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Editor
Ravi Rikhye

Associate Editor
Mandeep Singh Bajwa

Chief Technical Officer
Dale Atkins

Publisher
Ravi Rikhye

Concise World Armies 2009

Ravi Rikhye

1228  orbat pages

Page figure includes updates, E-Book by itself has 1184 pages.

Includes bonus battalion orbat of US Army Combat Brigades 2011

Includes

France Gendarmerie

(Bonus sample from Complete World Paramilitary Forces 2005)

$75 E-book/$200 printed

Analysis

Swat, Pakistan North West Frontier Province

[February 13, 2009]

 

WE BRING YOU THE WORLD ©
PUBLISHED ON AN AD HOC BASIS

 

Long War Journal on new US Afghanistan Strategy

For general news about US deployments/operations, visit www.globalsecurity.org  

For solid reporting from Iraq from the US military's view, read Bill Roggio at www.longwarjournal.com  

 

 

Somalia Piracy

September, 2009

30 ships from 17 nations


European TF Atalanta

HQ Northwood, London

  • Canarias (FF, SPA)

  • Bremen (FF, GER)

  • Brandenburg (FF, GER)

  • Lafeyette (FF, FRA)

  • Amethyste (SS, FRA)

  • Maestrale (FF, ITA)

  • Fridtjof Nasan (FF, NOR)

  • Malmo (Corvette, SWE)

  • Trosso (Corvette, SWE)

  • Stockholm (Corvette, SWE)

  • 2 P-3, 1 Atlantique, 1 AWACS

Authorized to December 2010

US CTF 151

Turkey, Command

  • USS Gettysburg (Flag)

  • Canada

  • Denmark

  • France

  • Netherlands

  • Pakistan

  • Singapore

  • United Kingdom

  • Australia

 

Independent command

Japan (2 destroyers)

PLAN (2 destroyers)

India (1 destroyer)

Russia (2 ships)

 

 

Support by US 5th Fleet

CTF 150

Primarily oriented toward operations in Afghanistan/Iraq but steps in whenever possible

Ideas for US Energy Independence

Energy Facts

New At TOE

100+ pages of Vietnam era TOEs 

 

America Goes To War Resources 2001-2004

Concise World Armies 2010

 

If you have purchased CWA 2009, particularly with updates, there is no need to buy CWA 2010. We are changing the publication cycle from July 1 each year to 1 January. There is not enough new material in 2010 as yet to justify the expense of a new purchase.

 

E-Book $75; hard copy $200 (two volumes, not yet published; target date February 1, 2010) 1228 orbat pages (11 point type, pages  537 x 697 points). Page figure includes updates, E-Book by itself has 1184 pages.

 

List of Countries

 

After you order, kindly let the Editor know at rikhye1@hotmail.com

 

Purchasers are reminded that 95% of the material in CWA 2009 is copyrighted proprietary information and is sold to you in the explicit understanding it is solely for your private use.

 

CWA Updates 2009-2010

 

#17. December 6, 2009 Italy (21 pages)
#18. December 13, 2009 Myanmar Version 2.4 (12 pages; previously 6 pages))
#19. December 20, 2009 Uganda (4 pages; previously 2 pages)
#20. December 27, 2009 Germany (24 pages; previously 12 pages)
#21. January 1, 2010 US Army Maneuver Enhancement Brigades (new, 4 pages)
#22. January 8, 2010 Lebanon update (Richard M. Bennett)


New Orbats open to the public

12.23.2009 Myanmar 2009 (6 pages) Richard M. Bennett

 

US Relief Forces to Haiti

January 14, 2010 v.1.1

Terry Shifflet

 

We've restored orbats open to the public. Now its up to the public to send orbats. Our staff must focus on keeping Concise World Armies updated.

 

0230 GMT February 9, 2010

 

Karachi

 

  • As readers might know, Karachi has for some weeks now been experiencing a series of targeted killings, one after another. Please be assured that anything to do with Pakistani internal politics is not just extremely complicated, it is complexity squared. We asked reader V. Kradiac if he had any light to throw on the situation. Who is killing whom, and why are people trying to destabilize Karachi? These targeted killings are ominous, and dangerous, because if Karachi explodes into inter-factional violence, there is nothing any law-enforcement agency, perhaps even the Army. can do about it because this is a huge metropolis of about 14-million, with more fault-lines than could be detailed in a long book.

  • Below is Kradiac's thesis, which he says is based partly on his knowledge of the city, partly on news reports, and partly on informed speculation to bridge gaps.

  • Karachi situation Mysterious violence and targeted assassinations has been plaguing Karachi for some weeks now, since the Ashura attack and subsequent "pre-meditated" reprisal destroying 3000+ shops.

  • [Today, February 8,  a former minister in Musharraf's government and a leader of the PML-Q (a Pakistani political party backed by the ISI), was attacked outside his party headquarters in Rawalpindi. Sheikh Rasheed had left the PML-Q on losing his seat in Pakistan's post-Musharraf elections and had started his own political party. He survived the attack, though two bodyguards and two by slanderers  died. This is being called by some as a targeted attempted assassination designed to bring unrest to Rawalpindi.]

  • Karachi's importance Karachi city contributes 45% to GDP of Pakistan. Apart from being Pakistan's jugular, Karachi port the cheapest interface for routing US/NATO logistics to Afghanistan. As a metro it is an explosive mixture of migrant communities For extra-territorial actors hostile to Pakistan state like say Al Qaeda/TTP (the anti-government Taliban), Iran, India, or even US elements working with authorization at cross purposes with official Washington policy, lighting the tinderbox that is Karachi would serve two purposes: bring Pakistan to its knees; and make the Karachi route unviable/impossible for US/NATO. The purpose of this would be to force US/NATO to explore other options, reducing - or ideally eliminating - dependency on Pakistan.

  • Over to India – India's lack of leverage India is restarting dialogue process with Pakistan contrary to its earlier position that talks wont start without a visible irreversible steps towards shutting down India-centric terror groups which are openly training, recruiting and camping with full blessing of its military-political-clerical structure.

