0300 GMT January 31, 2005

• IRAQ VOTE The Iraq Government says 72% of eligible persons voted in the election. Even if this is an inflated figure, given that many Sunnis could not vote thanks to terrorist intimidation, this is a huge turnout.

• With this vote, 1100 years of Sunni rule come to an end. The Turkish Caliphate put Sunnis in charge of this overwhelmingly Shia region for a reason. As a minority, the Sunnis would have no reason to think of the people as human beings. Better, the Sunnis knew if they did not savagely repress the majority, their power, status, money and their very lives would be taken away from them. They did rather a good job.

• Orbat.com could simply continue with reporting the news. If we wanted to pontificate, we could note that yesterday the face of the entire Muslim world changed. It has been easy for the Muslims to ignore Afghanistan because it remote, poor, and sparsely inhabited. Muslims cannot ignore Iraq.

• But today is a special day for us, and finally we get to conclusively say: We believed in America and we believed in America's desire and ability to spread democracy. We believed in the people of Iraq, and that given a chance, they would embrace democracy with open arms. Since March 2003, we've had to endure the slings and barbs of our ideological opponents. But today we can say to our ideological opponents: we were right and you were wrong. Since, as mature adults we cannot dance around you chanting neener neener neerer razz razz razz boo boo boo, we will do it metaphorically by what for us is a long commentary. For once, the other news can wait till later in the day, and we promise we will carry an update at around 1500 GMT.

• MEDIA AND PUNDITS TAKE YET ANOTHER HIT When we hammer the media, we also should have made clear that the so-called Pundits, or the Talking Heads, or the Chatterati, are equally guilty of deliberately misreporting Iraq. The media - and the Pundits - want responsibility for matters like Abu Gharib. Fair enough. But only if they now accept responsibility for their sheer stupidity in insisting the elections were at least going to be seriously flawed, if not actually fail.

• Stupidity we can forgive. Arrogant stupidity we cannot forgive. Orbat.com demands that any media person or pundit that wrote/chattered about failure in Iraq more than 70% of the time be made to resign.

• This is not a matter where I have my opinion and you have yours, and I was wrong. This is about willful distortion of the reality. Thousands of people have been telling the true story of where Iraq was going. But because they were shut out of the mainstream media, and had to use alternative sources, mainly the Internet, they seldom were heard by the public. If any of the High Negativities of the Media/Pundits had bothered to spend time in Iraq talking to randomly selected locals instead of looking for facts to support their inane presuppositions, then yes, we could say they had a legitimate opinion. Instead, they pushed on America and the world not honest opinion, but propaganda.

• SO TELL US AGAIN HOW THE MUSLIMS ARE NOT READY FOR DEMOCRACY... Had the media and pundits bothered to read western political philosophy in school and college, and to study democracies around they world, they would have learned something so obvious that we at Orbat.com at least cannot understand how anyone with or without education can miss the truth: It is humankind's desire to be free. Wanting freedom has nothing to do with your income level, your education, your race, your religion or your class. You had only to look at India, where even today half the people are illiterate, and half are poor even by the standards of a nation with $500/year per capita, to see that any people(s) not just want democracy, they can handle it with maturity and aplomb. Look at Africa, where within 30 years democracy has become a norm. Mostly, look at Afghanistan, a country that lives by a social code obsolete centuries ago, that is primitive, poor, illiterate, with no experience of democracy. Afghan men may not want their women to walk with uncovered faces outside the home, but they quite calmly accepted their women had a right to vote just as if it was the most natural thing in the world.

• Iraq has held its first meaningfully free election. It was fair - 1000 observers from all over the world have attested to that. It was held despite the threats by insurgents and terrorists. Very little is working in Iraq today, but nonetheless the world community pitched into work alongside Iraqis and by some miracle, conjured up a fair and free election.

• So now can we stop insulting Muslims by pretending they are ignorant little savages who can never understand this great, this grand, this abstruse thing called democracy. Shame on those who took this line.

• AND TELL US AGAIN  HOW DEMOCRACY CANNOT BE IMPOSED... Every person who said America cannot impose its democratic ideals on others, that the impetus has to come from within should now hang their heads in shame. That the world elite said this is to be expected. That so many of the American elite said it is stupid.

• Where did true democracy start? In the United States. Yes, there were limitations because women and African Americans did not have the right to vote till much after the foundation of this Republic. But just the concept that all men, regardless of income, had the right to vote was a revolutionary one.

• The American revolution spread immediately to Old Europe, and one by one the old monarchies and tyrannies came tumbling down. America rather successfully imposed democracy on Japan; it cleaned up Germany's act so that Germans could again have a democracy. America brought democracy to South Korea and Taiwan, and inspired the entire post-colonial world to seek freedom. It is America and America alone that pushed Latin America into true democracy. America worked with Old Europe to democratize Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the new nations on Russia's periphery.

• If today totalitarian states are considered cancers on the body of humanity, it is because the United States directly brought democracy to most of the world - and buddy, don't you forget it.

• IRAN LEADERSHIP GOES PYSCHO The Iranian government belatedly says that the elections in Iraq are a Good Thing, but warns the Americans may not accept the result. They may stage a coup, or do other nasty things to sabotage the new Iraqi democracy.

• Okay children, lets confess to teacher who hasn't taken their medication today. Teacher is not going to point fingers, he is going to let the conscience of the children guide them.

• Uh Oh. Somebody is not putting up their hand. Well, Teacher is not going to point fingers. He is going to wait till that somebody decides to do the right thing.

• NOT! Teacher is going to point his finger squarely at Iran's leadership. If it was irrelevant to the country before, it is positively not  needed now.

• Oh great wise men of Iran! Tell us what you did to bring democracy to Iraq? Did you send your young  to bleed and die for the Iraqi right to vote? Did you say from the start that you would accept any government the Iraqis chose, even if it told America to get out, causing many important US objectives to fail? Far from doing anything, by feeding various Iraqi insurgencies, you actively sought to sabotage Iraqi democracy.

• And now the best you can come up with is that America may itself sabotage the democracy it has labored so hard to create?

• Unasked for advice for the Iran leadership. [1] Triple your dose of Prozac etc. [2] Start looking for other jobs. Retrain yourself. Be prepared. Soon the people of Iran will have no more need for you than a fish has for a bicycle.

0400 GMT January 30, 2005

• US TERRORIST REWARDS An article in US News & World Report says that the US has had good success with big rewards for information leading to the arrest of wanted terrorists, but has not made headway with the 3 top people: Osama, his second-in-command, and the Jordanian terrorist Zarqawi [see below]. In the case of the first two they are hiding with friends who wouldn't turn them in for money [see Saddam's sons, below]. An American official says that$25 million is so huge a sum it a poor Afghan farmer wouldn't be able to relate to it. In any case, Osama is telling people to die for him and they will have eternal life with the 70 virgins, and "we can't offer virgins, but we can offer 70 goats". Oh my. Even your editor could not have come up with something that crude, and he is famous for his ability to be first in the race to the bottom.

• More seriously, this 70 virgins thing will simply not leave your editor's mind. We've asked before do female martyrs get 70 virgins too, or is this just another male chauvinistic thing? Lately we've taking to pondering a vital question. What is the same 70 virgins are being promised to every martyr? Mainly your editor broods about the patent unfairness of this deal. He leads a sober life, and yet he cannot get a date with even an escaped inmate of a loony bin, and here are these people, blowing up women and children and innocent civilians, and they get 70 virgins? Where's the fairness in that?

• ZARQAWI True the US hasn't been able to get Osama and his lieutenant into its sights, but these men are in deep hiding. Vague tapes that surface from time to time are the only "evidence" they are alive. Zarqawi has been running from town to town in Iraq ["If it's Monday, it must be time to bomb Mosul", that sort of thing]. As several readers have pointed to us, Zarqawi's network is getting rolled up, and each catch regrets his bad life and is simply dying to help the Iraq government get the next person in the chain, out of sheer civic mindedness amd remorse. [A car battery and two wires would make anyone feel remorseful.] Most recently, 3 top Zarqawi people have been taken, and money has to play a big part. Its just a matter of time.

• When the Iraqis take over their own country, they will undoubtedly use any means necessary to stabilize the country, and we suspect that progress against terrorists will speed up.

• USN&WR says that the most famous case where rewards work is that of Saddam's sons. 18 days after the rewards were posted, the sons were located, and 24 hours after that, they were dead. Fast work.

• DAFUR BBC quotes a senior UN official as saying Sudan government militia have attacked 40 villages in their latest offensive against Dafur rebels. Last Wednesday, 100 people were killed in a village by government air attack.

• A UN commission is expected to report this week on if genocide has been committed in Dafur.

• COTE D'IVORIE Meanwhile, Washington Post says that UN investigators have gathered evidence against 95 people on both sides of the Ivory Coast civil war who are accused of war crimes. Momentum is growing for an international court to try these people.

