, we did ask what is the point of the story.
The point is that at 8:30, an hour-and-a-half later, the Editor was standing in the front reception area when the lady in question walked in hurriedly, out of breath, holding coffee and a bagel. Obviously she had gone out for a few minutes. Since reporting time was 8:00 AM, the Editor immediately said to the lady: "No need to rush, I can vouch that you were here at 7:00 AM. You're not late, but you need to let me know when you leave the building in case the Principal is asking for you."
The lady said: "But I am late, my youngest was being really difficult about getting ready for school, and I didn't get to leave till 7:45 AM."
The Editor said: "Think nothing of it." Since he has a reputation for peculiar statements, she did think nothing of it. And he has a reputation for having bizarre experiences, he also thought nothing of it.

0230 January 23, 2008

Anti-Government Militias Gaining Strength in Sudan according to a MISNA report sent to us by reader Marcopetroni. The item is available at http://www.misna.org/news.asp?a=1&IDLingua=1&id=204329
In part it says: “In Middle and Lower Juba, the Shabaab (militias somewhat tied to the Islamic Courts), are said to be recruiting and planning attacks thanks also to the instability generated by inter-clan rivalries” says the report, which also noted that government troops have been pushed back from Bardoogle. In the region of Bay, meanwhile, there have been several attacks against Somali and Ethiopian troops”. The daily violence continues and fuels analysts’ pessimism."
The report says the UN is considering replacing the AU force with its own mission. Back to the future?
An Explosive Report On Iraq - If It's True Folks, you'd better read this yourself. Its the first part of an article by Mark Perry of the Conflicts Forum We saw the article in Asia Times, but were unable to find it ion the Conflicts Forum site.
There's a lot of information in there. What we thought of interest:
According to article the military is saying improvement in Iraq is NOT the result of the surge but of the Awakenings, and the White House did its best to stop the Marines from doing the Awakening thing. The Marines say that they wanted to do it in 2004, and two years was lost because of White House interference. In 2006 the Marines went ahead against White House orders because they figured it was their war and not the White House's war. Meaning they were doing the fighting and the dying, not the White House.
You can see the ramifications of this article - again, we say if it's true. It's like an ocean tanker load of manure being dumped on the White House's conduct of the war. And of course no one needs Mark Perry to tell them the Administration's conduct of this war has been one disaster after another.
The article says the Marine commander in Iraq stood up for his subordinates and also Mr. Rumsfeld, who hated the White House lot (read Ms. Rice and henchmen) insisted the new strategy be executed. After Anbar beginnings, the Army decided to also adopt the strategy.
If all this is true we first have to express much admiration for the Marine high command. Then we have to see if we express admiration for Mr. Rumsfeld. The way we read the article, anything Ms. Rice was against he was for and vice-versa. But if independent of that he believed the Awakening was a good idea, we'd have to give him credit for doing one smart thing, at least. A very small redemption for a massive list of failures over Iraq.
Letter on Senator McCain and Florida A reader writes: "Senator McCain relies heavily on independents to win. Florida's Republican primary is closed, i.e., only registered Republicans can vote. This may create problems for him."

Our reaction If the Republican Party wants to commit suicide by nominating someone else other than Senator McCain, that is entirely its business. If it wants a chance to win, Republicans have to nominate him.

0230 January 22, 2008

Hamas Rockets The editor's YMCA has installed TVs on some exercise machines. Today the editor actually watched TV for a few minutes. Fox News showed Palestine militants positioning and firing rockets.
The one thing that struck the editor was that except that the Palestine rocketeers run a lot faster after lighting the fuse, the process seemed about as accurate as that he achieved during his bottle-rocket days. Since the editor fired his rockets from a mountain into the valley there was little chance of anyone getting hurt. The Palestine rockets, however, do have crude warheads. There is no doubt if they actually hit something they would cause casualties.
In this connection perhaps Hamas can learn something from one of Osama's sons. This man broke with his father because he did not think it right to target civilians. He has turned his energies to non-violent protest.
We've said this before: the Palestinians would get a lot further if they used non-violence. When you cannot militarily defeat the enemy, having right on your side is the most powerful weapon of all.
The US can afford to bash anyone who stands in its way because its military cannot be resisted. The Americans don't need right or God on their side because in 2000-lb JDAMs we trust and all that.
The Palestinians have no military might worth mention. They might be surprised at how quickly they could defeat Israel if they turned to non-violence.
Senator John McCain Re. our comment that the Senator is too much of a maverick and has made too many enemies in his own party to succeed: by coincidence, both one of the few Washington insiders we keep in touch with and the syndicated columnist Robert Novak says that the Senator has learned his lesson and has toned down his sharp edges.
He still maintains his fiercely independent positions on many subjects, which benefits him with independent voters. So let us see what happens in Florida.
Goodness, What Is The World Coming To? The Saudis have allow women to stay in hotels or guest houses with the obligatory male guardian. Till now they are not permitted to drive, travel abroad, and a whole bunch of other things without a male guardian.
Of course, the Saudis being their usual loveable selves have said the hosteller must inform the police of the woman's particulars.
On the sort of plus side, the lawyer who defended the teenager raped by seven men and subsequently sentenced to 200 lashes for being in a car with a man not her guardian has had his license restored by the Saudis.
It's good that world pressure does work on the Saudis. The problem is that for every one case which comes to the attention of the world there are a thousand others which do not.
The US is always after everyone's rear end on the matter of human rights. Here we have one of the biggest violators of human rights, and a violently anti-Christian country as well, and the US goes around begging to be allowed the royal favor of planting large smoochies on their tushies. And now the US is begging all the more because American corporations need large doses of additional capital to make up for their criminal losses on sub-prime mortgages.
We are reminded of the Mel Brooks film - was it "Blazing Saddles"? - where supplicant Brooks grabs a man's leg and is being dragged along in the dust as the man continues walking, and Brooks's is loudly shouting "Have some dignity!".
Come on people, would it have been such a bad thing if Saddam had whacked the Saudis? At least the tyrant was secular till he pretended to get religion as a result of the pressure he was coming under thanks to the UN embargoes.