  • Back in November 2008 soon after the terror attack, all India had in its collective diplomatic-military-intelligence arsenal as a leverage to demand shutting down anti-India activities, was a full fledged conventional attack on Pakistan proper. This can be checkmated by Pak's qualitatively superior amour force and its deadly arsenal of conventional MRBMs/LACMs not to mention its nuclear arsenal. Tellingly Pakistan COAS Kayani didn't even mention nuclear options in post-Mumbai attack confrontation. He instead subtly threatened critical Indian infrastructure with missiles as possible immediate reprisal options.

  • Indian land forces are minimum a decade away from acquiring tools to activate its pro-active strategy (Cold Start). In an unprecedented manner, FICCI (India's Chamber of Commerce) constituted a fact finding task force soon after Mumbai 2008 terror attack and submitted its report to Home Minister which openly calls for “inflicting economic pain” on Pakistan, deniable covert ops among other things.

  • The only reason for India now to come to negotiations is if it has since developed some leverage as its demands are far from being met.

  • Editor's comment Sadly, Kradiac's assessment of India being many years from its Cold Start strategy is something the Editor shares. If the conventional option is unavailable to India, it might well have decided to use the covert option, hitting Pakistan where it really hurts. It also may be that India, wary of US and international opinion, does not want to use the conventional option, and is returning Pakistan's favors in Kashmir with its own favors, in Karachi.

  • India's conventional option Cold Start is one of those ideas that sounds great in theory, until one realizes that India neither has the force structure to conduct CS, nor has Pakistan remained idle. It is prepared to counter CS thanks to moves it initiated even before CS was mooted.

  • Does this mean India cannot retaliate against Pakistan conventionally? Of course not. India can only not retaliate cheaply. The option of a drag-down, knock-out strategy very much exists, and Editor at least is encouraged that at least the Army Chief himself has stated the obvious: an Indian conventional option is real, despite the N-weapons on both sides.

  • If you doubt that, ask yourself why then did NATO and the Warsaw Pact maintain very large conventional forces that they constantly upgraded. After all, they needed to do no more than have armies of a single soldier each, facing each other at a point along the Inner German Border. If either soldier as much as took a step forward, East or West, it would mean war - a nuclear war, and both sides would lose within hours.

  • Both sides maintained colossal conventional forces because, as everyone recognized, N-weapons were useless. Mutual nuclear suicide was never an option. It is the same in South Asia, which is hardly the most dangerous place in the world as western academics never fail to tell us.

  • On the Editor's whim, he has persuaded Mandeep Bajwa to join him in writing a short paper for India's Director General Mechanized Forces on how the shortcomings of Cold Start can be remedied within 36-months. This is the Editor's conceit: the measures India needs to take are so simple, the Editor has to show his brilliance by writing a paper. But neither Mandeep nor he is under illusion that the paper will be seriously read, let alone acted on.

  • That's because India is India. India has been around for 30 centuries through good times and bad. It's geographic arrangement has changed many times in each century. But India has endured, and though the end of the world may come, India will still exist, in some form, as long as humans exist. This is because as Sunil Khilani has said, India is not a place with fixed map boundaries, it is an idea.

  • And India does not hurry for anyone. The last time the Indian military exerted itself with some urgency was in 1963-66, after the China war. In line with India's perfectly defensive nature, the Indian military spends most of its time explaining why something can NOT be done, rather than working on what CAN be done. Yes, there is 1971. But even the great Mrs. Indira Gandhi, within a month of the outbreak of war, began worrying about her own brashness, and she pulled back. 1971 was a blip. The passivity of India 1999, in 2002, in 2008 is more typical. Attack us and we will hit back - maybe. As for us take the initiative? Forget it.


     

 

0230 GMT February 8, 2010

 

  • "Jamaat-ud-Dawah chief Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, accused of masterminding the Mumbai attacks, said the only solution to problems between India and Pakistan is the "liberation of Jammu and Kashmir, failing which radical groups would resort to the option of jehad."" This is from a Times of India dispatch from Lahore.
  • Sigh. When will they ever learn? Pakistan has four times tries to snatch Jammu and Kashmir from India, each time using jihadi tactics, and it hasn't worked, 1947-48, 1965 - where the jihadi tactics led to war between the countries; 1987-2005; and 1999. The last was a mock jihad, as the Pakistan GHQ, never known for the depth of its thought processes, decided to launch the paramilitary Northern Light Infantry against India, and blandly said it was not involved because these were jihadis,
  • How does the the good Saeed propose to snatch Jammu and Kashmir from India? Has he bothered to read his history or to assess the military balance between the two countries? Has he understood any direct Pakistan attack on Kashmir would give India its long-sought excuse to launch its forces across the international border?
  • And as for the jihad part, first, Pakistan has relaunched its jihadis already. The real infiltration will begin in the late spring when the high mountain passes are snow-free, but small-scale infiltration and skirmishes have taken place all last year, so which option is he talking about? The difference this time is that the Indian Army has learned its lessons - and so has the Indian Government. The Army has spent the last five years preparing for a restart to the insurgency. What have the jihadis learned? Do they think the inability of the Pakistanis to defeat them (which it in any case they don't want to do) translates into an equal incompetence and unwillingness to kill on the Indian Army's side.
  • With this kind of bad attitude, the Saeed will have to learn - again - the hard way: the Indians will be absolutely merciless with the jihadis, as they have always been. The jihadis are not even insurgents: they are Pakistanis, aided and abetted by Pakistan for its own strategic purposes, and they will be attacking a sovereign state from bases within another sovereign state. Their ISI and GHQ masters will not claim them when they are caught, and the Indians will execute them all because these are men completely outside of ambit of international law.
  • Does the Saeed think the Pakistan Army will help these men as it has helped them in the past, laying down artillery barrages to cover their ingress and egress? If he thinks it will, he must be even more foolish than we think, because unless Pakistan wants to commit suicide, why at this time would it want to activate a front where it is outnumbered and outgunned?
  • While the Saeed is amusing, the real question is what will the US do if the Pakistanis reactivate the insurgency? Will the US live up to its word and obligations to India as a friend, ally, and victim of terrorism and sanction Pakistan? Or will it again play a double game as it has for years?
  • We at Orbat.com are happy to tell you exactly how it will play out. The Americans will play their double game and not sanction Pakistan in any way, any more than they did earlier. The Americans will flatter the Indians with words and morsels, and the Indian leaders will fall for it, as they always do when shown "honor" and "deference" by the white man. The Americans will loudly proclaim the "statesmanship" of the Indian leaders who will refrain from retaliating, and the Indians will preen more.
  • Will any Indian ask the Americans: "And please tell us what statesmanship did you show when you were attacked by terrorists? Please show us how restrained you were?" Of course not. Will anyone in the Indian Parliament question, criticize, attack the US for its double standards on terrorism? No, aside from a handful of discredited, brain damaged leftists.
  • In the end, one person will not criticize the Americans for the double-dealing, and that is the Editor. If the Indians want to be masochistically abused by the Americans, how can we blame the Americans? There will be only one side to blame, and that is the Indians themselves. 