• Included in the list is the President's lady, who is accused of heading a hit-squad to murder her husband's political opponents. Talk about supporting your husband's career. Madam President has denied the allegations.

• BALUCHISTAN The daily Jang of Pakistan reports statements issued by state and federal officials on the situation, but without any comment of its own: the press is under interdict over the situation's news.

• The government says no military operation is planned - contrary to reports the operation has begin [See below]. The government says over 670 rockets were fired at the Sui gas field and installations over a 5 day period in January. The Bugti tribe says it is not involved in the attacks, and the trouble began with the assault on the lady doctor.

• The Government says the main accused, an army captain, has voluntarily presented himself for a DNA test.

• Pardon us while we snicker. The whole trouble began when the army refused to let local police interrogate the accused, leave alone arrest them. If the federal government has taken over the evidence and thrown the Baluch police off the case - and we believe that has happened [not confirmed] - then there is no risk in having the good captain "voluntarily" present himself for DNA testing. No match will be found, but that will not solve the problem or negate the statements of the victim and others.

0600 GMT January 29, 2005

• PAKISTAN BEGINS BALUCHISTAN OPERATION South Asia Tribune.com sent a correspondent to Baluchistan. The correspondent says that the Pakistan Army has begun operations against the Bugati tribe in the area. People are being arrested, checkpoints have been set up, there is hardly any traffic on the roads because movement is restricted by the Army. The situation is so bad that essential commodities are not available, though the correspondent says, the Government is arranging convoys to bring in supplies for the people. Villages have been evacuated by tribesmen as they wait for the Pakistan army's next move. There is an air of hopelessness and resignation among the Bugati and their allied tribes, but they cannot, and will not, back down over the assault on the lady doctor, even if it means war.

• Meanwhile, SAT says that far from compromising on the issue of the lady doctor, by simply letting the law take its course, the Pakistan Army has beaten and intimidated men of the Baluchistan police to the extent many have left their posts and run away to the relative safety of Sindh province.

• ORBAT.COM COMMENT We have no reason at all to disbelieve the report, even if SAT is dead against President Musharraf in a personal way. The journalists who run the magazine and write for it are people with credentials, not rabble rousers.

• At the same time we found one thing odd about a second article. There is an accompanying picture of a tank, which to our inexperienced photo-interpretation eyes looks like a T-55, with the caption "A Pakistan Army tank prepares for an operation at Sui in Balochistan". Now, to begin with the tank looks like its been towed from a junk yard. The crew and three men standing alongside the tank  look cold and pathetically unlike soldiers; rather, they look like they are underpaid police from a Peter Seller's movie banana republic. There is no sign of accompanying vehicles, the tank seems to be alone in the scrub desert. There seems to be no urgency. We'd like to know about the circumstances of this picture. The Indian cavalry wouldn't be caught dead with their equipment and troops looking so useless, and neither would the Pakistan cavalry.

• ABU MAZAN CRACKS DOWN ON DISPLAY OF ARMS After deploying 2000 security personnel to ensure no rockets are launched at Israel, a move that has won the approval of no less than the hardliner Prime Minister Sharon, the newly elected leader of Palestine has forbidden the carriage of arms in public by persons other than the security forces.

• Meanwhile, Hamas has won big in local elections in Gaza.

• For readers who may not be familiar with the region, Hamas, though without doubt a terrorist group, enjoys wide support in Palestine because of its continued efforts of the years to help ordinary people when the government wont help - which under Mr. Arafat was true 99% of the time. Like Hezbollah, Hamas provides food, schools, clinics for the people, resolves disputes, provides protection, and basically performs the functions the government should be providing. In return, the people let Hamas operate from amongst their midst and help when they can.

• BOONDOCKS We would assume most non-American readers are unfamiliar with a very controversial and very funny comic strip called Boondocks, written by a wholly irreverent African-American youngster who started the strip while at the University of Maryland. It is, of course, entirely about African-Americans, and pokes remorselessly at the community and its failings. No one seems to get particularly upset about that, but once in a while it has material on stereotypical ideas African Americans have about whites, and in a hugely entertaining way, whites have about African Americans. Then there are cries of "reverse racism" from outraged whites.

• Yesterday Boondocks had two of its main protagonists watching a TV interview of an Iraqi policeman. The interviewer asks what motivated the man to join the police. He says: I always wanted to die, but flunked suicide bomber school, and this was the next best thing. Of course, without the drawings this is not a tenth as funny, but it shows a wonderful characteristic of Americans. This is their unlimited ability to make the most scathing fun of themselves.

0400 GMT January 28, 2005

• IRAN NUCLEAR One reason geostrategy is seldom a dull topic is because usually right when one figures one has a situation understood, something happens that makes one realize on has understood little. So it is with Iran's N-program.

• We'd mentioned yesterday the Euro3 had unexpectedly become very tough in its negotiations with Iran. That was a big surprise. Yesterday Iran rejected Euro3's demand for completely ending its uranium enrichment program. This rejected is to be expected as a bargaining tactic, so that's no surprise.

• Then US Vice-President Cheney tells a TV interviewer that the US plans to use diplomacy to handle problems with Iran, whereas all these months Washington has deliberately been projecting of itself as a frothing, fighting mad, high enraged bull straining to break out of his pen and start laying about to right and left.

• Then a conservative syndicated columnist in the US, who has good sources, says that the US does NOT have secret teams inside Iran. It does not need to put its own men at risk because there are plenty of Iranians, especially Kurds, willing to spy for America. Further, says the columnist, the US has concluded that in the last 6 months the mullah regime has steadily gained support and that regime change will not be welcomed by the locals. This is a surprise because it is diametrically opposite to what the United States has been saying so far, i.e., that the people of Iran are just waiting for US liberation.

• ONE BAD-GUY DOWN, 2 TO GO Readers may recall we sometimes rant against the unholy trinity of Wolfowitz, Pearle, and Feith, as being the guilty parties for the Iraq fiasco, and the repeated rumors one hears in Washington about their loyalties: are they working for the US's best interests or their own?

• Today we learn Mr. Douglas Feith is to resign, saying he wants to spend more time with his 4 children and he has no other plans at the present.

• COMMENTARY ON MR. FEITH This is how they lie in Washington: he has no other plans at present, except we'll take bets he's got a fat job lined up with a US defense contractor or affiliate. Word of advice to our gambler friends: don't bet against us, we'd hate to see you lose money.

• Now, we thought we were pretty over-the-top in our dislike for these gentlemen, but apparently we speak very gently about them. We learn General Tommy Franks, US military supremo for Gulf II, has in his memoirs called Mr, Feith the stupidest man alive on the face of the earth.  Mr. Feith's response? There is bound to be disagreement on policy matters.

• So the stupidest man on the face of the earth, gets to "retire" after mucking up his own country vis-a-vis Iran, totally messing up the liberation of the Muslim world, and prepares to turn the favors he has done to people into big money, and his lame explanation is "people disagree?"

• Why is this man not under arrest, being prepared for trial for deliberate incompetence with the death penalty waiting if he is found guilty? Its okay for American soldiers to die and be maimed every day, and its okay for US policy to be dealt huge, nearly fatal blows, and its okay to endanger the security of the country that pays him by his foolishness, and he gets off to play with his kids and prepares to cash in his chips earned while he should have been focusing on his job? What manner of mockery is this? Americans increasingly don't trust their government, and that people like Mr. Feith can do what he has done and then walk away counting the big bucks he's going to make, is one major reason Americans are absolutely right not to trust their government.

• The media and most of the world and many Americans have been screaming about the need to hold accountable for one dumb, sadistic prison guard who basically was playing with his prisoners - in terms of what happens to people who get caught for fighting against their country, but there is no accountability for Mr. Feith? Come on, America. Your leaders, and your elite, which includes the same media beating up on this prison guard,  are taking you for another ride. Are you going to let the government and Mr. Feith get away with it?

0330 GMT January 27, 2005

• EURO3 TOUGHENS IRAN N-WEAPONS STANCE AFP says that the EURO3 has toughened its stance on Iran's N-programs and is now asking for verifiable  dismantling not just of N-weapon programs, but also of anything that could be part of a weapons program. EURO3 have said that it cannot accept even the Iranian demand to be allowed to keep 20 centrifuges for research.

• We freely admit we are surprised at this show of backbone by the EURO3. To us it seemed that the group had gone so wobbly at the thought of confronting Iran that it was prepared to mere accept face-saving gestures from Iran so it could pretend it had cracked down on that country.

• IRAN REJECTS MOSSAD CLAIM ON N-WEAPONS BBC says Iran has rejected Mossad's claim that the former could have nuclear weapons within 3 years.

• For once we agree with the Iranians, but for different reasons. The Iranians say they have an entirely peaceful N-program; a hilarious claim, as Iran entire civil N-program is designed as a cover for its military program. we agree with the Iranians on the time frame because they cannot build a bomb in 3 years.