0230 January 21, 2008

UK Overtakes US In Per Capita GDP says Business Week in its January 28, 2008 issue. Using round figures, UK has $46,000/per capita vs US's $45,000. This is the first time since 1855 that UK is ahead.
Business Week clarifies that most of the increase has come from the steady gain of sterling against the dollar, and that in terms of purchasing power per capita income the US is still ahead.
Nasurallah May No Longer Be Hezbollah Leader says Jerusalem Post, quoting a report from a London-based Arabic newspaper. The report was denied by Hezbollah but not by Teheran, says the Israeli newspaper.
Afghan Air Force Formally Stands Up Associated Press reports. Its first base is in a military area of Kabul International Air Port. It has 6 Mi-35 gunships, 6 Mi-17s, and 4 AN-32s. Ten more Mil-17s will be delivered in the spring.
Earlier AAF had just 4 working helicopters from a total of 10 Mi-17/24, plus six transport aircraft, most of which were not operational.
A total of 61 helicopters/aircraft is planned for 2011.
Though the Afghan president says F-16s will be delivered, a US advisor says no fighters are included in the current plan.
NATO Builds Forts in Helmand Province says London Times. This is part of the new clear and hold strategy. An excellent article on one such fort is at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3221602.ece
Israel Stops Fuel To Gaza We are not going to comment on this, except to reiterate our stated position. Israel is wrong to impose collective punishment on Gaza civilians. Israel is violating Fourth Geneva, regardless of its attempt to be clever with words. Hamas etc. are wrong to randomly fire rockets at Israel. Hamas is also violating Fourth Geneva with its targeting of civilians. And Israel is wrong in thinking it is justified in taking hundreds of Palestinian lives in exchange for the handful of Israelis that have been killed by rockets.
We also reiterate that there is no solution to this problem. Israel lacks the courage to expel the Palestinians and take the inevitable consequences. Short of that Israel can punish Gaza all it wants, Hamas will not stop. And the notion that Hamas can win against Israel is simply laughable.
Incidentally, we are reminded how Debka.com last year was claiming Iranian advisors and anti-tank missiles were transforming Hamas and other Palestine terror groups into formidable fighting forces. So far Hamas etc. have had very little success at fighting the Israelis, who continue killing Palestine militia with almost no casualties to themselves. If this is the effect of Iranian training/weapons, no one need worry. Of course, given Hezbollah's astonishing performance against the Israeli Army in 2006 it's simpler to conclude that Iran is not involved in Gaza in any significant way.