0230 GMT February 7, 2010

 

  • Denmark special forces free merchant ship during hijack This was possible because the ship was registered with the authorities and it was travelling in a group in a protected corridor. This seems to suggest that convoying is underway, probably not a tight convoy but a spread out one. Once the Danes confirmed that the crew was in a safe compartment, they launched dinghies and boarded the vessel to search for the hijackers. The Indian Weapons class missile frigate Tabr deployed in the Gulf of Aden played a small role: it was the first to pick up the merchantman's distress signal, which it passed to a French patrol plane. The French visually confirmed that hijackers were on the deck of the ship and notified the Danes, who took over the operation.

  • Now, while we must congratulate all for an excellent job of coordination and the Dane's in particular, please do not be surprised if the Danes make sure the pirates have their pink blankies and bunny slippers before they are released to try again.

  • The only time this pirate business is worth noting is when the boarding forces kill the pirates. Anything else is plainly futile.

  • Reader Luxemborg sends links to two articles One is amusing. A Federation of American Scientists blog http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/02/kleinebrogel.php claims that Danish peace activists entered a area of the Belgian Air Force base at Kleine Brogel where US N-weapons are stored, wandered around for an hour before a single security guard with an unloaded weapon approached them to find out what they were doing. The implication is that US N-weapons can easily be snatch by terrorists.

  • Now, of course the US Government does not see it neccessary to inform the Editor where it stores its N-weapons, but since when has a lone Belgian sentry with an unarmed weapon been set to protect a US N-weapons storage site - one without dogs and open gates, no less? And why would the US have N-weapons in Europe anyway? This is not 1960, 1970, 1980, or even 1990. If any N-weapons are left in the theatre, they are likely to be in the UK. The FAS story clearly suggests that the activists entered an abandoned area of the 4.5 square-kilometer base.

  • As their punishment the activists were made to kneel in the snow - after reinforcements showed up - and lectured on how they would get into trouble if they returned, before being released.

  • The other story is nothing short of alarming. It is a Bloomberg story datelined February 5

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJhBD4AeX8WA which says that China has "trillions and trillions" yuan worth of bad loans which are already in default. Last year alone - admittedly atypical because of a large stimulus package - Chinese banks lent $1.4-trillion worth of money, a lot of which went into fuelling the already way overheated real-estate and stock markets. Real GDP figures of China - as opposed to the official figures - are hard to come by, but even if we assume the GDP is $3-trillion, that's like US banks handing out $6-trillion worth of loans in a single year without the least financial transparency. This sounds like a disaster in the making.

  • China and its $123-Trillion GDP Someone noted the other day that at one time people used to assume that the Japanese had found the secret to perennial growth and would overtake the US in GDP in a matter of years. This didn't anywhere near happen, and most are agreed it will never happen.

  • So why did we yesterday talk of China's per capita soon being twice that of the US
    • and total GDP being 40% of the world GDP?
  • Well, that was a bit tongue in cheek. If you want to extrapolate current trends into the future, you can confuse yourself a bit. India's "natural"  growth at this time is about 8%, which means the GDP is doubling every nine years. You could just as well say that in 50 years India will have a GDP of around $60-trillion, about total world GDP at this time. But do you hear anyone saying that? No, because it has an air of the ridiculous.
  • Both India and China have such high growth rates because their base was so small to begin with. As their economies grow, their growth rates will fall. And with Chinese statistics you have to in any case be very careful.
  • Nonetheless, our point was valid: if China really does grow to $123-trillion GDP, someone will have to supply them with manufactured goods and agricultural that could well be the US.
  • You can read the original article at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000 The rebuttal is at http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/07/a_123_trillion_china_not_likely

     

    0230 GMT February 6, 2010

     

  • Case closed on the 3 Americans killed in Pakistan. Or not. Reader Greyson sent an article that identifies the three men killed in a suicide bombing attack in Pakistan's tribal areas. Two belong to a civil affairs brigade, and one to a psychological operations group.

  • At first we though this closes the case: these are the sorts of units engaged in reconstruction work; we were wrong, the official story they were on their way for a school-reopening ceremony adequately explains their presence.

  • But then we thought some more. (a) Given how sensitive is the matter of stationing Americans in region is, why would Pakistan agree to let US soldiers participate in reconstruction work? This is not a mission that can be conducted covertly, and the sight of Americans wandering around fixing up schools and such would bring out the xenophobia typical of the region. (b) The US embassy said the men were training the Frontier Corps. As far as we know, military training is imparted by the Special Forces, unless you have the big, overt training missions like US/NATO has in Afghanistan. Fort Bragg, where the units to which the men belonged, is also home to US Special Forces.

  • Overall, this is hardly a big mystery. Someone has to be locating/calling in strikes for the UAVs, and logically it would be US troops. You don't want the drones attacking targets exclusively designated/controlled by the Pakistanis because the latter will be up to all kinds of tricks and mischief.