• AFGHANISTAN ASKS PAKISTAN FOR RETURN OF DEFECTOR AIRCRAFT BBC says Afghanistan has asked Pakistan to return 26 military aircraft flown to the latter country by defector Afghan pilots. Pakistan is considering the request. It also notes that years of simply standing at an airfield without care has reduced the aircraft to not-airworthy status.

• We cannot figure out the reason for Afghanistan's request, but whatever it it is, it has to be political and not military. There are huge stocks of Soviet/Pact equipment available - mostly not in good shape, but some of it has to be usable.

• US THINK TANK SAYS ARMY MATERIAL IN BAD SHAPE The Lexington Institute, a somewhat right of center think tank, says that far from the US Army undertaking a revolution in military affairs, it is accumulating a museum of military affairs. Most of the armor and helicopters being used in Iraq were built in the 1980s, and the wear-and-tear on equipment is turning it into junk. A specific example cited is the Bradley Fighting Vehicles, which are being run 4000 miles a year, five times the program mileage.

• We note that similar concerns have been expressed repeatedly by many sources. The desert is about the harshest environment for machines, because of the sand. No equipment can be expected to keep performing for years in a combat situation when it is designed for short - by US standards - wars with heavy material attrition. We don't know what today's planning figures are, but seem to recall that in the 1980s the US Army expected a 2% daily attrition rate for tanks in a Central European war. That means the 58 tanks in a battalion of that time would be finished in 50 days of war - assuming continual replenishment, of course. So then it did not matter if a Bradley programmed for 800 miles a year ran several times that in two months, because statistically the Bradley would be destroyed long before it ran down as a machine.

• The Soviets, of course, were masters of the game. Their doctrine said a conventional war would go nuclear in 3 to 10 days. Their equipment was designed to last that period, and they did not buy the spares needed for a war longer than that. So, they saved on spares, on the equipment itself because it was built for minimum functioning, and on maintenance troops. This is one reason among many they were able to field such huge quantities of equipment.

• Now, where did the Soviets learn about the expendability of weapons? This may surprise some, but they learned it from the Americans. The Germans in World War II were the masters of quality and they had many fewer heavy weapons than the US. The US, however, was prepared to lose 5-10 Shermans to kill one Tiger. These days the US expects one M-1 to kill 5-10 enemy tanks, exactly the other way around. Its interesting how things change.

0230 GMT January 26, 2005

• IRAN N-TALKS STALLED [1115 GMT] Associated Press, quoting a document it says is confidential, reports that nuclear talks between Tehran and the EU are stalled because the former refuses to give up its uranium enrichment program. Surprisingly, Teheran accepts that the uranium enrichment program makes no economic sense, and even accepts that as an oil rich country civil nuclear power makes no sense.

• Earlier, Iran had been saying it needs the uranium enrichment program to enrich uranium to low levels for its power reactors. The economics of the program, however, become irrelevant if the fuel is to be instead used for a plutonium production reactor, and just about the sole use for large quantities of plutonium is N-weapons.

• VENEZUELA: SOMETHING'S BREWING AND ITS NOT COFFEE Len Smith, an AGTW reader and commodities researcher, wonders what's going on in Venezuela. The radical - and anti-US - president has been creating problems for American companies while simultaneously discussing "diversifying" his nation's oil exports to include PRC as a new destination.

• Mr. Smith notes that shipping crude from Venezuela to US Gulf ports is much cheaper than shipping it to China, and oil to China will play havoc with tanker rates, pushing them - and the price of crude - higher.

• Mr. Smith says he is on the job and will let us know the results of research he has undertaken for us.

• We did a quick Google on tanker rates; most of the data is understandably contained in for-subscription sources, but we did find an article dating back to 2000-01 which showed fluctuations in tanker rates within a period of 5 quarters between $10 and $50/ton. Using the upper figure, that equates to $7/barrel right there.

• Now, in almost every business source we skim through, hints keep emerging of a potential show-down between the US and PRC over oil supplies. For example, PRC is undercutting US/EU efforts to contain Iraq's N-program by signing massive deals with Teheran, reducing Western leverage as far as oil purchases are concerned. We'll leave it Mr. Smith to discuss the matter, in the meantime we'll make on observation.

• Is the United States, and indeed the world, ready for PLAN warships sailing the Gulf-Singapore sea lanes, and more interestingly, entering the East Pacific to protect Chinese oil lanes? US policy not to permit any threat to its naval Pacific in the East Pacific was a direct cause of World War II; after the war the US pushed its security frontier out west. The US tolerated the Soviet Pacific fleet because basically it sailed around in circles off Siberia. Is the US going to tolerate a navy which is first seeking predominance in the west Pacific, and will then need to protect its maritime traffic in the East Pacific?

• If we may, a personal peeve. People keep saying "Oh, China will not be able to rival the US Navy for at least 20 or more years". Well, you'll be surprised at how fast 20 years go by. Its already 40 years since the US went to war in Indochina, and 30 since it withdrew from Vietnam. Its 60 years since the fall of Japan, and 25 since the Teheran hostage crisis. Twenty years have already passed from the time Cold War II peaked, and its almost 15 since Gulf I. To use distance in time as an excuse not to worry about a known growing threat is not, in our opinion a good idea.

• IRAQ TROOP LEVELS: IS THE US BLUFFING Till a couple of weeks ago, the US was talking about reducing troop levels, not just because of casualties, but because the Iraqis have to take over their own security. We, for one, don't do they will do a perfectly efficient and ruthless job. The US is talking of putting advisors with Iraqi units because, apparently, when advisors are present, Iraqi units perform well. The Iraqi Prime Minister has said on occasion he wants to recall the disbanded Iraq Army; indeed, the process has begun with the recall of two commando battalions. Once he gets the Army back in shape, the US is simply not going to be needed.

• So why of a sudden is the US saying it will maintain high troops levels for years? We believe its partly to offset earlier talk about withdrawal which would have only given insurgents hope. But, we also believe, the US is saying this so that no one gets the idea that "we just have to kill 1000 Americans and they will cut and run." The world pretty much accepts that Somalia was an aberration, and there is no question of the US abandoning its positions because 20 men are killed. Now the US has to convince people its not leaving no matter what the cost.

• We know this attitude will seem like utter stupidity to many Americans, particularly those who oppose the war to begin with. The diplo-military game, however, is one where you must not just be strong, you must be perceived as being strong. We don't think its coincidence that the Iranians mocked Mr. Jimmy Carter as he tried to get back the hostages, but the minute Mr. Reagan won the election, the Iranians could not get rid of the hostages quickly enough. We also do not think its a coincidence that the fall of the Soviet empire came during Mr. Reagan's time. One reason was he acted crazy to unnerve the opponent, and he succeeded. Another was he made sure no one could doubt he was going to keep building US military strength till the other side gave up. A third was Star Wars: he instilled in the Soviets the concern that their trump card, their nuclear arsenal, would be trumped.

• If our line of reasoning is correct, the US has changed its tune on withdrawals not because withdrawals are not going to take place - they are. Its because the US wants to make clear to Syria and Iran, among others, that 1000 dead is meaningless regardless of what the anti-war people say and of the way the US media portrays the war.

• Realistically, for a nation the size of the United States, even 10,000 dead has no significance. We think its admirable the US military genuinely cares about the life of every soldier. But too much has been made of it, and if you enter battle giving the opponent the impression you will bug out if losses get too great, you've lost already. No point in fighting in the first place.

• The thing to do is to minimize casualties and continue fighting for as long as necessary. We believe the US is following just that course.

1300 GMT January 25, 2005

• TOP ZARQAWI LIEUTENANT CAPTURED Agencies say that Zarqawi's top lieutenant was captured January 15. Iraqi officials say he admits to building 75% of the car bombs used in Iraq.

• We're a bit confused because some stories say two Zarqawi men have been arrested. The gentleman above goes by two names and we wonder if that's the source of confusion.

• HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH SAYS IRAQI TORTURE ROUTINE HRW says torture of Iraqi prisoners is routine, and says that while insurgents target Iraq security forces, this is no excuse.

• Naturally, we wonder if the increasing effectiveness of Iraqi security forces has something to do with the use of torture. We doubt it is because the security forces are employing refined western police investigation methods.

• A number of interrogation experts have said torture does not work, and that it debases the torturer as well as the victim. We agree with the second part of the proposition but not the first. Your editor lived in India as an adult for 20 years: torture by police and security forces is routine; unfortunately, it works so well that police/security forces openly defend it as an effective interrogation technique.

• Undoubtedly, many victims are "innocent" in the sense they may have only casual and peripheral information to provide. A common example is persons who have not participated in a criminal or insurgent event, but know something that they did not go to the security forces with.

