Nigeria: Oil and Gas Statistics

v.4.0

May 22, 2007

 

Since our last update, the following outages are reported, with total lost production now 950,000 bb/day:

  • 200,000 pipelines feeding ENI Brass terminal and related facilities

  • 170,000 Shell pipelines

The other outages, as best as we can learn from the world media, are modified to:

  • ENI 65,000 [no date for resumption]

  • Chevron 15,000-57,000 depending on source [earlier 98,000]

  • Shell remains same 477,000

  • Status of 100,000 previously shut-down relying on Shell facilities unknown

This implies that some production from the loss list below has been restored.

 

An International Herald Tribune report April 4, 2007 said Shell planned to resume full production within 5-6 months, but noted that such plans have not previously materialized. Besides, given the difficulty of protecting the area against attacks, new attacks are easy to mount. The only workable defense would be to pay locals to protect facilities. This is, of course, what they want. At the same time, however, this would mean channeling money to anti-government groups, something no oil company can afford no matter what the production loss.

 

Nigeria's OPEC quota is 2.2-million bbl/day; its full production capability is 3-million bbl/day. [Other sources say 2.6-million.]

 

Shell infrastructure includes:

  • 3720 miles pipelines

  • 90 oil fields

  • 73 flow stations

 

v.3.0

January 8, 2007

 

According to Reuters Nigerian government estimates 800,000 bbl/day is off the market due to stoppages, leakages, and theft, as opposed to about 3,000,000 which should have been produced. This indicates no improvement in the situation since August 2006.

 

Major outages:

 

  • 477,000 Shell [380,000 at Forcados]

  • 100,000 others who rely on Shell pipelines and export terminals

  • 98,000 Chevron due to stoppage/leaks

  • 40,000 ENI

 

v.2.2

August 1, 2006

 

An estimated 800,000 bbl/day of Nigeria's oil is off the market, mainly due to internal unrest but also due to an unexplained leak in a 180,000 bb/day pipeline.

[http://www.worldenergysource.com/wemr/cover.cfm?ci=19&pid=1]

 

US Department of Energy, however, gives a less bleak picture, saying July's output was 2.35 million bb/day, which is very close to capacity.[http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3atab.html]

 

 

v.2.1

March 25, 2006

 

Current production

 

Oil

 

2.5 million barrels/day production capacity. Plans to raise this to 3 million/bpd appear stalled due to unrest. It is planned to produce 4 million/bpd by 2010.

 

About 300,000/bpd is utilized inside the country, leaving approximately 2.2 million/bpd for export. The US is Nigeria's largest customer, taking 1.15 million/bpd.

 

At our last report, March 23, 2006, 547,000 bpd was "shut-in", i.e., unavailable, because of trouble in the Niger River Delta.

 

This figure is now refined to 556,000 bpd. In addition, on March 23, 2006 insurgents blew up an AGIP pipeline in Baylesa State, costing another 75,000 bpd.

 

Against that, the off-shore Bonga field has come on stream as of December 2005, with 125,000 bbl/day, slated to increase to 225,000 bbl/day.

 

With the attack on the pipeline, it is anticipated insurgents will move further east, into Rivers and Ibom States.

 

It is unclear to us to what extent the Delta problems are affecting Nigeria's oil exports and world oil price problems. Despite the troubles, Nigeria is producing slightly above its OPEC quota. It would appear that the "shut-in" is NOT affecting exports.

 

Nigeria has proven reserves of 35 billion barrels; there is a considerable area yet to be explored. Exploration is being conducted to add 5 billion bbl to reserves.

 

In addition, a new offshore oilfield shared with Sao Tome is estimated to hold 11 billion bbl. This field could be yielding 3 million bpd by 2009, becoming a major factor in meeting global oil demand.

 

PRC companies are increasing involved in exploration, which hitherto has been the exclusive preserve of western oil majors.

 

Nigerian crude is low sulfur and therefore premium in oil markets.

 

Gas

 

Nigeria has upwards of 175 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; new discoveries indicate the total may rise to 660 trillion cubic feet.

 

As of 2004 Nigeria was flaring 75% of its natural gas for lack of processing facilities, amounting to 20% of flared gas worldwide.

 

Nigeria is embarking on an ambitious program to end flaring by 2008. The program appears on track.

 

Production of LNG is about .8 TCF/year, and will increase to 1 TCF/year by 2008.

 

There are plans to build an overland pipeline via Niger to Algeria, for export of gas to Europe. A 75 billion/cft year pipeline is operational to export gas to Ghana, Benin, and Togo; its capacity will double by 2020.  Two pipelines to distribute gas for internal consumption are also planned.

 

Security

 

The replacement of the dictatorship by a democracy in 2003 has had the effect of allowing ethnic trouble in the Niger Delta to surface in full force. As much as 20% of Nigeria’s daily oil production is stolen by Delta peoples. The rebels have become more aggressive over the last several months and announced on February 18th they will start attacking oil tankers and government/company helicopters.

 

Though the Nigerian Army has two divisions in the Niger Delta, the size of the area and the intimate knowledge of local geography possessed by the rebels have led to a lack of success in controlling the upsurge of violence.

 

Niger Delta Map