  • Iraq violence no cause for worry In recent weeks it seems as if the Shias and Sunnis in Iraq are again busy killing each other. But this is neither cause for worry or for American concern.

  • First, Iraq belongs to the Iraqis, not to the Americans. The Americans have overthrown Iraq's  hated dictator, built a democratic political structure, and now - really - its up to the Iraqis to do things their way.

  • Second, its seldom wars of any sort, leave alone civil wars, end with negotiated settlements. One side or the other wins - as for example in Sri Lanka. The US of all people should know this: after all, it has fought three civil wars and each ended with one side decisively defeating the other.

  • The US has fought three wars? you will ask. What alternative universe is this? Its just our usual universe. The War of the American Revolution was a civil war: Americans rose up against their legal government, and that war went on and on till the legal government conceded defeat. The War Between the States was a civil war, no disagreement. But so were the Indian Wars, and we know how those ended.

  • The Balkans are a bit different because you have six or seven small states split from the FRY, some with populations scarcely more than a single US metropolis. NATO was/is able to exert enough force to keep people from each other's throats because the countries are so small. Plus EU has a fat enough wallet to pay people not to fight each other. Iraq is way too big for the US to dominate.

  • Third, US hope was that the fissures in Iraq could be resolved through the ballot box rather than the gun. To some extent it is happening. To some extent, it is not, because the fissures are too deep. There is an election coming up in Iraq, people are staking out their positions, some by campaigning, others with guns. This is the way of the world.

  • But however it comes out, it's not our business anymore. US said it was not invading Iraq to colonize the country, we have proven that is true by turning over the country to its inhabitants, and also proven it true by the pathetic inability to get oil contracts, which cynical people swore was the real reason for Gulf II. The best way to prove the cynics wrong is by leaving, and the US is so fed up of the place that there is no way it will reverse its departure.

  • As for the 30-50,000 troops Americans wants to leave behind indefinitely: don't worry about it, because that's the American plan, not the Iraqi. And the Iraqis are running the place, not the Americans. Those troops will leave the day the Iraqis demand it, and its likely to be pretty darn soon. And a good thing too. We need to get out of Iraq so we have troops to mess up somewhere else.

  • We're not being cynical when we say that. Just realistic.

  • Hope for America in China's rise someone has come up with the idea that China's GDP will grow to $123-billion by 30 or 40 (or however many) years and that will be 40% of the GDP of the world. When the US Colossus ruled the years immediately after World War II, the US had between 40-45% of the world's GDP, if not 50% - but that isn't our point.

  • If China's GDP really goes to $123-trillion, its per capita  income will be near $100,000 as opposed to the US's current ~$45,000 or so. we noted the other day that for non-professional/non-supervisory workers, US wages have gone down by 9% in the last 30-years, and this trend will, we think, continue. Its possible then that in future money, China's per capita will be twice that of the US. And there is simply no way China will be able to compete with the US on manufacturing or anything that requires labor. US will become a great manufacturing and export again. Of course, Editor will long since have gone Downstairs to his un-heavenly reward, but what the heck: he got to see the US when the country was at its zenith, and he is confident 30-60 years from now the US will return.

  • Wont be the same US, most likely: possibly a North American confederation with 500-million Americans, 200-million Mexicans, and 50-million Canadians. But with the rise of China and India, to have equal status the US will pretty much have to have a population as close to those countries as possible.

  • Just a thought.

 

0230 GMT February 5, 2010

 

Long War Journal on suicide attack on US troops in Dir, Pakistan

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/02/suicide_bomber_carri.php

 

Apologies - couldn't do a full update tonight due to errands.

  • Indian armor in shambles according to military blogger Ajai Shukla. http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/ 80% of Indian tanks lack night fighting capability, 800+ T-72 (about half the inventory) is waiting engine rebuild and other refurbishment due to age, the Ministry of Defense has deliberately understated the cost of the T-90 by leaving out critical systems that will be separately sourced later. And the T-90's thermal sights don't work in Indian summer temperatures.

  • The Pakistanis must be laughing themselves sick.

 

 

0230 GMT February 4, 2010

 

Russians kill AQ in Caucuses co-founder

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/02/russian_police_kill.php

 

  • In what may be a harbinger, the Taliban killed three US soldiers inside Pakistan. Supposedly they were part of a convoy going to open a school that had been destroyed by the Taliban and rebuilt. The Pakistan press called the soldiers "international aid workers", but supposedly they were in Pakistan to train the paramilitary.

  • Okay, you say, whats with these "supposedlys?"

  • But does it make sense that three US soldiers in Pakistan's NWFP for any reason should be going to a school opening ceremony, which presumably is held amongst the local civilian population? Why would Pakistan be paranoid enough to refer to them as international aid workers and not identify them for what they are, and still have them appear in public ceremonies?

  • Apparently civilians were killed at a school - six rooms blown out where the Taliban struck.

  • The Americans were in the first car - according to the Pakistanis - when a remote bomb was detonated. Makes perfect sense: American soldiers travelling openly in the NWFP, leading the celebratory convoy. A second version says the Americans were travelling in an armored vehicle equipped with jammers so it couldn't have been a road-side bomb. It was a vehicle-borne suicide bomber.

  • The Taliban say the Americans belonged to Xe. But would Xe employees be opening a school?

  • The article refers to the alleged trainer as part of a little-known program. Really? The US and British media seem to know all about it. Heck, even we know about it. The Pakistan media carefully peruses the western media. It's doubtful they'd miss a story like this.

  • The Dawn story (second version)  http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/provinces/04-explosion-lower-dir-qs-01 identifies the dead as three sergeants and one wounded as a major.

  • Pardon us if this is not making sense to us.

  • The BBC repeats the convoy travelling to inaugurate a school version. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8494890.stm

  • US Embassy says the men were trainers. Would the embassy say anything else?

  • The truth remains an elusive commodity in the NWFP.