• As to the point repeatedly raised by torture-opponents, that under torture a person will say anything, we agree. Any interrogation expert knows that, and takes it into account. This is a non-issue.

• The moral issue is the real issue, and opponents of torture should focus on that and not on efficiency.

• WHITE HOUSE TO REQUEST $80-BILLION WAR SUPPLEMENTAL US media says the US Government is to request at least $80-billion in supplemental war funds, which would bring to about $280-billion sanctioned for Afghanistan and Iraq since late 2001.

• Government budget experts say the war on terror could cost between $400-$1,400 billion over the next 10 years, depending on intensity of operations. The upper figure equals perhaps 1% of US GNP over 10 years at a time normal defense spending is about 60% less in GNP terms than Vietnam.

• Whether this money is/will be well-spent is, of course, open to serious debate. Obviously the money spent for Afghanistan has produced terrific results; a lot of money has been thrown at Iraq without proportionate results. Like it or not, however, inefficiency and huge waste are inherent in the process of making war, which is not the same thing as running a corporation. The need for haste alone can increase by several fold the amount of money needed.

0300 GMT January 24, 2005

• ROBO-GI HEADS FOR IRAQ Military.com says 18 robot GIs are headed for Iraq. These are based on a US bomb-disposal robot, but carry a standard a standard Squad Automatic Weapon. The units has 4 different cameras, and is steered remotely for a mission of up to 4 hours. Some claim the robot GI is a more accurate shooter than real GIs because the platform is electronically stabilized.

• Each unit costs $200,000. It occurs to us that the late 1960s price of a new M-60 tank was $200,000.

• For the benefit of younger readers: the term GI comes from US Army World War II lingo, short for General Issue. There are many subtle ironies in calling the man and not just his equipment "General Issue".

• MOSUL We learn - well after everyone else, as usual, that the US, some months ago, effectively abandoned Mosul because of mounting casualties as Baath insurgents decided to make the city their base. We also learn, thanks to Mike Thompson, that the Mosul police was mainly recruited from Fallujah insurgents. We further learn that the US has refused to recruit Kurd troops for fear of fanning ethnic warfare.

• IMPERIALISM 101 Okay, lets go through this once again, speaking slowly and in one syllable words for the benefit of the Pentagon. Imperialism can become an expensive business if not done right. For effective imperialism, you do not use the straight "up and at them" down the middle approach which the US Army is so good at it. That approach works terrifically well against massed tank forces. For imperialism, you have to use the judo approach: use the opponent's strength against himself.

• This means getting the locals to fight the locals. It is a highly effective and time-tested method' prime example being the British world empire.

• The US is worried about unleashing ethnic warfare. Earth to Pentagon: the warfare in Iraq is 100% ethnic already. The Sunnis are targeting the Shias and the Kurds. They are committing horrible atrocities. It is immoral on many levels to refuse to let the Kurds fight the Sunnis. One level is that by observing false political correctness, the US is getting its own soldiers killed, and it is stopping the Kurds from taking revenge.

• In Afghanistan, the CIA and SF troops showed zero political correctness. They backed the minorities against the Pushtoon majority from which the Taliban came. It worked like a charm. And where's the ethnic warfare in Afghanistan? Not to be seen.

• What is Orbat.com's interest in seeing American imperialism succeed? Our interest is that Pax Americana will bring peace to the world - not the peace of the grave that Communism wanted, but a peace of freedom and respect for human rights. That's all there is to it.

• PALESTINE PEACE DEAL? AFP says that all militants groups have decided to give Abu Mazan a chance to make peace with Israel, and that despite rhetoric, a "cooling off" period where the militants have ceased fire to see what the Israeli reaction will be, is already in force.

0200 GMT January 23, 2005

• US TO REDUCE MILITARY DEPLOYMENT FOR TSUNAMI RELIEF The US says it will quickly start reducing troops/aircraft deployed for tsunami relief.

• Perversely, now that the US is to reduce its footprints, some of the same people who were criticizing the US say it's too early for the Americans to pull out.

• Mike Thompson sends an internet article from an officer with the Abe Lincoln battlegroup that explains why the Indonesian refusal to let the carrier conduct training flights in Indonesian waters is an issue. The carrier group must maintain its fighting edge. The tsunami diversion has messed up training for a whole month. If the carrier moves away from the coast to resume training, its helicopters, which are are already overworked, will have to fly longer routes for relief delivery and many areas will fall outside the new, limited range.

• In this story lies a lesson for the rest of the world's armed forces. The Americans win each time, seemingly with effortless ease, because they incessantly train as if war is going to break out tomorrow. They never let up, and even a month off the line is considered too long for a carrier battlegroup on deployment. This non-stop training is one way the Americans are meeting their requirements despite severely reduced force levels.

• PALESTINE SECURITY FORCES DEPLOY AGAINST MILITANTS Several hundred Palestine Authority security personnel have been deploying across the Gaza strip in the last few days, intending to reassert a visible presence to back of Prime Minister Abu Mazan's request to militant groups to cease fire with Israel.

• While Hamas and Hezbollah have rejected the call, the Martyrs Brigade, an organization related to Arafat's Fateh party, has said it is prepared to cooperate.

• Nonetheless, Abu Mazan has made it clear he will use persuasion rather than risk civil war by attacking militants head on.

• American and Israeli hardliners have taken Abu Mazan's refusal to use force to mean he is still in bed with the militants. The truth is, the PA forces are not strong enough to fight the militants, civil war will erupt, and there is a good chance Abu Mazan will be murdered. We don't think this is the outcome the Americans or Israelis want.

• Paul Danish wrote in to say our call, some days ago, for the PA to ask the EU to help fight the militants, is unrealistic. First, the EU nations do not have the moral toughness to get into a straight fight with the militants, which will certainly create blowbacks. Second, Israel has repeatedly rejected the notion of an international force patrolling the PA-Israel border as a violation of its sovereignty and a limit on its freedom of action.

• We agree with Mr. Danish. But unless the Israelis budge, and the EU puts its money where its mouth is, peace in this area is going to go nowhere. The US, with all the baggage it carries as Israel's guardian, cannot do the job. Israel cannot do the job for the Palestinians. And the PA forces don't have the capability. So where does that leave us?

• SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Christian South Sudan has expressed reservations about the predominantly Muslim nature of the proposed 10,000 troop UN peacekeeping force expected to monitor the peace agreement between the South and Khartoum. Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Pakistan, all Islamic nations, are expected to be major contributors.

• In our opinion, South Sudan should not worry. The military forces of all 3 countries are strictly professional and will not be partial to the North just because of a shared religion.

• A PLEA TO THE UN: PLEASE STOP ASTONISHING US Mike Thompson just sent us an article from Diplomad's blog (we just got this one second ago: its Mad Diplomat; gosh, we're quick on the uptake, like the UN) that leaves us begging the UN: please stop astonishing us.

• Diplomad, who is somewhere in the tsunami area, tells that on January 18, over 3 weeks from when the disaster struck, the first two UN chartered helicopters have taken to the air for relief work. The US, meanwhile, has increased flights from 30 to 80.

• We're sitting here with our mouths open: January 18th? Two helicopters? And the UN was attacking the US for going at it alone? Doesn't this show that the US, India, Singapore, and Australia were absolutely right to go at it alone and bypass the UN?

• Some years ago, your editor worked in an all-African-American environment and lived in the same type of neighborhood. One saying he heard many times, used when the speaker was undergoing immense frustration because of some absolutely pointless situation they found themselves in, was "Lord, take me now!" That is, end my suffering on earth right now. Your editor just does not know what to say in response to Diplomad's news except "Lord, take us now". End our suffering, please.

• But wait - there's worse to come. The UN has finished a report saying that the rich nations must massively increase their aid to the poor countries, almost on a crash basis, as a big time War Against Poverty. The report runs to 3000 pages. This aid must, of course, go through the UN.

• Sixty years of "UN" and "International" Development don't seem to have taught this community of international bureaucrats - which includes more than its fair share of Americans, by the way - that the only aid that works, and is cost-effective, is aid to local non-governmental groups who each work with small numbers of individual people at a time to improve the latter's lot. If you study these groups, you will see they are community based, there are no outsiders "helping", and they act to empower the locals, not to put them at the tail end of some incredibly long chain of command run by thousands of well-paid international  bureaucrats. In the UN/International scheme of things, the clients are put last. They get what's left over after the multi-layers of bureaucrats and their requirements are taken care of. In the NGO approach, the clients are put first. The end.

• By the way, its long been evident that the UN/International aid community approach only feeds corruption, exploits the clients, and destroys the self-respect of the recipient nations. The NGO approach builds self-reliance and pride.

0500 GMT January 22, 2005

[Real news update at 1500 GMT]

• MR. BUSH'S INAUGURAL SPEECH The media reports that Mr. Bush on Thursday made a short, passionate, and eloquent inauguration speech. The theme was his vision to end tyranny on earth.