0230 January 20, 2008

Russia Says It Can Use N-Weapons For Preemptive Attacks Nice going Moscow. Hopefully the West will take Russia a bit more seriously as a threat.
Indians Maintain Calm Over Sarkozy's Visit There has been a bit of a flap over what protocols apply if Mr. Sarkozy turns up with his girlfriend on his state visit next week. He will be chief guest at the annual Republic Day parade, which is a high-visibility event and there will be state dinners and so on. Apparently the Indians have decided that they will treat girlfriend whichever way the French Embassy says they want her treated. Very sensible, and a very Indian way of handling a thorny issue.
Iraqis Manage On Their Own We've said a few times that if the US simply leaves Iraq, the Iraqis will manage their internal security perfectly well.
Evidence to support our thesis comes from battles with a Sunni sect - the Soldiers of Heaven - which tried to attack Shias on their holy day in Southern Iraq. Iraqi security forces in the south are on their own, and they quickly put down the attackers. AFP indicates about 60 militia were killed and about twice as many arrested, whereas the Iraqis lost at least 12 men.
Had this happened in a US sector, there is no chance the Iraqis would have succeeded. They would have been standing around waiting for the US to take the initiative, give the orders, and organize the fighting, resenting the Americans every meter of the way, and performing badly as a way of getting back at their masters.
We wonder if those who use the threat of violence in Iraq should the US withdraw as an excuse to stay on understand how debilitating is the US way of doing things. We again remind readers of Lawrence of Arabia's famous saying: it's better to let the native do things, however imperfectly, than to try and train them to your standards.
After all, Iraq had a functioning military and an efficient internal security machine before the US smashed everything to bits. It's not like the Iraqis don't know what to do. But with the US laying down the law down to the organization of Iraqi Army platoons, and trying to build the kind of army/security forces that make sense to America, the US has crippled the Iraqis.
This failure, which is a training failure, will one day be seen as the biggest of all mistakes the US made in Iraq.
Meanwhile, Al-Sadr Says He May Not Extend Truce Isn't it interesting this rat has popped out of his hidey hole at the exact same time as the US is saying it expects to withdraw all the Surge troops by end summer?
Al-Sadr's reason for considering and end to the truce is positively hilarious. A spokesperson says that the Iraqi government has still not purged its security forces of criminal elements. Hello. The biggest criminal element in the Iraqi setup is Al-Sadr and his forces.

0230 GMT January 19, 2008

CIA Director Says Al Qaeda, Local Ally Killed Mrs. Bhutto At the same time, another source told the Washington Post that there was no definite evidence to either confirm or to exonerate Al Qaeda and its local ally Baitullah Mesud. Mr. Mesud is the person fighting the Pakistan government in South Waziristan.
Meanwhile, Jang of Pakistan says Scotland Yard has formally complained to the Pakistan president that Pakistani agencies gave the investigative team no assistance.
For some peculiar reason, Mrs. Bhutto's political party says the CIA statement proves the need for a UN probe. We don't see the connection: the party has till now rejected Pakistan government's assertion that AQ/Mesud were responsible. The party wanted a UN probe because it did not believe the government. So now that both Scotland Yard and the CIA say AQ/Mesud were responsible, it seems to us the justification for an independent UN probe has lessened.
The UN is unlikely to accept the party's request as it acts only on requests from governments.
Pakistan Army Says 90 Militants Killed in three fights in South Waziristan. In one security forces hit back at militants who had ambushed a convoy, killing 20-30. In the second, 52 Pakistani commandos air assaulted the first fort captured by the Taliban led by Baitullah Mesud, killing 8 militants. In the third, a large number of militants were seen around the second fort captured, and attacked from the air and with artillery, killing an estimated 50-60.
The military it said it had four soldiers wounded.
So far there is no comment or contradiction from the militants.
President Musharraf Allies with Nawaz Sharif says Frontier Post of Pakistan. A national government will be formed with Nawaz Sharif and other supporters of his. Mr. Sharif was deposed by then General Musharraf who then took over Mr. Sharif's party as his civilian front.
Dawn of Karachi says Mrs. Bhutto's husband has rejected the idea; again we are baffled because no one has asked him to join. after all, it was his wife who made a behind-the-closed-door deal with President Musharraf to become prime minister and then promptly broke her word, thinking she was so popular she would sweep into office and sweep the President out of office.
So we don't see what's wrong with another politician making a similar deal.
Taliban Attacks Intended To Scuttle Frontier Peace Deals says the Pakistan bureau chief of Asia Times Online. His argument is a bit complicated, but basically he says the attacks are to show the Pakistan government it cannot make deals with anyone without AQ/Taliban approval. We cannot vouch for the accuracy of the argument, but it is the first explanation we've heard for the sudden rise in fighting in the Frontier region.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JA18Df02.html
Israel Missile Test The missile launched last Thursday is not identified, but Haartez of Israel says it is a new "dual-stage" missile. If this is correct, it cannot be the Jericho III which has 3-stages.
There may be confusion because it is said to be a ballistic missile. But read the following quote from The Australian: " "There was an important test, which was carried out successfully, of a ballistic missile," Israeli army radio said, without providing further details. The test was "part of a future multi-layered defense system designed to counter various aerial threats against the Jewish state," the YNet website said. This suggests it was a new ABM.
If so, we don't see why Iran reacted with its usual cacophony of wild threats - unless Teheran thinks Israel's efforts to defend itself are illegitimate, as is the case with Russia's unceasing attacks on the proposed US ABM deployment to Central Europe. And if this is so, Teheran is not being logical because everyone is allowed to defend themselves.