  • Incidentally from the Pakistan press we learn that the Taliban inside the town that was targeted by UAVs the other day used AA guns mounted on trucks to try and shoot down the UAVs.

 

0230 GMT February 3, 2010

 

Long War Journal on latest in the US UAV assault on Pakistani Taliban

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/02/predators_pound_terr.php

 

  • Pakistan Army mounts battalion-sized operation in Baijur we get totally confused because one day the Pakistan Army says it has cleared an area, and the next thing you know either the Taliban have struck back or the area is in Taliban hands. So if anyone can figure out what's going on in Baijur, please let us know.

  • http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/03-militants-stage-comeback-in-bajaur-region-ss-02

  • US steps up anti-missile defense in the Gulf Aegis warships are to be permanently stationed in the Persian Gulf. Four Gulf states, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait are getting US Patriot PAC 3 and THAAD anti-missile systems. It appears US  will also station its own missile interceptor units in some or all the four countries.

  • For a quick summary of the Navy and Air Force 30-year plans submitted by the DOD, read http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4482716&c=AME&s=SEA

  • If you want to get an industrial strength migraine read up on any aspect of Indian weapons production - except naval, which is a success. In 1983 India formulated a requirement for a new light fighter to replace the ubiquitous MiG-21. The plane will enter squadron service in 2012 - unless there are further delays; a mere 29 years after the requirement.

  • US Defense budget We'd noted yesterday that re. the US defense, two sets of figures were being given: $708 and $744-billion for FY 2011. The latter figure includes the extra for the Afghan surge.

  • we've been complaining about the huge sums of money the US spends tp get a pathetic number of people on the ground for the CI mission. It seems the problem is far more complex than the Editor imagined. Editor has always steered clear of US defense politics as being too complicated for mere mortals to understand. If you want to see just really how complicated they are, read the below quick letter from Shawn Dudley. We had no clue things were that dysfunctional.

  • From Shawn Dudley  I agree it's irritating to see the US have to resort to such numbers games because they didn't consistently support their procurement. To some extent I have to sympathize with the uniformed services on this, as they went through a period ('79-'92) where they were very well supported by various Administrations. When Clinton got into town they cut the heart out of procurement and perversely forced the services into big-ticket programs such as Comanche and Crusader (many of which were canceled after billions spent).  Bush II was supposed to change all of that but then we got an actual war instead and money needed for the next generation of weapons gets spent on re-fighting the Vietnam war.  So in the end we have to scrape together whatever leftovers from the 1980s we have left.

  • I spent a few months on Capital Hill as a staffer and immediately saw the problem on the Congressional side. Typically, Republicans never met a weapons system they didn't like but most had no idea how they fit into building a good military (needless to say none of them had prior service or studied war seriously). On the Democratic side there were the "moderates" who were convinced that the military was scamming congress on every weapon system to max on profit, and the "liberals" who would be against any weapon system that wasn't built in their district.  Keep in mind that these guys are the ones that fight over the defense budget every year, but nearly none of them know what they're fighting for or what system would be better than another.  As a result the Defense Industry often dominates the debate, except when the GAO butts in and tries to prove it knows more than the Army does about how to fight wars.

     

 

0230 GMT February 2, 2010

 

 

  • US DOD budget 2011 at $708-billion. $159-billion is for war costs, but excludes the costs of the Afghan surge, apparently. That will be requested separately O & M takes $200-billion; equipment $112-billion. Missile defense gets $10-billion. We haven't seen a separate breakout for R  &D, other possible items, and pay & allowances. That comes out of the $227-billion left.

  • On top of the $709-billion, you have to aid the intelligence and homeland security spending and the additional Afghanistan spending yet to come. $800-billion is probably a reasonable total.

  • In 1944, at the peak of the war, the defense budget was $80-billion, ~$800-billion in today's money.

  • US fielded ~100 army/Marine divisions in World War II. Now it has 13 divisions.

  • The budget figures are from Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204575039223181876584.html?mod=WSJ-hpp-LEADNewsCollection . 

  • But in another place, WSJ gives the defense budget as $744-billion http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204575039223181876584.html?mod=WSJ-hpp-LEADNewsCollection#project%3DBUDGET1001%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive  So the total may well end up at $850-billion.

  • How the Taliban are adapting to the US Marines in Helmand Read this story from the New York Times and weep. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/world/asia/02taliban.html?ref=world We all make the error of thinking that a threat is static: figure out how to defeat it and you're home free. Except you're not, because the other side adapts. This article shows how the Taliban, using the most primitive means of surveillance and warning, evade US Marines who come looking for them. Hate these guys, but as guerillas, they're good. Long way from the Viet Cong and NVA - the latter used many guerilla tactics, but then those guys were really, really good. 

  • Israel operationalizes first C-RAM battalion here's a new acronym for you: Counter Rocket Artillery Mortar. In Israel the system is named Iron Dome. The interceptor part looks to be a lightweight 12-round towed launcher using a missile called Tamir. The developer says Tamir will cost $40,000/round; of course, we don't know under what assumptions.  The 947th Battalion, a former Stinger unit is posted on the northern border to defend against rocket attacks from Gaza. Presumably the unit will get plenty of real life exercise so that Israel can work out kinks.

  • For outline details, read http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/RAM082709.xml

  • Presumably Iron Dome's early problems - it was near useless at stopping rockets over very short ranges - have been worked out. See the 2008 story at http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/956859.html

  • Aviation Week says the US is developing its own systems for a 2012 fire-off for the Army between competitors. This system uses VLS missiles. A system deployed in Iraq, Centurion, using Phalanx Gatling guns and is credited with defeating 110 mortar attacks.

  • All this is interesting stuff, because these systems also work against medium artillery shells and rockets. Currently, if you're under attack by artillery and rockets, you simply have to grin and bear it, dig deep and pray a lot. Artillery is traditionally the big killer on the battlefield, and any system that can counter it could change a lot of things.

  • At least until the artillery comes up with a counter to the counter.