• Okay, our liberal, European, and world intellectual elite friends, scoff away. But you should have figured by now the man really does mean what he says.

• Your editor has maintained for 45 years is that ending tyranny is exactly what America should be doing: after all, America is the world's first revolutionary nation, and as we've said before, its shift to the status quo during the period 1945-1975 was an aberration, created by a fear of Communist arms. Those arms were no match for American idealism - though in true Teddy Roosevelt style, the Americans backed up the idealism with heap big arms.

• It did take America 30 years to see that supporting dictators just because they supported America was a losing game. But we blame no one: in those days, national sovereignty was paramount, and the natives were supposed not to understand democracy, which was reserved for the white west. So anxious were those times that short term security was the highest priority, and to heck with the sermonizing and moralizing to America's allies about democracy.

• One of the odd things is that once America really started pushing democracy, starting with Jimmy Carter, the world intellectual elite started going crazy about American arrogance - look no further than Iraq.

• Still, ever hopeful as we are (the bad influence of our American upbringing is to blame), we honestly believe the democracies of Old Europe will be won over by America and breaches will be healed.

• So, from now on is it all white doves, multi-colored ribbons, choirs of angels etc etc, as democracy marches triumphant over the stinking corpse of tyranny?

• Well, there is a problem, alas.

• The problem is the people who work for Mr. Bush.

• They need to be sent to Siberia, or at least to Abu Gharib, or given happy pills and retired.

• America has survived and triumphed over all adversaries since 1776. But if the current set of Giant Minds gives us another Iraq, we're going to have to forget about the demise of tyranny for another 20 years.

• Today the real enemy is not without. It is within, among the closest advisors to the President.

• Are they evil people? Not really. But they suffer from hubris. They need to put out in the street. Now.

• FLASH: WASHINGTON POST DETERMINED TO KILL ORBAT EDITOR Folks, there's no doubt about it. The WashPost is trying to kill your editor. For the second time in as many weeks, WP ran a sensible article about Iraq, and this time it was by one of their heavyweight correspondents, not some local employee.

• The WP quotes a survey which says an amazing 80% of eligible Iraqis plan to vote - despite all the trouble. When is the last time 80% of Americans planned to vote.

• Now, of course our readers and ourselves knew the Iraqis are very excited about the election and are determined they aren't going to let a bunch of murderous thugs stop them. The shock is that WP, a bastion of western media, actually acknowledges what anyone returning from Iraq can tell you.

• Tomorrow your editor goes to get his heart checked: the shock of the WP being truthful and fair twice in two weeks is bit much...we hope they dont make this a triple in the coming week.

0400 GMT January 21, 2005

• PAKISTAN SECURITY FORCES MOVE AGAINST BALUCH TRIBESMEN Several Pakistan media sources say Pakistan security forces have arrested 80 Baluch tribesmen in Sui Thesil on suspicion of involvement of attacks on the gas fields. Demolition of houses of suspects is underway. Warrants have been issued for the arrest of clan leader Bugati's son and grandson, alleging they were part of the attacks. (Editor: A thesil is an administrative division of a district; the latter equates to a US county.)

• Meanwhile: from Orbat.com to Major General S. Sultan, Pakistan armed forces spokesperson. Stop, already! Every day you issue some extremely convoluted statement that would require a constitutional lawyer to decipher, seeking to depict an atmosphere of no crisis. What is the matter with your masters? People like us are getting fed up of trying to unravel your statements which end up having zero meaning and are the exact opposite of what is happening at Sui. You are severely damaging your credibility. If you continue like this, we will stop reading your statements. Why cannot you simply speak the truth? Baluchistan is part of Pakistan, and the government of Pakistan has every right to impose law and order in the region. End of matter.

• US IN MOSUL MSNBC says the US now has 12,000 troops in Mosul fighting to regain control of the city. Readers will recall the cheery situation statements from US authorities began diverging from reality around November 2004, and that this once peaceful city considered under US/Iraq control has become an increasingly dangerous place.

• UK's IRAQ SCANDAL Prepare to be bored. Pictures have been released of UK troops abusing prisoners in much the same manner as the US at Abu Gharib, but on a smaller scale.

• Apparently Iraqis had been stealing from a British Army base and the soldiers were ordered by their commander to play rough with Iraqis caught.

• Word of advice to the British Army. So now you learn your lesson. Three of your men are being court-martialed. The country is an uproar. The press is having an orgy at your expense. Bad, bad, bad boys all of you.

• Next time you see someone stealing, kindly shoot the blighter dead. For heaven's sake, do we at Orbat.com have to tell you how to do everything the right way?

• IRAQIS ANGRY WITH ABU GHARIB RINGLEADER SENTENCE The media tells us Iraqis are furious with the "light" sentence the Abu Gharib ringleader received. Ten years is nothing, say the Iraqis. He should be executed for his heinous crimes.

• Orbat.com proposes a deal, fellows. Let's have a uniform law for everyone. If the US should execute its man for abuse of prisoners, then Iraqis should also execute Iraqis who abuse prisoners. Deal? That should take at least a million Iraqis off the street, because lets me fair and start the clock at 1970, when Saddam took over. Then Orbat.com will join you in your demand for the death penalty for the Abu Gharib ringleader. If you are not prepared to execute Iraqis who have abused prisoners, don't waste our time with your pointless whining about the Americans.

• We believe the ringleader is an idiot. But we feel 10 years is harsh for what he did. Okay, he went over the top, but frankly, we don't see he did much worse than used to happen at American college fraternities and British boarding schools.

 0430 GMT January 20, 2005

• ISRAEL TALKS BUT PREPARES TO FIGHT AFP reports that Israel has resumed contacts with the Palestine Authority but is also preparing to invade the Gaza Strip once again if PA Prime Minister Abu Mazan does not satisfy Tel Aviv he is cracking down on Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both of which have rejected his call to cease attacks on Israel.

• HAARETZ SAYS AP, AFP USE TAINTED JOURNALISTS Haaretz of Israel says that AP and AFP both employ correspondents who are also on the payroll of the Palestine Authority. This is akin to CNN or the New York Times employing journalists who draw second salaries from the US Government.

• AFP apparently does not think the matter is any of Haartez's business, and told the Israeli paper's journalist as much. The AFP officer questioned by Haartez sarcastically asked if this was a police investigation, in refusing to name AFP correspondents. Hmmmm. Well no, it isn't a police investigation. Right or wrong, however, Haaretz has made a serious charge, and AFP should answer it, for the sake of its reputation. No word on how AP has reacted.

• PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT TO UP BALUCH GAS ROYALTY Jang of Pakistan reports the Pakistan government has about doubled the gas royalty it pays to the Baluch provincial government and will increase it by half next year. It is not, however, escaping the Baluch that even after 2006 the royalty will still be about 1/3rd paid to the Punjab government for its gas.

• Another fact we did not know: Baluchis say that the Frontier Corps and Border Constabulary units in their state are less than 10% Baluch, whereas in other provinces almost all personnel are locally recruited. Given that the Baluch have always been restive, we can understand why the Pakistan government is not keen to recruit more Baluchis. At the same time, Pakistan can learn something from India. Expanding recruitment of disaffected area youth into the military and paramilitary actually reduces sub-nationalism. Not only do the youth now have jobs - and one man's military job can help feed 8-10 family members - but they build up a pride in their units and their new life, and become more all-nation in their outlook.

• US, UK TROOPS TRAIN IN URBAN WARFARE IN KARACHI South Asia Tribune.com says that US and UK troops are conducting urban warfare exercises in Karachi city. The presence of the troops is acknowledged by the Pakistan military, which says they are present to help capture Islamic terrorists, the city being a favorite haunt for these people, and it is an honor for Pakistan to help train these top foreign armies.

• SAT notes that most of the terrorist organizations operating in Karachi have been broken up and it is no longer a haven for terrorists. It also notes that Karachi city's urbanscape is much the same as that of Iran's main cities.

• SAT says that the Pakistanis are quite wroth that the Iranians turned them in the instant the IAEA turned the screw on Iran's nuclear program and are happy to help the US/UK use Pakistan as a base against Iran.

• We'd like to add: the Pakistan security forces have proved themselves, repeatedly, quite capable of taking down terrorists in Karachi. What they lacked and still lack, is good intel on the whereabouts of the terrorists. That's where the US comes in: it has been providing that intel, and it sends its own operatives as observers, FBI and CIA, with the Pakistani raiding teams to ensure the latter indulge in no hanky-panky because of sympathy with the terrorists. So we agree with the SAT: the Pakistan military's story makes no sense.

• PAKISTAN N-MATTERS: ORBAT.COM COMMENTARY If SAT is correct, then we were wrong to say the other day that we doubt Pakistani N-scientists would help the US to identify Iran N-installations, as alleged by Seymour Hersh. Nonetheless, we repeat that we doubt the Pakistanis saw much in Iran, and that the installations they did see are likely to have been shifted.

