US Reinforcements to the Korea Theatre 2003
v.1.0 March 16, 2003
At this time, quite clearly the US has North Korea on the back burner. Nonetheless, some quiet reinforcing moves are underway. How much of this movement and some others that are likely to take place is a response to increase domestic pressure on the President to do something about North Korea, and how much of it is a genuine preparation for a contingency, is hard to say.
It's important to appreciate that the dire consequences predicted if the US preemptively attacks North Korea's nuclear program are not borne out by military reality. The popular press speaks of NKPA 7-11,000 guns capable of causing a million civilian casualties in Seoul alone, and massive use of chemical weapons.
In the event North Korea crosses the DMZ, the US has reserved to itself the right to use nuclear weapons against the invading force. We do not know if nuclear weapons have been redeployed to South Korea or other bases as a contingency. We do know the invasion will be stopped cold.
We doubt nuclear weapons will be needed. Some proportion of the NKPA's arsenal can indeed reach the outskirts of Seoul. These guns will be attacked within minutes of opening fire. If North Korea really thinks its troops can survive the maelstrom of fire US air power will lay down regardless of the weather, then of course we can say nothing, because then its generals must be assumed to be beyond reason.
From Globalsecurity.com's collation of news items, we learn that the following reinforcements have, or are, being made for the Korea Theatre, many ostensibly on account of joint US-ROK exercises:
No 8th Army personnel are permitted to separate from the service vide an order in February 2003.
The 1st Cavalry Division is now on alert, but till its possible deployment destination is clear, we will refrain from speculating where it is headed.