0230 GMT February 1, 2010

 

  • An increasingly assertive China Apparently the Indians are not the only ones beset by an increasingly assertive China. Yesterday's Washington Post said that this pushiness is being exerted on everyone around the world, and people are figuring out how to react. As an example of this pushiness - this is not a joke - an American diplomat planning a dinner for a Chinese official received a phone call from an aide to the Chinese official, wanting to know what was for dinner. Fish, he was told. Fish is not healthy, said the aide. He eats steak.

  • What we find baffling is: why is anyone surprised that China is becoming increasing assertive? For one thing, everyone around the world rushes to kiss China's rear on the assumption huge sums of money are to be made. How is China expected to react? If people come and abase themselves, aren't the Chinese entitled to sneer? Shouldn't they think everyone else is weak? When no one dares censor China for its massive and continual human rights violations, its absurd mercantilist export policies which involve China getting rich and everyone else getting poor, etc etc, what are the Chinese to assume but that people are frightened of China?

  • Don't blame the Chinese for their assertiveness. Blame yourselves for your wimpiness. And - haha - if you think the Chinese are assertive now, wait for 10 years. You're in for a surprise, but only because you have deliberately remained ignorant of how the Chinese operate. Opening your eyes to the real China has consequences, such as realizing the Chinese play by their own rules, not yours, and if they act tough, you have return the compliment in spades, not try and read meaning into a Chinese official's demand for steak.

  • It it was an imperial demand to begin with. Maybe the man is allergic to fish. Maybe he was looking forward to dining on a nice, thick, juicy steak.

  • A minor scandal brewed in Pakistan's Parliament when it was stated that Indian made items were being transported through Pakistan as part of ISAF-NATO supply effort.

  • On thinking about it, we're not sure there is any scandal. It seems to us ISAF-NATO supply contractors are simply buying widely available Indian made goods from local markets in the Gulf states.

  • Accordingly, we don't think this is a per se violation of Pakistan's ban on the shipment of Indian goods through Afghanistan. Once the goods are shipped to the Gulf they become local property, and once purchased in the Gulf, they become ISAF-NATO property. India is not trading with Afghanistan directly or indirectly because it is not as if the goods are being sold in Afghanistan.

  • In the Give US A Break department Osama says global warming is the fault of the western countries, and after donkey's years he's gotten around to mentioning he backs the Palestinian struggle against Israel. Oh please. Does he think he's going to attract new followers because of his pedestrian views on global warming? Does he really believe anyone will be fooled by his sudden love of Palestine?

  • Personally we think these pronouncements prove the man is dead. What's next? Is he going to denounce high-calorie foods and the MMR vaccine and the high US teenage birthrate?

  • The allotment of the new US guns to Indian mountain divisions. Mandeep Bajwa corrected us today: the reequiped mountain artillery regiments are not for general support. They will each replace one 105mm regiment for direct support. We asked Mandeep how did it make sense to have one infantry brigade supported by a 155mm regiment while the others were supported by 105mm regiments: shouldn't the medium guns to a new general support regiment? He replied that since all 105mm guns are to be replaced with 155s, this is just the start of the process.

  • We still think this is foolish. Why not have ordered 800 guns outright for 10 divisions and obtained a better price than for a bunch of smaller orders, and why not convert the entire division artillery brigades one by one?

  • Mandeep's answer was that if Editor wanted logic, he should not concern himself with the Indian Army.

  • As we are moaning, whining, and complaining, here's a gripe we forgot to mention the other day. We'd mentioned US ROAD divisions had 101 helicopters as opposed to the 88-116 the current "Combat Aviation Brigades" have. In the old days, the 101 helicopters were simply a divisional aviation battalion. Lift elements are now called "assault" helicopter whatevers. The good old Huey company had 25 helicopters, today the assault helicopter battalion has 30 helicopters. CH-47 battalions had 48 helicopters, now they have 12. If you look at the support brigades, its title inflation all the way. An artillery or engineer group, for instance, was composed of several battalions, and several groups made up a brigade. Nowadays you have no more groups, but you have "brigades" with a couple of battalions.

  • At this point you can well shake your head and say that you didn't know the Editor was so whacked out, but what attracted him to the study of the military was the systematic presence of order and method.

  • Shawn Dudley adds to his comments on US Army aviation He says the 4th Infantry (actually mechanized) Division does not have an integral Combat Aviation Brigade. Instead, the 12th CAB supports the four brigades in Germany. The new CAB will go to the 4th ID. Further, it looks like the CAB TO will change so that all CABs have one attack battalion with AH-64s and an armed scout battalion with 30 helicopters. So despite the huge amounts of money the US spends on defense, we cannot even give each division a decent punch of 48 AH-64s. Mumble grumble complain whine. The end of the world is definitely near.

  • An odd story The Indian press reports that the Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor, is eligible to retire on grounds of disability because he severely damaged his hearing while firing artillery guns on a visit to the United States. As a gunner, his interest in actually firing guns is understandable. But did he disdain protective gear? Perhaps things have changed now, but the Indian Artillery do not use protective gear. Which raises the question: shouldn't someone do a study on how this affects gun crews? Perhaps as an older person the general was more vulnerable to noise than he might have been in his younger days.

  • The general will, of course, retire on schedule this year. It would have been pointless to create confusion by leaving early. He is entitled to an additional 20% on his pension as he is considered physically handicapped.

  • We wonder if there are other cases of heads of armies being eligible on account of a disability incurred while they were army chiefs.

 

 

 

0230 GMT January 31, 2010

 

Tonight is one of discombobulation caused by existential angst, as in "Who am I, why am I on earth, what's on the other side of the mountain, why cannot I fly without mechanical apparatus', if a spaceship landed and the aliens invited me to go with them without possibility of return, could I leave my children - all grown by the way, why am I always broke, and more important, why am I always without a date on Saturday night?" It is indeed ironic that having spent one's entire life since age 13 chasing the opposite sex - now that one can chase legally, with no wife (different ones, at least)around for the first time in 43 years (not always to the same person), one finds oneself unable to chase women. Incidentally, even when Mrs. R IV was around, editor had no dates on Saturday: he stayed at home with the kid while Mrs. R. went on dates. One's patheticity is nauseating. Oh well, at least one's students find one hilariously funny.