• Readers may recall last year we carried the information that the reason the Iranians turned in their Pakistani helpers was because Dr. AQ Khan had taken the Iranians for a ride. He had no meaningful N-weapon technology to sell to Iran. Ditto Libya and Saudi Arabia. Notice Libya also cheerfully turned in to the IAEA details of the "help" they received from Dr. AQ Khan. The money that Dr. Khan made went to his bank accounts and to those of his protectors/sponsors in the Pakistan Government - these are, um, shall we say, "top" ranking people.

• Your editor has also said many times that Dr. AQ Khan did not just con foreign governments. He conned his own government. Pakistan does NOT have working nuclear weapons and never had them. It CAN have a bomb in 2005 or 2006, but now, as Ms. Rice, the US Secretary of State designate says to the Senate, the US has a "contingency plan" to ensure Pakistan nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of terrorists.

• Orbat.com, being fans of Dr. Rice, dutifully goes "of course you have a plan, ma'am" before bursting into gales of laughter. There are no Pakistan nuclear weapons as most of us understand the term, and what Pakistan has by way of infrastructure/assemblies etc that could possibly be used for nuclear weapons are effectively in US custody, and have been since late 2001. So there is no plan, the US took action long ago, and all that's left to Pakistan is to fire missiles and stage exercises with its "nuclear" tipped missile units in a giant hoax.

• Are we making fun of the Pakistanis? Not a bit! We admire the way they have hoaxed the Indians, whose politicians start wetting their pants when the issue of attacking Pakistan comes up. Your editor has been saying for decades the Pakistanis are much, much smarter than the Indians give them credit for. The simple proof of this is that Pakistan, which by all logic should have collapsed within a very few years of its creation, continues to exist 6 decades later. This is another story for another time.

• YOUR EDITOR LOSES HIS SOCKS Another bad day for your editor. His socks got knocked off when he read yesterday's Washington Post. The WP actually had a big story about how despite all the obstacles and the violence in Iraq, the Iraqi people were actually eagerly looking forward to the elections and the promise of a new Iraq. But your editor still maintains his positive outlook on the WP, i.e., that its a pathetic excuse for a newspaper: the journalist did not have an American name. To new readers, the editor should explain: in his old age the only thing that keeps him going is the daily opportunity to mock the half-witted foreign and military stories in the WP. Oh dear, our bad: now we've insulted the half-witted when we mean them no disrespect.

0330 GMT January 19, 2005

• IRAQ RECALLS 2000 TROOPS MSNBC says that Iraq has recalled two battalions of Saddam-era Special Forces troops. They will deploy after brief training to provide protection for the elections, and will be the first Iraqi troops to use armor. Orbat.com comment: we are not sure if this is correct. An Iraqi mechanized brigade should have taken the field by now.

• CAVALRY COMMANDER IN IRAQ ATTACKS MEDIA Reader Mike Thompson sends an article written by an American cavalry battalion in Iraq for World Tribune.com, in which he criticizes western media reporting of the Iraq insurgency. He says its easier to get Al-Arabiya or Al-Jazzera to witness a small success like opening a school than to get the western media to come. The media is uninterested in anything except negative reporting; what makes the situation worse is that the media, sacred for its safety, is not inclined to get into the field. The media has no training or understanding of counter-insurgency, preferring to seek validating words from "experts".

• One matter in particular struck us at Orbat.com as just plain wrong on the part of the media. The officer says the media was very ready to report and condemn Abu Gharib, but made no mention of the 200 people the Al-Sadr militia tried in its kangaroo courts at Najaf during the fighting, and whose headless bodies were found when the militia was defeated. The bodies often bore evidence of torture. One was found in a baker's oven.

• We had absolutely no clue Al-Sadr militia was committing atrocities on such a scale. We and our readers cover dozens of media sources every day, and no one we knew had any idea about this story.

• The officer says by its lop-sided reporting the media inflames the Arab world against the US, and that neither the Arabs nor the west gets to know about the positive developments in Iraq, which far outnumber the negative. As an example of this we've noted that 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces are peaceful. Yet to hear the media talk about it, the whole country is in chaos.

• We have often called the media whores, sometimes in polite language and sometimes not. Ooops - there we go again, insulting whores, who do a perfectly honest and necessary job. We at least, cannot find a metaphor or simile that accurately describes the western media's reporting of Iraq, because it is so biased, so incompetent, and so ignorant that Saddam could never have done as good a job of anti-American propaganda as western media, including Americans, are doing. The motives are obvious: a push to get attention, and more money.  This makes them traitors to America - not because they disagree with US policy, but because they are deliberately, knowingly, and purposefully spreading propaganda. They aid and comfort an enemy, and ironically, the enemy despises everything the media stand for. If the enemy should win, the media will be executed just as impartially as anyone else.

• A democratic society depends on debate, dissent, different points of view. But what the media is doing is not putting forth different points of view. It is putting forth its point of view in flagrant disregard of facts, to further their own agendas. That's what makes them traitors. And when an American commander openly says Al-Jazzera and Al-Aribiya are more receptive to the American message than are the western media, then we know the 4th Estate is deeply, perhaps terminally, mentally ill.

• FIRST GUILTY PLEA IN OIL-FOR-FOOD SCANDAL We have often noted for our foreign readers that the US justice system works in its own, proven way when undertaking criminal investigations. You don't see much happening to the top suspects. Yet US investigators close in on them slowly, but as surely as a snake digesting its kill.

• Now our foreign readers can see the first evidence that the snake has started to feed. An Iraqi-American has made a plea bargain with authorities, accepting his guilt and turning state's evidence against others, in return for a sentence more lenient than the maximum 28 years he faced for violations of US law.

• Now the prosecutors will go after the people this man has named, and then they'll go after the people they name, till they get to the top. At that point there's no more plea bargains except one: save the state the expense of a prolonged trial, and we'll ask the judge for a lighter sentence. An amusing irony here is that while the state can ask, by law the judge does not have to accept any deals. The judge can still throw the book at you.

• Apropos the slow and steady approach: the chairman of Worldcom is now about to go to trial, three years after the company collapsed. Like dessert, American prosecutors save the best for last.

• INDIA ALLEGES PAKISTAN SHIFTS TERROR TRAINING CAMPS TO BANGLADESH South Asia Tribune.com says the Indian Ministry for Home has prepared a report saying that Pakistan intelligence and fundamentalist groups have move 199 terror training camps out of Pakistan and Kashmir into Bangladesh. The primary reason is that the Kashmir insurgency has failed, and that US pressure on Pakistan plus fencing has made the life of insurgents grim. Bangladesh and India have porous borders, plus there are dozens of insurgencies in the Northeast for Pakistan to exploit.

• Bangladesh has strongly denied the Indian report.

• Unfortunately, while we cannot speak to the number 199, Pakistan has indeed shifted its focus from Kashmir to the Northeast. Pakistan has been active in the region for around two decades, but now its a different ball-game with very high stakes. Bangladesh itself has many Islamic fundamentalist groups, and the Bangladesh's political leaders have a live-and-let-live policy toward them.

ON INDIA AND PAKISTAN: THE EDITOR'S VIEW

• We want it very clear to our Indian and Pakistani readers we are not making any moral judgments here. Both countries have, for 4 decades, encouraged insurgencies on each other's territories as war by other means. India helped create the conditions for the secession of Bangladesh, then turned to Baluchistan and Sindh. For various reasons India's efforts came to naught, while Pakistan retaliated by stoking insurgencies in Kashmir. Now that has failed, so Pakistan has shifted to a new front, whereas the changed situation vis-a-vis Baluchistan has led India to step up its involvement there.

• Your editor's problem is that people in India and Pakistan don't seem to understand that there cannot be an India and a Pakistan. There are structural reasons going back millennia why the subcontinent east of the Indus and west/south of the Bhramaputra has to be ruled by a single center. Your editor argued this point for two decades, to be met by stony looks from both Pakistanis and Indians.

• Now your editor is told that a shift is beginning to take place: Indians, at least, are realizing there can be no peace till there is one country again. So is your editor rejoicing that a cause he fought for, for 20 years, is now coming into its own? Are the people who think as he does calling on him and offering him fat policy jobs and recognition back home? No, because aside from some of the older lot, no one knows your editor exists - its been 15 years since he's been gone. And why is your editor not busy promoting himself, pulling out his old writings, meeting important people?

• Simple. The lot that's thinking the two-nation theory is dead are the Hindu fundamentalists who are hugely anti-Muslim. Your editor might have been the hawk most to the right in India in his day, but he believes you cannot have anything except a secular India. India is unique because it can only work, and has only worked, as a unified whole when there has been tolerance. The greater the tolerance, the greater the unification. The less the tolerance, the greater the fragmentation. So your editor is sitting very quietly, contacting no one, unhappy that his ideas have come to be and there is nothing he can gain, but That's Life.

0430 GMT January 18, 2005

• US OPERATING COVERTLY IN IRAN? Reader Mike Thompson draws our attention to an article by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker, where he says the US military is operating covertly inside Iran to map out where Iranian nuclear-related installations are. In this task, Hersh says, Pakistani nuclear scientists are cooperating, in return for a promise that the US will not seek Dr. A.Q. Khan's extradition.

• The story has been blasted by Pentagon officials as a fantasy. A post from the Belmont Club lays out three possibilities. The story is true, Hersh has breached CIA security through his covert sources, and true to form for a journalist, has gone public with no concern for the lives of covert operators he is endangering, as also the lives of the Pakistani scientists. The story is merely speculation, half truths, rumors, built around an assumption that is likely to be true, that the US is inside Iran. Hersh has no real source, and has spun a fantasy from the assumption. Last, Hersh has been fed disinformation, and like almost every American journalist who is used in this manner by the government, has fallen for the story.

• We know a bit about Hersh, and personally we rule out the second possibility. We rule out the first because the US is at war, if anyone in any agency is leaking information that puts covert operators at risk, that person is in a world of trouble - and the courts do not help in national security situations. We believe he is being used, as he has been used many times. The US has been mounting a propaganda offensive against Iran, cheerfully disclosing "details" of planned military options. Good disinformation, however, has to be based on part truths and plausibility. Even if the US is not operating inside Iran, the Iranians will be predisposed to swallow Hersh's story. One point of such disinformation is to sow mistrust among the adversary's leaders, bureaucrats, intelligence agencies etc., with each looking at the other person, wondering if is a traitor.

• We can add a little bit to the Pakistani angle. The US is not going to let Mr. A.Q. Khan get a free pass. They want his head, and they will at the right time force his cooperation in telling all - if they have not already done so. The Pakistani scientists who visited Iran were shown exactly what Iran wanted them to see and nothing else. And even if some scientists saw more than was intended, Iran has been shuffling its installations around and sanitizing known suspect sites that are going to be inspected by the IAEA. Whatever the truth of the matter, it isn't the Pakistanis that are important here, as they know little or nothing. The real important people are Iranian nuclear scientists who have turned colors for ideological or money reasons. And by the way, recruiting such people is never an easy task for a variety of reasons, spy thrillers aside.

• PAKISTAN DENIES HERSH CLAIM For whatever its worth, according to Jang of Pakistan, Pakistan's Foreign Office has officially denied giving the US information about Iran's N-program When asked by a newsperson at a briefing if the US has been using Pakistani bases to spy on Iran, the government officially rather neatly - in our opinion - suggested the US should address this issue - a convoluted way of telling the newsperson to ask the US government.

0500 GMT January 17, 2005

• ISRAEL SAID GIVING ABU MAZAN CHANCE Haaretz of Israel says that despite the Israeli government giving the Army a free hand to stop rocket and mortar attacks against Israeli settlements, the Government is acting in restrained fashion intended to give the new Palestine leader a chance to show what he plans to do about the terrorists.

• BALUCHISTAN SITUATION: NO NEWS News from Baluchistan continues to be sparse. After an extended search, we found www.balochvoice.com, an insurgent website. We sampled the news from the 1st Quarter of 2004, and found 60+ attacks by Baluch insurgents were launched against Pakistan. One attack against transmission towers created an all-Baluchistan power blackout security forces at this time. Already in the first two weeks of 2005, about 10 attacks have taken place.

• Two organization identified by the above website are the Baluch Liberation Front and the Baluch National Army.

• Interesting piece of information: in our scanning of news for Baluchistan, we learn the province gets paid gas extraction royalties that are just 1/5th of those paid to the North West Frontier Province.

• BR Raman, a former Indian intelligence officer, says that the Pakistan Army habitually talks of the Baluchi resistance as insignificant and easily crushed if the political will exists.

• We listened to VOA and BBC audio clips on the situation, unfortunately, these appear to be in pure Urdu, so your editor was able to make out perhaps 1/4th of key words.

• The BBC website has no news from the last three days.

• INDIAN AIR FORCE LOSSES IN TSUNAMI Reader PVS Jagan writes to say our story that the entire Mi-8 helicopter squadron based in the Andamans area was washed away by the tsunami is wrong. First, there is only a flight based in the region, which would imply 4 helicopters. Second, no aircraft were lost. Our source was the web-edition of the Times of India. Unfortunately, military correspondents in India are about an order of magnitude less informed than US media, and we know how bad the latter is.

• US CHECKMATES AL-QAEDA BY THREAT AGAINST MECCA? Reader Mike Thompson sent us an article the other day, without comment, which unfortunately we seem to have deleted. It is from the web site of an American gentleman who's bio makes out he is a cross between Indiana Jones, Lawrence of Arabia, and Margaret Mead. It starts the listing declaring he was the youngest Eagle Scout in America, continues with details of his killing a man-eating (leopard? cheetah? panther?) at age 17, and then proceeds steadily downhill with stories and hints of his discoveries of lost tribes, covert missions for the US government, and so on.

• Perhaps we are being unfair, and he really is all these things, but if we meet him we'd have to gently tell him "Bad form and all that, old boy, to boast like that". Even for an American  the bio is totally over the top.

• Anyhows, this gentleman claims that the reason Osama Bin Laden has not launched another attack on the US after 9/11 because the US government has let him know it will nuke Mecca if the rat shows as much as the tip of a whisker outside his hole.

• This is our problem with this story. It assumes that OBL has such reverence for Mecca that he would be deterred by any threat against the Muslim Holy City. We do not have the dubious pleasure of OBL's acquaintance, but we are willing to wager the 9 empty Diet Pepsi can sitting on our desk that the US would be wondrously stupid to make any such threat.

• That's because if we were OBL, that threat would guarantee we'd attack the US again at any cost.

• So the US retaliates by reducing Mecca to radioactive silica or whatever. The entire world would rise up against the United States for (a) using a nuclear weapon (b) destroying the Muslim Vatican. OBL would get ten million volunteers for jihad against America instead of the hundreds he has (as opposed to the thousands US intel claims). These people would attack every western target they could reach. They'd be so eager to attack the US that if it were possible, they'd swim the Atlantic. We aren't even talking about the reaction from the American Muslim community. We aren't even talking about the millions of Western European Muslims or the Turks. We aren't talking about Muslims attacking the Vatican, slaughtering every westerner in Muslim lands, or the Muslims in the Balkans and Russia/CIS.

• Nuking Mecca would give OBL such happiness he would probably die on the spot.

• If this gentleman had said that THAT was the way the US plans to kill OBL, well frankly we'd give that story more credence than this one.

1500 GMT January 16, 2005

• ISRAELI ARMY ENTERS GAZA AGAIN Yesterday the Israeli Army again entered Gaza, with the objective of locating/destroying rocket launching sites that threaten the Gaza settlements.

• PALESTINE LEADER CALLS FOR CEASEFIRE, HAMAS REJECTS The new head of the Palestine Authority, this time speaking as the PA's elected leader, called for an end to violence against Israel. Hamas, speaking from Damascus, immediately rejected the call, saying at best it might accept a temporary ceasefire if Israel withdraws to its 1967 borders, but reiterating all Palestine lands must be vacated by Israel. Orbat.com comment: that is simply an  oblique way of saying Israel must cease to exist.

• US COMFORTABLE WITH EARLIEST PULL-OUT FROM INDONESIA The US says it wants to pull out its military forces working on Indonesian relief operations as soon as possible. It says the March end deadline set up Indonesia is reasonable, but hopes US troops will be gone before then

0500 GMT January 16, 2005

• BALUCHISTAN SITUATION SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL Orbat.com is sorry to learn from Jang of Pakistan and South Asia Tribune that the Baluchistan situation is spiraling out of control.

• On the one hand, the Pakistan Army is still refusing to take action against the men involved in raping a woman doctor, and instead is preparing for a military offensive against the Bugati tribe. Thousands of security forces including the Army, Frontier Corps, Frontier Constabulary, Defense Security Group, and special police units from other states are assembling and digging trenches. Despite denials by the Government that an offensive is in the offing, a house to house search has begun in Sui township for arms.

• On the other hand, the Baluchistan civil police have released documents to the press contains results of investigations and naming names. Thousands of tribesmen are said to be gathering in and around Dera Bugati, their main town, where their tribe leader lives. Meanwhile, alarmed and frightened civilians, including women and children, have been fleeing the area for some days, to the extent the press describes Sui as a ghost town.

• Orbat.com was nonplussed to see that the Jang of Pakistan headlines concern cricket matches and not the looming crisis, till we learned the Government has issued a news blackout order concerning the assault on the doctor. South Asia Tribune is published from the Washington DC area and would not consider itself vulnerable to Government pressure.