 

  • Pakistan sending sixth division to NWFP A reader alerted us to this, and yesterday Mandeep Bajwa confirmed it. He says as yet the division is unidentified, at least by India, and no, it is not a rotation but a reinforcement.

  • No reason apparent as yet for the dispatch. Pakistan has clearly said it will conduct no further operations against the Taliban till matters stabilize (i.e., the Taliban that have been "defeated" - think Austin Powers apostrophes - openly return). In any case winter is no time to start a new campaign. Are the "bad" Taliban creating a situation that requires immediate action? We used Austin Powers apostrophes because Pakistan very much considers the "bad" Taliban to be useful assets, and certainly not to be fought, beyond making a sound and light show for the Americans and passing the hat around for another billion bucks.

  • The other divisions in the NWFP are the resident 7 and 9 (XI Corps), 19 (X Corps reserve). 37 (GHQ Reserve) and 40 (companion of 1st Armored Division in II Corps). Several brigades are in Balochistan doing what we have no idea.

  • Incidentally, as far as we know, the new lightweight howitzers India has purchased from the US are going to existing mountain divisions, one per division. The mountain divisions - as far Editor knows - have 3 x 105 light gun regiments each with 18 guns, and a 120mm mortar heavy mortar regiment. The only medium artillery at present is 130mm guns with corps artillery, usually 1-2 regiments, the others being rocket and 105mm regiments. So the arrival of the new guns, few as they are, will represent a major boost for the mountain divisions, particularly for counter-battery as well as their usual role of general fire support.

  • PRC to outlaw forced demolitions of private houses Readers will be aware of this issue which is causing widespread unrest in China. We'd mentioned it in connection with the Chinese banning the more "Avatar".

  • Problem is, forced demolition is already unlawful under existing statutes. The developers buy off the public officials and do just as they please. Why will this be different just because there's a new law?

  • More news you can do without/Oi! Leave that man alone! UK Telegraph says Italians from a national commission have sought permission to open da Vinci's grave. Why? They suspect because of his love of riddles he painted himself a woman, specifically, the Mona Lisa. They hope to be able to tell from his skull if this is the case. They will presumably create a computer reconstruction.

  • First, aren't there enough self-portraits of the Leonardo to judge his skull shape?

  • Second, what purpose does this exhumation serve? It is not as if we are trying to get details about a period lost to history. This is about satisfying someone's whim about the model for the Mona Lisa which hardly seems important enough to desecrate the man's grave.

  • Third, isn't the point of the Mona Lisa is that the lady is a mystery? Why can't we leave it at that?

  • Make sure you are cremated when you die and your ashes are scattered. No one will be able to mess with you.

  • Achtung! Fuehrer On Board! A Jewish family lost its poster collection when it was seized in 1938 by Herr Goebbels. The collection has been in a German museum. The family owning it tried to get it back. The Berlin Court of Appeals says the museum can keep it even though it is stolen property. Apparently Germany signed a 1998 convention saying restitution had to be made for art looted by the Nazis. Also, isn't Germany in contravention of UNESCO agreements?

  • How can this be anything other than anti-Semitism? 

 

0230 GMT January 30, 2010

 

  • PLAN to join NATO/EU anti-piracy patrol So far the PLAN's three warships have been operating on their own. Beijing has now agreed to put the ships under joint command. This will free up warships for patrol in other areas to which the threat has been extended.

  • The Chinese motive is said to be show the world that China is a responsible member of the international community, and to defuse growing alarm in Asia at the PLAN's expansion.

  • While the move will definitely give the PLAN good press, it will do nothing to allay the fears of Asian nations: just because China takes part in multinational operations doesn't mean it has given up, or will give up, its own national security imperatives.

  • The biggest reaction has come from India, where the Indian Navy has put underway so many new construction/acquisition programs that generalists like the Editor can no longer keep track. You now need to devote serious time to figuring out what the Indians are doing. We'll give a summary of India's major programs next week.

  • F-35s for FY 2011 will cost - gulp! - $250-million each Of course this includes all sorts of stuff like spares, but this is not the life-cycle cost by an means. It doesn't matter how darn rich you are, you can't buy a whole lot at that price.

  • For broad details of the procurement budget for FY 2011, see http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4475754&c=AME&s=AIR

  • The US Army is to create a 12th combat aviation brigade by rationalizing existing assets and begin the process of activating yet another by 2015. But when you consider that the FY 2011 budget provides just $2.6-billion for Army helicopters, and that are steady combat/combat-related losses, and a huge modernization backlog, you wonder how the present structure is to be maintained, leave alone expanded.

  • A combat aviation brigade is assigned to each division (two for 101st) and brigades range from 88 to 116 depending on type. If we recall right, the  Vietnam era ROAD divisions had 101, and that was only the start, because you had a whacking great number of helicopters outside the division. Again, if we recall right, the helicopter slice was 400 per division in Vietnam. Yes, yes, the helicopters today are much more capable than those of yesteryear, yada yada, but requirements have also escalated in major ways, yada yada. The 101st Air Division has 230+ helicopters, compared to the nearly 400 the old 1st Air Cavalry Division had. For CAB details, look at http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/military/read.main/97018/

  • Arctic ice is thinning say experts Though satellite picture show the ice is growing, much of the new buildup is new ice, which is very thin, and in many spots the thick ice has weakened. So a long term trend still needs to be established: will new ice keep being laid down or will the Arctic warm and ice start disappearing again. http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1956932,00.html

  • We mention this solely as an example of how difficult the debate over warming is, and why its best for a calm study of what's happening.

 

 

0230 GMT January 29, 2010

 

  • Israel-Mideast Human Rights Watch has rejected Hamas's claims that the militant organization attacked only Israeli military targets with its rocket and mortar attack. HRW says Hamas appears guilty of war crimes - the organization has previously condemned Israel - and asks that Hamas investigate/fix responsibility for the attacks.