• More sordid details of the assault have emerged. Apparently the woman doctor fought back so strongly that everything in her room, including the telephone, was broken. She was knocked unconscious, and later, probably still in that state was kidnapped by the Sui authorities/Army and spirited away to Karachi without the knowledge of any except insiders. We believe a high Pakistan court has ordered her to be brought to them so she can make her statement free of coercion. We are sorry we cannot be more specific, but because of the news blackout, its impossible for us to learn much of use.

• The company that runs the Sui gasfields and the hospital for which the doctor works, have fabricated a story she was the victim of a robber who broke into her room and injured her while committing a robbery. This despite the police evidence that shows clearly an assault by multiple persons was conducted on the victim.

• Meanwhile, the damage to the gas compression and pumping equipment is so serious that 10 major cities of Pakistan are under gas rationing. In Pakistan, natural gas is used to power electricity generating plants, factories, run cars, and used for cooking. Sui produces 45% of the natural gas in Pakistan.

• Orbat.com is sitting figuratively banging ourselves on the head. What does President/General Musharraf think he is doing? Does he really intend to plunge his country into civil war over this issue? Previously, we have heard it said, he was sympathetic to the complaints of the Baluch tribes. So what does he think he is doing here?

• Orbat.com supported 100% the Pakistan Army in its attack on renegade tribesmen and militants in South Waziristan - operations there are resuming. We absolutely cannot support the Pakistan Army in the Baluch case.

• We hope sanity prevails in Islamabad, or else Pakistan - critical to the US effort against remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda - is going to get into a civil war.

• We also learn that Sunni-Shia violence has, this past week, expanded from Gilgit, the main town of the Northern Areas, to Skardu, the second largest town.

0430 GMT January 15, 2005

• ISRAEL FREEZES ALL PALESTINE CONTACTS Following a terrorist incident in which three Palestine gunmen attacked civilians at a border crossing, killing six before themselves being killed, Israel has frozen all contacts with the Palestine Authority. Israel says the latter has to convince it that the PA is capable of taking hard action against terrorism.

• Orbat.com comment On the surface, it would seem Israel is being unreasonable. Abu Mazan has not taken office, how can he be blamed for the incident?

• But there is a subset to this action, and we are certain there are many others we remain ignorant about. Prime Minister Sharon has risked his entire political life and legacy on the withdrawal issue. He has to appear to act tough or he will be in even more trouble at home.

• We recognize that the terrorists are not something the PA can easily deal with. The terrorist groups have an existence of their own, they are not creations or puppets of the PA. But here's the thing: you either take hard action, or if you cannot, reconcile yourselves to another several year of sterile suffering.

• May we presume to make a suggestion? We know you cannot do the job on your own. Ask the EU for help, and that unpleasantness like having EU security personnel running around in your country. But what are the alternatives?

• ABU GHARIB RINGLEADER GUILTY The ringleader of the Abu Gharib prisoner abuse scandal has been found guilty on all counts and now faces up to 17 years in military jail. Ironically, and perhaps not so ironically, he is a reservist who's "day job" is that of a corrections officer - read jail warder - in the United States. American jails are no joke; military jail even less of a joke. This man will be twice punished: from having power over helpless prisoners, he will be a helpless prisoner.

• Orbat.com comment When the scandal broke, we repeatedly kept calling on the media to stop acting as if a crime against humanity had been committed. At no point did we defend the guilty persons. We objected to the way the media carried on and on. To us the media was engaging in the sheerest of hypocrisies because American prisoners are treated as badly or worse, and we don't see the media concerning itself with that.

• Right now we have a request of Human Rights Watch. Can your lot kindly buzz off? You are still acting as if the most grievous of crimes has been committed. You are doing it now not because of any outrage, but because you are attempting to get even more publicity for yourself, which will result in more donations, which will benefit you in obvious way. You are wallowing in the pond of human scum, and delightedly rubbing the scum into your face.

• Who are you to speak on this subject? What did you do to uncover the crime, investigate the crime, and punish the crime? Nothing. The Army took all necessary actions itself: it was investigating before the matter hit the press, and it would have done what it needed to even if you had not existed.

• You are like a flea on a dog who thinks it has a duty to moralize and correct the dog's behavior, even as it lives off the dog.

• Stop it, already.

• We actually have great respect for you and the very hard job you do. But if you want us to maintain that respect, do something useful like hammer away at American prison conditions. Oh dear, so you have from time to time done an investigation and issued a statement. We assume you satisfy your conscience by mouthing a few words and then passing on to something grand like berating the US Army.

• You want to do something about crimes against humanity? Start in your own backyard. There's enough sanctimony in the world today. You don't need to add more.

• BALUCHISTAN BACKGROUND Thanks to Nijam Sethi of the South Asia Tribune and Ayaz Amir of Dawn, we have more background on the crisis building up around the Sui Gas fields in Pakistan's Baluchistan province.

• Baluch nationalism and sense of grievance against the government has been a feature of this province since Pakistan came into existence in 1947. The Baluch did not want to be in Pakistan; they were under the impression that when Britain withdrew from united India that they would become independent. Generally Islamabad has handled Baluch affairs in a manner allowing the tribes maximum autonomy and an uneasy status quo has prevailed.

• In 1972 the Pakistan government dismissed the Baluch provincial assembly; this was the trigger for long simmering discontent and thus began the 1972-1976 insurgency.

• Since the American arrival in Pakistan, Baluchistan has been under great pressure from Islamabad to behave. The need to provide security for US bases in Baluchistan, said to number four, and the need to stop cross-border movement of Taliban, has created a situation where the government is intruding in Baluchistan with a heavy hand. Meanwhile, the issue of retuning money to the area in exchange for the gas extracted has become ugly: the Pakistan government company in charge has done little or nothing for locals, resentment was already running high when the spark leading to the present situation was lit.

• A woman doctor, who we presume is Baluchi, was gang-raped by 14-16 men, including Pakistan Army personnel at a hospital in Sui township. When the police tried to investigate, the Army, instead of helping find and punish the culprits, refused the police access to its personnel. From there matters went from bad to worse, leading to the insurgent attack on the gas fields and the consequent heavy reinforcement of Pakistan security forces.

• Despite the great danger that the Baluch insurgency of thirty years ago will be re-lit, the government/Army are talking tough and preparing for operations against the town of Dera Bugti. The town takes it name from the Bugti tribe, which is the main power in the region.

• Orbat.com comment Your editor is shocked at the savagery of this crime, which is compounded by the victim being a doctor. Indians and Pakistanis are kinfolk, and your editor is taking this incident badly because men of the Pakistan Army are involved.  Injustice is rife in India, but even a generation ago in India this crime could not have been hushed up in the way the Pakistan Army has tried. Last year, three troopers of the Indian President's Bodyguard, an elite unit, assaulted a girl student. The reaction from the Indian Army was immediate: the men were arrested and we will not see them again for many years. The Indian President was so upset he refused to participate in a ceremonial occasion involving the President's Bodyguard, something your editor believes has never happened before. Condemnation was universal and sharp, and the Indian Army as a whole was shamed.

• Now people will say: the soldiers involved, including a Captain, are not fighting soldiers, they are part of a static security force that protects installations and are akin to a paramilitary organization.

• But your editor is not condemning the men. There are bad people in every army - the US Army's soldier who headed the Abu Gharib abuse is an example. Your editor is condemning the Pakistan Army for not immediately taking action.

• Abu Gharib came to light because a soldier reported abuse to the authorities. Of the seven persons tried so far, six fully owned up to their crime and took their punishment, which included an automatic bad conduct discharge. There was no excuse for Abu Gharib, even if the prisoners were scum, constantly provoked the guards in disgusting ways, and no one was seriously hurt.

• In the Sui case, the victim is a woman. Soldiers have a license to kill. With that license goes the heaviest of  burdens, which include honor and a duty to protect the weak. This is not a case of 3 or 4 friends having non-consensual sex with a girl they have been partying with. This is 14-16 men gang raping a woman, and a woman who by profession is sworn to heal the sick.

• Your editor appeals to General Musharraf - not to President Musharraf: Sir, you are a man with immense, and justified, pride in the Pakistan Army, the army to which you belong. You must take immediate action to protect the honor of your army. As concerns the army personnel, if convicted, you should hand them over to the tribals and let tribal justice take its course. You must make sure the doctor is relocated overseas by your government: we are astounded at her strength in refusing to quietly go away somewhere; nonetheless, you know she can have no life in Pakistan.

• Your editor had a boxing instructor in boarding school in India, near 50 years ago. He was an Englishman and once from the Burma Police. After World War II he decided to stay on in India and not go back "home". He had many and wonderful stories about his war service - mostly made up as we students realized when we grew up. One thing he said to a bunch of us one day has always remained in your