  • Israel warns Syria and Lebanon of retaliation if Hezbollah attacks Israel. Lebanon because Israel holds Lebanon responsible for allowing Hezbollah to function within the country, whereas its hardly secret knowledge that if Lebanon acted against Hezbollah, the result would be civil war. Israel has already devastated Lebanon's infrastructure in the 2006 War and threatens a repeat.

  • Why Syria? Though Syria-Israel relations seem warm, Syria has supplied Hezbollah with longer-range guided missiles that leave North and Central Israel vulnerable to attacks. The UN has pushed Hezbollah out of southern most Lebanon, but it has merely moved north, and with longer range missiles can still endanger Israel. Syria has also given naval surface-to-surface missile to Hezb, thus rendering the Israeli coast vulnerable, amd also handed over SAM-2s. OK, the SAM-2 is a relatively primitive SAM by today's standards, but if Iran updates the missiles, Hezb could conceivably shoot down an Israeli fighter or two.

  • Israel looks at microsats for rapid response special missions. These would likely be fired into space by F-15s. The aim is to preserve Israel strategic assets; other these relatively few assets will have to be diverted for tactical roles. US has also been working on microsats for years; Editor knows nothing about the status of programs. Given the multi-billion dollar US satellite budget its easy to hide several microsat programs.

  • Amos 4 to feature 50-cm resolution sensor This new satellite, still to be launched, will permit finer resolution than current ones which do 70-cm.

  • Please note the increasing Indo-Israeli cooperation on satellites and launchers.

  • Pentagon submits request for 145 M-777 howitzers for India Now, for some time Editor has been talking about the Indo-US alliance against China and that this will involve US committing USAF units to India. Notch up another level of cooperation. The Pentagon statement to Congress specifically states as one of its aim increasing interoperatively between Indian and US forces. So now we're talking of US ground units entering India. We're not quite sure why they'd be needed, but there it is.

  • There has been grumbling that the M777 is rated second to the Singapore howitzer and US FMS deals are not "transparent". Har de har har. M777 is combat tested, more to the point, even if its not the best its good enough. As for "transparency", what the foreign arms companies mean is they do not get to bribe the Indians.
    Whichever Indian bureaucrat came up with the FMS route deserves a promotion and recognition. India's military modernization has been crippled because bureaucrats/generals are so scared of being accused of taking bribes that no one signs off on arms deal. But with this new government-to-government arrangement, there is no place for bribes.

  • If the Singapore company and others want to contend, then best it ask its government to do the deal.

  • International Panel on Climate Change takes another beating. The UK Telegraph says the IPCC's report on the Amazon, which says 40% of the region will see climate changed, is based on a study by two nature advocacy which was not peer reviewed. No other reference to support the IPCC's alarming conclusions has yet been found. (Thanks to reader FlyMike, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100023598/after-climategate-pachaurigate-and-glaciergate-amazongate/ )

  • This is the third strike against the IPCC, headed by the Indian environmentalist Rajendra Pachuri. Dr. Pachauri refuses to take responsibility for the wrong statements.

  • What is most alarming, is not the wrong reports. Dr. Pachauri - a railway engineer and an economist, not a scientist - apparently has connections with more corporations than can be tallied. "What has also almost entirely escaped attention, however, is how Dr Pachauri has established an astonishing worldwide portfolio of business interests with bodies which have been investing billions of dollars in organisations dependent on the IPCC’s policy recommendations." ( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6847227/Questions-over-business-deals-of-UN-climate-change-guru-Dr-Rajendra-Pachauri.html )

  • Among his business connections are banks, energy companies, and energy funds which invest in carbon treading.

  • To us, most damning is the news that in 2005 he set up a Texas company, GloriOil, which specializing in oil recovery from depleted fields. What is the big deal, you may ask? Well, the problem is that the good doctor is possibly the most visible opponent of hydrocarbons for energy. We say the most without including Mr. Al Gore, because though everyone in the US knows Mr. Gore and few know Dr. Pachauri, in the rest of the world, particularly in the international climate change sector, its the other way around.

  • The question of if climate change is happening or not is a serious one. It is not, contrary to what some believe, the most important issue facing humanity. Climate has changed all through pre-history and pre-history, and there is an excellent case to made - as the Dutch have done - that rather than trying to change a planet's climate, a project breathtaking in its hubris - we should adapt, as humans have done for tens of thousands of years.

  • The issue should be discussed and studied at length, and not be kidnapped by people with vested interests who propagandize that the end is near if we do not act as they want.

  • What Dr. Pachauri has done is discredit the climate changers. The damage he has caused is enormous, and it will only get worse as more and more people pile on to every study, looking for the minutest errors of science. We need an honest debate - as we need an honest debate on many, many other global issues. We don't need a bunch of money-hungry people doctoring - and badly at that - the science of climate change.

  • Another example of sensationalized science in 1998 a British doctor made an "unfounded" allegation that the MMR vaccine leads to autism. This led to millions of children going without MMR, and Editor at least, has not seen how many additional deaths or crippling illness that caused. Last year after a massive study US authorities say there is no link - not that that has convinced activist US parents. Now the British are considering decertifying the doctor responsible.

  • Lessons learned We could give many lesson learned from the Climate Change and MMR-Autism scandals, but we'll stick to a couple. First, in today's world people, even scientists, thinking nothing of presenting false or incorrectly interpreted data to further their agenda. We've gotten to the stage its hard to know who to trust. Second, the internet has brought about a democratization of information. We can see how easy it is to use this democratization to fool the public because now everyone can be an "expert". Third, manipulation of data lies beneath the complete breakdown of comity in the United States, which has now become United only in the sense that each and every party is free to peruse her/his partisan agenda, and does. It is the tactic of taking one little part of a complex issue, and then hammering on it to the exclusion of all other issues. The result is a breakdown of rational discussion and compromise.